In the summer, I ran a contest to predict the final stats that Tom Brady would produce in 2013. Suffice it to say, nearly everyone was much more bullish on Brady than they should have been: of the 21 contest entries, 19 of them projected Brady to finish with a better ANY/A average than what he actually produced.

The average entry predicted 603 pass attempts, 4,467 yards, 30.8 TDs, 10.4 INTs, 28 sacks, and 139 sack yards lost, for an average ANY/A of 7.09.  In reality, Brady ended the year with 628 attempts, 4,343 yards, 25 TDs, 11 INTs, 40 sacks, and 256 sack yards lost. Basically, the group over-projected his Yards per Attempt by half a yard, expected six more touchdowns, and 12 fewer sacks. Brady’s ANY/A was 6.13, nearly one full adjusted net yard below the average projection.

The winning entry goes to Joe: [continue reading…]

In 1984, Dan Marino set an NFL record with 48 touchdown passes, but his Dolphins lost in the Super Bowl. Twenty years later, Peyton Manning broke Marino’s record, but he lost to the eventual Super Bowl champion Patriots in the playoffs. In 2007, Tom Brady broke Manning’s touchdowns record, but he lost in the Super Bowl, too.

When the greatest quarterback seasons of all time are discussed, these three years dominate the discussion. And with good reason. But if you include the playoffs — and frankly, there’s no reason not to include the playoffs — which quarterback produced the greatest season of all time? I’m going to stipulate that the greatest quarterback season ever has to end in a Lombardi Trophy, because otherwise, I think we’ll end up back in the world of Marino ’84/Brady ’07/Manning ’04. Of course, now another Manning season has entered the mix: and with a Super Bowl win, Manning’s 2013 should and would be remembered as the greatest quarterback season of all time.

So, the question becomes, which season would he knock off the top rung? I think there are six seasons that stand out from the rest, based on regular and postseason performance.

Honorable Mention [continue reading…]

Someone needs to say it. I know, I know, it’s Manning/Brady XV. But someone needs to remind people that Peyton Manning threw 30 more touchdown passes than Tom Brady in 2013. He threw for over 1,000 more yards. He threw one less interception. He was sacked 22 fewer times. And did I mention that he threw 30 more touchdowns? If you’re not into stats, Brian Burke has Manning providing 5.83 extra wins this year, compared to 3.82 for Brady. At some point, the analysis should move beyond “a game between two of the greatest quarterbacks ever” and recognize these things, right?

Let’s cut off the Patriots fans before they can begin typing in Boston accents: the fact that Manning’s 2013 numbers dwarf Brady’s 2013 numbers does not mean Manning’s career >>> Brady’s career. And it doesn’t even mean (although it strongly implies) that Manning was a better quarterback in 2013 than Brady was. There’s no doubt that Denver’s supporting cast, at least on offense, is much better than New England’s. Manning has Brady’s favorite target from last year, Wes Welker, along with Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, and Julius Thomas. Brady has dealt with a very inexperienced set of receivers following massive turnover. The Patriots have had to replace Welker, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, and Danny Woodhead with Julian Edelman, 12 games worth of Danny Amendola, 8 games of Shane Vereen (although he’ll be around on Sunday), 7 games of Gronkowski (he won’t be around on Sunday), and Aaron Dobson and Kenbrell Thompkins. Each quarterback is down a star tackle (Ryan Clady, Sebastian Vollmer) but has an All-Pro caliber guard (Louis Vasquez, Logan Mankins).

But whatever the reason for the discrepancy, one conclusion is inescapable: this is not a meeting of equal passing attacks. On one hand, you have one of the greatest passing offenses ever. On the other, you have an above-average passing offense. And that’s the real story. The Broncos averaged 10 more points per game than New England, while Manning (as representative of the Denver passing attack) averaged 2.75 more adjusted net yards per attempt than Brady (as representative of the Patriots passing attack). [continue reading…]

When it comes Patriots/Colts, it’s easy to want to focus on Tom Brady vs. Andrew Luck. Or to marvel at the sheer number of star players these teams have lost in the last 12 months. If you played college in the state of Florida, you’re probably not going to be playing in this game: T.Y. Hilton is the last star standing with Vince Wilfork, Aaron Hernandez, Brandon Spikes, and Reggie Wayne gone. The Patriots also have placed Rob Gronkowski, Sebastian Vollmer, Jerod Mayo, Tommy Kelly and Adrian Wilson on injured reserve, while Devin McCourty and Alfonzo Dennard are both questionable. Also, of course, Brady is probable with a shoulder.

The Colts just put defensive starters Gregory Toler and Fili Moala on injured reserve, adding to a list that already included Wayne, Ahmad Bradshaw, Vick Ballard, Dwayne Allen, Donald Thomas, Montori Hughes, and Pat Angerer.  LaRon Landry and Darrius Heyward-Bey are both questionable, and the latter’s injury caused the team to sign ex-Patriot Deion Branch.

All the injuries and changing parts make this a pretty tough game to analyze. So I’m not going to, at least not from the usual perspective. Instead, I want to take a 30,000 foot view of the game. According to Football Outsiders, the Patriots were the most consistent team in the league this season, while the Colts were the fourth least consistent team. Rivers McCown was kind enough to send me the single-game DVOA grades for both teams this season, and I’ve placed those numbers in the graph below with the Colts in light blue and the Patriots in red. The graph displays each team’s single-game DVOA score for each game this season, depicted from worst (left) to best (right). For Indianapolis, the graph spans the full chart, from the worst game (against St. Louis) to the best (against Denver). As you can see, the portion of the graph occupied by New England is much narrower, stretching from Cincinnati to Pittsburgh. [continue reading…]

With one game remaining, Peyton Manning has already set the new single-season record with 51 passing touchdowns (two months ago, I projected Manning to finish the season with 52 touchdowns). But all records must be viewed in their environment, and NFL teams are averaging 1.58 touchdown passes per team game this year, the highest average since 1948. In 1984, the year Dan Marino threw 48 touchdowns, teams averaged 1.37 touchdown passes per game.

So which season is more impressive? That’s a complicated question, and one that could be answered in many ways. In my view, the question boils down to which performance was more outstanding; in mathematical terms, we could define that as which season was farthest from the mean.

To make life a little simpler, I’m going to analyze this question on the team level, meaning we will compare “Denver 2013” to “Miami 1984.” Of course, this approach is preferable in many ways, since when we praise Manning we really mean “Manning with his offensive line and his coaching staff throwing to Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, Eric Decker, and Julius Thomas.” And “Marino in 1984” means “Marino and Mark Clayton and Mark Duper and Dwight Stephenson and Ed Newman.”

This season, the Broncos have 51 touchdown passes. The other 31 teams (through 15 games) are averaging 22.8 passing touchdowns, which means Denver is 28.2 touchdowns above average. The standard deviation of the 32 teams in passing touchdowns is 7.4; as a result, we can say that the Broncos are 3.84 standard deviations above average, also known as their Z-score.

In 1984, the other 27 teams (through 16 games) averaged 21.0 touchdowns, while the Dolphins threw 49 scores (Jim Jenson, a college quarterback who played receiver for Miami, threw a 35-yard touchdown to Duper against the Patriots off a Marino lateral). The standard deviation that season in touchdown passes at the team level was 7.5, which gives Miami a Z-score of 3.72 in 1984.

So the Broncos this season have been more extraordinary, at least by this measure. One nice thing about using the Z-score is we don’t need to adjust for games played. I went ahead and calculated the Z-scores for every team since 1932. The current Broncos are #1, with the ’84 Dolphins in second place. The third place team isn’t the Tom Brady 2007 Patriots; that team is down at #7, because the standard deviation in passing touchdowns among the league’s 32 teams was 8.8 that season. Instead, the third slot goes to the 1986 Dolphins. Few remember that Marino threw 44 touchdowns that season; add in Don Strock’s two touchdowns, a lower league average and a smaller standard deviation, and those Dolphins get a Z-score of 3.70.

Let’s look at the top 100 teams using this metric. The 2004 Colts ranked fifth (if you click on the cell in the team column, the link takes you to that team’s PFR page) in Z-score. That year, Indianapolis threw 51 touchdowns, while the other 31 teams averaged 21.97 touchdown passes. That means Indianapolis was 29.03 touchdowns above average, the highest production above average to date. But that year, the standard deviation among the 32 teams in passing touchdowns was 8.53, giving the Colts a Z-score of “only” 3.41; that’s why they’re 5th, not first.
[continue reading…]

Every year at Footballguys.com, I publish an article called Rearview QB, which adjusts quarterback (and defense) fantasy numbers for strength of schedule. I’ve also done the same thing using ANY/A instead of fantasy points, and today I revive that concept for the 2012 season.

Let’s start with the basics. Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt is defined as (Passing Yards + 20 * Passing Touchdowns – 45 * Interceptions – Sack Yards Lost) divided by (Pass Attempts plus Sacks). ANY/A is my favorite explanatory passing statistic — it is very good at telling you the amount of value provided (or not provided) by a passer in a given game, season, or career.

