Another Note on the Relative Impact of Offense vs. Defense on Scoring

May 8, 2013 History

Last week, Chase had a great post where he looked at what percentage of the points scored by a team in any given game is a function of the team, and what percentage is a function of the opponent. The answer, according to Chase’s method, was 58 percent for the offense and 42 percent for [...]

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More thoughts on how many games a team of replacements would win

March 30, 2013 Statgeekery

Yesterday, I asked how many wins a team full of recent draft picks and replacement-level NFL players would fare. I don’t think there’s a right answer to the question, but it might be a more important question than you think (and you’ll see why on Monday). But I have at least one way we can [...]

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Thought Experiment: How many wins would this team average?

March 29, 2013 Theory

It’s been awhile, but time for another post in the Thought Experiments category. Assume the following: On May 1st, 2013, an average owner, average general manager and average coach are assigned an expansion team. They are randomly assigned 24 players: one from each of the seven rounds of the 2011, 2012, and 2013 drafts. So [...]

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Yet another thought experiment

October 6, 2012 Thought Experiments

I’ve decided to add a new category to Football Perspective, as this thought experiment idea is here to stay. Here’s today’s thought experiment: It’s 4th and 1, at the 50-yard line, with 1:30 to go. You’re the defensive coordinator and your team is trailing by 1 and out of timeouts. The other team looks like [...]

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Another thought experiment

September 29, 2012 Thought Experiments

In this post, I noted that the Steelers could have punted to the Raiders, leaving Oakland with the ball likely at their own 33-yard line in a tie game with just under 4 minutes remaining. You are the head coach of a team with a league average offense and league average defense. You are given [...]

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A thought experiment

September 22, 2012 Strategy

Yeah, yeah, Football Perspective turned 100 today, blah blah blah. I have something on my mind and I need the wisdom of this crowd. Below is a thought experiment. You are highly incentivized to correctly guess how many interceptions a quarterback threw in a specific game. If you can answer it correctly within the one-tenth [...]

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