Charles Woodson Returns To Oakland: Now Where Does He Rank?

by Chase Stuart on May 23, 2013

in History

Woodson forces a key incompletion.

Woodson forces a key incompletion.

Charles Woodson is back in Silver and Black. Woodson was drafted by Oakland with the 4th pick in the 1998 Draft and had a very good eight-year run with the Raiders. But he saw experienced even more success with the Packers, and the two biggest highlights of his career — winning the AP Defensive Player of the Year Award in 2009 and Super Bowl XLV — came during his time in Green Bay. Woodson has had a star-studded career, beating Peyton Manning for the Heisman Trophy in 1997 and being selected to eight Pro Bowls in fifteen years in the NFL.

Now the real question? Where does Woodson rank among players who returned to their original team? I’m going to institute a five-year rule on the amount of time that must be spent away from the first franchise, which both narrows down the list and meets the spirit of the post. Otherwise we’ll have to include people like Jason Taylor was in Miami from 1997 to 2007, Washington in 2008, Miami in 2009, the Jets in 2010, and the Dolphins again in 2011. Instead, the list will be dominated by one franchise, which holds my top three spots. See if you can figure it out before you get to the bottom. And my apologies for not putting this in a slideshow.

#10: Herschel Walker, Dallas Cowboys (1986-1989; 1996-1997)

Walker is remembered for the Herschel Walker trade, which helped the Cowboys win the Super Bowl in 1992, 1993, and 1995. Walker returned in ’96, but alas, Dallas’ window had already been closed by then. It’s a shame that Walker’s production is not how his career is defined, because he was a Hall of Fame caliber back. After winning the Heisman Trophy in 1982, Walker joined the USFL and led the league with 1,812 rushing yards in 1983. Two years later, Walker had an even more dominant season for the New Jersey Generals: he rushed for 2,411 yards and 21 touchdowns and caught 37 passes for 467 yards. Walker then joined the Cowboys and gained 5,199 yards from scrimmage in his first three years, the second highest total in the league over that span behind Eric Dickerson. That prompted the Herschel Walker trade to the Vikings, where Walker did not prove to be the player to put the Vikings over the top in the NFC. Walker spent time with the Eagles and Giants before a 34-year-old Walker joined the Cowboys for two throwaway seasons.

#9: Earnest Byner, Cleveland Browns (1984-1988; 1994-1995)
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Wherefore Art Thou Fullback?

by Chase Stuart on May 22, 2013

in History

No average fullback.

No average fullback.

When you think of the fullback in today’s game, you probably think of a player like Vonta Leach, widely regarded as the best blocking back in the NFL. There are also the H-Back/receiving fullback types, like Marcel Reece or James Casey, and the rushing fullbacks like Le’Ron McClain, Jacob Hester, and Mike Tolbert. And it’s the fullbacks who double as goal line threats like John Kuhn and Jed Collins who get the most attention from fantasy players. But the fullback position was not always so specialized.

In fact, fullback used to be the glamor spot in the backfield, and that’s the position played by Marion Motley, Dan Towler, Tank Younger, Joe Perry, Alan Ameche, John Henry Johnson, Rick Casares, and the great Jim Brown. Jim Taylor and Paul Hornung both played fullback in Green Bay, while Keith Lincoln and Cookie Gilchrist were great fullbacks in the AFL. In 1966, Minnesota fullback Bill Brown led the NFL in carries. That wasn’t unusual, as fullbacks were key parts of rushing attacks in that decade: the four leading rushers of the ’60s — Jim Brown, Jim Taylor, Don Perkins, and Dick Bass — were all fullbacks. In 1965, fullback Tom Nowatzke went 4th overall in the AFL Draft while Ken Willard (a future four-time Pro Bowler) went second overall in the NFL Draft… just ahead of Dick Butkus and Gale Sayers.

The ’70s were dominated by great fullbacks, as future Super Bowl MVPs Larry Csonka, John Riggins, and Franco Harris were among the game’s best players. And while lacking in star power, Sam Cunningham, Mark van Eeghen, and Pete Johnson were all Pro Bowl-caliber players and key parts of their team’s offenses, too. As the passing game opened up after 1978, the role of the fullback changed. William Andrews was the throwback, but Roger Craig and James Wilder entered the league as fullbacks at a time when the position was evolving into a more specialized role, and had their best seasons after switching to halfback. In Wilder’s case, Tampa Bay switched to a two-tight end offense to get Jerry Bell and Jimmie Giles on the field (and removing running back Mel Carver from the field was an added bonus). For Craig, he played fullback when he was joined in the backfield with Wendell Tyler and Joe Cribbs and halfback when Tom Rathman replaced them.

