The 2018 NFL Draft was supposed to change the landscape of the NFL at the quarterback position. Maybe not right away, of course, but in a few years — say, 2021? — the five quarterbacks selected in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft would be the stars of the day. Instead, Josh Rosen flamed out immediately, Sam Darnold proved to be underwhelming under three different coaches, and Baker Mayfield’s stock fell dramatically in his fourth year. Even Lamar Jackson, the 2019 AP MVP, has fallen off; after a notable dropoff in play from 2019 to 2020, he fell further in an injury-plagued 2021. At this point, only Josh Allen is an unimpeachable franchise quarterback, but even he has seen a significant decline in passing efficiency this season.

All told, the 2018 first round quarterbacks as a group have been decidedly below average as passers this season, with three of the four starters (excluding Rosen) being in the bottom five of the NFL in interception rate.

This made me curious: which draft classes have been the most productive in 2021? With 17 weeks in the books — a traditional NFL regular season — here’s what I did.

1. Calculate each quarterback’s ANY/A average this season.  ANY/A is calculated as follows: (Passing Yards + 20 * Passing TDs – 45 * INTs – Sack Yards Lost) / (Pass Attempts + Sacks).
2. The NFL average among quarterbacks in 2021 is 6.07 ANY/A.  For each quarterback, calculate how much passing value he provided by taking his ANY/A, subtract 6.07 from that number, and multiplying it by his number of dropbacks.  For Aaron Rodgers, for example, he is averaging 7.99 ANY/A on 540 dropbacks; as a result, he has provided 1,040 yards of value this season relative to league average, the most in the NFL.  Trevor Lawrence has averaged 4.36 ANY/A on 601 dropbacks; he therefore has provided -1,026 yards of value this year relative to average, the worst in the NFL.
3. For each draft class, sum the grades for each quarterback in that draft class determined in Step #2 to come up with a Draft Class grade.  The 2014 Draft Class has just four quarterbacks left: Jimmy Garoppolo (+609 of value added), Derek Carr (+380), Teddy Bridgewater (+113), and Garrett Gilbert (-26 in one start for Washington).  So the 2014 Class gets a grade of +1,076.  Believe it or not, that’s actually the second most productive draft class in 2021.

The chart below shows the 2021 passing value added over average by each draft class.  The 2020 Draft, powered by Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert, lead the way.  And not only is the much-hyped 2018 Class below average, it’s remarkably below-average; only this year’s poor crop of rookies is worse. In fairness to the 2018 Class, they did provide a significant amount of rushing value added: Allen and Jackson both have at least 700 rushing yards, and Darnold has five rushing touchdowns.  But from a passing standpoint, it’s fair to say that Mayfield and Darnold significantly disappointed this year, while Allen and Jackson both suffered notable declines in efficiency. And the less said about Rosen, the better.

We can also perform the exact same analysis using age (as of December 31, 2021) instead of draft class.  Here, it’s the 33-year-olds — Matthew Stafford, Kirk Cousins, and Russell Wilson — that stand out as the top bracket.  And it probably feels weird to group them together in your head, but Josh Allen and Joe Burrow were both born in 1996, as was Gardner Minshew.  The 25-year-olds narrowly best the “38-year-olds” (aka the Aaron Rodgers group) in this chart.  It’s interesting to look at similar data in different ways; whereas the 2020 Draft Class was the top provider of value, by grouping players by age, we separate Burrow and Herbert.  And now the 23-year-olds, which is headlined by Herbert but includes a bunch of below-average passers, checks in as below average.

Finally, we can also look at the same data but group quarterbacks by draft round.  There is lots of survivorship bias at play here, particularly when it comes to 4th round quarterbacks. There are only four: Kirk Cousins and Dak Prescott, who added a lot of passing value, and Jacob Eason and Ian Book, who combined for just 33 dropbacks.  So while it would be poor data analysis to look at the graph below and say you should target your quarterbacks in the 4th round of the draft, I still think the information is nonetheless interesting to present:

Even better draft hack: select your quarterback at 199 overall, but don’t have it be Luke Falk.

Finally, here’s the raw data.

