Implied SRS Ratings of College Football Teams in 2014

June 16, 2014 College

The Simple Rating System is a set of computer rankings that is focused on only two variables: strength of schedule and margin of victory. I publish weekly college football SRS ratings each season, and you can read more about the SRS there. Last year, I took the Las Vegas point spreads for over 200 college […]

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College Observations from the 2014 Draft

May 14, 2014 College

Messing with Texas By now, you’ve probably heard that no player from the University of Texas was drafted. Jackson Jeffcoat was the Big 12 co-Defensive Player of the Year, but that honor wasn’t enough to enable him to hear his named called on any of the three draft days.1 The draft was first instituted in 1936, […]

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Which College Conferences Dominate the NFL Draft?

April 18, 2014 College

On Sunday, I used my draft value chart to determine how NFL teams valued various positions. Today, I’ll use the same method to see which schools and conferences dominate the NFL Draft. You are not going to be surprised to discover that USC Trojans have dominated the draft over the last ten years. You’ll be […]

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College Quarterback Passing Stats From 2013

March 18, 2014 College

Sometimes, it’s hard to believe that it’s 2014. With draft season now in full gear, I wanted to take a few minutes and look at the stats of the top college quarterbacks from last year. Unfortunately, that’s easier said than done. I couldn’t find a site that presented a full list of all college quarterback […]

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Pittsburgh’s Aaron Donald Was Your Combine MVP

February 28, 2014 College

Building on yesterday’s post, I decided to crown a combine MVP because it’s February and there’s nothing else to do. I looked at each player’s combine results, courtesy of the great NFLSavant.com, in four different tests. 40-yard dash There were 268 players with 40-yard dash times posted at NFL Savant. I ran a regression using […]

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A Monte Carlo-Based Comparison of College Football Playoff Systems

January 6, 2014 College

Love the Bowl Championship Series or (more likely) hate it, tonight marks the end of college football’s 16-year BCS experiment. Designed to bring some measure of order to the chaotic state college football had been in under the Bowl Alliance/Coalition, the BCS did streamline the process of determining a national champion — though it was […]

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Which Four Teams Would Make a College Playoff in 2013?

December 10, 2013 College

We can officially declare the BCS dead (1998-2013). As it turns out, the final edition of the BCS rankings was not controversial. It took awhile, but with the losses by Ohio State and Northern Illinois, Florida State was the only team in the Football Bowl Subdivision to finish the year without a blemish. The champion […]

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Is Ohio State Going 13-0 More Impressive than Auburn going 12-1?

December 7, 2013 College

Let’s just assume that Auburn defeats Missouri this afternoon and Ohio State defeats Michigan State tonight. Which team would have pulled off the more impressive feat: Ohio State, going undefeated against a relatively easy schedule, or Auburn going 12-1 against a harder schedule? That’s a tricky question to answer, but here is one way to […]

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Week 14 College Football SRS Ratings & The Iron Bowl

December 2, 2013 College

We are out of words. You should be dead, Auburn, because we saw you die. And here you are, breathing in the flesh, able to say this: you made the Alabama Crimson Tide kick the winning touchdown for you. It’s hard to top that recap from EDSBS of one of the greatest games in college […]

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FCS Playoffs Preview

November 30, 2013 College

I’ll be honest: I know nothing about FCS football. But that’s what the SRS is for! If you want to read a real FCS playoff preview, SB Nation has a good one, as does the Sports Network, but let’s be honest, I have no idea how good those previews are. If you were to tell […]

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Week 13 College Football SRS Ratings: November Strikes Again

November 25, 2013 College

Every year, a few mind-blowing upsets occur this time of year, and every year, we are shocked when it happens. Three of the top five single game performances of the season occurred on Saturday, including the best individual game rating of the year. Oklahoma State’s blowout win against Baylor produced an SRS score of 88.5, […]

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Comparing the schedules of Ohio State and Baylor

November 23, 2013 College

In the unlikely event that either Alabama or Florida State drop a game, Ohio State and Baylor will each have very good arguments that they deserve to move into the top two of the BCS standings. Through 12 weeks, Baylor ranks higher than Ohio State in the SRS ratings thanks to a higher margin of […]

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Week 12 College Football SRS Ratings: Auburn Stays Alive

November 18, 2013 College

Entering week 12, there were 7 teams with legitimate paths to the national championship. The four undefeated teams came in with cupcake games, while two of the three one-loss teams had tough challenges. So what happened? Alabama was a 23-point favorite at Mississippi State (53rd in the week 11 SRS ratings). It wasn’t pretty, but […]

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The SEC is a dominant 8-6 against BCS teams

November 16, 2013 College

This year, the SEC is 8-6 against BCS conferences, courtesy of: A 2-2 record against the AAC (South Carolina over Central Florida, Texas A&M over SMU; Kentucky lost to Louisville and Arkansas lost to Rutgers); A 2-2 record against the ACC (Alabama over Virginia Tech; South Carolina over North Carolina; Clemson over Georgia, Miami over […]

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Week 11 College Football SRS Ratings: FSU, Baylor stay on top

November 11, 2013 College

Last week, the top five was Florida State, Baylor, Oregon, Alabama, and Arizona State. Florida State won big (by 56), while Baylor and Alabama won big games (against Oklahoma and LSU) by comfortable margins. Arizona State won by a point at Utah, an underrated team (despite the record, Utah ranks 24th in the SRS). Of […]

