About/Contact

Football Perspective covers the history and statistical side of football. My contact information is at chase [at] footballperspective [dot] com. All stats come courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com.

I’ve been writing about football for the past decade, at footballguys.com, pro-football-reference.com, the Fifth Down blog at the New York Times, and smartfootball.com. So what will I be doing here? I’ll be blogging about everything football-related, from Jerry Rice to Bobby Douglass, and from the 1978 Patriots to who is the greatest quarterback of all time.

Like/Follow Football Perspective at facebook.com/footballperspective

Follow me on twitter @fbgchase.

{ 19 comments… read them below or add one }

Adam September 6, 2012 at 1:09 am

Chase, it was great to see an updated version of your GQBOAT series. I have a few questions/concerns:

1) Are your season/career rankings still adjusted for schedule and weather? If so, is there any chance you could publish a list of each quarterback’s adjustments, or simply include them as an extra column with the rankings?

2) How do you incorporate rushing yards into the CYP metric? I understand the method of only counting yards above 4 YPC, but I can’t figure out how you translate that into the context of a QB’s overall per play average.

3) You noted not having sack data for playoff games before 2008. I’m sure you already know this, but complete playoff sack data can be found at nfl.com, so why aren’t you using it? The same questions applies to playoff fumbles, as well.

4) In the same vein as the previous question, is there a reason you don’t adjust playoff games for schedule and weather? If anything, those would be the most important games to adjust, since you give them extra weight.

5) I remember for the 2009 rankings you combined regular season and playoff value into one overall career value chart. Are you planning on doing that for the 2012 rankings? That would be very helpful.

6) Since you have connections with PFR, would you guys ever consider listing season-by-season value and career value on PFR’s individual quarterback pages? I noticed Scott Kacsmar’s 4QC and GWD stats are now listed, and I think your QB Value stats would also be a great addition.

7) In my opinion, interceptions are overpenalized in the ANY/A formula, and thus in your Value rankings as well. I understand that the figure of -45 comes from empirical research, but interceptions are almost entirely random from year-to-year (as you’ve written about), so it seems illogical to place such a heavy penalty on an outcome that can mostly be attributed to luck. Even in retrodictive studies like GQBOAT, do interception numbers really tell us anything about a quarterback’s skill? I remember reading somewhere that it takes 5,000 pass attempts for a QB’s interception % to represent even HALF skill.

I know that’s a lot of questions, but I love your work and I want more!

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Chase Stuart September 6, 2012 at 12:39 pm

Thanks, Adam. These are all great questions, but I suspect unsatisfying answers.

1) They are not. Just a timing issue here. They absolutely should be included, and I hope to have them in the next iteration. For reference, I often still check the old results, which are still up at the PFR blog.

2) Insight question: the answer, I don’t. It’s a fudge, and not included in the per play average.

But let’s say a QB has a 4000 converted yards on 500 attempts. He is averaging 8 CY/A. If he also had 400 rushing yards on 50 carries, he gets a bonus of +200. So if the league average CY/A was 6.0, he would get a Value of 1200, based on being 2 CY/A over average on 500 attempts (+1000) and an additional 200 yards of rushing value.

I suppose you could then just say he has 4200 converted yards on 500 attempts, for a CY/A of 8.4, but that will change as the league average changes. If the league average was 5.0, it would be a different story.

The moral is I still don’t know what to do with rushing data. The big problem for me is that rushing attempts are tricky; they include kneels and sneaks and three yard scrambles for first downs, which will really drop your CY/A but shouldn’t.

3) Easy but unsatisfying answer: My database doesn’t have it. Thanks for the heads up on NFL.com having it, but until PFR incorporates the data, I won’t have it.

4) Agreed that some adjustments should take place. Remember with weather, though, it is “normalized” and not actual weather. Again, at some point, we hope to get all of this 100% correct.

5) Yes, that would be helpful. Again, just didn’t get around to it yet. I suppose I still might.