Let’s start with some basic information. The league average ANY/A in 2012 was 5.93. Peyton Manning averaged 7.89 ANY/A last year, the highest rate in the league among the 39 passers with at least 75 attempts. Since the Broncos star had 583 pass attempts and 21 sacks in 2012, that means he was producing 1.96 ANY/A over league average on 604 dropbacks. That means Manning is credited with 1,185 Adjusted Net Yards above average, a metric I simply call “VALUE” in the table below. Manning led the league in that category, with Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and Matt Ryan rounding out the top five. Remember, the ANY/A and VALUE results aren’t supposed to surprise you, so it makes sense that the best quarterbacks finish near the top in this category every year.
[continue reading…]

On September 13, 2008, Doug Drinen wrote this post, which I reproduce in full below.

I’m hearing and reading a lot of crazy stuff this week.

So I just want to document my predictions that (a) the Patriots will win at least 11 games this year, (b) the Patriots will clinch the East before week 17, and (c) Matt Cassel will be a top-12 fantasy quarterback from here out.

That is all.

With the combination arrest/release of Aaron Hernandez stacked upon five surgeries in seven months for Rob Gronkowski and the departure of Wes Welker to Denver, it’s fair to say that many are wondering about the fate of the New England passing game. In addition to those three, Tom Brady is without Brandon Lloyd (free agent) and Danny Woodhead (San Diego), the fourth and fifth leading receivers on the 2012 Patriots. As Jason Lisk pointed out, that puts Brady in historically bad territory when it comes to roster turnover.

So today’s post doubles as a temperature check and a contest entry. Please predict the following for Tom Brady in 2013, based on the assumption that he is responsible for 99.4% of all Patriots pass attempts by quarterbacks for the second year in a row. To the extent he is not, I will pro-rate his numbers for purposes of judging the contest. To enter, simply copy and paste this table below in the comments and fill out each line.

Your name:
Brady’s number of pass attempts:
Brady’s number of passing yards:
Brady’s number of passing touchdowns:
Brady’s number of interceptions:
Brady’s number of sacks:
Brady’s number of sack yards lost:
Commentary:
[continue reading…]

[In case you missed it, earlier this week, I created an NFL Draft Pick Value Calculator and provided wallet-sized and iPhone-style copies of the 2013 NFL Schedule.]

I find old newspaper articles very entertaining, so I decided to see how the Boston Globe documented the selection of Tom Brady in the sixth round of the 2000 Draft.

On April 17th, the day after the draft concluded, the Globe provided a full summary of each player. Here’s how they described the 199th pick:

6, 199 – Tom Brady, QB, Michigan

A pocket passer who will compete for a practice squad spot with the Patriots . . . Drafted as a catcher by the Montreal Expos in 1995 out of Serra (San Mateo, Calif.) HS . . . Completed 62.8 percent of his passes with 20 TDs and six interceptions. Only Elvis Grbac had more TD tosses in a season for the Wolverines . . . Throws a great slant . . . At almost 6-4, 214 pounds, has some mobility . . . Platooned with sophomore Drew Henson . . . Was projected to go in the third round, but dropped quickly.

[continue reading…]

Eight years ago — almost to the day — our old PFR colleague Doug Drinen wrote a Sabernomics post about “The Manning Index”, a metric designed to roughly gauge the clutchness (or chokeitude) of a given quarterback by looking at how he did relative to expectations (he revived this concept in version two, six years ago). In a nutshell, Doug used the location of the game and the win differential of the two teams involved to establish an expected winning percentage for each quarterback in a given matchup. He then added those up across all of a quarterback’s playoff starts, and compared to the number of wins he actually had. Therefore, quarterbacks who frequently exceeded expectations in playoff games could be considered “clutch” while those who often fell short (like the Index’s namesake, Peyton Manning) might just be inveterate chokers.

Doug ran that study in the midst of the 2004-05 playoffs, so it shouldn’t be surprising that Tom Brady (who was at the time 8-0 as a playoff starter and would run it to 10-0 before ever suffering a loss) came out on top, winning 3.5 more games than you’d expect from the particulars of the games he started. Fast-forward eight years, though, and you get this list of quarterbacks who debuted after 1977:
[continue reading…]

According to the SRS, this is as lopsided as championship games get. The Patriots are 12.8 points better than average while the Ravens have an SRS of just +2.9; therefore, you’d put New England as 13-point favorites at home (in reality, they are 8-point favorites). I’ve been a Ravens skeptic for a couple of months now, and never thought they were one of the best teams in the league.

In my week 11 power rankings, when Baltimore was 8-2, I wrote: “According to Football Outsiders, Baltimore has the best special teams since 1991 through 10 weeks. Schatz tweeted that Baltimore’s the 16th best team based on just offense and defense.”

A few days later the Ravens defeated the Chargers in the famous 4th-and-29 game, which certainly didn’t change my outlook on Baltimore. Then the Ravens tanked down the stretch, seemingly fulfilling their reputation as an average team. And let’s not forget: had Ben Roethlisberger stayed healthy, it’s possible the Ravens don’t even make the playoffs. Without the 13-10 ugly win over Byron Leftwich and the Steelers, both Baltimore and Pittsburgh would have finished 9-7 with the Steelers holding the tiebreaker. To be fair, the Ravens did not compete in a meaningless week 17 game, but the point is that the Ravens were barely above-average team during the season that got a few breaks along the way.
[continue reading…]

The Best Weekend of the Year lived up to its reputation this weekend, as the divisional round of the playoffs gave us three outstanding games. Here is my reaction, with a disproportionate amount of time spent on the Denver-Baltimore game, because, well, if you saw it, you’d understand.

Baltimore 38, Denver 35

One of the best playoff games in NFL history, and an instant classic. This game could be analyzed for hours and there are countless talking points (Fox playing not to lose, Manning’s playoff failures, Ray Lewis’ retirement tour making at least one last stop, Tim Tebow anyone?) that will fill up the schedules of ESPN and talk radio for weeks. But let’s start with a big picture review of the game from the perspective of the team I expected to win the Super Bowl.

If you want to assign credit and blame to Denver, this is how I would rank the five Broncos units on Saturday, from best to worst.

1) Special teams. Sure, Matt Prater missed a long field goal, but Trindon Holliday’s two return touchdowns were a thing of beauty — especially for fans of excellent blocking. Holliday’s runs were more about textbook blocking by the return unit and poor coverage by the Ravens than Holliday himself, but in any event, the Broncos special teams had a great day. In fact, here is how Pro-Football-Reference broke down the game by unit in terms of Expected Points Added:
[continue reading…]

Yesterday, I previewed Saturday’s games with um, mixed results (skip the Denver-Baltimore preview and just read the San Francisco-Green Bay breakdown twice). Let’s take another crack at it by examining Sunday’s matchups.

Seattle Seahawks (11-5) (+1) at Atlanta Falcons (13-3), Sunday, 1:00PM ET

Once again, Atlanta is tasked with facing a dominant wildcard team. Is this the year Matt Ryan finally silences his critics?

Atlanta is only a one-point favorite, just the seventh time a home team has been given such little respect this late in the season since 2000. Home teams are 3-3 when underdogs or small favorites over that span in the divisional conference championship rounds, although one of those losses came by the Falcons in 2010 against the Packers when Atlanta was a 1.5-point favorite. But let’s focus on these two teams, because the stats might surprise you.

Russell Wilson edges Matt Ryan in Y/A (7.9 to 7.7), AY/A (8.1 to 7.7), and passer rating (100.0 to 99.1), despite having a significantly worse set of receivers. Ryan does have the edge in NY/A (7.0 to 6.8) but the two are deadlocked in ANY/A at 7.0. Both quarterbacks led four 4th quarter comebacks this year, and Wilson led 5 game-winning drives while Ryan led six. Considering one quarterback has Roddy White, Julio Jones, and Tony Gonzalez, and the other is a 5’10 rookie, I consider this pretty remarkable.
[continue reading…]

Last weekend, I looked at career rushing stats in wins and losses; today I will do the same but for quarterbacks.

I looked at all games, including playoffs, from 1960 to 2011, for all quarterbacks with at least 5,000 career passing yards over that time period. The table below lists the following information for each passer:

– His first year (or 1960, if he played before 1960) and his last year (or 2011, if still active)
– All the franchises he played for (which you can search for in the search box)
– His number of career wins, and his touchdown rate, interception rate, yards per attempt and Adjusted Yards per Attempt (which includes a 20-yard bonus for touchdown passes and a 45-yard penalty for interceptions) in wins ^[1]Unfortunately, I excluded sack data from this study due to its general unavailability for most of the covered time period.
– His number of career losses, and his touchdown rate, interception rate, yards per attempt and Adjusted Yards per Attempt in losses

The table is sorted by AY/A in wins; unsurprisingly, Aaron Rodgers — who is the career leader in that metric — tops this table, too. In fact, Rodgers is also the leader in AY/A in losses. Note that this table includes all games played by the quarterback, not just his starts.

