Eli Manning in elite INT territory

December 20, 2013 History

After a five-interception performance against a dominant Seattle pass defense, Eli Manning now has 25 interceptions this season. The odds are extremely low, but it’s not impossible that he throws ten more interceptions and ties the modern record set by Vinny Testaverde in 1988. That year, a 25-year-old Testaverde threw 35 interceptions when the league […]

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Analyzing every Joe Flacco interception this year

November 26, 2013 Passing

Over the course of his six-year career, Joe Flacco has generally done an excellent job at avoiding interceptions. Remember that quarterbacks are much more likely to be intercepted on deep passes, and Flacco tends to throw deep. Flacco has the 5th highest average length of pass this year according to NFLGSIS, after ranking 3rd in […]

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Multiple Pick Sixes by a Defensive Player against the Same Quarterback

October 20, 2013 History

On Tuesday, I look at the quarterbacks who have thrown the most pick sixes. As a follow-up, I wondered: what’s the record for pick sixes by a defensive player against a quarterback? Rod Woodson is the career leader in interception return scores with twelve, but only two of those came against the same quarerback (Steve […]

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Most Pick Sixes Thrown in NFL History

October 15, 2013 Data Dump

Three years ago to the day, I crunched the numbers to see which quarterbacks had thrown the most pick sixes thrown in NFL history. With three more years of data, a robust play-by-play database, and, ya know, Matt Schaub, I figured it was time for an update. In case you haven’t noticed, Schaub became the […]

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Analyzing Interceptions: 2000 to 2012

June 3, 2013 History

Last off-season, I produced an exhaustive analysis of fumble recovery rates. With 13 years of play-by-play data at my disposal, I thought it would be worthwhile to take a closer look at interceptions. You can skip to the results section if you like, but let me start with a few disclaimers. Interceptions are tricky to […]

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Are Pick Sixes becoming more common in college football, too?

March 31, 2013 Checkdowns

On Thursday, I looked at the increase in pick sixes per interception in the NFL. Brian Fremeau asked if that was also going on at the college level, so let’s take a look. In 2012, there were 159 pick sixes according to cfbstats.com, matching the number provided at Sports-Reference.com. That’s right in line with previous […]

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Interceptions are much more likely to be returned for touchdowns now

March 28, 2013 History

Good bit of trivia from my buddy Scott Kacsmar: there were 71 interceptions returned for touchdowns in 2012, the highest number in NFL history. Another interesting fact about the 2012 season: just 2.6 interceptions were thrown per 100 attempts, the lowest figure in NFL history. We already know that the league-wide interception rate has been […]

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More work on POPIP and predicting INT rates

October 23, 2012 Passing

A couple of weeks ago, I wrote about interceptions per incompletion, or POPIP. In that article I showed how a player’s completion percentage is a better predictor of his future interception rate than his actual interception rate. And in this article by Brian Burke, one comment stuck with me: Griffin has thrown deep, defined as […]

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Interceptions per Incompletion (or POPIP)

September 24, 2012 Passing

I leave the baseball analysis to my brothers at baseball-reference.com, but I know enough to be dangerous. There’s a stat called BABIP, which stands for Batting Average on Balls In Play. A “ball in play” is simply any at bat that doesn’t end in a home run or a strikeout. The thinking goes that luck […]

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