Super Bowl XLVIII Preview Generator

January 15, 2014 Totally Useless

The Super Bowl is still 18 days away, but that doesn’t mean it’s too early to write a preview of The Big Game. In fact, only suckers wait until the conclusion of the conference championship games to write their preview article. So prepare yourself for your first Super Bowl XLVIII Preview: Super Bowl XLVIII Promises […]

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Insane Idea: Spotting Points in the Playoffs

January 4, 2014 Insane Ideas

One of my favorite sabermetric baseball articles of all time was written by Sky Andrecheck in 2010 — part as a meditation on the purpose/meaning of playoffs, and part as a solution for some of the thorny logical concerns that arise from said mediation. The basic conundrum for Andrecheck revolved around the very existence of […]

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Where does Brees-Wilson rank among shortest QB matchups?

December 2, 2013 Current Events

New Orlean’s Drew Brees is officially listed as six feet tall. Seattle’s Russell Wilson is officially listed as 5’11. That means the average height of the starting quarterbacks in tonight’s game is 71.5 inches, tied for the shortest average in any game since 1964. In fact, it’s been twelve years since a game has featured […]

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Checkdowns: The Complete History of Brady-Manning Matchups

November 25, 2013 Checkdowns

Presented below, without comment, is a table of every matchup featuring Tom Brady & Peyton Manning as the starting quarterbacks. Enjoy: Tweet

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Checkdowns: Worst. Monday Night Football Matchup. Ever. (By combined winning percentage)

October 21, 2013 Checkdowns

(I originally posted this at the S-R Blog, but I thought it would be very appropriate here as well.) Just a quick hit of a post to let you know that tonight’s MNF matchup between the 0-6 Giants and the 1-4 Vikings is, in fact, the worst ever this late in the season by combined […]

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Making a schedule for a London NFL team

August 31, 2013 Totally Useless

Bill Barnwell wrote an interesting article about the hurdles the NFL must jump to successfully place a team in London. We don’t know whether the NFL would move an existing team or place an expansion team in London (presumably with the introduction of a second expansion team, likely in Los Angeles, as well). Thirty-four teams […]

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The Biggest Fluke Fantasy Seasons Ever (Part II)

August 10, 2013 Fantasy

Yesterday, I set up a method for ranking the flukiest fantasy football seasons since the NFL-AFL merger, finding players who had elite fantasy seasons that were completely out of step with the rest of their careers. I highlighted fluke years #21-30, so here’s a recap of the rankings thus far: 30. Lorenzo White, 1992 29. […]

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The Biggest Fluke Fantasy Seasons Ever (Part I)

August 9, 2013 Fantasy

There’s nothing like a truly great fluke fantasy season. Because they can help carry you to a league championship (and therefore eternal bragging rights — flags fly forever, after all), a random player who unexpectedly has a great season will often have a special place in the heart of every winning owner. And even if […]

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How to Improve the NFL Network’s Top 100

July 11, 2013 Totally Useless

For three straight years, NFL Network has produced a list of the Top 100 Players of 20xx. Many people have criticized the results, and this summary from Bill Barnwell hits on some of the main issues. But my issue isn’t with the mistakes the players may be making in the voting booth, but the mistakes […]

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Mike Lombardi Cracks the Code to Winning in the NFL

June 19, 2013 History

Yesterday, Joe Fortenbaugh canonized Mike Lombardi for discovering and emphasizing one of the game’s great hidden stats: the number of rushing attempts plus completions a team has in a game. If you hit 50, you’re in great shape. Fortenbaugh reminds us that Lombardi, whose last team went 2-14, “possesses a vast range of knowledge spanning […]

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Where Does Tim Tebow Rank in the Pantheon of Great Quarterbacks

May 1, 2013 Quarterbacks

With the Jets releasing Tim Tebow, it appears that his NFL career may be over. If that’s the case, it’s time to reflect on a great career that never ceased to captivate the nation. While there are many ways to grade a quarterback, probably the best and simplest measure would be “production in last home […]

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What did the media say about Tom Brady in 2000?

April 21, 2013 Draft

[In case you missed it, earlier this week, I created an NFL Draft Pick Value Calculator and provided wallet-sized and iPhone-style copies of the 2013 NFL Schedule.] I find old newspaper articles very entertaining, so I decided to see how the Boston Globe documented the selection of Tom Brady in the sixth round of the […]

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Will Geno Smith fall in the draft?

April 19, 2013 Draft

I have no inside information and I’m not a draftnik, but that won’t stop me from trying to read the tea leaves. I’m of the opinion that Geno Smith will fall to the late first round of the draft next week. I’m not a huge Smith fan — a passer-friendly system boosted his admittedly impressive […]

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Which Player Has Scored the Most Game-Winning Touchdowns

April 12, 2013 Totally Useless

Five years ago, Doug wrote an interesting post about game-winning touchdowns. Let’s be clear: tracking things like game-winning touchdowns is only interesting in a trivial sort way, but hey, it’s April. Football doesn’t have a statistic like “game-winning RBIs” the way baseball does, although my friend Scott Kacsmar has been doing a great job tracking […]

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Happy Valentine’s Day to The Quarterback in Your Life

February 14, 2013 Passing

There have been 35 quarterbacks in NFL history to throw for at least 30,000 yards. Given enough time, you could probably guess that Drew Bledsoe, Jim Kelly, and Steve McNair are three of them. All three have something else in common: they were all born on February 14th. If we drop the cut-off to 16,000 […]

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Super Bowl Squares: How to win your Pool at your Super Bowl Party

January 31, 2013 Checkdowns

In 2009, Doug produced a Super Bowl Squares post, itself a revival of his old Sabernomics post eight years ago. In those posts, Doug derived the probability of winning a squares pool for each given square (or set of numbers). Unsurprisingly, he found that those lucky souls holding the ’7/0′ squares were in good shape, […]

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Checkdowns: Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt “FIP” for Quarterbacks

December 22, 2012 Checkdowns

I’ve been on a major QB kick lately, and there’s no reason to stop now. Today, I want to look at a method that might tease out a quarterback’s “true talent” better than if we simply use his raw stats from the season. Three years ago, our colleague Jason Lisk had a post on the […]

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Checkdowns: Quarterback Yards Above Bench (QBYAB)

December 21, 2012 Checkdowns

After posting about SRS-style quarterback ratings on Monday, I was thinking about other things we can do with game-by-game data like that. In his QBGOAT series, Chase likes to compare QBs to the league average, which makes a lot of sense for all-time ratings — you want to reward guys who are at least above-average […]

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My college football playoff system

December 4, 2012 College

If Friday (or sometimes Thursday) is rant day at Football Perspective, then perhaps the first Tuesday in December can be fantasy day. Since everyone else does it, allow me to describe to you my preferred college playoff system. A modified 8-team playoff that’s actually a 10-team playoff with a four-team “play-in” round. A playoff system […]

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Splits Happen

June 28, 2012 Fantasy

[Five years ago, my friend and Pro-Football-Reference.com founder Doug Drinen wrote the predecessor to todaay's article, but refused to go with this title. The principles remain fundamental to advanced analysis of any sport, so today I'll be revisiting them with current examples.] Our brains are really good at making connections and finding patterns. In The […]

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