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Week 10 College Football SRS Ratings: Florida State Staying Strong at #1

November 4, 2013 College

The Florida State Seminoles have done everything a championship team should do. FSU obliterated a 4-0 Maryland team 63-0, the most dominant win of the first five weeks of the season. That performance has only been eclipsed by one game since: the Seminoles 51-14 victory on the road against Clemson, a team that is currently […]

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Non-FBS College Football Ratings Through 10 Weeks

November 4, 2013 College

Every week, I publish my college football ratings for FBS teams. To generate those ratings – using this methodology — my program also generates ratings for non-FBS teams. Since there is less interest in those numbers, I rarely publish them, but here are the ratings through ten weeks for all non-FBS teams. Tweet

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Week 9 College Football SRS Ratings: FSU, Oregon, Bama, and Baylor stand alone

October 27, 2013 College

Last week, five teams emerged as the upper crust of college football. That number has dropped to four, after Missouri lost to South Carolina in typical heartbreaking style. The Tigers led 17-0 entering the fourth quarter, but that was before USC starting quarterback Connor Shaw — who had been held out due to injury — […]

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FSU, Oregon, Baylor, Alabama, and Mizzou Top the Week 8 SRS Ratings

October 21, 2013 College

Last week, Florida State topped the SRS ratings. And that was before the Seminoles posted the single best performance of the season, winning at Clemson 51-14 on Saturday Night. They scored an 85.5 in the SRS against the Tigers, so FSU now has the top two games of the season (the team’s 63-0 shutout against […]

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Florida State Tops the Simple Rating System Ratings Through Seven Weeks

October 14, 2013 College

After seven weeks, the idle Seminoles remain atop the SRS Ratings. New readers can read the background about the Simple Rating System here, but the SRS simply takes margin of victory for each team (with some minor tweaks to minimize running up the score and to give credit for close wins) and adjusts that differential […]

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After Six Weeks, Baylor looks legit, but falls in the SRS Ratings

October 7, 2013 College

Last week, the Baylor Bears came in at number one in the first edition of the 2013 SRS Ratings. But the Bears ranked #1 on the strength of blowouts against bad teams; how would Baylor fare against West Virginia, who upset Oklahoma State just one week ago? Art Briles’ squad raced out to a 56-14 […]

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Five weeks in, the first edition of NCAA SRS ratings

September 30, 2013 College

It’s still too early to put much faith in any computer ratings, but we can at least begin framing the discussion of which are the most impressive teams in college football. As always, thanks to Dr. Peter Wolfe for providing the final scores for every college football game. As a reminder, here’s the system for […]

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Post-Week 3 College Football Ratings: Part II

September 15, 2013 College

Earlier today, I explained my methodology for coming up with college football ratings after three weeks. Here are the current ratings. These ratings are not capped for margin of victory (but do include a home field adjustment). That’s why Oregon tops Alabama (for now). These ratings exclude all FCS games except games where FBS teams […]

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Post-Week 3 College Football Ratings: Part I

September 15, 2013 College

With three weeks in the books, it’s time to unveil some college football ratings. This is part one — I plan to post Part II on Sunday afternoon. It’s still too early to create meaningful SRS ratings, but there’s a workaround solution. You may recall that back in the summer, I created implied college football […]

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Emerging From the Shadows

September 4, 2013 College

In 2008, the tightest division in college football was the ACC Atlantic. All six teams finished either 5-3 or 4-4. Boston College started 2-3 in conference play, but won the division after winning at Florida State, at Wake Forest, and against Maryland in the last three weeks of the regular season. The Eagles were not […]

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Implied SRS Ratings of Most College Football Teams

June 10, 2013 College

The Simple Rating System is a set of computer rankings focused on only two variables: strength of schedule and margin of victory. I published weekly college football SRS ratings each week last season, and you can read more about the SRS there. Last month, Jason Lisk of the Big Lead took the Las Vegas point […]

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Comparing Geno Smith to other Leach-Holgorsen quarterbacks

April 3, 2013 College

What does it mean that Geno Smith comes from a long line of Mike Leach/Dana Holgorsen star quarterbacks? I don’t know. At a minimum, it means he’s part of a very interesting and distinguished set of college quarterbacks. Because few players have dominated college football over the last 15 years like quarterbacks under Mike Leach […]

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Are Pick Sixes becoming more common in college football, too?

March 31, 2013 Checkdowns

On Thursday, I looked at the increase in pick sixes per interception in the NFL. Brian Fremeau asked if that was also going on at the college level, so let’s take a look. In 2012, there were 159 pick sixes according to cfbstats.com, matching the number provided at Sports-Reference.com. That’s right in line with previous […]

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Consecutive weeks with a quarterback starting from each college

March 17, 2013 College

There was a streak in jeopardy in week 17 of the 2012 season. With former Trojan Carson Palmer injured, the Raiders skipped over his former USC teammate, Matt Leinart, and started ex-Ohio State Buckeye Terrelle Pryor at quarterback for the season finale. Since the Chiefs had previously benched Matt Cassel for Brady Quinn, if it […]

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College Football: The Top Passing Games Since 2005

March 3, 2013 College

This week, I looked at the best college quarterback seasons in 2012 and over the last eight years. Today I’m going to do a quick data dump on the top passing performances by a college quarterback since 2005. I’ll be using the same formula as I did before, so check there if you want to […]

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