Rk	Player	Years	Teams	PYD	Win	TD%_W	INT%_W	Y/A_W	AY/A_W	Loss	TD%_L	INT%_L	Y/A_L	AY/A_L
1	Aaron Rodgers	2005--2011	gnb	19147	49	7.6%	1.3%	8.7	8.3	27	4.3%	2.5%	7.4	6.4
2	Matt Schaub	2004--2011	atl-htx	17936	48	5.3%	1.7%	8.7	8.1	53	3.5%	3.3%	7.2	5.8
3	Tony Romo	2005--2011	dal	21666	60	6.6%	2.1%	8.7	7.9	43	4.3%	3.4%	7	5.5
4	Kurt Warner	1998--2009	ram-nyg-crd	36296	81	6.8%	2.2%	8.7	7.8	57	3.3%	4.4%	7.2	5.3
5	Daunte Culpepper	1999--2009	min-mia-rai-det	25133	45	7.1%	2.2%	8.7	7.8	64	3.3%	4%	6.9	5.1
6	Bob Berry	1965--1975	min-atl	9197	32	7.4%	2.3%	8.6	7.7	36	4.2%	7.4%	7.1	3.8
7	Steve Young	1985--1999	tam-sfo	36450	125	6.8%	1.7%	8.3	7.6	60	2.9%	4.2%	7.2	5.3
8	Philip Rivers	2004--2011	sdg	26105	69	6.2%	2.3%	8.5	7.6	39	4%	3.1%	7.3	6
9	Ben Roethlisberger	2004--2011	pit	29729	90	5.7%	2.2%	8.4	7.6	38	3.7%	4.9%	7.2	5
10	John Friesz	1990--2000	sdg-was-sea-nwe	8699	19	5%	1%	7.8	7.5	38	2.6%	4%	5.8	4
11	Bart Starr	1960--1971	gnb	22810	99	6.6%	2.9%	8.6	7.5	41	2.4%	5.9%	6.7	4.1
12	Don Meredith	1960--1968	dal	17750	51	8.5%	3.3%	8.8	7.5	50	3.5%	6%	6.2	3.6
13	Drew Brees	2001--2011	sdg-nor	43722	97	6.5%	1.7%	8	7.4	66	3.4%	3.7%	6.7	5.1
14	Ken O'Brien	1984--1993	nyj-phi	25598	56	5.8%	1.7%	8	7.4	72	2.1%	3.6%	6.3	4.7
15	J.P. Losman	2004--2011	buf-rai-mia	6271	17	5.8%	1.5%	7.9	7.4	28	2.5%	4.4%	6.1	4.1
16	Trent Green	1997--2008	was-ram-kan-mia	28794	59	5.3%	2.1%	8.2	7.3	63	3.6%	3.8%	7.1	5.5
17	Rob Johnson	1995--2003	jax-buf-tam-was-rai	5947	20	4.8%	1.5%	7.9	7.3	25	2.8%	3.6%	6.7	5.1
18	Chad Pennington	2000--2010	nyj-mia	19241	46	5.1%	1.2%	7.7	7.3	49	3.2%	4.1%	6.6	4.9
19	Boomer Esiason	1984--1997	cin-nyj-crd	38520	89	6.6%	2.4%	8.2	7.3	103	3.3%	4.4%	6.5	4.6
20	Neil Lomax	1981--1988	crd	23156	48	6.4%	2.1%	8.1	7.3	59	3%	3.3%	6.6	5.2
21	David Garrard	2002--2010	jax	16489	45	5.3%	1.4%	7.8	7.3	44	2.7%	3.4%	6.4	4.9
22	Matthew Stafford	2009--2011	det	8220	13	8.1%	1.8%	7.9	7.2	17	3.4%	4.4%	6.3	4.4
23	Joe Montana	1979--1994	sfo-kan	46323	140	6.4%	2.2%	8.1	7.2	60	2.7%	3.4%	6.3	4.9
24	Eddie LeBaron	1960--1963	dal	5331	11	12.5%	5.5%	9.4	7.2	31	4.7%	8.7%	7.1	3.3
25	Peyton Manning	1998--2010	clt	60217	150	6.3%	1.9%	8	7.2	77	3.9%	4.1%	6.9	5.2
26	Ed Brown	1960--1965	chi-pit-clt	7723	35	7.7%	5.8%	9.7	7.2	33	2.9%	8.8%	6.5	2.6
27	Wade Wilson	1981--1998	min-atl-nor-dal-rai	18605	66	6.1%	2.6%	8.3	7.2	63	2.4%	5.3%	6.2	3.9
28	Jay Cutler	2006--2011	den-chi	18637	42	6.6%	2.2%	8.1	7.2	38	2.7%	4.6%	6.5	4.5
29	Josh Freeman	2009--2011	tam	8898	17	5.6%	1.8%	7.9	7.2	24	2.8%	4.6%	6.1	4.1
30	Tom Brady	2000--2011	nwe	45264	140	6.1%	1.6%	7.8	7.2	43	3.6%	4.2%	6.3	4.5
31	Matt Moore	2007--2011	car-mia	5137	17	6.2%	1.8%	7.8	7.1	19	2.8%	5%	6.2	4
32	Chris Chandler	1988--2004	clt-tam-crd-ram-oti-atl-chi	29212	72	5.9%	2.6%	8.2	7.1	105	3.1%	4.4%	6.4	4.4
33	Len Dawson	1960--1975	cle-kan	30112	105	8.7%	3.6%	8.6	7.1	64	3.2%	6.3%	6.6	3.8
34	Joe Flacco	2008--2011	rav	15348	49	4.6%	1.2%	7.6	7.1	24	3%	4.4%	5.9	4
35	Trent Edwards	2007--2010	buf-jax	6019	14	4%	1.6%	7.7	7.1	22	2%	4.3%	5.7	3.8
36	Jeff Garcia	1999--2009	sfo-cle-det-phi-tam	26894	63	5.4%	1.3%	7.5	7.1	68	3.4%	3.1%	6.4	5.1
37	Ken Anderson	1971--1986	cin	34159	100	6.2%	2.4%	8	7.1	92	2.7%	4.7%	6.7	4.7
38	Rudy Bukich	1960--1968	pit-chi	7865	30	7.5%	3.5%	8.5	7	35	3.5%	8.6%	6	2.3
39	Troy Aikman	1989--2000	dal	36791	105	4.8%	2.1%	7.9	7	76	2.1%	4.1%	6	4.2
40	Damon Huard	1998--2008	mia-nwe-kan	6349	20	4.9%	1.1%	7.4	7	24	2%	4.3%	5.8	4
41	Jim Everett	1986--1997	ram-nor-sdg	35957	66	5.7%	2.6%	8.1	7	97	3.2%	4.2%	6.5	4.6
42	Roger Staubach	1969--1979	dal	25491	106	6.1%	2.5%	8	7	44	3.5%	6.3%	6.7	3.9
43	Bert Jones	1973--1982	clt-ram	18589	47	6.4%	3.1%	8.2	7	58	3.6%	4.6%	6.3	4.3
44	Frank Reich	1985--1998	buf-car-nyj-det	6858	39	8.8%	2.1%	7.7	7	39	3.3%	4.3%	6.3	4.4
45	Jeff Hostetler	1986--1997	nyg-rai-was	17464	70	5.5%	1.9%	7.7	7	40	2.3%	4.1%	6.3	4.5
46	Dan Fouts	1973--1987	sdg	45165	91	5.9%	3.2%	8.3	6.9	95	3.1%	5.5%	7.1	4.7
47	Bill Kenney	1980--1988	kan	17374	37	5.9%	2.5%	8	6.9	49	3.2%	4.2%	6.5	4.6
48	Y.A. Tittle	1960--1964	sfo-nyg	11542	40	8.9%	4.3%	8.7	6.9	23	2.5%	6.9%	5.7	2.7
49	Mark Brunell	1994--2011	gnb-jax-was-nor-nyj	33905	99	4.8%	1.8%	7.6	6.9	91	3.2%	2.9%	6.2	4.9
50	Aaron Brooks	2000--2006	nor-rai	20822	41	5.8%	1.6%	7.5	6.9	54	3.3%	4.1%	6.4	4.7
51	Patrick Ramsey	2002--2008	was-nyj-den	5929	16	5.2%	2.3%	7.8	6.9	24	3.1%	3.8%	5.8	4.2
52	Scott Mitchell	1992--2001	mia-det-rav-cin	15925	40	6%	2.1%	7.7	6.9	45	2.6%	4.6%	5.9	3.9
53	Randy Wright	1984--1988	gnb	7106	12	5.4%	3.4%	8.3	6.9	33	2.2%	5.5%	5.9	3.5
54	Rich Gannon	1987--2004	min-was-kan-rai	30434	91	5.5%	1.5%	7.4	6.9	71	3%	3.6%	6.2	4.6
55	Earl Morrall	1960--1976	det-nyg-clt-mia	17529	92	7.9%	4.8%	8.9	6.9	44	4.2%	6.9%	6.6	3.6
56	Sonny Jurgensen	1960--1974	phi-was	31546	74	7.7%	3.9%	8.4	6.9	79	4.5%	4.9%	6.8	4.7
57	Steve DeBerg	1978--1998	sfo-den-tam-kan-mia-atl	34752	72	5.4%	2.3%	7.8	6.9	114	3.2%	4.9%	6.4	4.2
58	Steve Beuerlein	1988--2003	rai-dal-crd-jax-car-den	24317	64	5.6%	2.3%	7.8	6.8	66	3.4%	4.2%	6.8	5