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Tagged as: Fullbacks

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The Most Pass-Happy Coaches in NFL History

by Chase Stuart on May 21, 2013

in Coaches, History

Belichick checks to see where he is on the list.

Belichick checks to see where he is on the list.

Yesterday, I looked at the most pass-happy active head coaches and offensive coordinators in the NFL. If you’ve been a loyal reader of my previous posts on Game Scripts, you understand the methodology I’ve used today to grade each coaches. The quick summary is I’ve come up with the term “Game Scripts” to determine the average points margin over each of the 3600 seconds in each game; from there, I also came up with Game Scripts scores for each season.  If you then take each coach’s pass/run ratio, adjust for the league average pass/run ratio, and then adjust for Game Scripts, then you can determine each coach’s passing identity.  I’ve done this for every season since 1940.

The table below lists the 252 coaches I have in my database who have been either a head coach or an offensive coordinator for at least four seasons. I suggest using the search box to find your favorite coaches, but as always, all columns are sortable, too. In the table below, the number of HC/OC seasons includes all seasons, but the games, wins, losses, ties, winning percentage, and wins over .500 columns all include only the coach’s records as a head coach. The Game Script column shows each coach’s average Game Scripts average over each season, while the “P/R” column does the same for pass/run ratio.  The next three columns are all indexes centered around 100. The “SCRIPT” column is the Game Scripts rating, the “PASS” column is the Pass/Run Ratio rating, and the Pass Identity column is a combination of the two columns. (You can read some of the other Game Scripts articles for more explanation).  Based on his time in Green Bay with Aaron Rodgers, Joe Philbin comes in as the most pass-happy coach, but that number seems likely to decline the longer he coaches. George Seifert built his reputation as the defensive coordinator for the 49ers, but having Joe Montana, Steve Young, and Jerry Rice turned him into a pass-friendly coach. As for the next two men on the list, modern NFL fans need no further explanation.
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Tagged as: Bill Belichick, Don Shula, Game Scripts, Paul Brown, Vince Lombardi

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Which coaches are the most pass happy?

by Chase Stuart on May 20, 2013

in Coaches

Mike Smith checks the score, calls for a pass.

Mike Smith checks the score, calls for a pass.

One reason I came up with the concept of Game Scripts was to identify the most pass-happy coaches. Remember, a team’s Game Script score is simply their average scoring differential over each second of every game. Last year, the Falcons were the most pass-happy team in the NFL after adjusting for Game Scripts; Atlanta had the 5th highest Game Script (average lead of 3.6 points) and the 7th highest Pass/Run Ratio (63.0%). To put that in perspective, none of the other top 16 teams in Game Scripts had a Pass/Run Ratio of even sixty percent. The Falcons used to be run-heavy, of course, but as Michael Turner aged while Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and Roddy White matured, they’ve become a passing team.

There will be 64 head coaches and offensive coordinators in 2013; I went back and looked at every season those coaches were either head coaches or offensive coordinators in the NFL.1 Two head coaches — Gus Bradley in Jacksonville and Chip Kelly in Philadelphia — have never been a head coach or offensive coordinator at the NFL level. In addition, the following seven offensive coordinators will be entering those roles for the first time, too: Harold Goodwin (Arizona), Nathaniel Hackett (Buffalo), Adam Gase (Denver), Pep Hamilton (Indianapolis), Jedd Fisch (Jacksonville), Doug Pederson (Kansas City), and Dowell Loggains (Tennessee). The table below shows the career Game Scripts averages, Pass/Run Ratios, and Pass Identities for the other 55 head coaches/offensive coordinators entering 2013.

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  1. At least, according to my database. I won’t have missed any head coaching years, but it’s possible I’ve missed some seasons where a coach was also an offensive coordinator. [↩]

Tagged as: Game Scripts

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Fantasy Football: Yearly Trends in VBD (FBG)

by Chase Stuart on May 19, 2013

in Fantasy, History, Statistics

Over at Footballguys.com, I analyzed how the fantasy value of quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends have changed since 1990. The NFL is a very different beast than it was 23 years ago, but you might be surprised to see what that means for fantasy football. To measure value, I examined the VBD curves for each of the four major positions in fantasy football.

