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Football in the Northeast is Back

The New England Patriots, New York Giants, New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles are undeniably in the northeast. I think most would include the Buffalo Bills are as well, although they do play in western New York. The state of Pennsylvania is commonly included in the northeast, but I don’t think it’s reasonable to include Pittsburgh, on the western border, in as a team in the northeast. The Baltimore Ravens are only 100 miles away from Philadelphia, but they are also only 40 miles from Washington, D.C., and no sensible definition of “Northeast” should include the nation’s capital.

So I’m going to stick with the NE-NYG-NYJ-PHI-BUF pairing as the definition of Northeast football. And only two years ago, it looked really bad:

  • The Patriots, mostly behind Cam Newton, had an abysmal passing attack that finished with just 12 touchdowns against 14 interceptions.  New England fell to 7-9, the first time the Patriots didn’t have a winning record since 2000.
  • The Giants went 6-10 under the triumvirate of GM Dave Gettleman, HC Joe Judge, and OC Jason Garrett.  New York finished 31st in scoring and 23-year-old Daniel Jones looked like a bust.
  • The Jets didn’t look any better: once again, the Jets had a bad head coach (Adam Gase) and a highly-drafted quarterback (Sam Darnold) who looked like a bust.  New York finished 2-14 and 32nd in scoring, also known as last.
  • The Eagles were about to blow it up: the reign of Doug Pederson and Carson Wentz had crashed in spectacular fashion. The Eagles ranked last in passing efficiency (ANY/A), completion percentage and sack rate as Wentz led the NFL in interceptions.  After a 4-11-1 finish, the memories of Super Bowl LII felt very far away.
  • Only in Buffalo was there any semblance of pro football talent, as the Bills finished 13-3 before losing in Arrowhead to the Chiefs in the AFCCG.

Through 7 weeks in 2020, the five teams in the northeast went 10-23-1, a 0.309 winning percentage that was the worst start to the season for this group since 1976.  But this year, these same teams are off to a very different start.

  • The Patriots… well, okay the Patriots are still struggling in the passing game (leading the NFL in interception rate, a New England impossibility in modern times), and have a 3-4 record.  But New England has still outscored its opponents, and ranks in the top 8 of the NFL in both net yards per pass and net yards per pass allowed.
  • The Giants are a shocking 6-1 with new HC Brian Daboll a leading candidate for Coach of the Year.  Jones is still the quarterback, and while his future is unknown, he has played significantly better in ’22 than he did in ’20, in large part because of his success as a runner.
  • The Jets are a very surprising 5-2, although much of that success has been driven by the defense.  Both the Giants and Jets still rank in the bottom 10 in passing ANY/A, and while 23-year-old Zach Wilson has not played well this season, the Jets are a sparkling 4-0 with him under center.
  • The Eagles, behind young QB Jalen Hurts, are 6-0 and the last undefeated team in the NFL. The Eagles are in the top 5 in points scored, total yards, turnovers, rushing touchdowns, and net yards per pass attempt.  If Daboll doesn’t win the CotY award, it may be because of Nick Sirianni.
  • The Bills, well, remain dominant.  Buffalo is widely considered the best team in the NFL, and Josh Allen is the MVP favorite.

Through 7 weeks, the northeast football teams are 25-8, producing a sparkling 0.758 winning percentage. How good is that? Well, it’s the best mark this quintet of teams has ever had through 7 weeks.

The Bills and Eagles appear dominant, the most likely winners in their conference. The Jets and Giants are the surprises of their conference, although their unusual path (and underwhelming passing games) lead to questions about the sustainability of their success. The Patriots are coming off an awful game in week 7, and the most unusual part of this story is seeing New England as the weakest team in the northeast (for now).

Still, given how bad things looked just two years ago at this time, it’s noteworthy how dominant football teams in the northeast have been in 2022.

Update: If you don’t want to include Buffalo in the northeast, the results are not very different. Removing Buffalo leaves the 2020 teams with a 5-21-1 record, the worst mark for NE/NYJ/NYG/PHI through 7 weeks of any year in history. This year, they are 20-7, the 2nd-best mark for this quartet of teams since 1960 (in 2004, they were 21-3!).

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