The story of the college football season had been the lack of any crazy upsets. It felt as though we were on a predetermined path to the college football playoffs, with Alabama, Clemson, Washington, and the Ohio State/Michigan winner taking the four spots.

Then, Saturday happened. The six best teams this year have combined to lose just five games, and *three* of them came in week eleven:

• Pittsburgh went into Clemson and won, 43-42. This was a shocking upset: the Tigers were favored by 21.5 points.

• Less of an upset was seeing USC (+10) go in to Seattle and double up the Huskies, 26-13.  This registered as the 2nd most dominant win of the week, behind only Ohio State’s 62-3 thrashing of Maryland.

• And then the most shocking development of the weekend: Michigan, #1 in the SRS last week, falling to Iowa in Iowa City.  The Wolverines were 24-point favorites, and would have been 22.7-point SRS favorites over a Hawkeyes team that ranked 44th in the SRS a few days ago.

Oh, and in addition to Ohio State taking care of business, Alabama crushed MSU, 51-3, for the 3rd best SRS game of the week.  Below are the single-game SRS ratings from week 11:

And how does the season-to-date SRS shake out? Well, the top six doesn’t change, but the order sure does: Alabama jumps to #1, Ohio State to #2, and Clemson down to #6.

Through 9 games against FBS competition, 6 of Clemson’s games have been decided by 7 or fewer points. This time last year, Clemson won 7 of its first 9 games against FBS competition by double digits. So the Tigers are certainly having some hangover effect, though outscoring Boston College and Syracuse by 100 points has helped maintain their season-long stats.

Louisville has — and will likely finish with — the easiest SOS of any of the major playoff challengers. They travel to #33 Houston this week for a key Thursday game, but it remains to be seen how the committee will value them.

At this point, Alabama is the only team that is a virtual lock to make the playoffs. Even with one loss (to either Auburn or in the SECCG), it’s hard to see Alabama not making it to the playoffs.

After that? Clemson is probably the safest bet: even after a bad weekend, the Tigers have a great shot to make the postseason. The two final games should be cupcakes (Wake Forest, South Carolina), and the ACCCG will be a test but is more likely to bolster Clemson’s SOS than give the Tigers another blemish. The Tigers will likely finish 12-1, with wins over Louisville, Auburn, Florida State, and Virginia Tech or North Carolina. That’s a great resume, and as ACC Champions, Clemson should be in… if they win out.

Michigan is surely in if the Wolverines win out: they would be 12-1 with wins over Ohio State, Wisconsin (twice), and Penn State. That’s four really strong wins, and a conference title. Of course, actually beating Ohio State is no easy task, so I’d say Clemson is in a better position right now.

Ohio State? Well, a win over Michigan will be a huge boost, but that just puts Penn State in as the B1G East champs. Penn State isn’t losing to MSU or Rutgers, so the Nittany Lions will win the division if Ohio State beats Michigan. There is some precedent for a non-division winner advancing: after all, LSU and Alabama met in a rematch in 2011 under the old system. If you have Alabama, a 12-1 Clemson that won the ACC, a 12-1 Washington that won the Pac-12, the fourth slot is going to go to …. well, Louisville is the natural competitor, but they have the same drawback (didn’t win the division) as Ohio State. It would be weird to see Penn State and Wisconsin play in a B1G title game while Ohio State has a bye to the playoffs, but we know that the committee will break ties in favor of the Buckeyes (see 2014).

As for Louisville/Washington, that’s where it will get interesting. Washington will have to still beat WAZZOU and Colorado, Utah, or USC in the P12CG. That won’t be easy, which is good news for Louisville. And having the likely Heisman Trophy winner is good news for Louisville, too. But I imagine a 12-1 Washington, especially if they can get revenge against USC in the P12CG, would get that final spot.