6) We have batted this idea around before. At one point we said we would, but I think it got lost in the shuffle.

7) I hear you. And I don’t disagree. But to me, -45 just feels right for this system. It would seem odd to have a bunch of high INT seasons creep up the rankings. But I agree with your sentiment.

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Adam September 7, 2012 at 12:13 am

Thanks for answering my questions so quickly, Chase. Believe me, I understand you’re a busy man, and you don’t have time to worry about every little detail in every article.

I’ve experimented with a similar QB Value system to the one you’re using, except I give only a 10 yard bonus for TD’s and a 20 yard penalty for INT’s and fumbles. Admittedly, it does overrate high YPA/high INT seasons like Carson Palmer’s 2011 or Kurt Warner’s 2000. But if someone has to be overrated by the system, I’d prefer it to be the gunslinger types, not the conservative checkdown guys. IMO, most metrics vastly overrate seasons like Damon Huard’s 2006, David Garrard’s 2007, and even Tom Brady’s 2010. They put up decent YPA numbers, but had obscenely low INT rates, which were never duplicated again in any of their other seasons, indicating it was more luck than skill. But I guess the importance of each stat just comes down to personal preference.

For playoff weather adjustments, I’ve been using a formula of (50 – wind chill) * .015 for games played under 50 degrees. For example, if a game is played at a wind chill of 25, the quarterbacks’ NY/A baselines would be lowered by .375 yards per play. I also raise the baseline by .5 for dome games on turf, and .3 for dome games on grass. Those are all completely arbitrary numbers, but they seem intuitive to me.

I couldn’t find your email address anywhere on this site, which is why I used the comments forum. Do you have a contact email I could use in the future?

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Chase Stuart September 7, 2012 at 12:36 am

I do find the irony in you posting a comment asking for my contact info on the one page of the site that lists my contact info.

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Adam September 8, 2012 at 12:36 am

Wow I feel like an idiot now.

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Saha December 25, 2012 at 9:30 pm

Hi Chase,

I am regular reader of your blog and thoroughly enjoy reading it. I wanted to know if you had written any article or a blog post regarding a team going for a 2pt conversion when up 5. I was wondering which is a better proposition for a winning team when up 5 with about 10 minutes left in regulation, going for XP or a 2 pt conversion.

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Chase Stuart December 26, 2012 at 12:42 am

I think going for 2 is pretty obvious there, subject to the caveat that teams have a roughly 50/50 shot at converting.

Here is one thing I wrote about a similar situation: http://www.footballperspective.com/chan-gailey-wisely-went-for-1-up-5-against-tennessee/

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David February 5, 2013 at 2:38 pm

Do you have a list of answers to your “Super Bowl XLVII Prop Bets”

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andrew sachais February 9, 2013 at 5:06 pm

Hey Chase,

I was wondering if we could talk over email about my possible contribution to the site. I love the quantitative depth at which you and many others analyze the NFL. I have constructed a few models of my own at school. I am an economics major, but also work for the Daily Caller as a journalist and the business column editor. I think both my writing and analytic skills allow me to write solid articles. I could send you a piece and let you tell me if it is worthy of publishing. I am really interested in just getting my stuff out there and getting feedback as well.

Regards,
Andrew

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Chase Stuart February 9, 2013 at 7:17 pm

Thanks Andrew. I tried e-mailing you with the address you registered with when posting, but the e-mail bounced. Please e-mail me if you would like to discuss.

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Tim Truemper May 16, 2013 at 10:50 am

Don’t know where else to post this, but will there be an item on the passing of George Sauer?

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Chase Stuart May 16, 2013 at 11:12 am

Good question, Tim. I’d like to, but those types of articles tend to consume the most amount of time, a resource I’m low on right now.

