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Analyzing the Trades in Rounds 4 through 7 of the 2013 Draft

by Chase Stuart on April 28, 2013

in Draft

On Friday, I examined the trades from Round 1 of the 2013 NFL Draft; yesterday, I looked at the trades from rounds two and three. Let’s take a look at what happened on Saturday:

Chip Kelly saw enough out of Barkley to trade for him.

Chip Kelly saw enough out of Barkley to trade for him.

1) Jacksonville traded #98 to Philadelphia for the 101st and 210th picks

With Kansas City reportedly interested in drafting USC quarterback Matt Barkley, Philadelphia jumped the Chiefs to give Chip Kelly another quarterback.  The Jaguars then selected Ace Sanders, the South Carolina slot receiver that they presumably wanted at 98, anyway.  If nothing else, he can do this.

Jacksonville team received 107 cents on the dollar according to the Football Perspective chart and 96 cents on the dollar according to the Jimmy Johnson chart.

Winner: Win-Win.  Kelly now has Michael Vick, Nick Foles, and Matt Barkley: we’ll see who emerges from that competition.  Meanwhile, I really like the idea of having Justin Blackmon and Cecil Shorts on the outside and Sanders in the slot.  If Maurice Jones-Drew is healthy, Blaine Gabbert will be out of excuses in 2013. Jacksonville also added Denard Robinson — who looks to be playing running back in the NFL — later in the draft, giving them one of the more interesting drafts of the weekend.

Chart Used: Combination of the two charts. As you’ll soon see, teams didn’t strictly adhere to the Jimmy Johnson chart often in the later rounds.

2) Oakland traded pick #100 to Tampa Bay for the 112th and 181st picks

The Buccaneers traded up to draft Akeem Spence, Illinois defensive tackle. We don’t know who Oakland was targeted at 100, but they drafted Arkansas quarterback Tyler Wilson at 112.

Oakland received 115 cents on the dollar according to the Football Perspective chart and 89 cents on the dollar according to the Jimmy Johnson chart.  I never noticed this before, but the Jimmy Johnson chart values the 100th pick at 100 points.  So there’s that.

Winner: Oakland. The Raiders were big winners according to my chart, and still were able to get themselves a potential starting quarterback. Spence should help Tampa Bay, but the chart says they paid a premium to get him.

Chart Used: Combination of the two.

3) Arizona traded the 110th selection to the Giants for picks 116 and 187

The Giants traded up for Syracuse quarterback Ryan Nassib.  New York lost on the value chart, but that’s not the proper way to analyze this trade.  Tyler Wilson went at pick 112 and Landry Jones at pick 115, so we know the Raiders and Steelers were targeting a quarterback. The Giants should be commending for accurately reading the market to grab Nassib; they only sacrificed a sixth round pick to move up to get the 5th (as opposed to the 7th) quarterback off the board. A couple of days ago, Nassib was potentially going to be the first quarterback off the board, before Geno Smith and E.J. Manuel, so the Giants got value here with a nice developmental quarterback in the fourth.

Arizona received 119 cents on the dollar according to the Football Perspective chart and 106 cents on the dollar according to the Jimmy Johnson chart.

Winner: Win-Win. The Cardinals got great value from the Giants, and used the sixth round pick from the Giants to select Clemson running back Andre Ellington. But New York jumped the line to get one of the better value picks of the day, and now have a capable backup to Eli Manning.

Chart Used: This trade pretty closely lined up with the traditional chart, and the Cardinals even extracted extra value from New York. New Cardinals GM Steve Keim had an outstanding draft, and this was just one example.

4) Cleveland traded pick 111 to Pittsburgh for the Steelers 2014 3rd round pick

If we assume that the Steelers pick at 79 in the third around again next year, then Pittsburgh gave up a pretty penny for the right immediately.  The 79th pick is worth 6.8 points, while pick 111 is equal to 4.6 points.  That means the Steelers accepted 68 cents on the dollar for the right to pick now, implying an exorbitant interest rate on a one-year loan.   I like the player Pittsburgh traded up to draft — Syracuse strong safety Shamarko Thomas — but the reality is, Pittsburgh could have found a good player in the third round next year, too.

Winner: Cleveland — they got 148 cents on the dollar for their pick, and waiting a year to cash in that prize won’t discount that value too significantly. It doesn’t justify giving it up, but Pittsburgh will likely get a 3rd round compensatory pick for Mike Wallace.

5) Denver traded pick 125 to Green Bay for 146 and 173

After drafting Eddie Lacy, who slipped to the end of round 2 on Friday, Ted Thompson pulled off an even more impressive feat when he traded up to select UCLA running back Johnathan Franklin. Many had Franklin and Lacy as the top two running backs in the draft, and the Packers addressed a big need with some excellent talent.

Denver received 121 cents on the dollar according to the Football Perspective chart and 117 cents on the dollar according to the Jimmy Johnson chart.

Winner: Win-Win.  Franklin could have been a second round pick, so trading up was worth it.  According to my chart, picks 146 and 173 are equal to the 109th pick in the draft, and most projected Franklin to go much earlier than that.  After years of ignoring the position, Green Bay added two excellent prospects back at bargain bin prices.

I won’t criticize Denver since they received good value by trading down; the Broncos then selected Quanterus Smith, an undervalued pass rusher who led the Sun Belt in sacks last year, with the 146th pick. On the other hand, it’s disappointing to see the Broncos take Montee Ball with the 58th pick and pass on Franklin later on in the draft.

Chart Used: No matter which chart you used, the Broncos extracted a roughly 20% premium on this pick.