Rk	Quarterback	Age	Draft Yr	Draft Rd	Tm	ANY	DB	ANY/A	VAL
1	Aaron Rodgers	38	2005	1	GNB	4317	540	7.99	1040
2	Matthew Stafford	33	2009	1	LAR	4527	594	7.62	923
3	Tom Brady	44	2000	6	TAM	5108	703	7.27	842
4	Joe Burrow	25	2020	1	CIN	4291	571	7.51	826
5	Patrick Mahomes	26	2017	1	KAN	4553	641	7.10	663
6	Kirk Cousins	33	2012	4	MIN	4082	564	7.24	660
7	Justin Herbert	23	2020	1	LAC	4515	636	7.10	656
8	Jimmy Garoppolo	30	2014	2	SFO	3249	435	7.47	609
9	Dak Prescott	28	2016	4	DAL	4201	598	7.03	572
10	Kyler Murray	24	2019	1	ARI	3324	468	7.10	484
11	Derek Carr	30	2014	2	LVR	4185	627	6.67	380
12	Russell Wilson	33	2012	3	SEA	2833	406	6.98	369
13	Carson Wentz	29	2016	1	IND	3447	513	6.72	334
14	Josh Allen	25	2018	1	BUF	4009	627	6.39	204
15	Jameis Winston	27	2015	1	NOR	1246	172	7.24	202
16	Brian Hoyer	36			NWE	247	11	22.45	180
17	Trey Lance	21	2021	1	SFO	598	75	7.97	143
18	Jalen Hurts	23	2020	2	PHI	2909	458	6.35	130
19	Joe Flacco	36	2008	1	NYJ	385	44	8.75	118
20	Teddy Bridgewater	29	2014	1	DEN	2886	457	6.32	113
21	Cooper Rush	28			DAL	408	49	8.33	111
22	Gardner Minshew II	25	2019	6	PHI	284	29	9.79	108
23	Josh Johnson	35	2008	5	2TM	625	88	7.10	91
24	Colt McCoy	35	2010	3	ARI	715	105	6.81	78
25	Mac Jones	23	2021	1	NWE	3195	517	6.18	58
26	C.J. Beathard	28	2017	3	JAX	33	2	16.50	21
27	Nick Foles	32	2012	3	CHI	249	39	6.38	12
28	Kyle Allen	25			WAS	135	21	6.43	8
29	Brandon Allen	29	2016	6	CIN	33	5	6.60	3
30	Blaine Gabbert	32	2011	1	TAM	57	10	5.70	-4
31	Marcus Mariota	28	2015	1	LVR	0	1	0.00	-6
32	David Blough	26			DET	-6	1	-6.00	-12
33	Brett Rypien	25			DEN	0	2	0.00	-12
34	Kellen Mond	22	2021	3	MIN	5	3	1.67	-13
35	Nick Mullens	26			CLE	167	30	5.57	-15
36	Chad Henne	36	2008	2	KAN	82	16	5.13	-15
37	Geno Smith	31	2013	2	SEA	640	108	5.93	-15
38	Garrett Gilbert	30	2014	6	WAS	174	33	5.27	-26
39	Trevor Siemian	30	2015	7	NOR	1068	181	5.90	-30
40	Ryan Fitzpatrick	39	2005	7	WAS	11	7	1.57	-31
41	Case Keenum	33			CLE	282	52	5.42	-34
42	Sean Mannion	29	2015	3	MIN	194	38	5.11	-37
43	Matt Ryan	36	2008	1	ATL	3384	564	6.00	-38
44	Chris Streveler	26			ARI	19	11	1.73	-48
45	Jordan Love	23	2020	1	GNB	237	47	5.04	-48
46	Drew Lock	25	2019	2	DEN	528	95	5.56	-48
47	Jacob Eason	24	2020	4	IND	-20	5	-4.00	-50
48	Feleipe Franks	24			ATL	-45	1	-45.00	-51
49	Mitchell Trubisky	27	2017	1	BUF	-17	7	-2.43	-59
50	John Wolford	26			LAR	-48	5	-9.60	-78
51	Tua Tagovailoa	23	2020	1	MIA	2248	385	5.84	-88
52	Mason Rudolph	26	2018	3	PIT	252	58	4.34	-100
53	Lamar Jackson	24	2018	1	BAL	2427	420	5.78	-122
54	Josh Rosen	24	2018	1	ATL	-71	11	-6.45	-138
55	Jake Fromm	23	2020	5	NYG	49	32	1.53	-145
56	Mike White	26	2018	5	NYJ	675	136	4.96	-150
57	Daniel Jones	24	2019	1	NYG	2153	383	5.62	-171
58	Taysom Hill	31			NOR	642	134	4.79	-171
59	Ian Book	23	2021	4	NOR	-9	28	-0.32	-179
60	Tyler Huntley	23			BAL	812	172	4.72	-232
61	P.J. Walker	26			CAR	200	73	2.74	-243
62	Tim Boyle	27			DET	316	94	3.36	-254
63	Tyrod Taylor	32	2011	6	HOU	722	163	4.43	-267
64	Andy Dalton	34	2011	2	CHI	931	199	4.68	-277
65	Baker Mayfield	26	2018	1	CLE	2496	461	5.41	-301
66	Jared Goff	27	2016	1	DET	2715	498	5.45	-307
67	Taylor Heinicke	28			WAS	2767	511	5.41	-334
68	Ben Roethlisberger	39	2004	1	PIT	3281	598	5.49	-348
69	Cam Newton	32	2011	1	CAR	456	136	3.35	-369
70	Davis Mills	23	2021	3	HOU	1979	390	5.07	-388
71	Jacoby Brissett	29	2016	3	MIA	1071	244	4.39	-410
72	Ryan Tannehill	33	2012	1	TEN	2836	545	5.20	-471
73	Justin Fields	22	2021	1	CHI	1296	306	4.24	-561
74	Sam Darnold	24	2018	1	CAR	1716	397	4.32	-693
75	Mike Glennon	32	2013	3	NYG	348	176	1.98	-720
76	Zach Wilson	22	2021	1	NYJ	1621	399	4.06	-800
77	Trevor Lawrence	22	2021	1	JAX	2621	601	4.36	-1026

What stands out to you?