Analyzing the last ten years of trading away future first round picks

April 23, 2014 Draft

When a general manager trades away a future first round pick, it’s worth wondering if the transaction was the effect of the principal-agent problem. A general manager is supposed to act in the best interest of the franchise, but he may instead choose to act in his own self-interest. If he’s on the hot seat, […]

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Will the Jaguars draft a first round quarterback?

April 21, 2014 Current Events

A couple of years ago, I wrote that when a team misses on a first round quarterback, someone tends to gets fired (update here). I identified 22 quarterbacks drafted in the first round between 1998 and 2010 who did not turn into stars: in nearly every case, the offensive coordinator and/or head coach was fired. […]

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Which College Conferences Dominate the NFL Draft?

April 18, 2014 College

On Sunday, I used my draft value chart to determine how NFL teams valued various positions. Today, I’ll use the same method to see which schools and conferences dominate the NFL Draft. You are not going to be surprised to discover that USC Trojans have dominated the draft over the last ten years. You’ll be […]

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Analyzing Position Values in the NFL

April 13, 2014 Draft

Every draft pick has a value, as seen in my draft value chart.  When the first overall pick is used on a quarterback, that means the quarterback position gets credited with 34.6 picks. If you assign a value to every pick in each of the last ten drafts, you can get a sense of the […]

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The Best 40-Yard Dash Times since 1999

March 26, 2014 Draft

A month ago, I looked Jadeveon Clowney’s impressive time in the 40-yard dash. In that post, I argued that all 40-yard times must be adjusted for weight. Well, thanks to the good folks at NFLSavant.com, 40-yard dash times are available for many players going back to 1999. Which made me wonder: which players have posted […]

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College Quarterback Passing Stats From 2013

March 18, 2014 College

Sometimes, it’s hard to believe that it’s 2014. With draft season now in full gear, I wanted to take a few minutes and look at the stats of the top college quarterbacks from last year. Unfortunately, that’s easier said than done. I couldn’t find a site that presented a full list of all college quarterback […]

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Pittsburgh’s Aaron Donald Was Your Combine MVP

February 28, 2014 College

Building on yesterday’s post, I decided to crown a combine MVP because it’s February and there’s nothing else to do. I looked at each player’s combine results, courtesy of the great NFLSavant.com, in four different tests. 40-yard dash There were 268 players with 40-yard dash times posted at NFL Savant. I ran a regression using […]

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Thoughts on Jadeveon Clowney’s 40-yard dash time

February 27, 2014 Draft

Jadeveon Clowney ran the 40-yard dash in 4.53 seconds, which only confirmed that the South Carolina star is an incredible athlete. But how freakishly insane is that time? The 40-yard dash, like every other aspect of the combine, is only useful when placed in proper context. The dash is biased in favor of lighter players; […]

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Which NFL teams draft from which colleges? Part II

June 4, 2013 Draft

Last week, I posted this article analyzing NFL team/college pairings in the NFL Draft. In that study, I included every draft pick since 1936, as the goal was to get a flavor of NFL history. However, I thought it would be fun to do the same thing but to look at more recent time periods. […]

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Which NFL teams draft from which colleges?

May 28, 2013 Draft

[Click here for Part II, which focuses on more recent drafts.] Gregg Rosenthal on NFL.com noted that both the Patriots and Buccaneers have eight former Rutgers players on each of their rosters. With former Rutgers head coach Greg Schiano coaching in Tampa Bay, seeing Scarlet Knights pop up in Florida isn’t too surprising. With Belichick, […]

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What Should Be Expected From Geno Smith’s Career?

May 24, 2013 Draft

As Jason Lisk has pointed out, quarterbacks drafted first overall tend to be much more successful than other quarterbacks, even those drafted just a few picks later. If a quarterback is an elite prospect — think John Elway or Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck (the Colts got three of those for one Jeff George) — […]

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Examining Previous Eddie Lacy/Johnathan Franklin pairs

May 17, 2013 Draft

Green Bay didn’t use a first round pick on a running back, but the Packers did spend a second round pick on Alabama’s Eddie Lacy and a fourth round pick on UCLA’s Johnathan Franklin.  How much weight should we put on draft status when one team drafts two running backs just a couple of rounds […]

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The Best Undrafted Players To Enter the NFL Since 2002

May 3, 2013 Draft

Now that the NFL Draft is behind us, I thought I’d take a look at the best undrafted rookies to enter the NFL since 2002. At some positions (quarterback, tight end, pass rusher), picking the best players is very easy; at others (running back, wide receiver, safety) you’ll notice that there have been quite a […]

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Football Perspective’s Thoughts on the Jets Draft

April 30, 2013 Draft

Yesterday, I discussed some of my general reactions to the NFL Draft. Today, my thoughts on the Jets draft in particular. Round 1, Pick 9: CB Dee Milliner (Alabama) Some mocks had Milliner, the consensus best cornerback in the draft, going as high as third overall.  The Jets had a need at cornerback following the […]

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My Thoughts on the 2013 Draft

April 29, 2013 Draft

Over the last three days, I analyzed the trades from the first round, rounds 2 and 3, and the final four rounds. Today, I wanted to discuss the things that stood out to me during the draft. In the comments, let me know what got your attention. What was that blur? Chances are it came […]