59	Fran Tarkenton	1961--1978	min-nyg	48806	131	6.8%	2.8%	8	6.8	117	3.6%	5.5%	6.5	4.1
60	John Brodie	1960--1973	sfo	30783	78	6.7%	3.3%	8.2	6.8	79	3.3%	6%	6.1	3.5
61	Doug Flutie	1986--2005	chi-nwe-buf-sdg	15209	48	5.2%	2.4%	7.8	6.8	45	2.9%	3.9%	6	4.3
62	Johnny Unitas	1960--1973	clt-sdg	32335	107	6.3%	3.8%	8.4	6.8	59	2.7%	7.3%	6.5	3.2
63	Joe Namath	1965--1977	nyj-ram	28299	68	6.4%	4%	8.5	6.8	71	3.3%	6.8%	6.5	3.5
64	Matt Ryan	2008--2011	atl	14832	43	6.1%	1.9%	7.5	6.8	22	2.4%	3%	6.1	4.8
65	Craig Erickson	1992--1997	tam-clt-mia	7625	18	4.8%	2.7%	7.9	6.8	34	3.2%	3.9%	6.5	4.8
66	Marc Bulger	2002--2009	ram	23758	42	4.9%	2.6%	7.8	6.8	57	3.1%	3.3%	6.8	5.4
67	Matt Cassel	2005--2011	nwe-kan	11769	42	5.1%	2%	7.6	6.8	30	3.5%	3.3%	5.7	4.3
68	Tom Flores	1960--1969	rai-buf-kan	11960	40	8.3%	3.8%	8.3	6.8	44	2.8%	6.7%	5.7	2.8
69	Phil Simms	1979--1993	nyg	35141	102	5.3%	2.5%	7.7	6.7	72	3%	4.3%	6.4	4.6
70	Derek Anderson	2006--2011	cle-crd-car	9148	21	5.5%	2.4%	7.7	6.7	32	2.7%	4.6%	5.7	3.6
71	Michael Vick	2001--2011	atl-phi	18889	65	5.8%	2.4%	7.7	6.7	51	2.8%	3.4%	6.3	4.9
72	Brett Favre	1991--2010	atl-gnb-nyj-min	77693	201	6.3%	2.2%	7.6	6.7	125	3.2%	4.9%	6.4	4.3
73	Craig Morton	1965--1982	dal-nyg-den	29143	118	6.7%	3.7%	8.2	6.7	82	2.6%	6.5%	6.2	3.4
74	Steve Pelluer	1985--1990	dal-kan	6870	17	3.3%	2.2%	7.6	6.7	26	2.9%	4.7%	6.9	4.8
75	Dan Marino	1983--1999	mia	65871	155	5.7%	2.4%	7.7	6.7	105	4.1%	3.9%	6.8	5.1
76	Donovan McNabb	1999--2011	phi-was-min	40859	106	5.4%	2%	7.4	6.7	74	2.9%	2.6%	6.1	5
77	Dave Krieg	1980--1998	sea-kan-det-crd-chi-oti	40042	113	6.7%	3%	7.9	6.7	98	3%	4.4%	6.5	4.5
78	Warren Moon	1984--2000	oti-min-sea-kan	52195	108	5.5%	2.6%	7.7	6.6	110	3.1%	4.2%	6.8	4.9
79	Jim Kelly	1986--1996	buf	39330	110	6.1%	3.2%	8	6.6	67	3.1%	4.6%	6.6	4.6
80	John Hadl	1962--1977	sdg-ram-gnb-oti	33941	103	7%	3.7%	8.2	6.6	92	3.3%	7.8%	6.1	2.7
81	Bernie Kosar	1985--1996	cle-dal-mia	25254	67	4.8%	1.9%	7.4	6.6	66	3.1%	3.4%	6.6	5.1
82	Jake Delhomme	1999--2011	nor-car-cle-htx	22822	65	5.5%	2.9%	7.8	6.6	45	3.1%	4.2%	6.6	4.8
83	Vince Evans	1977--1995	chi-rai	9511	37	7.1%	3.8%	8.2	6.6	57	2.4%	6%	6.3	3.6
84	John Elway	1983--1998	den	56439	163	5%	2.6%	7.7	6.6	92	2.8%	3.9%	6.3	4.6
85	Drew Bledsoe	1993--2006	nwe-buf-dal	45946	102	5.1%	1.9%	7.4	6.6	99	2.4%	4.2%	5.9	4
86	Jason Campbell	2006--2011	was-rai	14417	32	3.8%	1.7%	7.3	6.6	39	3.3%	2.7%	6.4	5.3
87	Pete Liske	1964--1972	nyj-den-phi	5170	16	7%	2.6%	7.6	6.6	23	2.2%	8.2%	5.9	2.3
88	Jeff George	1990--2001	clt-atl-rai-min-was	28603	48	5.5%	2.7%	7.7	6.6	85	3.2%	2.9%	6.6	5.4
89	Alex Smith	2005--2011	sfo	13038	33	4.4%	1.1%	7	6.6	39	2.9%	4.3%	6	4.1
90	Jim Zorn	1976--1987	sea-gnb-tam	21249	52	4.9%	2.9%	7.8	6.6	68	2.8%	5.4%	6.1	3.7
91	Lynn Dickey	1971--1985	oti-gnb	23914	52	6.5%	4.4%	8.4	6.6	76	3.5%	6.6%	7	4.1
92	Jon Kitna	1997--2011	sea-cin-det-dal	30104	56	5.7%	2%	7.4	6.6	86	2.8%	4.7%	6.3	4.3
93	Eric Hipple	1981--1989	det	11009	30	6.3%	3%	7.8	6.6	36	1.8%	5.5%	6.4	4
94	Bob Griese	1967--1980	mia	26559	108	7.4%	3.9%	8.1	6.5	62	3.5%	6.4%	6.4	3.5
95	Chris Miller	1987--1999	atl-ram-den	19789	37	5.7%	2.4%	7.5	6.5	63	3.6%	4.2%	6.3	4.5
96	Gus Frerotte	1994--2008	was-det-den-cin-min-mia-ram	21666	58	5.1%	2.7%	7.6	6.5	60	2.5%	4.1%	6.2	4.4
97	Matt Hasselbeck	1999--2011	gnb-sea-oti	35891	91	5.1%	2.4%	7.5	6.5	80	3%	3.4%	6.3	4.8
98	Tarvaris Jackson	2006--2011	min-sea	7239	27	4.5%	3.1%	7.8	6.5	23	2.8%	3.4%	5.8	4.3
99	Jeff Blake	1992--2005	nyj-cin-nor-rav-crd-phi-chi	21711	42	5.1%	2.1%	7.4	6.5	77	3.6%	3.6%	6.3	4.7
100	Tony Eason	1983--1990	nwe-nyj	11703	35	5.1%	2.8%	7.7	6.5	31	3.3%	3.4%	6.7	5.2
101	Jim Harbaugh	1987--2000	chi-clt-rav-sdg	27194	78	4.8%	2.1%	7.3	6.5	93	2.3%	3.6%	6.2	4.6
102	Don Majkowski	1987--1996	gnb-clt-det	12906	34	4.8%	2.8%	7.7	6.5	43	2.6%	4.2%	6	4.2
103	Gary Hogeboom	1982--1989	dal-clt-crd	9598	31	5.1%	2.6%	7.5	6.5	28	2.7%	6.1%	6.7	4
104	Joe Theismann	1974--1985	was	26988	95	6%	2.8%	7.6	6.5	59	2.4%	5.1%	6.3	4.1
105	Randall Cunningham	1985--2001	phi-min-dal-rav	32405	98	6.1%	2.6%	7.6	6.5	73	3.1%	3.6%	6.3	4.7
106	Byron Leftwich	2003--2010	jax-atl-pit-tam	10439	30	5%	1.6%	7.1	6.5	31	2.6%	3.5%	6.2	4.7
107	Tony Banks	1996--2005	ram-rav-was-htx	15315	43	5.2%	2.2%	7.4	6.5	52	2%	3.7%	5.9	4.3
108	Bobby Hebert	1985--1996	nor-atl	22331	63	5.2%	3%	7.7	6.5	55	3.5%	5%	6.2	4.1
109	Greg Landry	1968--1984	det-clt-chi	16100	55	6.7%	3.9%	8.1	6.5	65	2.5%	4.7%	6.3	4.2
110	Eli Manning	2004--2011	nyg	30095	77	5.5%	2.2%	7.3	6.4	54	3.7%	4.5%	6.7	4.7
111	Jay Fiedler	1998--2005	min-jax-mia-nyj	12499	50	5%	2.6%	7.5	6.4	29	2.5%	5.9%	6	3.4
112	Stan Humphries	1989--1997	was-sdg	18538	55	4.4%	2.3%	7.4	6.4	39	2.2%	5.1%	5.9	3.7
113	Jim Plunkett	1971--1986	nwe-sfo-rai	28175	85	5.6%	3.4%	7.9	6.4	82	3.2%	7.1%	6.4	3.2
114	Elvis Grbac	1994--2001	sfo-kan-rav	17492	61	4.8%	2.4%	7.4	6.4	39	3.1%	4.4%	6.2	4.3
115	Richard Todd	1976--1985	nyj-nor	21636	51	5.2%	3.6%	7.9	6.4	70	3.2%	7%	6.2	3.1