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David Kubicki June 4, 2013 at 1:35 pm

Chase, I put together an extensive campaign to try and get the senior HOF voters to revisit the case for Kenny Anderson. The campaign involved extensive testimonials from: Anthony Munoz, Cris Collinsworth, Bob Trumpy, Dave Lapham, Mike Brown and many other Bengals who played with Kenny. It also included testimonials from opposing teammates. Most came from Steelers opponents.
I know you are an authority on ranking QB’s statistically. I believe the 3 things that impact Kenny’s get ability to get senior HOF voter support are, the push for them to get more defenders in, his competing against every player in history that is not in. and some people who have long believed that Ken Stabler belongs in before Anderson.
From what I see, Anderson seems to have put up way better numbers statistically and accomplished so much with no near the talent that Ken Stabler had around him. My question is, if you had a vote, who do you think is more worthy of HOF induction? Please feel free to email me back if it does not fit this forum. thanks,

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Chase Stuart June 5, 2013 at 10:21 am

David,

Statistically, Anderson’s numbers blow away Stabler’s production. In my QB ranking system, Anderson comes in at #12, while Stabler is down at #60. http://www.footballperspective.com/the-greatest-qb-of-all-time-iv-part-ii-career-rankings/

Stats never paint the full picture, but Stabler benefited from playing with one of the great supporting casts in NFL history. He played behind 4 HOF offensive lineman in ’73 (http://www.footballperspective.com/trivia-of-the-day-saturday-august-11th/) and had a stellar supporting cast generally. I rated Lamonica ahead of Stabler a few years ago: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=3203

Stabler was very good in the playoffs, but so was Anderson: http://www.footballperspective.com/the-greatest-qb-of-all-time-iv-part-iii-playoff-results/

If I had a vote, I would easily cast it in favor of Anderson.

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Bucky Fox September 19, 2013 at 4:36 pm

Chase,

Finally getting to you with questions regarding Namath.

Just got off the phone with him. What an entertaining, enlightening guy.

Anyway, hope you can answer these questions:

1. Springboarding off your Namath maze-of-numbers breakdown of last year for the Perspective, how do you rate him among the greatest pro QBs?
2. You mention Namath’s sack avoidance. From what you’ve see on film, what did he do to stay upright?
3. What quarterback today compares closest to him?

If you want to weigh in on anything else, please go for it.

Thanks,
Bucky

Bucky Fox
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P.S. So you know, here’s my Wilt piece from last winter.