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Analyzing the Trades in Rounds 4 through 7 of the 2013 Draft

April 28, 2013 Draft

On Friday, I examined the trades from Round 1 of the 2013 NFL Draft; yesterday, I looked at the trades from rounds two and three. Let’s take a look at what happened on Saturday: 1) Jacksonville traded #98 to Philadelphia for the 101st and 210th picks With Kansas City reportedly interested in drafting USC quarterback […]

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Analyzing the Trades in Rounds 2 and 3 of the 2013 Draft

April 27, 2013 Draft

Yesterday, I examined the trades from Round 1 of the 2013 NFL Draft. Let’s take a look at what happened on Friday: 1) San Francisco traded #34 to Tennessee for the 40th and 216th picks plus a 2014 3rd rounder The Titans traded up to draft Justin Hunter, the wide receiver from the University of […]

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Analyzing the Trades in Day 1 of the 2013 Draft

April 26, 2013 Draft

There were five trades in the first round of the NFL Draft.  Who were the winners and losers?  Which draft chart was used — the traditional Jimmy Johnson chart or something closer to my chart?  I’ve never argued that teams use my chart when making trades (rather, I’ve argued simply that they should), but it’s […]

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Eric Fisher Would Become First #1 Pick from a MAC School

April 25, 2013 Draft

A recap of every #1 pick in NFL and AFL Draft History, along with their conference affiliations: Tweet

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Football Perspective Mock Draft

April 25, 2013 Draft

Before we get to my mock draft, here’s a recap of some of my previous articles on the NFL draft: The numbers behind Football Perspective’s Draft Value Chart Is the draft an efficient market? It appears so, as teams appropriately value age when drafting quarterbacks, teams aren’t biased in favor or against small school prospects, […]

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Are Big School Prospects Overrated in the NFL Draft?

April 24, 2013 Draft

We already know what the average draft pick is worth, thanks to the Football Perspective Draft Value Chart. If we assign the draft value associated with each pick to the college of that player, then we can determine which school had the most draft value in any given year. As it turns out, the best […]

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Which positions are the safest to draft in the first round?

April 23, 2013 Draft

Are some positions safer than others in the draft? Conventional wisdom tells us that quarterbacks are risky, while offensive linemen are safe. But is that true? Jason Lisk wrote a great article on bust rates three years ago at the old PFR Blog, and I’ve decided to update that article based on more recent data. […]

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Are certain teams better at drafting than others?

April 22, 2013 Draft

On the surface, this seems like an obvious question. Yes, certain teams are good at drafting and certain teams are bad at drafting. It’s easy to think of the Matt Millen Lions or the Raiders at the end of the Al Davis era as terrible drafting teams. With the benefit of hindsight, they were terrible […]

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What did the media say about Tom Brady in 2000?

April 21, 2013 Draft

[In case you missed it, earlier this week, I created an NFL Draft Pick Value Calculator and provided wallet-sized and iPhone-style copies of the 2013 NFL Schedule.] I find old newspaper articles very entertaining, so I decided to see how the Boston Globe documented the selection of Tom Brady in the sixth round of the […]

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Thoughts on Discount Rates When Trading NFL Draft Picks

April 20, 2013 Draft

I’ve received a couple of questions asking about what the discount rate should be when trading future draft picks. For example, two years ago, Atlanta traded the 27th, 59th, and 124th picks in the 2011 draft, along with their first and fourth round picks in the 2012 draft, to the Browns to acquire the 6th […]

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Will Geno Smith fall in the draft?

April 19, 2013 Draft

I have no inside information and I’m not a draftnik, but that won’t stop me from trying to read the tea leaves. I’m of the opinion that Geno Smith will fall to the late first round of the draft next week. I’m not a huge Smith fan — a passer-friendly system boosted his admittedly impressive […]

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Introducing the NFL Draft Pick Value Calculator

April 18, 2013 Draft

I first created a draft value chart five years ago. While the famous Jimmy Johnson chart was designed to facilitate trades, my chart was designed to measure the actual expected value from each draft pick. I fine-tuned my chart last November, and the graph below shows how much marginal Approximate Value you can expect from […]

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Do NFL teams properly value age when drafting quarterbacks?

April 16, 2013 Draft

For the most part, age is rarely discussed when talking about college quarterbacks. Outside of the Brandon Weedens and Chris Weinkes of the world, you generally don’t hear much from the draft community about the age of a prospect. But we do know that age matters, and that all other things being equal, being younger […]

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Yet another draft value chart

April 4, 2013 Draft

Last November, I provided an updated version of my own draft value chart where I measured the value provided by each draft pick to his Approximate Value over the course of his first five years. A week later I decided another change was needed. While AV measures the value provided by a player, the marginal […]

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Comparing Geno Smith to other Leach-Holgorsen quarterbacks

April 3, 2013 College

What does it mean that Geno Smith comes from a long line of Mike Leach/Dana Holgorsen star quarterbacks? I don’t know. At a minimum, it means he’s part of a very interesting and distinguished set of college quarterbacks. Because few players have dominated college football over the last 15 years like quarterbacks under Mike Leach […]

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