116	Steve Grogan	1975--1990	nwe	27457	80	6.7%	4.3%	8.2	6.4	71	3.5%	7.2%	6.8	3.6
117	Frank Ryan	1960--1970	ram-cle-was	15833	66	9.3%	4.4%	8.2	6.4	42	4%	6.1%	6.6	3.9
118	Carson Palmer	2004--2011	cin-rai	25659	50	5.9%	2.9%	7.6	6.4	59	3.8%	3.5%	6.9	5.3
119	Shaun Hill	2005--2011	min-sfo-det	6209	18	5.5%	1.8%	7.1	6.4	16	3.2%	2.8%	6.3	5.1
120	Mark Rypien	1988--2001	was-cle-ram-phi-clt	20249	58	5.7%	3.3%	7.7	6.4	47	2.9%	3.6%	6.5	4.9
121	Bubby Brister	1986--2000	pit-phi-nyj-den-min	14801	47	5.7%	2.3%	7.3	6.4	51	1.9%	4.3%	5.9	3.9
122	Kerry Collins	1995--2011	car-nor-nyg-rai-oti-clt	42478	92	4.4%	2.1%	7.2	6.4	113	2.7%	4%	6.1	4.3
123	Steve McNair	1995--2007	oti-rav	33068	100	4.6%	2.1%	7.2	6.4	72	2.6%	3.4%	6.4	4.9
124	Charlie Batch	1998--2011	det-pit	10610	40	5.2%	2.8%	7.5	6.3	37	3.1%	3.4%	6.6	5.1
125	Bill Nelsen	1963--1972	pit-cle	15004	46	6.5%	4.1%	8	6.3	43	3%	7.2%	6.5	3.4
126	Charley Johnson	1961--1975	crd-oti-den	24410	68	7.3%	4.7%	8.3	6.3	70	3%	5.9%	6.3	3.6
127	Steve Bartkowski	1975--1986	atl-ram	24916	60	5.9%	3.1%	7.6	6.3	73	3.5%	5.2%	6.5	4.3
128	Sam Bradford	2010--2011	ram	5676	8	4.1%	1.5%	6.9	6.3	18	1.9%	2.5%	5.6	4.5
129	Gary Danielson	1977--1988	det-cle	14000	42	4.9%	2.9%	7.5	6.3	43	3.5%	5.3%	6.7	4.4
130	Brian Sipe	1974--1983	cle	23896	60	6%	3.2%	7.6	6.3	62	3%	5.4%	6.2	3.8
131	Jay Schroeder	1985--1994	was-rai-cin-crd	20854	71	5.2%	2.7%	7.4	6.3	50	2.7%	5.3%	6.6	4.3
132	Virgil Carter	1968--1976	chi-cin-sdg	5127	21	5.7%	3%	7.5	6.3	24	2.1%	4.7%	5.6	3.5
133	Tommy Kramer	1977--1990	min-nor	25651	64	5.9%	2.8%	7.4	6.3	66	2.9%	5.7%	6.2	3.7
134	Brad Johnson	1994--2008	min-was-tam-dal	30457	102	4.6%	2.1%	7.1	6.2	70	2.9%	3.9%	6.2	4.5
135	Kelly Holcomb	1995--2007	tam-clt-cle-buf-min	6453	9	5.5%	3.4%	7.7	6.2	29	4%	4.5%	6.5	4.6
136	Quincy Carter	2001--2004	dal-nyj	6491	20	4.7%	2.2%	7.1	6.2	18	1.8%	5.3%	5.9	3.5
137	Ryan Fitzpatrick	2005--2011	ram-cin-buf	10936	22	6.2%	2.4%	7.2	6.2	34	2.9%	4.5%	5.9	3.9
138	Neil O'Donnell	1991--2003	pit-nyj-cin-oti	23399	72	5%	2%	7	6.2	58	2.5%	2.3%	6.3	5.4
139	James Harris	1969--1979	buf-ram-sdg	8479	44	5.8%	4.2%	8	6.2	34	1.8%	6.6%	6	3.1
140	Brian Griese	1998--2008	den-mia-tam-chi	19440	53	5.2%	2.8%	7.4	6.2	40	3.3%	4.2%	6.6	4.7
141	Terry Bradshaw	1970--1983	pit	31822	125	7%	4.3%	8	6.2	62	3%	7.3%	6.1	2.9
142	Bill Munson	1964--1979	ram-det-sea-sdg-buf	12940	41	6.4%	2.6%	7.2	6.2	58	2.8%	5%	6.1	3.9
143	Steve Tensi	1966--1970	sdg-den	5558	15	8.5%	4.4%	8	6.1	29	3.5%	5.7%	5.8	3.3
144	Jeff Kemp	1981--1991	ram-sfo-sea-phi	6403	28	6.7%	2.9%	7.3	6.1	26	1.9%	5.5%	6.3	3.8
145	Ty Detmer	1993--2001	gnb-phi-sfo-cle-det	6499	18	4.9%	2.5%	7.1	6.1	24	2.7%	4.6%	6.5	4.4
146	Billy Wade	1960--1966	ram-chi	11390	34	6.1%	3.5%	7.6	6.1	33	3.8%	6.3%	6.4	3.7
147	Dave M. Brown	1992--2000	nyg-crd	10304	29	4.1%	2.5%	7.2	6.1	42	1.9%	4.2%	5.8	4
148	Mark Sanchez	2009--2011	nyj	10364	30	5.1%	2%	6.9	6.1	22	2.9%	5%	6.2	4
149	Joe Ferguson	1973--1990	buf-det-tam-clt	30631	83	6.4%	3.1%	7.4	6.1	107	3%	5.8%	6.1	3.5
150	Norm Snead	1961--1976	was-phi-min-nyg-sfo	30797	57	6.9%	4.3%	7.9	6.1	114	3.5%	6.7%	6.7	3.7
151	Dennis Shaw	1970--1975	buf-crd	6347	12	5.9%	5.3%	8.4	6.1	34	2.8%	8.1%	6.5	2.9
152	Vince Ferragamo	1977--1986	ram-buf-gnb	12564	35	7.1%	3.7%	7.6	6.1	42	2.9%	7.1%	6.5	3.4
153	Jake Plummer	1997--2006	crd-den	30593	74	4.7%	2.5%	7.1	6.1	75	2.9%	4.8%	6.4	4.3
154	Tommy Maddox	1992--2005	den-ram-nyg-pit	8754	27	5.9%	3.2%	7.4	6.1	28	2.6%	5.3%	6.1	3.7
155	Daryle Lamonica	1963--1974	buf-rai	21082	104	7.8%	4.6%	8	6.1	37	3%	7.3%	6	2.8
156	Kyle Orton	2005--2011	chi-den-kan	14532	36	4.5%	1.9%	6.8	6.1	35	3%	3.1%	6.4	5
157	Roman Gabriel	1962--1977	ram-phi	29780	87	5.7%	2.6%	7.1	6.1	79	3.2%	4%	5.8	4.1
158	Bob Lee	1969--1980	min-atl-ram	5416	60	5.9%	4.8%	8.1	6.1	24	1.2%	6.2%	5	2.3
159	David Carr	2002--2010	htx-car-nyg-sfo	14433	32	3.4%	2.2%	7	6.1	61	2.7%	3.4%	6.2	4.7
160	Jack Trudeau	1986--1995	clt-nyj-car	10494	25	3.2%	2.4%	7.1	6	43	2.3%	5.2%	5.8	3.5
161	Steve Fuller	1979--1986	kan-chi	7454	33	4%	3.5%	7.5	6	29	1.9%	4%	6.2	4.5
162	Danny White	1976--1988	dal	24243	124	5.8%	4%	7.7	6	59	4%	5.3%	6.7	4.4
163	Archie Manning	1971--1984	nor-oti-min	23911	37	4.4%	3.2%	7.4	6	110	3.1%	5.1%	6.3	4.1
164	Ken Stabler	1970--1984	rai-oti-nor	30579	110	6.6%	4.6%	7.9	6	64	3%	7.3%	6.5	3.3
165	Doug Williams	1978--1989	tam-was	18108	49	5.4%	2.8%	7.2	6	45	3.1%	4.8%	6.5	4.4
166	Joe Pisarcik	1977--1984	nyg-phi	5552	25	4.6%	4.1%	7.8	6	32	2.1%	5.7%	5.7	3.1
167	Jim McMahon	1982--1996	chi-sdg-phi-min-crd-gnb	19260	86	4.5%	3.3%	7.4	6	40	2.6%	3.8%	6.4	4.8
168	Milt Plum	1960--1969	cle-det-ram-nyg	13335	46	6.9%	4.9%	8.1	6	40	3.1%	6%	6.3	3.7
169	Ron Jaworski	1974--1989	ram-phi-mia-kan	29859	89	5.4%	2.9%	7.2	6	79	3.4%	4.8%	6.5	4.4
170	Rodney Peete	1989--2004	det-dal-phi-was-car	16636	55	4.3%	3.4%	7.5	6	48	2.2%	4.3%	6.5	4.6
171	Vinny Testaverde	1987--2007	tam-cle-rav-nyj-dal-nwe-car	47553	102	5.3%	3.1%	7.3	6	137	3.3%	4.5%	6.7	4.7
172	Billy Kilmer	1961--1978	sfo-nor-was	21555	88	6.7%	3.7%	7.5	6	81	3.3%	5.9%	6.1	3.5