Wilt Chamberlain Still A Giant Of Record Proportions

By Bucky Fox, INVESTOR’S BUSINESS DAILY

Chamberlain towered above pro basketball’s crowd while leading the L.A. Lakers and Philadelphia 76ers to two of the greatest seasons in history…. View Enlarged Image
Wilt Chamberlain was huge.
He stood 7 feet 1 inch and weighed upward of 300 pounds.
Hence his nicknames:
The Stilt.
The Big Dipper.
He was even bigger on the court.
“Simply put, nobody dominated every facet of the game the way Chamberlain did,” Jim Flannery of BleacherReport.com told IBD. “He was a better shooter than everyone else, he was a better rebounder than everyone else. He could pass the ball like a point guard. And he did it all while putting in crazy amounts of time on the floor without ever resorting to goonery.”
Flannery is a true believer, to the point of writing a piece titled “The Case for Wilt Chamberlain as the Best Ever.”
Chamberlain’s Keys
• The only NBA player to score 4,000 points in a season, one of the maze of records he set on the way to the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame in 1979.
• Overcame: Battles with Bill Russell.
• Lesson: Adjust your game to suit your team, and titles can result.
• “They say nobody’s perfect. They also say practice makes perfect. I wish they’d make up their minds.”
“From my perspective,” he said in an email, “Wilt stands out from the crowd in virtually every way possible.”
Not just in basketball, said Ike Richman, owner of one of Wilt’s teams, the Philadelphia 76ers: “We have in him a great athlete, who because of his height doesn’t get the credit he is entitled to. He can bowl with anyone, arm-wrestle with any man. . .. I challenge any pro athlete to meet him in any sport other than the one they each participate in for money, with the exception of golf and tennis.”
Richman made that remark in “Wilt: Larger Than Life” by Robert Cherry, who noted: “Hall of Fame coach Alex Hannum considered him not only one of the greatest athletes of his time — but of all time.”
A Force With Gail
On board is Gail Goodrich, who played with Chamberlain on the 1972 champion Lakers.
“There wasn’t anything Wilt couldn’t do on the basketball court,” said the former guard. “He had that much skill over everybody else. He was mentally tough in terms of being competitive and doing all of those things like leading the league in scoring, rebounding and assists. There was no one better than Wilt.”
Chamberlain (1936-99) stood over the game so dramatically, his numbers tower to this day.
NBA.com: “As Oscar Robertson put it in the Philadelphia Daily News when asked whether Chamberlain was the best ever, ‘The books don’t lie.’ … The most outstanding figures are his scoring records: most games with 50-plus points, 118; most consecutive games with 40-plus points, 14 … highest field-goal percentage in a season: .727. … His name appears so often in the scoring record books that his name could be the default response any time a question arises concerning a scoring record in the NBA.”
Isolate his points per game. His 30.1 career average is a hair behind Michael Jordan, but Wilt owns the top four season numbers of all time: 50.4, 44.8, 38.4, 37.6.
That 50.4 came in 1961-62, the season when he poured in 100 for the Philadelphia Warriors in a triumph vs. the New York Knicks. No one has come within shooting range of that century mark — not even Kobe Bryant with his 81 in 2006.
The half-century average over a whole season is even more jarring. Consider the next non-Wilt player on the list is Jordan. The old Chicago Bull filled the hoop in 1986-87 at a 37.1 pace — 26% below Wilt.
Equate that to baseball. The season home run record is 73 by Barry Bonds. If the next slugger were 26% behind, he’d have 54 homers. As it is, Mark McGwire is right behind with 70.
Then there are the wild stats:
• Never fouled out in his 1,205 games.
• Averaged 48.5 minutes a game in 1961-62 — and regulation time is 48 minutes. “I only missed seven minutes the entire season,” he wrote in his book “A View From Above.” “I went 51 straight games without missing a minute, then came out for three minutes. In one other game, I sat for four minutes. Think Patrick Ewing or David Robinson could ever match that?”
Said Flannery: “He led the NBA in minutes per game nine times and never had his average drop below 42. By comparison, there isn’t a single player in the NBA this year averaging 42 MPG. The notion of a 7-1 guy humping it up and down the floor for that long every night back then was inconceivable. There isn’t even a word for what it would be like in the modern era.”
• Had 17 blocks in a game before swats became official. That total would tie Elmore Smith’s record in October 1973 with the Lakers, right after Wilt left the team. “There are lots of clips of Wilt roofing centers who made the mistake of trying to shoot over him. But there are also shots of him blocking jump shots from guys who are 10-15 feet away,” marveled Flannery.
• Made 35 straight field goals in February 1967.
• Not only grabbed 23,924 rebounds, at a 22.9 per-game clip, which still stand alone, but also, he wrote: “Do you know that I went my whole career never having a game in which I didn’t get double figures in rebounds? Not one game with fewer than 10 rebounds. Nowadays, 10 rebounds a game practically leads the league.”
• “On top of all that,” said Flannery, “he is the first and only center to lead the league in assists, dishing out 702 in 1967-68.”
With Wilt’s 14-year career ending after the 1972-73 season, many fans forget this giant of four decades ago. Now greatest-of-all stories and polls are littered with Jordan, Magic Johnson and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar above Chamberlain. FoxSports.com last year rated Wilt sixth.
“When Chamberlain was playing, the NBA was still in its infancy,” said Flannery. “It was not shown on prime time and there were not entire TV channels devoted to broadcasting sports 24/7.
“Jordan’s legend was cemented at a time when the NBA was at its most visible, making it easy to forget any greatness that might have preceded him. Marketing made Jordan into the consensus pick for greatest of all time as much or more than his talent. … Jordan deserves most of the accolades he has received. But he was no Wilt Chamberlain, in my humble opinion.”
Center Of Contention
Another perennial in this arena is Bill Russell, the center who led Boston to 11 titles in 13 years while battling Chamberlain on the Olympus of rivalries. The ex-Celtic ranks third on the Fox Sports list.
Wilt hardly looked up to his old nemesis, writing: “If you are talking about Bill Russell and Wilt Chamberlain, ask: Could Bill ever score 50 points in a game? Draw your own conclusions. Could Wilt Chamberlain have blocked the shots Bill Russell blocked? He blocked more.”
Said Flannery: “A common and simple way to measure a basketball player’s overall value is to look at his PAR (points plus assists plus rebounds). A player whose PAR is over 30 makes you a virtual lock for the Hall of Fame — Julius Erving had a 36.9 PAR, Kareem had a 39.4, Michael Jordan was a spectacular 41.6 and Bill Russell was an even more spectacular 41.9. Wilt Chamberlain’s PAR was 57.4.”
The sportswriter Leonard Koppett told Cherry, “I always believed that Wilt was more of a basketball player than Russell, and that would irritate Russell. If you ask yourself, ‘Imagine Wilt with the Celtics teams, then how much would they have won?’ Or more revealing, put Russell on Wilt’s teams, how many titles would they have won? The reason Wilt’s teams were taking Russell’s teams to the seventh games of the playoffs was because of Wilt and his incredible ability.”
Chamberlain had his own team glitter. His 1966-67 Philadelphia 76ers won the title after going 68-13 — the best regular-season record . .. until his 1971-72 Lakers went 69-13, a mark that lasted a quarter-century.
With Wilt, at age 35, shooting 65% and grabbing 19.2 rebounds per game to lead the league, those Lakers won 33 straight games, the most of any American pro team in history. And they went 31-7 on the road, still an NBA record.
The way NBA.com calls it, those two Wilt teams — one in his native Philly, the other in the city where he died — rank in the top five of all time. “The fact is that every single team he joined over the course of his career improved into a contender when he arrived,” said Flannery. “He brought success wherever he went, and that is one of the hallmarks of greatness.”