For those unfamiliar with VBD, you can read Joe Bryant’s landmark article here. The guiding principle is that the value of a player is determined not by the number of points he scores but by how much he outscores his peers at his particular position. This means that in a league that starts 12 quarterbacks, each quarterback’s VBD score is the difference between his fantasy points and the fantasy points scored by the 12th best quarterback. The cut-offs at the other positions are 12, 24, and 36, for tight ends, running backs, and wide receivers, respectively.

The NFL in 2013 won’t closely resemble how the league looked in 1990, but what does that mean for fantasy football? To determine that, we need to see if VBD has evolved with the rest of the football statistics. Let’s start with a graph displaying number of fantasy points scored by the last starter at each position since 1990. As you can see, quarterback scoring has risen significantly over the last two decades, and the production of the 12th tight end has nearly doubled over that time period.

Worst Starter Since 1990

You can see the full article here.

Tagged as: Footballguys.com

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Longest Streaks without a 1,000-yard rusher

by Chase Stuart on May 18, 2013

in Trivia

Two weeks ago, I looked at the longest streaks where a team failed to have a player rush for 100 yards. Richie asked me if I could run the numbers on the longest streaks without a 1,000-yard rusher. The longest active streak in the NFL belongs to the Detroit Lions, who have not boasted a 1,000-yard rusher since Kevin Jones rushed for 1,133 yards as a rookie in 2004. Will Reggie Bush or Mikel Leshoure end that streak in 2013? Probably not.

It’s hard to look at these streaks across NFL history. For example, New York entered the NFL in 1925 and no Giant rushed for 1,000 yards until Ron A. Johnson in 1970. The Lions didn’t have a 1,000-yard rushing in their first 41 years, either. But we can look at the longest streaks that starter after the AFL-NFL merger. The modern Lions are the 12th team to go eight straight years without a 1,000 yard rusher over the last 43 years. As the longest streak? Well now we know why Miami drafted three running backs in consecutive rounds in 1996.

Team
First Yr
Last Yr
Yrs
Streak Breaker
MIA1979199517Karim Abdul-Jabbar
CLE1986200416Reuben Droughns
GNB1979199416Edgar Bennett
NYG1973198412Joe Morris
MIN1982199110Terry Allen
NOR1990199910Ricky Williams
NYJ1986199510Adrian Murrell
KAN199220009Priest Holmes
RAI198619949Harvey Williams
DET200520128--
DET197219798Billy Sims
NYJ197619838Freeman McNeil
PIT198419918Barry Foster

Insert obligatory Dan Marino comment here.

Tagged as: Weekend Trivia

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Examining Previous Eddie Lacy/Johnathan Franklin pairs

May 17, 2013 Draft

Green Bay didn’t use a first round pick on a running back, but the Packers did spend a second round pick on Alabama’s Eddie Lacy and a fourth round pick on UCLA’s Johnathan Franklin.  How much weight should we put on draft status when one team drafts two running backs just a couple of rounds [...]

Tagged as: Eddie Lacy, Johnathan Franklin

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Are the Chiefs better than your average worst team?

May 16, 2013 Random Perspective On

How bad were the Chiefs last year? Kansas City went 2-14, tied for the worst record in the league with Jacksonville. Since the Chiefs faced an easier schedule, they received the first pick. With an Simple Rating System score of -14.0, Kansas City had the worst SRS rating in the league. They ranked 32nd in [...]

Tagged as: Alex Smith, Andy Reid, Chiefs, Chris Ault, Jamaal Charles, RPO 2013

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Quarterbacks Were Healthier Than Ever in 2012

May 15, 2013 Quarterbacks

Twenty quarterbacks started all sixteen games last season: Eli Manning Tony Romo Andrew Luck Russell Wilson Peyton Manning Matthew Stafford Sam Bradford Aaron Rodgers Matt Schaub Ryan Tannehill Matt Ryan Christian Ponder Drew Brees Ryan Fitzpatrick Tom Brady Josh Freeman Cam Newton Philip Rivers Joe Flacco Andy Dalton Mark Sanchez started 15 games for the [...]

Tagged as: Concussions, Health, QB Starts

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Placing Cecil Shorts’ Production in Context

May 14, 2013 Receiving

One of the surprising success stories of the 2012 season was the breakout performance of second-year Jacksonville wide receiver Cecil Shorts. With a cap value of $729,000 in 2013, Shorts is probably the best value on the Jaguars roster. But he’s one of the more confusing players to project. The optimistic outlook on Shorts is [...]

Tagged as: Cecil Shorts, Jaguars, Justin Blackmon

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