173	Tim Couch	1999--2003	cle	11131	22	5.5%	3.2%	7.3	6	40	2.7%	4.3%	6	4.1
174	Erik Kramer	1987--1999	atl-det-chi-sdg	16336	38	4.9%	2.4%	7	6	48	3.4%	4.1%	6.5	4.7
175	Trent Dilfer	1994--2007	tam-rav-sea-cle-sfo	21489	68	5.3%	2.7%	7.1	6	65	2%	5.1%	6	3.7
176	Mike Pagel	1982--1993	clt-cle-ram	9593	22	4.5%	2.6%	7.1	6	53	2.9%	4.9%	6	3.8
177	Kordell Stewart	1995--2005	pit-chi-rav	15490	76	3.5%	2.1%	6.8	5.9	54	2.7%	5.6%	5.5	3
178	Chad Henne	2008--2011	mia	7114	14	3.6%	1.7%	6.6	5.9	20	2.4%	4.6%	6.7	4.7
179	Jim Hart	1966--1984	crd-was	35156	93	5.7%	4%	7.6	5.9	103	2.9%	5.5%	6.2	3.8
180	Vince Young	2006--2011	oti-phi	9102	35	4.5%	3%	7.1	5.9	27	2.2%	4.9%	6.5	4.3
181	Josh McCown	2002--2011	crd-det-rai-car-chi	6998	15	4.2%	1.6%	6.5	5.9	36	2.9%	5.2%	6.2	3.9
182	Mark Malone	1981--1989	pit-sdg-nyj	10733	29	6.3%	3%	7.1	5.8	44	2.3%	5.9%	5.8	3.2
183	Babe Parilli	1960--1969	rai-nwe-nyj	18778	64	7.1%	4.1%	7.5	5.8	47	3.2%	7.5%	5.9	2.5
184	Don Strock	1974--1988	mia-cle	5913	37	7.1%	3.6%	7.3	5.8	30	4.5%	7.3%	6.6	3.3
185	Dick Wood	1962--1966	sdg-nyj-rai-mia	7153	17	7.1%	3.4%	7.2	5.8	28	2.6%	7.3%	5.3	2.1
186	Shaun King	1999--2004	tam-crd	5057	19	5.9%	2.3%	6.7	5.8	16	1.1%	4.1%	5.5	3.7
187	Pat Haden	1976--1981	ram	10024	41	4.4%	2.9%	7	5.8	26	3.1%	7.1%	6.4	3.3
188	Bobby Douglass	1969--1978	chi-sdg-nor-gnb	6493	16	6.2%	3.5%	7.2	5.8	57	2.1%	5.8%	5.1	2.5
189	Cotton Davidson	1960--1968	kan-rai	11451	30	6.5%	4.1%	7.5	5.7	40	2.9%	7.2%	6.3	3.1
190	Steve Bono	1985--1999	min-pit-sfo-kan-gnb-ram-car	10576	49	4.6%	1.8%	6.4	5.7	26	2.5%	3.7%	5.7	4.1
191	Marc Wilson	1980--1990	rai-nwe	14526	39	5.8%	4%	7.4	5.7	42	2.8%	5.8%	6.5	3.9
192	Billy Joe Tolliver	1989--1999	sdg-atl-oti-kan-nor	10760	24	5%	2.6%	6.8	5.7	53	3%	4.1%	6.1	4.4
193	Rick Mirer	1993--2003	sea-chi-nyj-sfo-rai	11969	27	3.9%	2.4%	6.6	5.6	52	1.8%	4.4%	5.5	3.5
194	Steve Ramsey	1970--1976	nor-den	6437	23	5.4%	5.9%	8.1	5.6	28	2.4%	6.5%	6.3	3.4
195	Jacky Lee	1960--1969	oti-den-kan	6191	30	9%	7%	8.5	5.5	29	4%	6.9%	6.6	3.6
196	Hugh Millen	1987--1995	ram-atl-nwe-den	6440	8	2.3%	4.2%	7.4	5.5	30	2.4%	3.6%	6.8	5.2
197	Jim Ninowski	1960--1969	det-cle-was-nor	6953	33	4.3%	4.5%	7.5	5.5	27	2.6%	7.4%	6.2	2.9
198	Dave Wilson	1981--1988	nor	7007	16	4.2%	5.2%	7.8	5.5	37	3.1%	5.5%	6.2	3.8
199	Kyle Boller	2003--2011	rav-ram-rai	8931	30	4.1%	1.7%	6.2	5.5	36	2.6%	4.7%	5.7	3.6
200	Joey Harrington	2002--2007	det-mia-atl	14693	27	4.4%	2.2%	6.4	5.5	55	2.5%	3.8%	5.5	3.9
201	Todd Blackledge	1983--1989	kan-pit	5366	22	5.2%	3.4%	6.9	5.5	22	1.7%	5.2%	5.3	2.9
202	Mike Tomczak	1985--1999	chi-gnb-cle-pit	16963	79	3.8%	3.9%	7.1	5.5	59	3.4%	5.3%	6.6	4.2
203	Mike Livingston	1968--1979	kan	11295	37	4.4%	3.2%	6.8	5.5	52	2.4%	5.7%	6.2	3.7
204	Danny Kanell	1996--2003	nyg-atl-den	5328	14	5.3%	2.5%	6.5	5.5	25	2.2%	4%	4.9	3.2
205	Steve Dils	1980--1988	min-ram-atl	5816	18	3.5%	2.6%	6.5	5.4	29	2.4%	3.6%	5.7	4.1
206	Jack Thompson	1979--1984	cin-tam	5329	15	5.3%	1.8%	6.1	5.4	30	3.5%	6.2%	6.3	3.6
207	Kent Graham	1992--2001	nyg-crd-pit-was	7801	27	4.4%	1.6%	6	5.4	33	1.8%	3.1%	5.7	4.3
208	David Woodley	1980--1985	mia-pit	9203	38	4.4%	3.5%	6.9	5.4	24	3%	7.4%	6.3	3.1
209	Randy Johnson	1966--1976	atl-nyg-was-gnb	8329	14	7.8%	4.4%	7.2	5.4	58	3.2%	7.6%	6.3	3
210	Rex Grossman	2003--2011	chi-htx-was	11015	30	4.7%	3.3%	6.8	5.4	27	2.3%	4.3%	6.2	4.3
211	Jim Miller	1995--2002	pit-chi	6410	20	3.9%	2.9%	6.6	5.3	18	3%	3.2%	5.6	4.3
212	Dan Pastorini	1971--1983	oti-rai-ram-phi	19469	62	4.6%	4.2%	7.1	5.3	81	2.5%	6.1%	5.4	2.7
213	Paul McDonald	1980--1984	cle	5550	12	3.8%	3.4%	6.8	5.3	23	2.8%	5.1%	7	4.7
214	George Blanda	1960--1975	oti-rai	22029	142	8.4%	6%	7.8	5.3	79	3.9%	8%	6.1	2.5
215	Jack Kemp	1960--1969	sdg-buf	22256	71	4.6%	5.2%	7.5	5.2	46	2.2%	7.1%	6.2	3
216	David Whitehurst	1977--1983	gnb	6205	21	6.1%	5.3%	7.4	5.1	30	1.1%	5.4%	5.7	3.3
217	Zeke Bratkowski	1960--1971	chi-ram-gnb	8005	30	4.7%	5.5%	7.5	5.1	45	3.5%	8.9%	6.6	2.7
218	Steve Spurrier	1967--1976	sfo-tam	6878	48	6.4%	4.9%	7.1	5.1	53	2.2%	5.2%	5.4	3.1
219	Joe Kapp	1967--1970	min-nwe	6746	26	6.6%	6.2%	7.7	5.1	26	2.2%	8.1%	5.7	2.1
220	Bob Avellini	1975--1984	chi	7288	30	4.2%	5.9%	7.5	5	36	2.3%	6.8%	5.7	2.7
221	Frank Tripucka	1960--1963	den	7676	13	5.1%	5.9%	7.5	5	29	3.3%	6.7%	5.2	2.3
222	Pete Beathard	1964--1973	kan-oti-crd-ram	8544	40	4.5%	5.3%	7.2	4.9	34	2.5%	7.3%	5.6	2.4
223	Gary Cuozzo	1963--1972	clt-nor-min-crd	7688	47	4.6%	3.9%	6.5	4.9	35	2.9%	5.7%	6	3.5
224	Al Dorow	1960--1962	nyj-buf	5732	14	5.7%	5%	6.9	4.8	18	4.7%	8.5%	5.8	2.1
225	Steve Walsh	1989--1999	dal-nor-chi-ram-tam-clt	8248	27	3.9%	3.2%	6.2	4.8	34	2.4%	4.5%	5.9	3.9
226	Mike Phipps	1970--1981	cle-chi	10806	50	4.5%	3.7%	6.4	4.8	51	1.7%	8.4%	5.3	1.6
227	Scott Brunner	1980--1985	nyg-crd	6843	16	3.7%	3.7%	6.3	4.7	29	3%	5.8%	6.2	3.6
228	Jack Concannon	1964--1975	phi-chi-gnb-det	6270	27	4.6%	4.3%	6.5	4.6	32	2.5%	6.8%	5.1	2.1
229	Mike Taliaferro	1964--1972	nyj-nwe-buf	5241	19	8.2%	4.7%	6.3	4.4	41	2.2%	7.2%	5.1	1.9

