In this post, I introduced the Draft Pick Value Calculator. I will keep this page up to make it easy for users to access it at any time. I have also created a Jimmy Johnson Draft Value Calculator for those who would like to compare the values.
This calculator says a “fair” trade for the #3 pick (OAK-MIA) would have been the 12th pick and the 57th pick (late 2nd round). In the history of football, there isn’t a single time where this would have had a close chance of being pulled off without the team with the 3rd pick dying of laughter. Miami had no chance of using their 54th, which still would have given Oakland the edge with this simulator. There’s no way a team would say “what, you’ll give me the 12th and 57th picks in the draft for #3 overall? Sounds like an even trade!” On the contrary, Oakland probably would have laughed at the Dolphins offer (12 & 42) if they didn’t have an empty cupboard and weren’t stuck in salary cap purgatory. How can you justify the values if they aren’t realistic for trading? No offense, but if a GM followed your simulated values, at least for this pick, they’d be fired. Time to rework the math.
Thanks for the comment, Bob. Going forward, I will do my best to ensure that Tyson Jackson, Vince Young, Braylon Edwards, Joey Harrington, Gerard Warren, Akili Smith, Andre Wadsworth, and Heath Shuler all play as GMs expected them to play.
What a terrible reply Chase. This is supposed to be about VALUE for a pick. We are not talking the players in an individual draft. Some drafts are oozing with potential talent while others aren’t. If teams had known what Frank Gore, Aaron Rodgers and D. Ware would turn into in the NFl they would have been drafted higher in 2005, but at the time that class looked quite lackluster all around. On the other hand, Andrew Luck and RGIII were obvious #1 and #2 choices, and the Rams banking on Sam Bradford cashed in big in trading out of the #2 spot. If you are goign to make a value calculator, then stick to values and get them right. Don’t bring up what players do or don’t do in the NFL.
The classic NFL draft vlaue trade chart has the #3 pick worth 2,200 points. It has the 12th pick in the draft values at 1,200 points. finally it has the 57th pick valued at 330 points. That is 2,200 vs 1,530 and goes to Bob’s point. Not only is the value not even close… but you are trading DOWN from 3?! Give me a break. An even trade in value isn’t good enough for me. I would want an increase in value to pull the trigger.
Instead, with the 3rd pick at 2,200 points, if you have the 12th overall pick and want to trade up to 3, thne you had better give me next year’s pick AND a third rounder. Assuming you will be picking around the same next year, you 1st next year is only worth around that 1,000 point difference between our picks and I want incintive.
Isn’t that the point of creating a new calculator? He’s not trying to replicate the Jimmy Johnson value chart. The idea is that that one isn’t accurate. He didn’t list those players because it’s those individual players are taken into consideration, it’s because they’re good examples of high picks being overrated in the traditional trade value chart. About as many #1 picks work out as don’t, and most don’t perform as well as other guys that were taken later in the draft. All this calculator really does is discount the expected value of high picks. It’s basically just saying that there is more parity in the draft these days than traditionally modeled. He’s not saying that he expects this calculator to replace the way GM’s pick. Of course a team trading down is going to charge a premium for it. This is just a different way of calculating what the premium is.
That’s not the point. I think the takeaway from this is the promise and potential of such a high pick is greater than its actual worth. That having been said there’s still no GM that would take that deal because no one wants to be known as the guy who traded Larry Fitzgerald, Barry Sanders, Matt Ryan or Andre Johnson for a pupu platter of picks. Nice to see you cherry picked all the busts 🙂
Hrm, good point. Sometimes the #3 pick is great, and other times it’s a bust! There must be some way to account for that. What if we came up with a system that assigned a value to every player, took the average value of all the players drafted at a certain slot, and then compared that average against the average at all the other draft slots? That should tell us how much more valuable the top draft picks are over the lower draft picks.
Oh wait, that’s exactly what Chase did…
…and he didn’t do that good of a job. The professionals [Jimmy Johnson for example] has a much better value chart. most teams work within that chart becsue it is so good. Some team are simply better tan others in thier front office and scouting than others.
You really think a chart based off a handful of trades from the late 80s in the pre-free agency era is more accurate than looking at all players’ performances from the last 20+ years? Ever wonder why the smart teams like the Patriots, Eagles, and 49ers have been continually trading down? Almost like they know something the other teams don’t…
Yes, that chart is quite accurate. While some teams might be working with their own modification of the chart. your last sentence has nothing at all to do with the value of the chart. I’m a 49ers fan, but that doesn’t matter. Trading down to gain value for your picks is just good sense. Especially when you trust your scouting department and your system. unless you are targeting one of those “once in a generation” prospects (such as LT, Julius Peppers, megatron and so forth) it is a good idea to trade down and aquire multiple picks. You are more likely to strike it rich when you buy more lottery tickets. Outside of the 2011 draft, the 49ers aren’t picking high, but they have been picking multiple times in the first 3 rounds. They came into the 2014 draft with 7 picks in the first 3 rounds and used some of those picks to generate more future value because they can]. Again ,that concept has nothing to do with how you as an organization and the other organization VALUE your picks. We are not NFL GM’s, but please, if you want to play something like Madden and use this draft calculator and I’ll use the classic chart and we can trade until your heart’s content. I know that I’ll be happy with any trades I make with you, feeling I got good value. Feel free to give me the #3 overall pick for a 12 and 57th pick. I’ll take the 1,000 or so point advtange out of the trade and then trade down from it to generate even more value.
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