6) Detroit traded pick 137 to Seattle for picks 165 and 199

The Seahawks traded up for Jesse Williams, a defensive tackle from Alabama who had a second round grade but slipped due to medical concerns.  This is another example of a smart move — Williams was the best player available on some boards for 30 or 40 picks, and Seattle finally jumped up to grab him.  Williams will provide depth behind Red Bryant, and is the exact type of move a Super Bowl contender should make.

The Lions received 91 cents on the dollar according to the Football Perspective chart and 99 cents on the dollar according to the Jimmy Johnson chart.

Winner: Seattle, by a country mile.  Now only did they manage to win on both charts, but they potentially added one of the steals of the draft. The Seahawks had few holes to fill, so trading up would have been an advisable strategy anytime they could receive equal value. With the 165th pick, the Lions drafted a punter. So I’ll say this: Congrats, Detroit, not taking a punter at 137.

Chart Used: This trade matched up nearly perfectly with the JJ chart.

7) Cleveland traded #139 to Indianapolis for a 2014 fourth round pick

This year, the Colts’ fourth-round pick was #121 overall, which seems like a reasonable assumption for where the Colts will pick next year, too.  The 121st pick is worth 4.1 points and pick 139 is expected to produce 3.2 points; therefore, the Colts received 78 cents on the dollar for the right to pick right now, and to select Montori Hughes, defensive tackle out of Tennessee-Martin.  Finding athletic 330 pound players is close to impossible, but Chuck Pagano has a history of success with defensive lineman.  The Colts restocked at defensive tackle this off-season by signing former 49ers Ricky Jean-Francois and Aubrayo Franklin (most recently with San Diego), and Hughes should be a good rotational player for them.

Winner: Cleveland. If Indianapolis found something they liked in Hughes, it was probably worth it to get the player in right away.  Unlike the Steelers, they didn’t give up a day two pick. But it’s hard not to think the Browns got the better end of this deal, as they continue to accumulate value in 2014. They received 128 cents on the dollar for their pick (assuming pick 121); this wasn’t as good a deal as the Steelers trade, but every bit helps.

8) Chicago traded pick 153 to Atlanta to Atlanta for picks 163 and 236

The Bears dropped 10 spots and only picked up a 7th round pick, a move that impressed neither calculator.  The Falcons moved up to draft TCU defensive end Stansly Maponga. He’s apparently step three in the Falcons place to replace John Abraham, after signing Osi Umenyiora and drafting Clemson defensive end Malliciah Goodman. Thomas Dimitroff’s strategy is certainly cheaper then resigning Abraham, and should leave Atlanta in good shape in both the short- and long-term.

The Bears received 87 cents on the dollar according to the Football Perspective chart and 91 cents on the dollar according to the Jimmy Johnson chart. Of course, this late in the game, 87 cents on the dollar is equivalent to losing just 0.35 points of marginal expected AV.

Winner: Atlanta, as they gave up little to move up 10 spots for the player they wanted.  Both charts thought the Bears didn’t get much back. One footnote worth reading: With that throwaway seventh round pick from Atlanta, Chicago drafted Washington State wide receiver Marquess Wilson, a potential steal. Wilson feuded with new head coach Mike Leach in 2012 and eventually left the team, but he caught 82 passes for 1,388 yards and 12 scores as a sophomore in 2011.

Chart Used: Neither chart — the Bears apparently saw nobody they liked at 153 and took whatever they could get to move down.

9) Houston traded the 160th pick to St. Louis for the 184th and 198th picks

In order to keep up in the NFC West arms race, the Rams packaged two sixth-round picks to draft Vanderbilt running back Zac Stacy.

The Texans received 100 cents on the dollar according to the Football Perspective chart and 109 cents on the dollar according to the Jimmy Johnson chart.

Winner: St. Louis.  I didn’t love the team’s running back situation in the post-Steven Jackson era (Isaiah Pead, Daryl Richardson, Terrance Ganaway), and I think Stacy could end up leading the team in rushing this year.  The Rams didn’t even lose value in “moving up” to select Stacy, making them the winner. It wasn’t so bad for the Texans, either. After trading down to 184, Houston jumped back up to 176; assuming Quessenberry (see below) was the target all along, the Texans simply ended up moving from 233 to 198.

Chart Used: Football Perspective!

10) Oakland traded pick 176 to Houston in exchange for the 184th and 233rd picks

The Texans traded up for offensive tackle David QuessenberryGary Kubiak and the Texans know a thing or two about offensive lineman, and Quessenberry was another one of those players who was a lot higher on some boards.  Even putting aside the player, pick 233 holds almost no value, so the Texans are winners on both charts.

Oakland received 85 cents on the dollar according to the Football Perspective chart and 92 cents on the dollar according to the Jimmy Johnson chart.

Winner: Houston.  For a throwaway pick, the Texans jumped up 8 spots to get a tackle they probably had a third round grade on.

Chart Used: No chart involved: I think the Raiders simply were looking to trade down, and were willing to take Houston’s last pick to do so.

11) The Bucs traded LeGarrette Blount to the Patriots for Jeff Demps and the 229th pick.

I’ve got nothing to say about this trade, except apparently Tampa Bay needed that pick to…

12) The Vikings traded the 189th pick to the Bucs for picks 196 and 229

Tampa Bay traded up for Miami running back Mike James, while the Vikings waited to select UCLA guard Jeff Baca at 196.

Minnesota received 88 cents on the dollar according to the Football Perspective chart and 93 cents on the dollar according to the Jimmy Johnson chart.

Winner: Tampa Bay gets the backup running back for Doug Martin and didn’t have to pay much for him. James was not a highly-regarded prospect and some would argue there were better running backs left on the board, but the Bucs get the benefit of the doubt after taking Martin last year. Of course, it’s not like the Vikings really lost much here, either.

Chart Used: This late in the draft, I think the chart goes out the window, and teams simply give up their last pick to move up a few slots.

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