[continue reading…]

After posting about SRS-style quarterback ratings on Monday, I was thinking about other things we can do with game-by-game data like that. In his QBGOAT series, Chase likes to compare QBs to the league average, which makes a lot of sense for all-time ratings — you want to reward guys who are at least above-average in a ranking like that. However, if we want seasonal value, perhaps average is too high a baseline.

Over at Football Outsiders, Aaron Schatz has always compared to “replacement level”, borrowing a concept from baseball. I like that approach, but replacement level can be hard to empirically determine. So for the purposes of this post, I wanted to come up with a quick-and-dirty baseline to which we can compare QBs.

To that end, I looked at all players who were not their team’s primary passer in each game since 2010. Weighted by recency and the number of dropbacks by each passer, they performed at roughly a 4.4 Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt level. This is not necessarily the replacement level, but it does seem to be the “bench level” — i.e., the ANYPA you could expect from a backup-caliber QB across the league.

Using 4.4 ANYPA as the baseline, we get the following values for 2012:

If we weigh each game by how recent the results took place, we get this list:

This kind of thing isn’t exactly the most advanced stat in the world, but it’s pretty good if you want to sort QBs into general groups based on how good they are (the assumption being that a player who never plays is implicitly a bench-level player by definition).

[UPDATE: There was an error earlier in this post. I believe it is fixed now.]

On Sunday Night, the Patriots trailed 31-3 halfway through the third quarter. But that’s when Tom Brady got hot, and New England tied the game with 6:43 left in the 4th quarter. At that moment, many fans probably had visions of the Oilers-Bills playoff game, where Buffalo came back from a 32-point deficit to win.

And while there are a lot of famous comebacks, the failed comeback is much less memorable. But in fact, this was the 4th time a team trailed by 28 points in the game only to tie or take the lead in the 4th quarter… but ultimately lose.

The table below shows all games prior to 2012 where a team trailed by at least 21 points, was trailing entering the 4th quarter, came back to tie or take the lead in the 4th quarter, but then still lost. The table is listed from the perspective of the eventual winner and shows the final points for and points allowed in the game, along with the biggest lead and the largest fourth-quarter deficit the winning team faced despite the large early lead.

Note that this excludes games this game between Green Bay and Pittsburgh from 1951, where the Packers held a 28-point lead and won, but actually trailed entering the 4th quarter.

If there was one thing you can count on in New England, it’s that the Patriots passing attack would be more efficient than their opponent’s nearly every week. From 2003 to 2011, New England averaged 6.9 net yards per pass attempt while their defense allowed 6.0 NY/A. But this season, the Patriots passing offense is struggling by New England standards while the pass defense is worse than ever. Take a look: ^[1]Note that the table below lists team passing yards, which already deducts sack yardage lost

Year	Att	Yds	Sk	Opp_Att	Opp_Yds	Opp_Sk	NY/A	NY/A A	Diff
2012	243	1758	13	219	1733	11	6.9	7.5	-0.7
2011	612	5084	32	619	4703	40	7.9	7.1	0.8
2010	507	3847	25	611	4136	36	7.2	6.4	0.8
2009	592	4436	18	512	3355	31	7.3	6.2	1.1
2008	536	3569	46	474	3219	31	6.1	6.4	-0.2
2007	586	4731	21	526	3041	47	7.8	5.3	2.5
2006	527	3400	29	518	3203	44	6.1	5.7	0.4
2005	564	4120	28	527	3703	33	7	6.6	0.3
2004	485	3588	26	538	3400	45	7	5.8	1.2
2003	537	3432	32	618	3232	41	6	4.9	1.1
2002	605	3577	31	531	3179	34	5.6	5.6	0
2001	482	3089	46	546	3497	41	5.9	6	-0.1
2000	565	3181	48	544	3522	29	5.2	6.1	-1

Playing the Jets on Sunday is the perfect medicine for a NY/A-imbalance, but what do you make of New England’s struggles this year?

On Wednesday, I explained the methodology for grading each quarterback in each season. Yesterday, I came up with an all-time career list of the best quarterbacks based on their regular season play. Today, a look at playoff performances.

Using the same formula, we can grade each quarterback in each game and adjust for era ^[1]Note that I do not have individual playoff sack data prior to 2008, so I am using pro-rated sack numbers based on team sack data.. However, it should be obvious that the sample sizes here are incredibly small, and the stats are even less likely to tell the true story when looking at just one game. Strength of schedule becomes a significant factor here, as well. But, caveats aside, there’s a lot we can do with playoff data. For example, we can rank every quarterback performance in Super Bowl history:

