October 2012

NYT Fifth Down: Post-week 8

October 31, 2012 NYT

My post for the New York Times this week takes a look at the triumvirate of Mike Tannenbaum, Rex Ryan, and Mark Sanchez. Rex Ryan was hired by Mike Tannenbaum on Jan. 19, 2009. Three months later, they traded up in the 2009 N.F.L. draft to acquire Mark Sanchez. Since that moment, the three of [...]

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Estimating NFL Win Probabilities for Matchups Between Teams of Various Records

October 30, 2012 Statgeekery

(I originally posted this at the S-R Blog, but I thought it would be very appropriate here as well.) WARNING: Math post. PFR user Brad emailed over the weekend with an interesting question: “Wondering if you’ve ever tracked or how it would be possible to find records vs. records statistics….for instance a 3-4 team vs. [...]

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Should Mike Mularkey have gone for 2 against the Packers?

October 30, 2012 Coaches

The Jacksonville Jaguars faced an uphill battle on Sunday: they were 15-point underdogs against the Packers in Lambeau Field. Trailing 14-6 in the final seconds of the first half, Blaine Gabbert threw a one-yard touchdown pass to tackle Guy Whimper. At that point, Mike Mularkey decided to go for two in an attempt to tie [...]

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How much does Philip Rivers’ decline have to do with Philip Rivers?

October 29, 2012 Passing

For years, I was an unabashed Philip Rivers supporter. I had no preexisting affinity for the Chargers or Rivers, but in all the metrics I care about, Rivers was always one of the best. In 2008, 2009, and 2010, Philip Rivers led the league in yards per attempt. He finished first in ANY/A in ’08 [...]

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There is only a 10% chance Oregon, Kansas State, and Notre Dame all go undefeated

October 28, 2012 College

Neil once pointed out, that you can approximate a team’s odds of winning a game by using the point spread and the following formula: p(W) = 1 – (1-NORMDIST(0.5,SPREAD,13.86,TRUE))+0.5*(NORMDIST(0.5,SPREAD,13.86,TRUE)-NORMDIST(-0.5,SPREAD,13.86,TRUE)) For college football games, there is research by Wayne Winston and Jeff Sagarin that the standard deviation in the above formula should be 16 instead of [...]

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Week 9 SRS Ratings: When Will Oregon Stop Scoring?

October 28, 2012 College

Oregon’s offense is ridiculous, and its defense and special teams aren’t far behind. Entering this weekend, Oregon had outscored opponents 234-46 … in the first half. Prior to their game against Colorado, Bill Connelly ranked Oregon as the third best defense in college football. Against the horrible Buffaloes, the Ducks didn’t disappoint. Oregon jumped out [...]

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Wins with quarterbacks drafted by that team

October 27, 2012 Draft

Good stat today by ESPN’s Adam Schefter, who notes that Kansas City has gone 25 years without winning a game with a quarterback drafted by the Chiefs. This Todd Blackledge-led victory over the Chargers in 1987 was the last time a quarterback drafted by the Chiefs won a game in red and gold. That’s remarkable, [...]

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New page added to Football Perspective: NCAA Games

October 27, 2012 Uncategorized

At the top of every page there are gray tabs that will take you to the different pages at Football Perspective. I’ve added a new one: NCAA Games. That page will show you the results for every individual game involving any of the 124 FBS teams this year. The page will be updated along with [...]

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Trivia of the Day – Saturday, October 27th

October 27, 2012 Rushing

Last week, I noted that Calvin Johnson was trying to become just the third player since 1970 to lead the NFL in receiving yards in consecutive seasons. The rushing crown is much more likely to go to the same player; in fact, ten rushing champions since 1973 also led the league in rushing yards in [...]

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Cam Newton is having an interesting year

October 26, 2012 Statistics

I don’t care about any of the nonsense with Cam Newton. Instead, take a look at his 2011 and 2012 stat lines: Year GS QBrec Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD TD% Int Int% Y/A AY/A Y/C Yd/G Sk Yds NY/A ANY/A Sk% Rsh Yds TD YPC Y/G C/G 2011 16 6-10-0 310 517 60.0 4051 [...]

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