Read More At Investor’s Business Daily: http://news.investors.com/management-leaders-in-success/012413-641768-wilt-chamberlain-set-the-standard-in-the-nba.htm#ixzz2fN9kLrSl
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john September 27, 2013 at 1:43 pm

can you get me the results of cleve browns cb joe haden vs cincinatti wr aj green?

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Jeff December 18, 2013 at 9:51 am

“The Seahawks’ Pass Defense Thrives in a Tough Environment” – great piece. Would have loved to see some special mention included for the 1977 Falcons – all things considered still the best single season defense in the NFL, in my opinion, particularly considering the team was 7-7 that year. Reminds me of the year Steve Carlton had in 1972, winning 27 games for a team that won only 59 total.

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Chase Stuart December 18, 2013 at 10:22 am

Thanks, Jeff. The ’77 Falcons were in the table.

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John Lawson March 9, 2014 at 3:14 pm

Before we get into the details of football metrics, I have some questions about fundamental issues.

Assuming we came up with a set of metrics that we all liked for assessing quarterbacks, would we really be able to use them across seasons?

Usually, when people say you can’t bring Moneyball to football, they cite the small sample sizes in football. That’s a perfectly reasonable argument, but the thing I get hung up on is all the change and variety in football. The things that mattered in 1975 weren’t like the things that mattered in 1985, and the things that mattered in 1995 weren’t like the things that mattered in 2005.

Rules change.

College football (the “farm system”) changes a lot, and it changes in ways that sometimes track with pro football and sometimes don’t track with pro football.

And high school football (the spring for talent) bears zero resemblance to what it was 30 years ago or even 15 years ago.

Offensive styles change, which means the responsibilities a QB has in one system might be quite unlike the responsibilities a QB has in another system. All these changes combine for an overwhelming number of second-, third-, fourth-,…, and nth-order effects.

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