Rk	QB	Tm	Opp	SB	W/L	Att	Pyd	TD	INT	CY	CYP	VAL
1	Joe Montana	SFO	MIA	19	W	35	331	3	0	406	11	272
2	Steve Young	SFO	SDG	29	W	36	325	6	0	431	11.1	264
3	Troy Aikman	DAL	BUF	27	W	30	273	4	0	381	12.3	258
4	Joe Montana	SFO	DEN	24	W	29	297	5	0	397	13.3	256
5	Kurt Warner	STL	TEN	34	W	45	414	2	0	447	9.7	225
6	Jim Plunkett	OAK	PHI	15	W	21	261	3	0	320	14.5	219
7	Phil Simms	NYG	DEN	21	W	25	268	3	0	323	12.4	216
8	Doug Williams	WAS	DEN	22	W	29	340	4	1	358	11.6	211
9	John Elway	DEN	ATL	33	W	29	336	1	1	331	11	181
10	Jim McMahon	CHI	NWE	20	W	20	256	0	0	284	11.6	174
11	Joe Montana	SFO	CIN	23	W	36	357	2	0	351	9	165
12	Jake Delhomme	CAR	NWE	38	L	33	323	3	0	325	8.8	146
13	Tom Brady	NWE	CAR	38	W	48	354	3	1	369	7.7	141
14	Terry Bradshaw	PIT	DAL	13	W	30	318	4	1	266	7.8	140
15	Mark Rypien	WAS	BUF	26	W	33	292	2	1	287	8.7	128
16	Terry Bradshaw	PIT	RAM	14	W	21	309	2	3	214	10.2	123
17	Bart Starr	GNB	KAN	1	W	23	250	2	1	224	8.7	121
18	Terry Bradshaw	PIT	DAL	10	W	19	209	2	0	200	9.5	121
19	Aaron Rodgers	GNB	PIT	45	W	39	304	3	0	348	8.3	118
20	Brett Favre	GNB	NWE	31	W	27	246	2	0	268	8.1	111
21	Drew Brees	NOR	IND	44	W	39	288	2	0	321	8	107
22	Ken Stabler	OAK	MIN	11	W	19	180	1	0	183	8.7	103
23	Troy Aikman	DAL	PIT	30	W	23	209	1	0	218	8.7	91
24	Kurt Warner	ARI	PIT	43	L	43	377	3	1	329	7.3	87
25	John Elway	DEN	NYG	21	L	37	304	1	1	270	6.5	81
26	Bart Starr	GNB	OAK	2	W	24	202	1	0	182	6.5	79
27	Joe Montana	SFO	CIN	16	W	22	157	1	0	188	7.8	76
28	Tom Brady	NWE	PHI	39	W	33	236	2	0	259	7.4	75
29	Joe Namath	NYJ	BAL	3	W	28	206	0	0	195	6.5	68
30	Peyton Manning	IND	NOR	44	L	45	333	1	1	308	6.8	67
31	Ken Anderson	CIN	SFO	16	L	34	300	2	2	254	6.4	67
32	Jeff Hostetler	NYG	BUF	25	W	32	222	1	0	234	6.9	66
33	Bob Lee	MIN	OAK	11	L	9	81	1	0	100	10.9	65
34	Roger Staubach	DAL	MIA	6	W	19	119	2	0	140	6.7	63
35	Steve McNair	TEN	STL	34	L	36	214	0	0	208	5.6	61
36	Eli Manning	NYG	NWE	46	W	40	296	1	0	302	7	61
37	Terry Bradshaw	PIT	MIN	9	W	14	96	1	0	104	6.5	59
38	Kurt Warner	STL	NWE	36	L	44	365	1	2	287	6	55
39	Roger Staubach	DAL	PIT	13	L	30	228	3	1	161	4.6	53
40	Jim Kelly	BUF	NYG	25	L	30	212	0	0	205	6.6	52
41	Jim Plunkett	RAI	WAS	18	W	25	172	1	0	174	6.4	48
42	Roger Staubach	DAL	DEN	12	W	25	183	1	0	142	4.8	45
43	Brad Johnson	TAM	OAK	37	W	34	215	2	1	210	6.2	45
44	Earl Morrall	BAL	DAL	5	W	15	147	0	1	102	6.8	43
45	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	ARI	43	W	30	256	1	1	209	6.5	37
46	Bob Griese	MIA	MIN	8	W	7	73	0	0	63	7.9	34
47	Brett Favre	GNB	DEN	32	L	42	256	3	1	240	5.6	34
48	Daryle Lamonica	OAK	GNB	2	L	34	208	2	1	181	4.9	32
49	Fran Tarkenton	MIN	MIA	8	L	28	182	0	1	141	4.5	31
50	Gary Kubiak	DEN	NYG	21	L	4	48	0	0	45	10.2	25
51	Troy Aikman	DAL	BUF	28	W	27	207	0	1	159	5.5	21
52	Tom Brady	NWE	NYG	46	L	41	276	2	1	261	6.1	20
53	Len Dawson	KAN	GNB	1	L	27	211	1	1	135	4.2	19
54	Trent Dilfer	BAL	NYG	35	W	25	153	1	0	154	5.5	17
55	Tom Brady	NWE	STL	36	W	27	145	1	0	154	5.3	14
56	Len Dawson	KAN	MIN	4	W	17	142	1	1	97	4.9	10
57	Gary Kubiak	DEN	SFO	24	L	3	28	0	0	25	6.8	7
58	Frank Reich	BUF	WAS	26	L	1	11	0	0	10	9.4	5
59	Steve Young	SFO	DEN	24	W	3	20	0	0	20	6.5	5
60	Vince Ferragamo	RAM	PIT	14	L	25	212	0	1	127	4.4	4
61	Danny White	DAL	DEN	12	W	2	5	0	0	3	1.1	4
62	Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	PIT	40	L	49	273	1	1	234	4.5	3
63	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	GNB	45	L	40	263	2	2	211	5.1	2
64	Bill Musgrave	SFO	SDG	29	W	1	6	0	0	6	5.2	0
65	Fran Tarkenton	MIN	OAK	11	L	35	205	1	2	132	3.7	-4
66	Babe Parilli	NYJ	BAL	3	W	1	0	0	0	0	-0.4	-5
67	Zeke Bratkowski	GNB	KAN	1	W	1	0	0	0	-1	-0.8	-5
68	Jay Schroeder	WAS	DEN	22	W	1	0	0	0	-1	-0.6	-6
69	Pete Beathard	KAN	GNB	1	L	5	17	0	0	7	1.3	-6
70	Tony Banks	BAL	NYG	35	W	1	0	0	0	-1	-0.7	-6
71	Eli Manning	NYG	NWE	42	W	34	255	2	1	182	4.9	-8
72	Bob Griese	MIA	WAS	7	W	11	88	1	1	44	3.4	-8
73	Peyton Manning	IND	CHI	41	W	38	247	1	1	184	4.7	-10
74	John Elway	DEN	GNB	32	W	22	123	0	1	98	4.3	-12
75	Don Strock	MIA	WAS	17	L	3	0	0	0	-3	-0.9	-17
76	Steve Fuller	CHI	NWE	20	W	4	0	0	0	-3	-0.6	-23
77	Ron Jaworski	PHI	OAK	15	L	38	291	1	3	146	3.8	-28
78	Joe Theismann	WAS	MIA	17	W	23	143	2	2	74	2.8	-33
79	Dan Marino	MIA	SFO	19	L	50	318	1	2	219	4.1	-33
80	Elvis Grbac	SFO	SDG	29	W	1	0	0	0	-30	-28.2	-36
81	Johnny Unitas	BAL	NYJ	3	L	24	110	0	1	65	2.7	-37
82	David Woodley	MIA	WAS	17	L	14	97	1	1	28	1.9	-37
83	Donovan McNabb	PHI	NWE	39	L	51	357	3	3	249	4.5	-40
84	Norris Weese	DEN	DAL	12	L	10	22	0	0	-18	-1.6	-42
85	Gale Gilbert	SDG	SFO	29	L	6	30	0	1	-17	-2.7	-44
86	Gary Cuozzo	MIN	KAN	4	L	3	16	0	1	-32	-9.6	-46
87	Johnny Unitas	BAL	DAL	5	W	9	88	1	2	-12	-1.3	-47
88	Tom Brady	NWE	NYG	42	L	48	266	1	0	219	4.1	-53
89	Bob Griese	MIA	DAL	6	L	23	134	0	1	30	1.3	-58
90	Boomer Esiason	CIN	SFO	23	L	25	144	0	1	78	2.6	-65
91	Jim Kelly	BUF	DAL	28	L	50	260	0	1	182	3.4	-66
92	Stan Humphries	SDG	SFO	29	L	49	275	1	2	189	3.7	-67
93	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	SEA	40	W	21	123	0	2	45	2	-67
94	Tony Eason	NWE	CHI	20	L	6	0	0	0	-40	-5.6	-72
95	Roger Staubach	DAL	PIT	10	L	24	204	2	3	37	1.2	-78
96	Chris Chandler	ATL	DEN	33	L	35	219	1	3	91	2.5	-79
97	Joe Kapp	MIN	KAN	4	L	25	183	0	2	39	1.4	-81
98	John Elway	DEN	WAS	22	L	38	257	1	3	93	2.2	-90
99	Rex Grossman	CHI	IND	41	L	28	165	1	2	54	1.9	-90
100	Steve Grogan	NWE	CHI	20	L	30	177	1	2	56	1.6	-105
101	Jim Kelly	BUF	DAL	27	L	7	82	0	2	-72	-9.3	-107
102	Joe Theismann	WAS	RAI	18	L	35	243	0	2	73	1.8	-112
103	Craig Morton	DAL	BAL	5	L	26	127	1	3	-2	-0.1	-112
104	Fran Tarkenton	MIN	PIT	9	L	26	102	0	3	-33	-1.3	-127
105	Earl Morrall	BAL	NYJ	3	L	17	71	0	3	-64	-3.8	-136
106	Frank Reich	BUF	DAL	27	L	31	194	1	2	16	0.5	-137
107	Neil O'Donnell	PIT	DAL	30	L	49	239	1	3	122	2.3	-147
108	Billy Kilmer	WAS	MIA	7	L	28	104	0	3	-48	-1.6	-159
109	Drew Bledsoe	NWE	GNB	31	L	48	253	2	4	74	1.4	-178
110	John Elway	DEN	SFO	24	L	26	108	0	2	-22	-0.7	-182
111	Rich Gannon	OAK	TAM	37	L	44	272	2	5	35	0.7	-212
112	Craig Morton	DEN	DAL	12	L	15	39	0	4	-157	-9	-214
113	Jim Kelly	BUF	WAS	26	L	58	275	2	4	30	0.5	-269
114	Kerry Collins	NYG	BAL	35	L	39	112	0	4	-124	-2.9	-335

If you type Montana’s name into the search box, you can see that he has the 1st, 4th, 11th and 27th best performance in Super Bowl history. The best performance in a losing effort goes to Jake Delhomme, who shredded the Patriots secondary in the second half of Super Bowl XXXVIII (he began the game 1 for 9 for 1 yard). The worst performance in a winning effort, unsurprisingly, goes to Ben Roethlisberger in Super Bowl XL, although Joe Theismann against the Dolphins gets an honorable mention. Worst performance overall goes to Kerry Collins, although Craig Morton’s 4 interceptions and 39 yards on 15 attempts against his former team in Super Bowl XII could give Collins a run for his money.

What about best championship game performances in the pre-Super Bowl era?

Rk	QB	Tm	Opp	Year	W/L	Att	Pyd	TD	INT	CY	CYP	VAL
1	Tobin Rote	DET	CLE	1957	W	19	280	4	0	380	19	304
2	Sid Luckman	CHI	WAS	1943	W	26	286	5	0	386	14.8	248
3	Otto Graham	CLE	RAM	1950	W	33	298	4	1	292	7.7	236
4	Sammy Baugh	WAS	CHI	1937	W	33	335	3	1	320	9.7	228
5	Harry Newman	NYG	CHI	1933	L	19	209	2	1	204	10.7	197
6	Charlie Conerly	NYG	CHI	1956	W	10	195	2	0	232	22.1	192
7	Bart Starr	GNB	NYG	1961	W	17	164	3	0	224	13.2	152
8	Otto Graham	CLE	DET	1954	W	12	163	3	2	193	12.9	135
9	Frank Ryan	CLE	BAL	1964	W	18	206	3	1	212	11.2	132
10	Norm Van Brocklin	RAM	CLE	1951	W	6	128	1	0	148	24.7	129
11	Tobin Rote	SDG	BOS	1963	W	15	173	2	0	226	13.1	127
12	Sid Luckman	CHI	NYG	1941	W	12	160	0	0	160	13.3	125
13	George Blanda	HOU	LAC	1960	W	31	301	3	0	361	11.6	123
14	Charlie Conerly	NYG	BAL	1958	W	14	187	1	0	190	11.6	122
15	Arnie Herber	GNB	NYG	1938	L	14	123	1	0	143	10.2	117
16	Johnny Unitas	BAL	NYG	1959	W	29	264	2	0	267	7.4	115
17	Charlie O'Rourke	CHI	WAS	1942	L	7	128	0	0	128	18.3	105

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Yesterday, I explained the methodology behind the formula involved in ranking every quarterback season in football history. Today, I’m going to present the career results. Converting season value to career value isn’t as simple as it might seem. Generally, we don’t want a player who was very good for 12 years to rank ahead of a quarterback who was elite for ten. Additionally, we don’t want to give significant penalties to players who struggled as rookies or hung around too long; we’re mostly concerned with the peak value of the player.

What I’ve historically done — and done here — is to give each quarterback 100% of his value or score from his best season, 95% of his score in his second best season, 90% of his score in his third best season, and so on. This rewards quarterbacks who played really well for a long time and doesn’t kill players with really poor rookie years or seasons late in their career. It also helps to prevent the quarterbacks who were compilers from dominating the top of the list. The table below shows the top 150 regular season QBs in NFL history using that formula, along with the first and last years of their careers, their number of career attempts (including sacks and rushing touchdowns), and their career records and winning percentages (each since 1950). For visibility reasons, I’ve shown the top 30 quarterbacks below, but you can change that number in the filter or click on the right arrow to see the remaining quarterbacks.
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