The rankings haven’t changed much from last week. Here’s how the top 15 teams in the SRS last week fared in week 13:

• #1 Alabama handled Auburn in the Iron Bowl, 30-12. The Crimson Tide is a lock for the playoffs, even if they lose in the SECCG (which they’re not going to do).

• #2 Ohio State beat Michigan in perhaps the game of the college football season, 30-27 in double overtime. Ohio State seems like a lock for the playoffs; the Buckeyes regular season is over, as Penn State won the Big 10 East.

• #3 Michigan lost to Ohio State. Michigan’s playoff chances appear dead in the water.

• #4 Washington had the single best game of the week, according to the SRS, beating Washington State in the Apple Cup, 45-17.  It was the 5th best single game score of the year. Washington looks to be in a “win and they’re in” situation, as the Huskies will face Colorado in the P12CG.

• #5 Clemson blew the doors off of South Carolina, 56-7, to finish the regular season 11-1.  The Tigers are in a “win and they’re in” scenario against Virginia Tech in the ACCCG.

• #6 Colorado beat Utah, at home, 27-22, to capture the Pac 12 South.  The Buffaloes may well be in a “win and they’re in” situation in the P12CG against Washington.  More on that in a bit.

• #7 Wisconsin handled Minnesota, 31-17.  Wisconsin won the Big 10 West, and will face Penn State in the B10CG.

• #8 Southern Cal beat Notre Dame, 45-27, but USC’s season is over now that Colorado has won the South.

• #9 Louisville shockingly lost to Kentucky, 41-38. Louisville finished the year 9-3, with two straight bad losses.

• #10 Washington State lost to Washington, ending WAZZOU’s playoff hopes.

• #11 Oklahoma was off.  The Sooners can still win the conference at 10-2 with a win in the de facto B12CG this weekend against Oklahoma State.

• #12 Penn State beat Michigan State, 45-12.  The Nittany Lions will face Wisconsin in the B10CG.

Below are the week 13 SRS results:

And here are the SRS season-to-date ratings as of the end of the regular season:

Michigan is a top-3 team in the SRS and maybe a top-3 team by the eye test, but the Wolverines are out of the playoff hunt. The Ohio State game functioned as a play-in game, and Michigan lost: I don’t see how the committee puts a 2-loss team that finishes 3rd in its own division over any 2-loss conference champion.

It seems reasonable to assume that Alabama and Ohio State are locks. Even if Alabama lost in the SECCG, both Alabama and Ohio State would be two of only four teams with just one loss, and it’s hard to see what 2-loss team would be ahead of either school. Western Michigan, at 12-0, seems to have no chance of cracking the playoffs, even with a win over Ohio in the MAC Championship Game.

Clemson, of course, is in with a win. A loss, and the Tigers would seem likely to be shut out of the playoffs, if for no other reason than recency bias. That’s because the Big 10, Big 12, and Pac 12 will all have strong champions with resumes that look better than a 2-loss, non-ACC champion. Let’s look at those three championship games, in ascending order of importance:

Big 12 Championship Game: Oklahoma (9-2, #11 in the SRS) vs. Oklahoma State (9-2, #22), in Norman

The Big 12 will have a 10-2 conference champion.  If it’s Oklahoma, the Sooners will have an impressive 9-0 conference record, with losses to Houston and Ohio State.  The problem? The only nonconference win was against Louisiana-Monroe, and the B12 simply wasn’t that good this year.

Oklahoma has a better SRS rating than Oklahoma State, but the Cowboys may have the better playoff argument.  That’s because at 10-2, OSU could argue that they should be considered an 11-1 conference champion with an impressive win over Pittsburgh (who beat both Penn State and Clemson).  With the possible exception of West Virginia over BYU, that was the best non-conference win of the season by a B12 team.

As for why Oklahoma State would be considered 11-1? Well, OSU lost to Central Michigan in a game that the officials have since acknowledged should have ended with the Cowboys as the victors.  After the game ended, an additional (and improper) untimed down was awarded to CMU, and Oklahoma State lost on that final play.  Who knows whether or not the committee would consider OSU as a 1.5-loss team or not, but that seems to be the best argument for a B12 team (or, said another way, I don’t see much of an argument for a 10-2 Oklahoma team).

Big 10 Championship Game: Penn State (10-2, #9) vs. Wisconsin (10-2, #6)

Wisconsin is ahead of PSU in the SRS, and an 11-2 Badgers team would seem to have the stronger case for a playoff nod than an 11-2 Nittany Lions.  Why?

• Both teams lost to Michigan, but Wisconsin lost by 7 and Penn State lost by 39.
• Both teams lost a very close game, but Wisconsin lost in overtime to a great Ohio State team, while Penn State lost 42-39 to a less-than-great Pitt team.
• Penn State does have the best win of the season — beating Ohio State — but Wisconsin does have a win over LSU on its resume.

Both PSU and Wisconsin had similar schedules — facing OSU, Michigan, Iowa, and Minnesota — but Wisconsin also faced Northwestern and Nebraska, and had the toughest non-conference game.  So it would seem as though Wisconsin is the conference’s best hope for a playoff contender.

That said, I think both schools appear more “deserving” than a Big 12 champion, particularly given the fact that Oklahoma lost to Ohio State.  That said, this only matters if there is an upset in either the ACC CG, or the Pac-12 CG:

3) Pac 12 Championship Game: Washington (11-1, #4) vs. Colorado (10-2, #7) at Levi’s Stadium (San Francisco)

With a win, Washington is definitely in.  At 12-1 and with a conference title, the Huskies are in.  Sure, Washington didn’t play anyone notable out of conference, but the P12 was the best conference in college football this season.  Losing to USC is not embarrassing, and wins over Colorado, Washington State, Stanford, and Utah is impressive.

Where things get interesting is if Colorado wins.  The real question for the committee would be how do you compare 11-2 P12 Champion Colorado to 11-2 B10 Championship Wisconsin or 11-2 B10 Champion Penn State?

I have no clue, and neither would the committee.  Ironically, all three teams lost to Michigan. Colorado’s other loss was to USC, while its big wins would be over Washington, Washington State, Stanford, and Utah.  I *think* Wisconsin would get the nod over Colorado due to a much closer loss to Michigan and the better non-conference game.  Those seem like reasonable and objective pegs for the committee to hang their hats.

As for Colorado vs. Penn State? I have no clue, although it’s likely non-football reasons (Penn State has the bigger alumni base vs. how smart is it, ratings-wise, to have zero teams west of Ohio in the playoffs) carry the day there.

Finally, here is my thoughts on the college football hierarchy: