## Pittsburgh’s Aaron Donald Was Your Combine MVP

Building on yesterday’s post, I decided to crown a combine MVP because it’s February and there’s nothing else to do. I looked at each player’s combine results, courtesy of the great NFLSavant.com, in four different tests.

40-yard dash

There were 268 players with 40-yard dash times posted at NFL Savant. I ran a regression using weight as the input and 40-yard time as the output, and the best-fit formula (R^2 of 0.75) was:

[math]Expected 40 Time = 3.433 + 0.00554 * Weight[/math]

Using this formula, Jadeveon Clowney, with a weight of 266 pounds, would be projected to run the 40 in 4.91 seconds. Since he actually ran the 40 in 4.53 seconds, he gets credited for finishing +0.38 seconds above expectation. That was the best of any player in Indianapolis this year. The table below shows, for each of the 268 players (the table, by default, displays only the top 10, but you can change that in the dropdown box), their weight, their actual 40 time, their expected 40 time, and the difference. Auburn tackle Greg Robinson hopes be a top-five pick, and his 40 time does a good job displaying his athleticism. Pittsburgh’s Aaron Donald comes in third, but there will be plenty of reasons to talk about him later.

RkFirst LastPosCollegeHeightWeight40YD40 Exp40 Diff
2Greg RobinsonOTAuburn773324.925.270.35
3Aaron DonaldDTPittsburgh732854.685.010.33
4A.C. LeonardTETennessee St.742524.54.830.33
5Taylor LewanOTMichigan793094.875.150.28
6Donte MoncriefWRMississippi742214.44.660.26
7Larry WebsterDEBloomsburg782524.584.830.25
9Seantrel HendersonOTMiami793315.045.270.23
10Jeff JanisWRSaginaw Valley St.752194.424.650.23
11Trai TurnerOGLSU753104.935.150.22
12Kareem MartinDENorth Carolina782724.724.940.22
13Eric EbronTENorth Carolina762504.64.820.22
14Damien WilliamsRBOklahoma712224.454.660.21
15Kevin Pierre-LouisOLBBoston College722324.514.720.21
16Logan ThomasQBVirginia Tech782484.614.810.2
17Chris SmithDEArkansas732664.714.910.2
18Caraun ReidDTPrinceton743024.915.110.2
19Anthony BarrOLBUCLA772554.664.850.19
20Mike EvansWRTexas A&M772314.534.710.18
21Justin GilbertCBOklahoma St.722024.374.550.18
22Martavis BryantWRClemson762114.424.60.18
23Jerick McKinnonRBGeorgia Southern692094.414.590.18
24Khalil MackOLBBuffalo752514.654.820.17
25Sammy WatkinsWRClemson732114.434.60.17
26Jackson JeffcoatDETexas752474.634.80.17
27James GayleDEVirginia Tech762594.74.870.17
29Will ClarkeDEWest Virginia782714.774.940.17
30Colt LyerlaTEOregon762424.614.770.16
31Tyler GaffneyRBStanford712204.494.650.16
32Jace AmaroTETexas Tech772654.744.90.16
33George AtkinsonRBNotre Dame732184.484.640.16
34Zachariah KerrNTDelaware733265.085.240.16
35Kelvin BenjaminWRFlorida St.772404.614.760.15
36Brandin CooksWROregon St.701894.334.480.15
37Brandon DixonCBNorthwest Missouri St.712034.414.560.15
38Jordan MatthewsWRVanderbilt752124.464.610.15
39Andre WilliamsRBBoston College712304.564.710.15
40Marcus SmithDELouisville752514.684.820.14
41C.J. FiedorowiczTEIowa772654.764.90.14
42Terrance WestRBTowson692254.544.680.14
43Charles SimsRBWest Virginia722144.484.620.14
45Matt PatchanOTBoston College783024.975.110.14
46Avery WilliamsonILBKentucky732464.664.80.14
47Howard JonesDEShepherd742354.64.740.14
48Dri ArcherRBKent St.681734.264.390.13
49Ra'Shede HagemanDTMinnesota783105.025.150.13
50Prince ShemboOLBNotre Dame732534.714.840.13
51Phillip GainesCBRice721934.384.50.12
52Albert WilsonWRGeorgia State692024.434.550.12
53Lorenzo TaliaferroRBCoastal Carolina722294.584.70.12
54Telvin SmithILBFlorida St.752184.524.640.12
55Brandon ColemanWRRutgers782254.564.680.12
57Bennie FowlerWRMichigan St.732174.524.640.12
58Devon KennardOLBUSC752494.74.810.11
59Deone BucannonSSWashington St.732114.494.60.11
61Tim CornettRBUNLV722094.484.590.11
62Terrence BrooksFSFlorida St.711984.424.530.11
63Khairi ForttILBCalifornia742484.74.810.11
64Lamin BarrowOLBLSU732374.644.750.11
65Scott CrichtonDEOregon St.752734.844.950.11
66Isaiah CrowellRBAlabama St.712244.574.670.1
67Shaq EvansWRUCLA732134.514.610.1
68Bishop SankeyRBWashington692094.494.590.1
69Jason VerrettCBTCU691894.384.480.1
70Odell BeckhamWRLSU711984.434.530.1
71Brandon ThomasOTClemson753175.095.190.1
72Jaylen WatkinsCBFlorida711944.414.510.1
73Ronald PowellOLBFlorida752374.654.750.1
74Xavier Su'a-FiloOGUCLA763075.045.130.09
75Keith McGillCBUtah752114.514.60.09
76Dontae JohnsonCBN.C. State742004.454.540.09
77Jabari PriceCBNorth Carolina702004.454.540.09
78Michael SchofieldOTMichigan783015.015.10.09
79Khyri ThorntonDTSouthern Miss753045.035.120.09
80John BrownWRPittsburg St. (KS)701794.344.430.09
81Zach MooreDEConcordia (MN)772694.844.920.08
82Tre MasonRBAuburn682074.54.580.08
83Henry JoseyRBMissouri681944.434.510.08
84Bruce EllingtonWRSouth Carolina691974.454.530.08
85Jonathan NewsomeDEBall St.752474.734.80.07
86Jake MatthewsOTTexas A&M773085.075.140.07
87Kyle Van NoyOLBBYU752434.714.780.07
88Jason BromleyDTSyracuse753065.065.130.07
89Brock VereenFSMinnesota721994.474.540.07
90Josh HuffWROregon712064.514.570.06
91Jeremy HillRBLSU732334.664.720.06
92Jordan TrippOLBMontana752344.674.730.06
94Trey BurtonTEFlorida742244.624.670.05
96L'Damian WashingtonWRMissouri761954.464.510.05
97Allen RobinsonWRPenn St.742204.64.650.05
98Kevin NorwoodWRAlabama741984.484.530.05
99Kelcy QuarlesDTSouth Carolina762975.035.080.05
101Carlos HydeRBOhio St.722304.664.710.05
102Kasim EdebaliDEBoston College742534.794.840.05
103Justin BrittOTMissouri783255.195.230.04
105Arthur LynchTEGeorgia772584.824.860.04
106Marcus LucasWRMissouri762184.64.640.04
107Alfred BlueRBLSU742234.634.670.04
108Mike CampanaroWRWake Forest691924.464.50.04
109Lache SeastrunkRBBaylor692014.514.550.04
110Max BulloughILBMichigan St.752494.784.810.03
112Matt HazelWRCoastal Carolina731984.54.530.03
113Timmy JerniganNTFlorida St.742995.065.090.03
114Marqueston HuffFSWyoming711964.494.520.03
115Kony EalyDEMissouri762734.924.950.03
116Darqueze DennardCBMichigan St.711994.514.540.03
117Zach FultonOGTennessee773165.165.180.02
118Demarcus LawrenceDEBoise St.752514.84.820.02
119Antone ExumCBVirginia Tech722134.594.610.02
120Anthony HitchensOLBIowa722404.744.760.02
121Christian JonesILBFlorida St.752404.744.760.02
122Jake MurphyTEUtah762494.794.810.02
123Robert HerronWRWyoming691934.484.50.02
124Boseko LokomboOLBOregon742254.664.680.02
125Cody HoffmanWRBYU762234.654.670.02
126Billy TurnerOTNorth Dakota St.773155.165.180.02
127Marcel JensenTEFresno St.782594.854.870.02
128George UkoDEUSC752844.995.010.02
129Justin EllisDTLouisiana Tech733345.275.280.01
130Jared AbbrederisWRWisconsin731954.54.510.01
131Ethan WestbrooksDEWest Texas A&M752674.94.910.01
132Pat O'DonnellPMiami762204.644.650.01
133Ed ReynoldsFSStanford732074.574.580.01
134Nevin LawsonCBUtah St.691904.484.490.01
135Ha Ha Clinton-DixFSAlabama732084.584.590.01
136Bennett JacksonCBNotre Dame721954.514.510
138Isaiah LewisSSMichigan St.702114.64.60
139Calvin PryorFSLouisville712074.584.580
140Kyle FullerCBVirginia Tech721904.494.490
141Antonio RichardsonOTTennessee783365.35.30
142T.J. JonesWRNotre Dame721884.484.480
143Devonta FreemanRBFlorida St.682064.584.57-0.01
144Ryan GroyOGWisconsin773165.195.18-0.01
145James WhiteRBWisconsin692044.574.56-0.01
146Reggie JordanTEMissouri Western752404.774.76-0.01
147Storm JohnsonRBCentral Florida722094.64.59-0.01
148Kendall JamesCBMaine701804.444.43-0.01
149Demetri GoodsonCBBaylor711944.524.51-0.01
150Gabe IkardCOklahoma763045.135.12-0.01
151Richard RodgersTECalifornia762574.874.86-0.01
152Craig LostonSSLSU712174.654.64-0.01
153J.C. CopelandFBLSU712714.954.94-0.01
154Tenny PalepoiDTUtah732985.15.08-0.02
157Stephen MorrisQBMiami742134.634.61-0.02
158Devin StreetWRPittsburgh751984.554.53-0.02
159Allen HurnsWRMiami731984.554.53-0.02
160Chris BorlandILBWisconsin712484.834.81-0.02
161Marqise LeeWRUSC721924.524.5-0.02
162Jordan ZumwaltILBUCLA762354.764.74-0.02
163Andre HalCBVanderbilt701884.54.48-0.02
164Tre BostonSSNorth Carolina722044.594.56-0.03
165Russell BodineCNorth Carolina753105.185.15-0.03
167Michael SamDEMissouri742614.914.88-0.03
168Wesley JohnsonOTVanderbilt772975.115.08-0.03
169James MorrisILBIowa732414.84.77-0.03
170Jeremy GallonWRMichigan671854.494.46-0.03
172Jonotthan HarrisonCFlorida753045.155.12-0.03
173Jonathan DowlingSSWestern Kentucky751904.524.49-0.03
174Anthony DenhamTEUtah762354.774.74-0.03
175Preston BrownILBLouisville732514.864.82-0.04
176James StoneCTennessee763065.175.13-0.04
177Trent MurphyOLBStanford772504.864.82-0.04
178David FluellenRBToledo712244.724.67-0.05
179Marcus HeitLSKansas St.752584.914.86-0.05
180Damian CopelandWRLouisville711844.54.45-0.05
181Jemea ThomasCBGeorgia Tech691924.554.5-0.05
182Cameron FlemingOTStanford773235.285.22-0.06
183Pierre DesirCBLindenwood731984.594.53-0.06
184Kerry HyderDTTexas Tech742905.15.04-0.06
185Cassius MarshDEUCLA762524.894.83-0.06
187Kerry WynnDTRichmond772664.974.91-0.06
188Ross CockrellCBDuke721914.564.49-0.07
189Derek CarrQBFresno St.742144.694.62-0.07
190Ryan HewittFBStanford762464.874.8-0.07
191Tevin MimsDESouth Florida762604.954.87-0.08
192Jordan NajvarTEBaylor782564.934.85-0.08
193Austin FranklinWRNew Mexico St.711894.564.48-0.08
195Connor ShawQBSouth Carolina722064.664.57-0.09
197Corey BrownWROhio St.711784.514.42-0.09
198Silas ReddRBUSC702124.74.61-0.09
199Jalen SaundersWROklahoma691654.444.35-0.09
200Bashaud BreelandCBClemson711974.624.53-0.09
201Lamarcus JoynerCBFlorida St.681844.554.45-0.1
202Johnny ManzielQBTexas A&M722074.684.58-0.1
203Anthony JohnsonDTLSU743085.245.14-0.1
204Daniel SorensenFSBYU732054.674.57-0.1
205De'Anthony ThomasRBOregon691744.54.4-0.1
206Cyril RichardsonOGBaylor773295.365.26-0.1
207Ryan GrantWRTulane721994.644.54-0.1
208Shamar StephenDTConnecticut773095.255.15-0.1
209Isaiah BurseWRFresno St.701884.584.48-0.1
211Matt FeilerOTBloomsburg783305.375.26-0.11
212Dion BaileySSUSC722014.664.55-0.11
213Bene BenwikereCBSan Jose St.711954.634.51-0.12
214Jon HalapioOGFlorida753235.345.22-0.12
215Travis SwansonCArkansas773125.285.16-0.12
216Marcus RobersonCBFlorida721914.614.49-0.12
218Ka'Deem CareyRBArizona692074.74.58-0.12
219Tevin ReeseWRBaylor701634.464.34-0.12
220Loucheiz PurifoyCBFlorida711904.614.49-0.12
221Jordan LynchQBNorthern Illinois722174.764.64-0.12
222IK EnemkpaliDELouisiana Tech732615.014.88-0.13
223Tyler StarrOLBSouth Dakota762504.954.82-0.13
224DaQuan JonesDTPenn St.763225.355.22-0.13
225Terrance MitchellCBOregon711924.634.5-0.13
226Jacob PedersenTEWisconsin752384.894.75-0.14
227Antonio AndrewsRBWestern Kentucky702254.824.68-0.14
228Ricardo AllenCBPurdue691874.614.47-0.14
229James WilderRBFlorida St.752324.864.72-0.14
230John UrschelOGPenn St.753135.315.17-0.14
231Walt PowellWRMurray St.711894.634.48-0.15
232Louis NixNTNotre Dame743315.425.27-0.15
233Chris BoydWRVanderbilt762064.734.57-0.16
234Victor HamptonCBSouth Carolina691974.694.53-0.16
235Lavelle WestbrooksCBGeorgia Southern711864.634.46-0.17
236Ryan CarrethersNTArkansas State733375.475.3-0.17
237Timothy FlandersRBSam Houston St.692074.754.58-0.17
238Bryn RennerQBNorth Carolina752284.874.7-0.17
239Tajh BoydQBClemson732224.844.66-0.18
240Morgan MosesOTVirginia783145.355.17-0.18
241Jeremiah GeorgeILBIowa St.712344.914.73-0.18
242Ja'Wuan JamesOTTennessee783115.345.16-0.18
243Jerome SmithRBSyracuse712204.844.65-0.19
244Brandon LinderOGMiami783115.355.16-0.19
245Jarvis LandryWRLSU712054.774.57-0.2
246Nat BerheSSSan Diego St.701934.714.5-0.21
248Blake BortlesQBCentral Florida772324.934.72-0.21
249Yawin SmallwoodOLBConnecticut742465.014.8-0.21
250Dustin VaughanQBWest Texas A&M772354.954.74-0.21
251Gabe JacksonOGMississippi St.753365.515.3-0.21
252Conor BoffeliOGIowa762985.35.08-0.22
253Jack MewhortOTOhio St.783095.375.15-0.22
254Will SuttonDTArizona State723035.365.11-0.25
255Dakota DozierOTFurman763135.425.17-0.25
256Matt ArmstrongCGrand Valley St.743025.365.11-0.25
257Cody MandellPAlabama742164.894.63-0.26
258Josh StewartWROklahoma St.701784.694.42-0.27
259Tom SavageQBPittsburgh762284.974.7-0.27
260Josh MauroDEStanford782715.214.94-0.27
261Jonathan BrownOLBIllinois722385.034.75-0.28
262Jimmy GaroppoloQBEastern Illinois742264.974.69-0.28
263AJ McCarronQBAlabama752204.944.65-0.29
264David YankeyOGStanford783155.485.18-0.3
265Keith WenningQBBall St.7521854.64-0.36
266Cyrus KouandjioOTAlabama793225.595.22-0.37
267David FalesQBSan Jose St.742124.994.61-0.38
268Jeff MathewsQBCornell762235.264.67-0.59

Bench Press

For the bench press, I used height and weight as my two inputs; both variables were extremely significant statistically, and this makes sense. Heavier players have an advantage in the bench press, while players with long arms (who are usually taller) are at a disadvantage. As a result, the best-fit formula (R^2 of 0.54) for the 213 men who bench pressed was:

[math]Expected BP = 30.0 – 0.560 * Height + .1275 * Weight[/math]

The best job on the bench was produced by North Carolina center Russell Bodine. At 310 pounds and 6’3, Bodine has a good bench-pressing frame… but that only meant that he was expected to rep 225 pounds 28 times. In reality, he produced a combine best 42 reps (no other player had more than 36), crowning him as the strongest man in Indianapolis… whether you adjust for height and weight, or not. Number 7 on the adjusted list? Aaron Donald. But we’ll get to him later.

RkFirst LastPosCollegeHeightWeightBenchBP ExpBP Diff
1Russell BodineCNorth Carolina753104227.614.4
2Jerick McKinnonRBGeorgia Southern692093218.113.9
3Max BulloughILBMichigan St.752493019.810.2
4Kerry WynnDTRichmond772663120.910.1
5Brock VereenFSMinnesota721992515.19.9
6Khairi ForttILBCalifornia742483020.29.8
7Aaron DonaldDTPittsburgh732853525.59.5
8Kevin Pierre-LouisOLBBoston College722322819.38.7
9Arthur LynchTEGeorgia772582819.88.2
10Bishop SankeyRBWashington692092618.17.9
12Jeremiah GeorgeILBIowa St.712342820.17.9
13Matt FeilerOTBloomsburg783303628.57.5
14Pat O'DonnellPMiami762202315.67.4
15Jace AmaroTETexas Tech772652820.77.3
16Jaylen WatkinsCBFlorida7119422157
17Antonio RichardsonOTTennessee783363629.26.8
18Brandon ThomasOTClemson753173528.56.5
19Ra'Shede HagemanDTMinnesota783103225.96.1
20Dri ArcherRBKent St.6817320146
21Brandon ColemanWRRutgers782252115.15.9
22Jordan MatthewsWRVanderbilt752122115.15.9
24James WhiteRBWisconsin692042317.45.6
26IK EnemkpaliDELouisiana Tech732612822.55.5
27James GayleDEVirginia Tech762592620.55.5
28Reggie JordanTEMissouri Western752402418.75.3
29Chris BorlandILBWisconsin712482721.95.1
31Chris SmithDEArkansas732662823.14.9
32Jake MurphyTEUtah762492419.34.7
33Marcus LucasWRMissouri762182015.34.7
34Eric EbronTENorth Carolina762502419.44.6
35Tyler StarrOLBSouth Dakota762502419.44.6
36Marcel JensenTEFresno St.782592419.44.6
37Prince ShemboOLBNotre Dame732532621.44.6
38Justin GilbertCBOklahoma St.722022015.54.5
39Avery WilliamsonILBKentucky732462520.54.5
40C.J. FiedorowiczTEIowa772652520.74.3
41Isaiah CrowellRBAlabama St.712242318.94.1
42Jordan TrippOLBMontana752342217.94.1
43Mike CampanaroWRWake Forest691922015.94.1
44Jeff JanisWRSaginaw Valley St.7521920164
45Brandon LinderOGMiami7831130264
46Tenny PalepoiDTUtah732983127.23.8
47Taylor LewanOTMichigan793092925.23.8
48Victor HamptonCBSouth Carolina691972016.53.5
49Henry JoseyRBMissouri681942016.73.3
50Devon KennardOLBUSC752492319.83.2
51Jemea ThomasCBGeorgia Tech691921915.93.1
52Khalil MackOLBBuffalo752512320.12.9
53Marcus SmithDELouisville752512320.12.9
54Deone BucannonSSWashington St.732111916.12.9
55Greg RobinsonOTAuburn773323229.32.7
56Ronald PowellOLBFlorida752372118.32.7
57Anthony HitchensOLBIowa722402320.32.7
59Lamin BarrowOLBLSU732372219.42.6
60Howard JonesDEShepherd742352118.62.4
61Tre BostonSSNorth Carolina722041815.82.2
62Jack MewhortOTOhio St.783092825.82.2
63Timothy FlandersRBSam Houston St.692072017.82.2
64John UrschelOGPenn St.7531330282
65George AtkinsonRBNotre Dame7321819172
66Robert HerronWRWyoming6919318162
68Kyle Van NoyOLBBYU7524321192
70Preston BrownILBLouisville732512321.21.8
71Zach MooreDEConcordia (MN)772692321.21.8
73Kelcy QuarlesDTSouth Carolina762972725.41.6
74Martavis BryantWRClemson762111614.41.6
75Jonathan NewsomeDEBall St.752472119.61.4
76Calvin PryorFSLouisville712071816.71.3
77Ka'Deem CareyRBArizona692071917.81.2
78Wesley JohnsonOTVanderbilt772972624.81.2
79Khyri ThorntonDTSouthern Miss753042826.81.2
80Isaiah BurseWRFresno St.701881614.81.2
81Scott CrichtonDEOregon St.752732422.91.1
82Jeremy HillRBLSU732332018.91.1
83Will ClarkeDEWest Virginia782712220.91.1
84Brandin CooksWROregon St.7018916151
85Lavelle WestbrooksCBGeorgia Southern7118615141
86Kareem MartinDENorth Carolina782722221.10.9
87Brandon DixonCBNorthwest Missouri St.712031716.20.8
88Matt HazelWRCoastal Carolina731981514.40.6
89Antonio AndrewsRBWestern Kentucky702252019.50.5
90James WilderRBFlorida St.752321817.60.4
91Nevin LawsonCBUtah St.691901615.60.4
92Timmy JerniganNTFlorida St.742992726.70.3
93Trent MurphyOLBStanford772501918.80.2
94Jonotthan HarrisonCFlorida753042726.80.2
95Andre HalCBVanderbilt701881514.80.2
97Silas ReddRBUSC702121817.90.1
98Antone ExumCBVirginia Tech722131716.90.1
99Josh MauroDEStanford782712120.90.1
100Charles SimsRBWest Virginia7221417170
101Demarcus LawrenceDEBoise St.752512020.1-0.1
102Carlos HydeRBOhio St.722301919.1-0.1
103Sammy WatkinsWRClemson732111616.1-0.1
104Ryan CarrethersNTArkansas State733373232.2-0.2
105Marqueston HuffFSWyoming711961515.3-0.3
106Kony EalyDEMissouri762732222.3-0.3
107Jabari PriceCBNorth Carolina702001616.4-0.4
108Storm JohnsonRBCentral Florida722091616.4-0.4
109Allen HurnsWRMiami731981414.4-0.4
110Nat BerheSSSan Diego St.701931515.5-0.5
111Ed ReynoldsFSStanford732071515.6-0.6
112Darqueze DennardCBMichigan St.711991515.7-0.7
113A.C. LeonardTETennessee St.742522020.8-0.8
114Gabe JacksonOGMississippi St.753363030.9-0.9
115Lorenzo TaliaferroRBCoastal Carolina722291818.9-0.9
116Jordan NajvarTEBaylor782561819-1
118Jason BromleyDTSyracuse753062627.1-1.1
119Jeremy GallonWRMichigan671851516.1-1.1
120Ryan GroyOGWisconsin773162627.2-1.2
121Shamar StephenDTConnecticut773092526.3-1.3
123Lamarcus JoynerCBFlorida St.681841415.4-1.4
124Larry WebsterDEBloomsburg782521718.5-1.5
125Bruce EllingtonWRSouth Carolina691971516.5-1.5
126Jackson JeffcoatDETexas752471819.6-1.6
127Bennett JacksonCBNotre Dame721951314.6-1.6
128Xavier Su'a-FiloOGUCLA763072526.6-1.6
129Damian CopelandWRLouisville711841213.8-1.8
130Chris BoydWRVanderbilt762061213.8-1.8
131J.C. CopelandFBLSU712712324.9-1.9
132Kasim EdebaliDEBoston College742531920.9-1.9
133James MorrisILBIowa732411819.9-1.9
134Kyle FullerCBVirginia Tech721901214-2
135Yawin SmallwoodOLBConnecticut742461820-2
136Lache SeastrunkRBBaylor692011517-2
137Billy TurnerOTNorth Dakota St.773152527.1-2.1
138Dontae JohnsonCBN.C. State742001214.1-2.1
139Cameron FlemingOTStanford773232628.1-2.1
141Jake MatthewsOTTexas A&M773082426.2-2.2
142Zach FultonOGTennessee773162527.2-2.2
143Ricardo AllenCBPurdue691871315.3-2.3
144Daniel SorensenFSBYU732051315.3-2.3
145Josh StewartWROklahoma St.701781113.6-2.6
146Josh HuffWROregon712061416.6-2.6
147Trai TurnerOGLSU753102527.6-2.6
148Damien WilliamsRBOklahoma712221618.6-2.6
149Zachariah KerrNTDelaware733262830.7-2.7
150Isaiah LewisSSMichigan St.702111517.8-2.8
153Matt PatchanOTBoston College783022224.9-2.9
154Cody HoffmanWRBYU762231315.9-2.9
155Ethan WestbrooksDEWest Texas A&M752671922.1-3.1
156Shaq EvansWRUCLA732131316.3-3.3
157Phillip GainesCBRice721931114.3-3.3
158Colt LyerlaTEOregon762421518.4-3.4
159Pierre DesirCBLindenwood731981114.4-3.4
160DaQuan JonesDTPenn St.763222528.6-3.6
161Tevin MimsDESouth Florida762601720.7-3.7
162Donte MoncriefWRMississippi742211316.8-3.8
163Cyril RichardsonOGBaylor773292528.9-3.9
165Demetri GoodsonCBBaylor711941115-4
166Ja'Wuan JamesOTTennessee783112226-4
167Alfred BlueRBLSU742231317.1-4.1
169Jonathan BrownOLBIllinois722381620.1-4.1
170Ross CockrellCBDuke721911014.1-4.1
171Terrance WestRBTowson692251620.1-4.1
173Gabe IkardCOklahoma763042226.3-4.3
174Richard RodgersTECalifornia762571620.3-4.3
175Jonathan DowlingSSWestern Kentucky75190812.3-4.3
176Jerome SmithRBSyracuse712201418.4-4.4
177L'Damian WashingtonWRMissouri76195812.4-4.4
178Will SuttonDTArizona State723032428.4-4.4
179Mike EvansWRTexas A&M772311216.4-4.4
180Walt PowellWRMurray St.711891014.4-4.4
181Dakota DozierOTFurman763132327.4-4.4
182Bashaud BreelandCBClemson711971115.4-4.4
183Jarvis LandryWRLSU712051216.4-4.4
184Anthony BarrOLBUCLA772551519.5-4.5
185Conor BoffeliOGIowa762982125.5-4.5
186James StoneCTennessee763062226.5-4.5
187Kelvin BenjaminWRFlorida St.772401317.5-4.5
188David YankeyOGStanford783152226.5-4.5
189Ha Ha Clinton-DixFSAlabama732081115.7-4.7
190Kendall JamesCBMaine70180913.8-4.8
191Justin BrittOTMissouri783252327.8-4.8
192Michael SamDEMissouri742611721.9-4.9
193Bene BenwikereCBSan Jose St.711951015.2-5.2
194Terrence BrooksFSFlorida St.711981015.5-5.5
195Kerry HyderDTTexas Tech742902025.6-5.6
196De'Anthony ThomasRBOregon69174813.6-5.6
197Cassius MarshDEUCLA762521419.6-5.6
198Kevin NorwoodWRAlabama74198813.9-5.9
199Cyrus KouandjioOTAlabama793222126.9-5.9
200Craig LostonSSLSU712171218-6
201Marcus RobersonCBFlorida72191814.1-6.1
202George UkoDEUSC752841824.3-6.3
203Travis SwansonCArkansas773122026.7-6.7
204Justin EllisDTLouisiana Tech733342531.8-6.8
206Ryan GrantWRTulane72199815.1-7.1
207Caraun ReidDTPrinceton743022027.1-7.1
208Albert WilsonWRGeorgia State692021017.2-7.2
209Austin FranklinWRNew Mexico St.71189714.4-7.4
210Anthony JohnsonDTLSU743082027.9-7.9
211Loucheiz PurifoyCBFlorida71190614.5-8.5
212Odell BeckhamWRLSU71198715.5-8.5
213Jared AbbrederisWRWisconsin73195414-10

Three Cone Drill
Like the bench press, the assumption (at least by me) is that the 3-cone drill is biased against taller players. But unlike the bench, it’s better to be lighter in this drill. As it turns out, both height and weight were statistically significant at all relevant levels, but being taller was correlated with better scores; that means the coefficient on the height variable was negative, so the best-fit formula to project 3-cone time (R^2 of 0.68) was:

[math]Expected 3-Cone = 6.98 – 0.023 * Height + 0.0081 * Weight[/math]

215 men who participated in the 3-Cone drill, with the best grade coming from a player with a seventh round grade; the second-best effort came from Michael Sam’s less-heralded defensive end teammate at Missouri, Kony Ealy, who should go in the first round. Number four on the list was Aaron Donald, who incredibly produced top-seven performances in each of our first three metrics. If there was a super freak at the combine, it was Donald.

RkFirst LastPosCollegeHeightWeight3Cone3C Exp3C Diff
1Tyler StarrOLBSouth Dakota762506.647.260.62
2Kony EalyDEMissouri762736.837.440.61
3Jordan LynchQBNorthern Illinois722176.557.080.53
4Aaron DonaldDTPittsburgh732857.117.610.5
5Daniel SorensenFSBYU732056.476.960.49
6Anthony BarrOLBUCLA772556.827.270.45
7Trent MurphyOLBStanford772506.787.230.45
8Kerry HyderDTTexas Tech742907.237.630.4
9Gabe IkardCOklahoma763047.37.690.39
10Jeff JanisWRSaginaw Valley St.752196.647.030.39
11Jake MatthewsOTTexas A&M773087.347.70.36
12Preston BrownILBLouisville732516.987.330.35
13Tyler GaffneyRBStanford712206.787.130.35
14Bishop SankeyRBWashington692096.757.090.34
15Terrance MitchellCBOregon711926.576.90.33
16James MorrisILBIowa732416.947.250.31
17Damian CopelandWRLouisville711846.536.840.31
19Bruce EllingtonWRSouth Carolina691976.696.990.3
20Lorenzo TaliaferroRBCoastal Carolina722296.887.180.3
21Jackson JeffcoatDETexas752476.977.260.29
22Ja'Wuan JamesOTTennessee783117.427.70.28
23Kevin Pierre-LouisOLBBoston College722326.927.20.28
24Ryan GroyOGWisconsin773167.497.770.28
25Scott CrichtonDEOregon St.752737.197.470.28
26Taylor LewanOTMichigan793097.397.660.27
27Phillip GainesCBRice721936.626.890.27
28David FluellenRBToledo712246.97.160.26
29Odell BeckhamWRLSU711986.696.950.26
30Jordan TrippOLBMontana752346.897.150.26
31Ryan GrantWRTulane721996.686.940.26
32Jerick McKinnonRBGeorgia Southern692096.837.090.26
33C.J. FiedorowiczTEIowa772657.17.360.26
34Johnny ManzielQBTexas A&M722076.7570.25
35John UrschelOGPenn St.753137.557.790.24
36Jason VerrettCBTCU691896.696.920.23
37James WilderRBFlorida St.752326.927.130.21
38Wesley JohnsonOTVanderbilt772977.47.610.21
39Khalil MackOLBBuffalo752517.087.290.21
40Conor BoffeliOGIowa762987.447.640.2
41Kevin NorwoodWRAlabama741986.686.880.2
43Justin EllisDTLouisiana Tech733347.8180.19
44Cassius MarshDEUCLA762527.087.270.19
45Kareem MartinDENorth Carolina782727.27.390.19
46Ryan HewittFBStanford762467.047.220.18
47Avery WilliamsonILBKentucky732467.117.290.18
49Mike CampanaroWRWake Forest691926.776.950.18
50Walt PowellWRMurray St.711896.76.880.18
51Chris BorlandILBWisconsin712487.187.360.18
52Cyril RichardsonOGBaylor773297.77.870.17
53Bennett JacksonCBNotre Dame721956.756.90.15
54Isaiah BurseWRFresno St.701886.746.890.15
55Cody HoffmanWRBYU762236.897.040.15
56Jordan ZumwaltILBUCLA762356.997.140.15
57Logan ThomasQBVirginia Tech782487.057.190.14
58Brandin CooksWROregon St.701896.766.90.14
59James GayleDEVirginia Tech762597.197.330.14
60Ryan CarrethersNTArkansas State733377.898.030.14
61Caraun ReidDTPrinceton743027.597.720.13
63Kasim EdebaliDEBoston College742537.27.330.13
64Will ClarkeDEWest Virginia782717.267.380.12
65Jordan NajvarTEBaylor782567.147.260.12
66Demetri GoodsonCBBaylor711946.86.920.12
67Anthony HitchensOLBIowa722407.157.270.12
68Xavier Su'a-FiloOGUCLA763077.67.720.12
69Ethan WestbrooksDEWest Texas A&M752677.37.420.12
70Robert HerronWRWyoming691936.846.960.12
71DaQuan JonesDTPenn St.763227.737.840.11
72Greg RobinsonOTAuburn773327.87.90.1
74Richard RodgersTECalifornia762577.237.310.08
75Jared AbbrederisWRWisconsin731956.86.880.08
76Dontae JohnsonCBN.C. State742006.826.90.08
78Jimmy GaroppoloQBEastern Illinois742267.047.110.07
79Jake MurphyTEUtah762497.187.250.07
80Tevin ReeseWRBaylor701636.636.690.06
81Sammy WatkinsWRClemson732116.957.010.06
82Allen RobinsonWRPenn St.7422077.060.06
83Prince ShemboOLBNotre Dame732537.297.350.06
84Cyrus KouandjioOTAlabama793227.717.770.06
85Max BulloughILBMichigan St.752497.227.270.05
86Deone BucannonSSWashington St.732116.967.010.05
87Donte MoncriefWRMississippi742217.027.070.05
88Pierre DesirCBLindenwood731986.866.910.05
89Tenny PalepoiDTUtah732987.677.710.04
90Justin GilbertCBOklahoma St.722026.926.960.04
91Brock VereenFSMinnesota721996.96.940.04
93Marcus RobersonCBFlorida721916.846.870.03
94Albert WilsonWRGeorgia State6920277.030.03
95Isaiah LewisSSMichigan St.702117.057.080.03
96T.J. JonesWRNotre Dame721886.826.850.03
97Jordan MatthewsWRVanderbilt752126.956.970.02
98Devon KennardOLBUSC752497.257.270.02
99Howard JonesDEShepherd742357.167.180.02
100Kendall JamesCBMaine701806.816.830.02
101Zachariah KerrNTDelaware733267.937.940.01
102Blake BortlesQBCentral Florida772327.087.090.01
103Tim CornettRBUNLV722097.017.020.01
104Travis SwansonCArkansas773127.737.730
105Kyle Van NoyOLBBYU752437.227.220
106Michael SchofieldOTMichigan783017.627.620
107Mike EvansWRTexas A&M772317.087.080
108Timothy FlandersRBSam Houston St.692077.077.070
109Antone ExumCBVirginia Tech722137.057.050
110Bennie FowlerWRMichigan St.732177.067.060
111George AtkinsonRBNotre Dame732187.077.070
112James WhiteRBWisconsin692047.057.050
113Ka'Deem CareyRBArizona692077.087.07-0.01
114Bene BenwikereCBSan Jose St.711956.946.93-0.01
115Dion BaileySSUSC722016.976.95-0.02
116Lamin BarrowOLBLSU732377.247.22-0.02
118Victor HamptonCBSouth Carolina691977.016.99-0.02
119Reggie JordanTEMissouri Western752407.227.2-0.02
120Zach MooreDEConcordia (MN)772697.417.39-0.02
121Devonta FreemanRBFlorida St.682067.117.08-0.03
122Devin StreetWRPittsburgh751986.896.86-0.03
123Kyle FullerCBVirginia Tech721906.96.86-0.04
124Dri ArcherRBKent St.681736.866.82-0.04
125Shaq EvansWRUCLA732137.077.03-0.04
126Craig LostonSSLSU712177.157.1-0.05
127Trey BurtonTEFlorida742247.147.09-0.05
128Antonio AndrewsRBWestern Kentucky702257.247.19-0.05
129Keith WenningQBBall St.752187.077.02-0.05
130Boseko LokomboOLBOregon742257.157.1-0.05
131Josh MauroDEStanford782717.437.38-0.05
132Jabari PriceCBNorth Carolina702007.046.99-0.05
133Jonathan NewsomeDEBall St.752477.317.26-0.05
134Andre WilliamsRBBoston College712307.277.21-0.06
136Larry WebsterDEBloomsburg782527.297.23-0.06
137Tre BostonSSNorth Carolina722047.046.98-0.06
138Jace AmaroTETexas Tech772657.427.36-0.06
139Alfred BlueRBLSU742237.157.08-0.07
140Marcus LucasWRMissouri762187.077-0.07
141David YankeyOGStanford783157.817.74-0.07
142Connor ShawQBSouth Carolina722067.076.99-0.08
143Arthur LynchTEGeorgia772587.387.3-0.08
144Henry JoseyRBMissouri681947.076.99-0.08
145John BrownWRPittsburg St. (KS)701796.916.82-0.09
146Chris SmithDEArkansas732667.557.46-0.09
147Marcel JensenTEFresno St.782597.387.28-0.1
148Bashaud BreelandCBClemson711977.046.94-0.1
149Jeff MathewsQBCornell762237.147.04-0.1
150Jack MewhortOTOhio St.783097.797.69-0.1
151Charles SimsRBWest Virginia722147.167.06-0.1
152Zach FultonOGTennessee773167.877.77-0.1
154Khyri ThorntonDTSouthern Miss753047.837.72-0.11
155Bryn RennerQBNorth Carolina752287.227.1-0.12
156Lavelle WestbrooksCBGeorgia Southern711866.986.85-0.13
158Dustin VaughanQBWest Texas A&M772357.257.11-0.14
159J.C. CopelandFBLSU712717.687.54-0.14
160A.J. McCarronQBAlabama752207.187.04-0.14
161Nat BerheSSSan Diego St.701937.086.93-0.15
162Will SuttonDTArizona State723037.937.78-0.15
163Brandon DixonCBNorthwest Missouri St.712037.156.99-0.16
164Anthony JohnsonDTLSU743087.937.77-0.16
165Billy TurnerOTNorth Dakota St.773157.927.76-0.16
166Demarcus LawrenceDEBoise St.752517.467.29-0.17
167Ha Ha Clinton-DixFSAlabama732087.166.99-0.17
168Ra'Shede HagemanDTMinnesota783107.877.7-0.17
169Matt HazelWRCoastal Carolina731987.086.91-0.17
170Kelvin BenjaminWRFlorida St.772407.337.15-0.18
172Nevin LawsonCBUtah St.691907.126.93-0.19
173Jason BromleyDTSyracuse753067.927.73-0.19
174Austin FranklinWRNew Mexico St.711897.076.88-0.19
175Marcus SmithDELouisville752517.487.29-0.19
176Morgan MosesOTVirginia783147.937.73-0.2
177Damien WilliamsRBOklahoma712227.377.15-0.22
178Tajh BoydQBClemson732227.337.1-0.23
179Martavis BryantWRClemson762117.186.94-0.24
180Jonathan DowlingSSWestern Kentucky751907.046.79-0.25
181Andre HalCBVanderbilt701887.146.89-0.25
182Tom SavageQBPittsburgh762287.337.08-0.25
183Jonotthan HarrisonCFlorida753047.977.72-0.25
184IK EnemkpaliDELouisiana Tech732617.677.41-0.26
187Matt FeilerOTBloomsburg783308.137.86-0.27
188Gabe JacksonOGMississippi St.753368.257.97-0.28
189Josh StewartWROklahoma St.701787.16.81-0.29
190Seantrel HendersonOTMiami793318.157.84-0.31
191Brandon ThomasOTClemson753178.137.82-0.31
192Brandon ColemanWRRutgers782257.337.01-0.32
193Justin BrittOTMissouri783258.147.82-0.32
194Allen HurnsWRMiami731987.236.91-0.32
195Marqueston HuffFSWyoming711967.266.94-0.32
196Keith McGillCBUtah752117.296.96-0.33
197Louis NixNTNotre Dame743318.297.96-0.33
199Lamarcus JoynerCBFlorida St.681847.266.91-0.35
200Stephen MorrisQBMiami742137.367-0.36
201Jacob PedersenTEWisconsin752387.557.18-0.37
202Corey BrownWROhio St.711787.166.79-0.37
203Dakota DozierOTFurman763138.147.77-0.37
204L'Damian WashingtonWRMissouri761957.196.81-0.38
205Jon HalapioOGFlorida753238.267.87-0.39
206Terrence BrooksFSFlorida St.711987.356.95-0.4
207Jerome SmithRBSyracuse712207.537.13-0.4
208Ross CockrellCBDuke721917.286.87-0.41
209Michael SamDEMissouri742617.87.39-0.41
210Cameron FlemingOTStanford773238.247.82-0.42
211James StoneCTennessee763068.167.71-0.45
212Russell BodineCNorth Carolina753108.267.76-0.5
214Jonathan BrownOLBIllinois722387.777.25-0.52
215David FalesQBSan Jose St.742127.557-0.55

Vertical Jump

Initially, I used both height and weight to predict vertical jump, but the height variable proved not to be significant. Therefore, the best-fit formula to predict the vertical jump was simply:

[math]Expected VJ = 48.34 – 0.0646 * Weight[/math]

Baylor’s Lache Seastrunk and Nebraska’s Stanley Jean-Baptiste tied for the best vertical jump at the combine of the 260 men who participated. Considering Jean-Baptiste weighed 17 more pounds than Seastrunk, the Nebraska product gets a higher grade in this category. But it was Buffalo’s Khalil Mack — another potential top-five pick — who produced the best weight-adjusted vertical, jumping 40 inches in the air despite weighing 251 pounds. Then again, that’s nothing compared to Mario Williams, who in 2006, jumped 40.5 inches at 295 pounds.

RkFirst LastPosCollegeHeightWeightVerticalVJ ExpVJ Diff
1Khalil MackOLBBuffalo752514032.17.9
2Howard JonesDEShepherd7423540.533.27.3
4Ra'Shede HagemanDTMinnesota7831035.528.37.2
6Prince ShemboOLBNotre Dame7325338.5326.5
8Colt LyerlaTEOregon762423932.76.3
9Lache SeastrunkRBBaylor6920141.535.46.1
10Chris SmithDEArkansas732663731.25.8
11Jerick McKinnonRBGeorgia Southern6920940.534.85.7
12Kevin Pierre-LouisOLBBoston College722323933.45.6
13Donte MoncriefWRMississippi7422139.534.15.4
14James GayleDEVirginia Tech762593731.65.4
16Jason BromleyDTSyracuse7530633.528.64.9
17Allen RobinsonWRPenn St.742203934.14.9
19Bene BenwikereCBSan Jose St.7119540.535.74.8
20Kareem MartinDENorth Carolina7827235.530.84.7
21Matt PatchanOTBoston College7830233.528.84.7
22Andre WilliamsRBBoston College712303833.54.5
23Larry WebsterDEBloomsburg7825236.532.14.4
24Martavis BryantWRClemson762113934.74.3
25Keith McGillCBUtah752113934.74.3
26Jordan TrippOLBMontana7523437.533.24.3
27Isaiah CrowellRBAlabama St.712243833.94.1
28Yawin SmallwoodOLBConnecticut7424636.532.54
29Bruce EllingtonWRSouth Carolina6919739.535.63.9
31George AtkinsonRBNotre Dame732183834.33.7
32Khairi ForttILBCalifornia742483632.33.7
33Jackson JeffcoatDETexas752473632.43.6
34Mike EvansWRTexas A&M772313733.43.6
35Damian CopelandWRLouisville711844036.53.5
36Tre MasonRBAuburn6820738.5353.5
37Marcel JensenTEFresno St.782593531.63.4
38Trent MurphyOLBStanford7725035.532.23.3
39Jeff JanisWRSaginaw Valley St.7521937.534.23.3
40Tevin ReeseWRBaylor701634137.83.2
41Logan ThomasQBVirginia Tech7824835.532.33.2
43Dontae JohnsonCBN.C. State7420038.535.43.1
44Mike CampanaroWRWake Forest691923935.93.1
45Charles SimsRBWest Virginia7221437.534.53
46Odell BeckhamWRLSU7119838.535.62.9
47Marcus SmithDELouisville752513532.12.9
48Jason VerrettCBTCU691893936.12.9
49Kerry WynnDTRichmond772663431.22.8
51Anthony BarrOLBUCLA7725534.531.92.6
52David FluellenRBToledo7122436.533.92.6
53Zach MooreDEConcordia (MN)7726933.5312.5
54IK EnemkpaliDELouisiana Tech732613431.52.5
55Kasim EdebaliDEBoston College7425334.5322.5
56Ronald PowellOLBFlorida7523735.5332.5
57Terrence BrooksFSFlorida St.711983835.62.4
58Kyle FullerCBVirginia Tech7219038.536.12.4
59Demarcus LawrenceDEBoise St.7525134.532.12.4
60Tyler GaffneyRBStanford7122036.534.12.4
61Gabe JacksonOGMississippi St.753362926.62.4
62Silas ReddRBUSC702123734.72.3
63Kendall JamesCBMaine701803936.72.3
64Bennett JacksonCBNotre Dame721953835.72.3
65Albert WilsonWRGeorgia State6920237.535.32.2
66Taylor LewanOTMichigan7930930.528.42.1
67Shamar StephenDTConnecticut7730930.528.42.1
68Aaron DonaldDTPittsburgh732853229.92.1
69Marqise LeeWRUSC721923835.92.1
70Jake MatthewsOTTexas A&M7730830.528.52
71Lamin BarrowOLBLSU7323735332
73A.C. LeonardTETennessee St.742523432.11.9
74Jerome SmithRBSyracuse712203634.11.9
75Deone BucannonSSWashington St.7321136.534.71.8
76Isaiah LewisSSMichigan St.7021136.534.71.8
77Jace AmaroTETexas Tech772653331.21.8
78Marcus LucasWRMissouri762183634.31.7
79James MorrisILBIowa7324134.532.81.7
80Bennie FowlerWRMichigan St.732173634.31.7
81James WilderRBFlorida St.752323533.41.6
82Jonathan NewsomeDEBall St.752473432.41.6
83Greg RobinsonOTAuburn7733228.526.91.6
86Damien WilliamsRBOklahoma7122235.5341.5
87Marcus RobersonCBFlorida7219137.5361.5
88Devin StreetWRPittsburgh751983735.61.4
89Tenny PalepoiDTUtah7329830.529.11.4
91Justin EllisDTLouisiana Tech733342826.81.2
92Zachariah KerrNTDelaware7332628.527.31.2
93Demetri GoodsonCBBaylor711943735.81.2
94Will ClarkeDEWest Virginia782713230.81.2
95Josh MauroDEStanford782713230.81.2
96Brandon ThomasOTClemson753172927.91.1
97Jemea ThomasCBGeorgia Tech691923735.91.1
98Lamarcus JoynerCBFlorida St.6818437.536.51
99Carlos HydeRBOhio St.7223034.533.51
101Matt HazelWRCoastal Carolina7319836.535.60.9
102John UrschelOGPenn St.753132928.10.9
103Preston BrownILBLouisville732513332.10.9
104Jordan MatthewsWRVanderbilt7521235.534.70.8
105Dri ArcherRBKent St.681733837.20.8
106Scott CrichtonDEOregon St.7527331.530.70.8
107Ja'Wuan JamesOTTennessee783112928.30.7
108Jake MurphyTEUtah762493332.30.7
109Jordan NajvarTEBaylor7825632.531.80.7
110Russell BodineCNorth Carolina753102928.30.7
111Christian JonesILBFlorida St.7524033.532.80.7
112Bishop SankeyRBWashington6920935.534.80.7
113Storm JohnsonRBCentral Florida7220935.534.80.7
114Phillip GainesCBRice7219336.535.90.6
115Ryan HewittFBStanford762463332.50.5
116David YankeyOGStanford7831528.5280.5
117Ross CockrellCBDuke7219136.5360.5
118Timmy JerniganNTFlorida St.7429929.5290.5
119Josh HuffWROregon7120635.5350.5
120Antone ExumCBVirginia Tech722133534.60.4
121Khyri ThorntonDTSouthern Miss753042928.70.3
122Kony EalyDEMissouri762733130.70.3
123C.J. FiedorowiczTEIowa7726531.531.20.3
124Justin GilbertCBOklahoma St.7220235.535.30.2
125Justin BrittOTMissouri7832527.527.40.1
126Ryan GrantWRTulane7219935.535.50
127Billy TurnerOTNorth Dakota St.7731528280
128Derek CarrQBFresno St.7421434.534.50
129DaQuan JonesDTPenn St.7632227.527.50
130Cyrus KouandjioOTAlabama7932227.527.50
131Cassius MarshDEUCLA762523232.1-0.1
132Shaq EvansWRUCLA7321334.534.6-0.1
133Kerry HyderDTTexas Tech7429029.529.6-0.1
134Brandin CooksWROregon St.701893636.1-0.1
135Austin FranklinWRNew Mexico St.711893636.1-0.1
136Kyle Van NoyOLBBYU7524332.532.6-0.1
137Wesley JohnsonOTVanderbilt772972929.2-0.2
138Jordan ZumwaltILBUCLA762353333.2-0.2
139Tre BostonSSNorth Carolina722043535.2-0.2
140Marqueston HuffFSWyoming7119635.535.7-0.2
141Tyler StarrOLBSouth Dakota762503232.2-0.2
142Eric EbronTENorth Carolina762503232.2-0.2
143Jeremiah GeorgeILBIowa St.712343333.2-0.2
144Richard RodgersTECalifornia7625731.531.7-0.2
146Will SuttonDTArizona State7230328.528.8-0.3
147John BrownWRPittsburg St. (KS)7017936.536.8-0.3
148Terrance WestRBTowson6922533.533.8-0.3
149Lavelle WestbrooksCBGeorgia Southern711863636.3-0.3
150Kelvin BenjaminWRFlorida St.7724032.532.8-0.3
151Tim CornettRBUNLV7220934.534.8-0.3
152Robert HerronWRWyoming6919335.535.9-0.4
153Nat BerheSSSan Diego St.7019335.535.9-0.4
154Calvin PryorFSLouisville7120734.535-0.5
155George UkoDEUSC7528429.530-0.5
156Matt FeilerOTBloomsburg7833026.527-0.5
157Lorenzo TaliaferroRBCoastal Carolina722293333.6-0.6
158Pierre DesirCBLindenwood731983535.6-0.6
159Loucheiz PurifoyCBFlorida7119035.536.1-0.6
160Ryan CarrethersNTArkansas State733372626.6-0.6
161Anthony DenhamTEUtah7623532.533.2-0.7
162Andre HalCBVanderbilt7018835.536.2-0.7
163Sammy WatkinsWRClemson732113434.7-0.7
164Ricardo AllenCBPurdue6918735.536.3-0.8
165Trai TurnerOGLSU7531027.528.3-0.8
166Blake BortlesQBCentral Florida7723232.533.4-0.9
167Connor ShawQBSouth Carolina722063435-1
168James StoneCTennessee7630627.528.6-1.1
169Bashaud BreelandCBClemson7119734.535.6-1.1
172Max BulloughILBMichigan St.752493132.3-1.3
173Brandon ColemanWRRutgers7822532.533.8-1.3
174Henry JoseyRBMissouri6819434.535.8-1.3
175Chris BorlandILBWisconsin712483132.3-1.3
176Anthony HitchensOLBIowa7224031.532.8-1.3
177Dion BaileySSUSC722013435.4-1.4
178Ryan GroyOGWisconsin7731626.527.9-1.4
179Louis NixNTNotre Dame7433125.527-1.5
180Brock VereenFSMinnesota721993435.5-1.5
181Cyril RichardsonOGBaylor7732925.527.1-1.6
182Jonotthan HarrisonCFlorida753042728.7-1.7
183Brandon LinderOGMiami7831126.528.3-1.8
184Craig LostonSSLSU7121732.534.3-1.8
185Josh StewartWROklahoma St.701783536.8-1.8
186Ha Ha Clinton-DixFSAlabama732083334.9-1.9
187Alfred BlueRBLSU742233233.9-1.9
188Terrance MitchellCBOregon711923435.9-1.9
189Avery WilliamsonILBKentucky7324630.532.5-2
190Jonathan BrownOLBIllinois722383133-2
191Ethan WestbrooksDEWest Texas A&M752672931.1-2.1
192Victor HamptonCBSouth Carolina6919733.535.6-2.1
193Antonio RichardsonOTTennessee7833624.526.6-2.1
194Arthur LynchTEGeorgia7725829.531.7-2.2
195Travis SwansonCArkansas773122628.2-2.2
197Devon KennardOLBUSC752493032.3-2.3
198Caraun ReidDTPrinceton7430226.528.8-2.3
199J.C. CopelandFBLSU7127128.530.8-2.3
200Jack MewhortOTOhio St.783092628.4-2.4
201Ka'Deem CareyRBArizona6920732.535-2.5
202Ed ReynoldsFSStanford7320732.535-2.5
203Kevin NorwoodWRAlabama741983335.6-2.6
204Jonathan DowlingSSWestern Kentucky7519033.536.1-2.6
207Marcus HeitLSKansas St.752582931.7-2.7
208Gabe IkardCOklahoma763042628.7-2.7
209Brandon DixonCBNorthwest Missouri St.7120332.535.2-2.7
210Telvin SmithILBFlorida St.7521831.534.3-2.8
211Reggie JordanTEMissouri Western752403032.8-2.8
212Seantrel HendersonOTMiami793312427-3
213Timothy FlandersRBSam Houston St.692073235-3
214Nevin LawsonCBUtah St.691903336.1-3.1
215Daniel SorensenFSBYU732053235.1-3.1
216James WhiteRBWisconsin692043235.2-3.2
217T.J. JonesWRNotre Dame721883336.2-3.2
218Jimmy GaroppoloQBEastern Illinois7422630.533.7-3.2
219Zach FultonOGTennessee7731624.527.9-3.4
220Johnny ManzielQBTexas A&M7220731.535-3.5
221Tajh BoydQBClemson7322230.534-3.5
222Xavier Su'a-FiloOGUCLA763072528.5-3.5
223Devonta FreemanRBFlorida St.6820631.535-3.5
225Pat O'DonnellPMiami7622030.534.1-3.6
226Jalen SaundersWROklahoma691653437.7-3.7
227L'Damian WashingtonWRMissouri761953235.7-3.7
228Corey BrownWROhio St.711783336.8-3.8
229Trey BurtonTEFlorida742243033.9-3.9
230Anthony JohnsonDTLSU7430824.528.5-4
231Cameron FlemingOTStanford7732323.527.5-4
232Tevin MimsDESouth Florida7626027.531.6-4.1
233Conor BoffeliOGIowa762982529.1-4.1
234Dakota DozierOTFurman763132428.1-4.1
235Dustin VaughanQBWest Texas A&M772352933.2-4.2
236Jeremy HillRBLSU732332933.3-4.3
237Antonio AndrewsRBWestern Kentucky7022529.533.8-4.3
238Jacob PedersenTEWisconsin7523828.533-4.5
239Allen HurnsWRMiami731983135.6-4.6
240Stephen MorrisQBMiami742133034.6-4.6
241Walt PowellWRMurray St.7118931.536.1-4.6
242Jordan LynchQBNorthern Illinois7221729.534.3-4.8
243Michael SchofieldOTMichigan783012428.9-4.9
244De'Anthony ThomasRBOregon691743237.1-5.1
245Isaiah BurseWRFresno St.701883136.2-5.2
246Jared AbbrederisWRWisconsin7319530.535.7-5.2
248Kelcy QuarlesDTSouth Carolina7629723.529.2-5.7
249Jon HalapioOGFlorida7532321.527.5-6
250Michael SamDEMissouri7426125.531.5-6
251A.J. McCarronQBAlabama752202834.1-6.1
252Keith WenningQBBall St.752182834.3-6.3
253Cody HoffmanWRBYU7622327.533.9-6.4
254Morgan MosesOTVirginia7831421.528.1-6.6
255Jarvis LandryWRLSU7120528.535.1-6.6
256Tom SavageQBPittsburgh762282733.6-6.6
257David FalesQBSan Jose St.742122834.7-6.7
258Cody MandellPAlabama742162734.4-7.4
259Bryn RennerQBNorth Carolina7522825.533.6-8.1
260Jeff MathewsQBCornell7622325.533.9-8.4

Finally, I came up with an overall grade using these four numbers. To do that, I converted each player’s grade relative to expectation in each category into a standard deviations above/below expectation. Then, I added those four values together to come up with a final grade (if a player did not participate in a drill, he is given a zero for that category, which doesn’t hurt or help him). Donald’s 40 times was 2.35 standard deviations above expectation, and he was 2.13 standard deviations above average in the bench press, 2.18 in the three-cone drill, and 0.64 in the vertical jump. Add those four numbers together, and Donald gets a grade of +7.3, the best in the combine.

RkNamePosCollegeHtWt40YDBP3CVJStd 40Std BPStd 3CStd VJTotal
1Aaron DonaldDTPittsburgh732854.68357.11322.352.132.180.647.3
2Jerick McKinnonRBGeorgia Southern692094.41326.8340.51.283.131.121.767.29
3Kevin Pierre-LouisOLBBoston College722324.51286.92391.471.951.241.766.42
4Khalil MackOLBBuffalo752514.65237.08401.230.660.912.455.25
5Jeff JanisWRSaginaw Valley St.752194.42206.6437.51.60.91.71.035.23
7James GayleDEVirginia Tech762594.7267.19371.191.230.611.684.71
8Taylor LewanOTMichigan793094.87297.3930.51.940.851.20.664.65
9Prince ShemboOLBNotre Dame732534.71267.2938.50.881.020.262.034.2
10Bishop SankeyRBWashington692094.49266.7535.50.721.781.470.24.17
11Khairi ForttILBCalifornia742484.7300360.762.1901.154.1
12Kareem MartinDENorth Carolina782724.72227.235.51.560.210.831.474.06
13Greg RobinsonOTAuburn773324.92327.828.52.490.610.420.54.02
14Chris SmithDEArkansas732664.71287.55371.391.1-0.421.823.9
15Howard JonesDEShepherd742354.6217.1640.50.960.540.092.293.88
16Jordan TrippOLBMontana752344.67226.8937.50.420.921.141.333.82
17Ra'Shede HagemanDTMinnesota783105.02327.8735.50.931.37-0.762.243.77
18Tyler GaffneyRBStanford712204.4906.7836.51.1501.530.743.41
20Jackson JeffcoatDETexas752474.63186.97361.21-0.351.251.133.24
21C.J. FiedorowiczTEIowa772654.76257.131.510.961.120.083.16
22Anthony BarrOLBUCLA772554.66156.8234.51.31-11.990.823.12
23Jace AmaroTETexas Tech772654.74287.42331.141.63-0.280.553.04
24Logan ThomasQBVirginia Tech782484.6107.0535.51.3900.630.993.02
25Isaiah CrowellRBAlabama St.712244.57230380.740.9301.292.95
26Mike CampanaroWRWake Forest691924.46206.77390.260.920.780.952.92
27Kony EalyDEMissouri762734.92226.83310.19-0.072.680.092.89
28Donte MoncriefWRMississippi742214.4137.0239.51.82-0.850.211.692.87
30Trent MurphyOLBStanford772504.86196.7835.5-0.290.041.981.032.77
31A.C. LeonardTETennessee St.742524.5200342.32-0.1700.62.76
32Tyler StarrOLBSouth Dakota762504.95246.6432-0.921.042.7-0.062.75
33George AtkinsonRBNotre Dame732184.48197.07381.140.45-0.011.172.74
34Jordan MatthewsWRVanderbilt752124.46216.9535.51.041.330.10.262.74
35Kerry WynnDTRichmond772664.9731034-0.442.2800.882.72
36Bruce EllingtonWRSouth Carolina691974.45156.6939.50.53-0.351.311.212.7
37Jason VerrettCBTCU691894.3806.69390.7101.030.892.63
38Justin GilbertCBOklahoma St.722024.37206.9235.51.291.010.180.062.54
39Larry WebsterDEBloomsburg782524.58177.2936.51.76-0.34-0.271.382.53
40Eric EbronTENorth Carolina762504.6240321.541.040-0.062.52
41Scott CrichtonDEOregon St.752734.84247.1931.50.750.251.210.252.45
43Brock VereenFSMinnesota721994.47256.9340.472.220.16-0.462.38
44Colt LyerlaTEOregon762424.61150391.16-0.7501.962.37
45Max BulloughILBMichigan St.752494.78307.22310.232.290.23-0.392.36
46Dri ArcherRBKent St.681734.26206.86380.931.34-0.180.262.35
47Will ClarkeDEWest Virginia782714.77227.26321.160.240.530.362.29
48Jaylen WatkinsCBFlorida711944.4122000.691.56002.26
49Deone BucannonSSWashington St.732114.49196.9636.50.790.650.220.562.23
51Jake MatthewsOTTexas A&M773085.07247.3430.50.5-0.51.590.642.22
52Andre WilliamsRBBoston College712304.5607.27381.040-0.261.412.19
53Avery WilliamsonILBKentucky732464.66257.1130.50.9610.8-0.612.16
54Allen RobinsonWRPenn St.742204.607390.3700.261.522.15
58Ronald PowellOLBFlorida752374.6521035.50.680.6100.772.06
60Preston BrownILBLouisville732514.86236.9833-0.250.411.550.271.97
61Martavis BryantWRClemson762114.42167.18391.290.36-1.041.341.94
62Brandin CooksWROregon St.701894.33166.76361.060.230.62-0.041.87
63Lamin BarrowOLBLSU732374.64227.24350.750.58-0.080.611.86
65Marcel JensenTEFresno St.782594.85247.38350.131.03-0.421.061.8
66Lorenzo TaliaferroRBCoastal Carolina722294.58186.88330.86-0.211.31-0.171.79
67Matt PatchanOTBoston College783024.9722033.50.97-0.6501.451.77
68Jake MurphyTEUtah762494.79247.18330.161.070.30.231.76
69Marcus SmithDELouisville752514.68237.48351.020.66-0.840.891.73
70Damian CopelandWRLouisville711844.5126.5340-0.33-0.41.351.11.73
71Lache SeastrunkRBBaylor692014.5115041.50.26-0.4601.911.72
72Zach MooreDEConcordia (MN)772694.84237.4133.50.590.39-0.10.791.68
73Tre MasonRBAuburn682074.50038.50.57001.11.67
74David FluellenRBToledo712244.7206.936.5-0.3201.140.821.64
75Marcus LucasWRMissouri762184.6207.07360.291.06-0.310.541.58
76Phillip GainesCBRice721934.38116.6236.50.87-0.751.170.191.48
77Dontae JohnsonCBN.C. State742004.45126.8238.50.65-0.480.340.961.47
78Charles SimsRBWest Virginia722144.48177.1637.50.98-0.01-0.450.931.46
79Mike EvansWRTexas A&M772314.53127.08371.29-0.9901.121.42
81Tenny PalepoiDTUtah732985.1317.6730.5-0.110.860.190.441.38
82Chris BorlandILBWisconsin712484.83277.1831-0.161.140.77-0.411.34
83Bennie FowlerWRMichigan St.732174.5207.06360.82000.521.33
85James MorrisILBIowa732414.8186.9434.5-0.22-0.431.370.541.26
86Sammy WatkinsWRClemson732114.43166.95341.22-0.020.26-0.221.24
87Kasim EdebaliDEBoston College742534.79197.234.50.32-0.420.560.781.23
88Brandon ThomasOTClemson753175.09358.13290.711.46-1.350.351.17
89Arthur LynchTEGeorgia772584.82287.3829.50.31.83-0.36-0.681.1
90Jonathan NewsomeDEBall St.752474.73217.31340.510.32-0.240.51.1
91Russell BodineCNorth Carolina753105.18428.2629-0.23.24-2.170.211.08
92Bennett JacksonCBNotre Dame721954.51136.75380.03-0.360.670.71.04
93Robert HerronWRWyoming691934.48186.8435.50.160.440.51-0.121
94Jason BromleyDTSyracuse753065.06267.9233.50.49-0.24-0.821.530.96
95Wesley JohnsonOTVanderbilt772975.11267.429-0.220.270.93-0.050.94
96Zachariah KerrNTDelaware733265.08287.9328.51.13-0.620.040.380.93
97Devon KennardOLBUSC752494.7237.25300.80.720.1-0.70.9
98Kyle Van NoyOLBBYU752434.71217.2232.50.490.440.01-0.050.9
99Anthony HitchensOLBIowa722404.74237.1531.50.170.60.52-0.420.86
100Odell BeckhamWRLSU711984.4376.6938.50.71-1.921.140.920.85
101Antonio RichardsonOTTennessee783365.336024.5-0.031.520-0.670.82
102John UrschelOGPenn St.753135.31307.5529-10.461.040.270.77
103Trai TurnerOGLSU753104.9325027.51.56-0.580-0.260.72
104Tim CornettRBUNLV722094.4807.0134.50.7900.03-0.110.71
105Jemea ThomasCBGeorgia Tech691924.5519037-0.370.700.330.66
106Carlos HydeRBOhio St.722304.6619034.50.34-0.0100.320.64
107Pat O'DonnellPMiami762204.6423030.50.091.670-1.130.63
108Keith McGillCBUtah752114.5107.29390.650-1.421.340.57
109James WilderRBFlorida St.752324.86186.9235-0.990.080.940.510.54
110Henry JoseyRBMissouri681944.43207.0734.50.550.74-0.36-0.410.52
111Marqise LeeWRUSC721924.520038-0.16000.640.48
112Khyri ThorntonDTSouthern Miss753045.03287.83290.620.26-0.50.090.48
113Ryan HewittFBStanford762464.8707.0433-0.5200.810.170.46
114Ryan GroyOGWisconsin773165.19267.4926.5-0.04-0.281.21-0.450.45
115Jeremiah GeorgeILBIowa St.712344.9128033-1.271.770-0.070.43
116Timmy JerniganNTFlorida St.742995.0627029.50.210.0600.150.42
117Jordan ZumwaltILBUCLA762354.7606.9933-0.1700.64-0.050.41
118Damien WilliamsRBOklahoma712224.45167.3735.51.51-0.59-0.980.470.4
119Tevin ReeseWRBaylor701634.4606.6341-0.8700.270.990.39
120Christian JonesILBFlorida St.752404.740033.50.17000.210.37
121Brandon ColemanWRRutgers782254.56217.3332.50.851.33-1.4-0.410.37
122Jabari PriceCBNorth Carolina702004.45167.0400.65-0.08-0.2200.35
123Antone ExumCBVirginia Tech722134.59177.05350.170.0200.130.32
124James WhiteRBWisconsin692044.57237.0532-0.041.25-0.02-0.990.2
125Devin StreetWRPittsburgh751984.5506.8937-0.140-0.130.450.18
126Reggie JordanTEMissouri Western752404.77247.2230-0.051.2-0.09-0.890.17
127Calvin PryorFSLouisville712074.5818034.500.290-0.150.15
128Demarcus LawrenceDEBoise St.752514.8207.4634.50.17-0.01-0.750.740.14
129Kyle FullerCBVirginia Tech721904.49126.938.5-0.03-0.44-0.160.760.13
130John BrownWRPittsburg St. (KS)701794.3406.9136.50.60-0.39-0.090.12
131Silas ReddRBUSC702124.718037-0.650.0200.730.11
132Isaiah LewisSSMichigan St.702114.6157.0536.50.02-0.620.130.560.08
133Albert WilsonWRGeorgia State692024.4310737.50.87-1.610.130.690.07
134Storm JohnsonRBCentral Florida722094.616035.5-0.06-0.0900.20.06
135Darqueze DennardCBMichigan St.711994.5115000.18-0.15000.03
136Josh HuffWROregon712064.5114035.50.46-0.5800.140.03
137Kerry HyderDTTexas Tech742905.1207.2329.5-0.42-1.261.73-0.040.02
138Telvin SmithILBFlorida St.752184.520031.50.8600-0.86-0.01
139IK EnemkpaliDELouisiana Tech732615.01287.6734-0.921.24-1.120.78-0.01
140Tre BostonSSNorth Carolina722044.59187.0435-0.180.51-0.28-0.05-0.01
141Terrance WestRBTowson692254.5416033.50.99-0.920-0.1-0.03
142Jordan NajvarTEBaylor782564.93187.1432.5-0.55-0.230.520.22-0.04
143Daniel SorensenFSBYU732054.67136.4732-0.71-0.522.15-0.97-0.05
144Jordan LynchQBNorthern Illinois722174.7606.5529.5-0.8702.33-1.51-0.05
146Boseko LokomboOLBOregon742254.6607.1500.140-0.220-0.07
147Terrance MitchellCBOregon711924.6306.5734-0.9301.46-0.61-0.08
148Demetri GoodsonCBBaylor711944.52116.837-0.08-0.910.520.37-0.1
149Matt HazelWRCoastal Carolina731984.5157.0836.50.220.13-0.760.29-0.12
150Gabe IkardCOklahoma763045.13227.326-0.08-0.961.72-0.84-0.17
151Justin EllisDTLouisiana Tech733345.27257.81280.1-1.520.850.38-0.18
152Shaq EvansWRUCLA732134.51137.0734.50.73-0.75-0.19-0.03-0.23
153Xavier Su'a-FiloOGUCLA763075.04257.6250.67-0.370.51-1.1-0.28
154Brandon DixonCBNorthwest Missouri St.712034.41177.1532.51.050.18-0.69-0.85-0.31
155Kendall JamesCBMaine701804.4496.8139-0.06-1.080.080.71-0.35
156Caraun ReidDTPrinceton743024.91207.5926.51.39-1.60.58-0.73-0.36
157Shamar StephenDTConnecticut773095.2525030.5-0.73-0.300.66-0.38
158Matt FeilerOTBloomsburg783305.37368.1326.5-0.761.69-1.19-0.17-0.42
159Anthony DenhamTEUtah762354.770032.5-0.2400-0.21-0.45
160Jeremy GallonWRMichigan671854.491500-0.22-0.2500-0.47
161Derek CarrQBFresno St.742144.690034.5-0.500-0.01-0.5
162Bene BenwikereCBSan Jose St.711954.63106.9440.5-0.82-1.16-0.061.48-0.55
163Jeremy HillRBLSU732334.66200290.460.250-1.34-0.63
164Seantrel HendersonOTMiami793315.0408.15241.610-1.34-0.92-0.66
165Johnny ManzielQBTexas A&M722074.6806.7531.5-0.701.1-1.08-0.69
166Yawin SmallwoodOLBConnecticut742465.0118036.5-1.5-0.4501.26-0.69
167Ja'Wuan JamesOTTennessee783115.34227.4229-1.29-0.911.240.23-0.72
168Ethan WestbrooksDEWest Texas A&M752674.9197.3290.09-0.70.51-0.65-0.75
169Richard RodgersTECalifornia762574.87167.2331.5-0.09-0.960.36-0.08-0.76
170Ryan CarrethersNTArkansas State733375.47327.8926-1.19-0.030.61-0.18-0.8
171Kelvin BenjaminWRFlorida St.772404.61137.3332.51.08-1.02-0.77-0.11-0.82
173Ed ReynoldsFSStanford732074.5715032.50.07-0.130-0.77-0.83
175Cassius MarshDEUCLA762524.89147.0832-0.42-1.270.84-0.02-0.87
176Michael SchofieldOTMichigan783015.0107.62240.6500.01-1.53-0.87
177Kevin NorwoodWRAlabama741984.4886.68330.36-1.320.89-0.8-0.87
178T.J. JonesWRNotre Dame721884.4806.8233-0.0300.12-1-0.91
180Brandon LinderOGMiami783115.3530026.5-1.360.890-0.55-1.02
181Trey BurtonTEFlorida742244.6207.14300.390-0.21-1.21-1.03
182Billy TurnerOTNorth Dakota St.773155.16257.92280.14-0.47-0.70-1.04
183Kelcy QuarlesDTSouth Carolina762975.0327023.50.350.370-1.77-1.05
184Victor HamptonCBSouth Carolina691974.69207.0133.5-1.160.78-0.09-0.66-1.14
185Pierre DesirCBLindenwood731984.59116.8635-0.42-0.770.2-0.17-1.16
186Marcus HeitLSKansas St.752584.910029-0.3300-0.84-1.17
188Ryan GrantWRTulane721994.6486.6835.5-0.73-1.61.120-1.2
189Devonta FreemanRBFlorida St.682064.5807.1131.5-0.040-0.11-1.1-1.25
190Connor ShawQBSouth Carolina722064.6607.0734-0.60-0.34-0.32-1.26
191DaQuan JonesDTPenn St.763225.35257.7327.5-0.93-0.80.48-0.01-1.27
192Dion BaileySSUSC722014.6606.9734-0.790-0.08-0.42-1.29
193Marqueston HuffFSWyoming711964.49157.2635.50.21-0.07-1.42-0.06-1.33
194Cyril RichardsonOGBaylor773295.36257.725.5-0.73-0.870.75-0.5-1.35
195Ka'Deem CareyRBArizona692074.7197.0832.5-0.840.27-0.04-0.77-1.39
196Isaiah BurseWRFresno St.701884.58166.7431-0.740.260.67-1.62-1.43
197Andre HalCBVanderbilt701884.5157.1435.5-0.170.04-1.08-0.22-1.43
198George UkoDEUSC752844.9918029.50.12-1.410-0.16-1.44
199Terrence BrooksFSFlorida St.711984.42107.35380.78-1.25-1.740.76-1.45
200Chris BoydWRVanderbilt762064.731200-1.09-0.400-1.49
201Alfred BlueRBLSU742234.63137.15320.28-0.91-0.29-0.6-1.53
202Marcus RobersonCBFlorida721914.6186.8437.5-0.83-1.370.140.47-1.6
203Lavelle WestbrooksCBGeorgia Southern711864.63156.9836-1.170.22-0.55-0.1-1.6
204Timothy FlandersRBSam Houston St.692074.75207.0732-1.190.490-0.93-1.63
205Nevin LawsonCBUtah St.691904.48167.12330.040.08-0.82-0.96-1.65
206Blake BortlesQBCentral Florida772324.9307.0832.5-1.4900.04-0.27-1.72
207Ricardo AllenCBPurdue691874.6113035.5-0.99-0.510-0.24-1.74
208Josh MauroDEStanford782715.21217.4332-1.940.01-0.220.36-1.78
209Matt ArmstrongCGrand Valley St.743025.36000-1.78000-1.78
210Jalen SaundersWROklahoma691654.440034-0.6500-1.15-1.8
211Jonotthan HarrisonCFlorida753045.15277.9727-0.220.04-1.11-0.53-1.83
212Zach FultonOGTennessee773165.16257.8724.50.17-0.5-0.45-1.07-1.85
213J.C. CopelandFBLSU712714.95237.6828.5-0.1-0.42-0.61-0.73-1.86
214Cody HoffmanWRBYU762234.65136.8927.50.14-0.660.65-2.01-1.88
216Justin BrittOTMissouri783255.19238.1427.50.31-1.08-1.410.05-2.14
217Gabe JacksonOGMississippi St.753365.51308.2529-1.51-0.2-1.20.73-2.18
218Craig LostonSSLSU712174.65127.1532.5-0.1-1.34-0.2-0.57-2.21
219Lamarcus JoynerCBFlorida St.681844.55147.2637.5-0.68-0.32-1.540.32-2.22
220Jack MewhortOTOhio St.783095.37287.7926-1.580.5-0.45-0.74-2.27
221Nat BerheSSSan Diego St.701934.71157.0835.5-1.46-0.11-0.64-0.12-2.32
222Ha Ha Clinton-DixFSAlabama732084.58117.16330.04-1.06-0.76-0.6-2.37
223Bashaud BreelandCBClemson711974.62117.0434.5-0.67-0.99-0.42-0.35-2.43
224Antonio AndrewsRBWestern Kentucky702254.82207.2429.5-0.980.1-0.21-1.34-2.43
226Tevin MimsDESouth Florida762604.9517027.5-0.53-0.820-1.26-2.62
228Walt PowellWRMurray St.711894.63106.731.5-1.05-0.990.78-1.45-2.7
229Jimmy GaroppoloQBEastern Illinois742264.9707.0430.5-200.3-1.01-2.71
230Conor BoffeliOGIowa762985.3217.4425-1.52-1.010.9-1.28-2.91
231Loucheiz PurifoyCBFlorida711904.616035.5-0.87-1.910-0.18-2.96
232Louis NixNTNotre Dame743315.4208.2925.5-1.070-1.45-0.46-2.98
233Travis SwansonCArkansas773125.28207.7326-0.83-1.510.02-0.68-3
234Ross CockrellCBDuke721914.56107.2836.5-0.48-0.92-1.780.15-3.03
235Allen HurnsWRMiami731984.55147.2331-0.14-0.1-1.42-1.42-3.07
236Jonathan DowlingSSWestern Kentucky751904.5287.0433.5-0.24-0.96-1.07-0.8-3.07
237Austin FranklinWRNew Mexico St.711894.5677.0736-0.56-1.66-0.84-0.04-3.1
238Stephen MorrisQBMiami742134.6307.3630-0.110-1.56-1.43-3.1
239David YankeyOGStanford783155.48227.8128.5-2.12-1.02-0.320.16-3.31
240Tajh BoydQBClemson732224.8407.3330.5-1.240-1.01-1.09-3.34
241Dustin VaughanQBWest Texas A&M772354.9507.2529-1.510-0.6-1.3-3.41
242L'Damian WashingtonWRMissouri761954.4687.19320.38-0.98-1.65-1.17-3.42
243Jared AbbrederisWRWisconsin731954.546.830.50.1-2.260.36-1.64-3.44
244Corey BrownWROhio St.711784.5107.1633-0.640-1.62-1.2-3.45
245Jerome SmithRBSyracuse712204.84147.5336-1.32-0.98-1.750.58-3.47
246Will SuttonDTArizona State723035.36247.9328.5-1.74-0.98-0.67-0.09-3.48
248De'Anthony ThomasRBOregon691744.58032-0.72-1.260-1.59-3.57
249James StoneCTennessee763065.17228.1627.5-0.29-1.02-1.97-0.34-3.61
250Cyrus KouandjioOTAlabama793225.59217.7127.5-2.62-1.320.26-0.01-3.7
252Cameron FlemingOTStanford773235.28268.2423.5-0.4-0.48-1.82-1.24-3.94
253Jacob PedersenTEWisconsin752384.8907.5528.5-0.970-1.61-1.39-3.97
254Cody MandellPAlabama742164.890027-1.8300-2.3-4.13
255Morgan MosesOTVirginia783145.3507.9321.5-1.240-0.88-2.05-4.17
256Bryn RennerQBNorth Carolina752284.8707.2225.5-1.220-0.52-2.53-4.27
257Josh StewartWROklahoma St.701784.69117.135-1.9-0.57-1.26-0.58-4.31
258Jon HalapioOGFlorida753235.3408.2621.5-0.820-1.71-1.87-4.39
259Anthony JohnsonDTLSU743085.24207.9324.5-0.7-1.77-0.69-1.23-4.4
260Jarvis LandryWRLSU712054.7712028.5-1.41-10-2.06-4.47
261A.J. McCarronQBAlabama752204.9407.1828-2.030-0.62-1.91-4.56
262Keith WenningQBBall St.75218507.0728-2.530-0.21-1.95-4.69
263Michael SamDEMissouri742614.91177.825.5-0.21-1.1-1.79-1.87-4.96
264Tom SavageQBPittsburgh762284.9707.3327-1.920-1.1-2.06-5.08
265Dakota DozierOTFurman763135.42238.1424-1.78-0.99-1.64-1.29-5.69
266Jonathan BrownOLBIllinois722385.03167.7731-1.96-0.92-2.27-0.61-5.76
267David FalesQBSan Jose St.742124.9907.5528-2.690-2.42-2.07-7.19
268Jeff MathewsQBCornell762235.2607.1425.5-4.160-0.44-2.63-7.24

Number two on the list is Georgia Southern’s Jerick McKinnon, which jives with a similar study by the Wall Street Journal. McKinnon was a quarterback in a triple-option offense in college, and he’s most famous for leading his team in rushing in the Eagles’ upset win over Florida. He will have to adjust to a new position and a massive upgrade in level of competition, but he has all the athleticism he’ll need to be a pro running back. Jeff Janis is a player Doug Farrar profiled before the combine, and then Janis tore up Indianapolis. All of his metrics were impressive, but the three-cone number (particularly intriguing for a 6’3 wide receiver) really stands out; expect to hear how sneaky fast Janis is this fall. The table is fully sortable, and you can sort by the last column to find that the least athletic player was a quarterback from Cornell; presumably, that wouldn’t have won you much money in Vegas.

But the clear star of the combine was Donald, who is anything but a workout warrior. Playing for an anonymous Pitt team, Donald put up Ndamukong Suh type numbers in 2013. He’s a player with few flaws on film (he led the country in tackles for loss with 28.5) and a dominant combine should cement his status as a high draft pick in May. In equally unsurprising news, Mack and Clowney both finished with top-six overall grades, while Virginia Tech quarterback Logan Thomas was the clear most athletic quarterback in Indianapolis.

The silent story in Indianapolis was the horrific performance by Michael Sam. He finished with the sixth-lowest grade of all 268 players, only besting three quarterbacks, an FCS offensive lineman, and a linebacker on one of the worst defenses in the Big Ten. Sam’s story is a polarizing one even though it shouldn’t be — your author is rooting for him — but the combine is the ultimate objective test, and Sam clearly failed this one. Everyone knows that the combine bears only tangential reality to playing football, but a miserable showing in Indianapolis won’t do anything to dissuade fears that Sam doesn’t have the physical ability to be a starting defensive end or outside linebacker in the pros. In addition, Oregon running back/wide receiver De’Anthony Thomas — nicknamed Black Mamba and considered one of the most athletic players in the country just two years ago — had a horrific combine, too. A 4.5 40 can be overlooked on some level since we all know how fast Thomas is, but a 32 inch vertical leap from a player weighing 174 pounds is ugly, and should put an end to the Percy Harvin comparisons (4.39 40, 37.5″ vertical at 192 pounds).

• Greg

I tried entering your bench press formula for the top guy but got -8.0475. Did you type the correct formula?

• Chase Stuart

There was an extra zero in the weight variable; it’s fixed now (you multiply weight by 0.1275, not 0.01275). I’m glad you caught it, which means people are actually using the formulas I’m presenting!

• Matt

Did you try a positional dummy factor? Would the weights change, and still be significant, for different positions? I can try it myself tomorrow, just wondering if you looked at it

• Matt

So I looked at this myself, using dummy variabls for QB/RB/WR/OL/DE/DT/LB/DB I got the following equation:

40time = 3.68 + 0.0045*Weight – 0.068*RB – 0.075*WR + 0.17*QB + 0.047*DT + 0.113*OL – 0.0395*DB – 0.0359*LB -0.051*DE

with an R^2 of .79. Weight, QB, and OL are highly significant, and RB and WR are kind of (p ~ .1). The coefficients seem to make sense, all the “speed” positions should be expected to run slower times (negative coefficients) while only QBs/DT/OL have positive coefficients. Here are the new top 10 with this formula:

First Last predict 40-YD
1 Greg Robinson 5.30 4.92
2 Logan Thomas 4.98 4.61
3 Aaron Donald 5.02 4.68
4 Taylor Lewan 5.19 4.87
5 A.C. Leonard 4.82 4.50
7 Trai Turner 5.20 4.93
8 Seantrel Henderson 5.29 5.04
9 Eric Ebron 4.81 4.60
10 Donte Moncrief 4.61 4.40

This kind of seems to give too much weight to the big guys, but interesting none the less.

• Chase Stuart

I did not do that, so I appreciate you doing the leg work for me!

Those are interesting results. I’m inclined to agree with you that too much weight is given to the big guys.

• Sunrise089

“Like the bench press, the assumption is that the 3-cone drill is biased against taller players.”

I know you just said assumption here, but does the actual formula suggest taller players are faster? I might be missing something due to my mobile browser though.

• Chase Stuart

Yeah, I included the formulas (do they not show up in the mobile browser?) and height was statistically significant (I didn’t include a detailed discussion of that, tho).

• Chase Stuart

You know, I didn’t even look at the formula that closely, but the variable on the height coefficient was negative!. So that means taller players have lower scores. I’m a bit surprised by that, but it was significant at the p = 0.01 level. Maybe taller players can complete the test in one fewer stride?

• Nate

Taller players don’t have to move their center of mass as far:
Players are leaning back in the direction they go next when they touch the line, each inch of height gives a fraction of an inch there.
What’s probably more important is that player can lean inside the cones as they run ‘around’ them – effectively cutting corners.

• Mark

great read! do you have this analysis for previous combines? will you use pro day results to fill in the combine blanks?

• Chase Stuart

Thanks, Mark. I’m not in the business of data collecting or data generating, but if the numbers exist in an easy-to-crunch format, I am happy to use them. I do plan on doing this for previous combines.

• Michael

I did this same analysis with Vernon Davis combine numbers.

Stats:
6′ 3″, 254 lbs
4.38 40 (+0.46 over expected)
33 BP (+12.6)
7.00 3 cone (+.3124)
42″ VJ (+10.1)

His standard deviations were 3.2, 2.8, 1.4, 3.1 for a total of +10.4 Standard deviations over expected. That destroys the #1 guy on this list (+7.3 standard deviations). If Davis was in this combine and placed on this list, he would have finished 1st in 40, 3rd in Bench press, 16th in 3 cone, and 1st in vertical (by over 2 inches!!). I don’t think anyone ever had a crazier combine performance than that.

• Jason P

Chase, this is beautifull. I can’t stop looking at it. If I was a GM, what I would want to know when looking at these numbers is how does this translate to success? A long term study that uses the last 10 years of these metrics and builds on this using a regression analysis to gain some predictability on future success. Does a high score translate to greater succe? Other factors (FCS school or not is one example), would need to be considered. The study could be position specific. So for example, is a high score a greater predictor of success for a DE than a QB? There may be too many variables at play here, but it would be very interesting and might add another tool to GM’s and scouts decision making process.

• Jeff

Maybe it’s just an issue with my computer, but I can’t see any of the tables. All that shows up is ” [table id=961 /] “

• Chase Stuart

Not you, Jeff. I have an issue with Host Gator and/or my table plugin; I’ve spent more time than I wish I had on this problem all weekend, but it is not fixed yet. I am hopeful it will be fixed soon.

• Jeff

Okay, thanks for the response. Good luck! I can’t wait explore the tables more.

• Chase Stuart

Tables are back up!

• Truitt

For me, the only issue I take is with the Bench Press. Doesn’t the real difficulty lie in length of arms and not how tall someone is? Shouldn’t they have recorded arm length data at the combine?

• Vincent

I did a similar analysis using data back to 1999, and the list of ‘best combine athletes’ actually vibed pretty close to my expectations with some players. Vernon Davis was #1, with Mario Williams a close #2, and J.J. Watt at #3. 12-15 were Justin Houston, Margus Hunt, Dontari Poe, DeMarcus Ware.

• J

Great analysis… I would be interested in seeing the differentials as percentages of the expected values rather than absolute numbers, since this would give a better normalization of the data. For instance, if I expect that a person can do 20 reps on the bench and he does 21 ( 5% higher than expected ), I’m giving him the same credit as a guy who I expect can do 1 and he does 2 ( 100% higher than expected )… After all, if a person can do 20, getting 1 more in is significant, but not nearly as significant as the additional 1 would be to the guy who can do 2, right?