Yesterday, I examined the trades from Round 1 of the 2013 NFL Draft. Let’s take a look at what happened on Friday:
1) San Francisco traded #34 to Tennessee for the 40th and 216th picks plus a 2014 3rd rounder
The Titans traded up to draft Justin Hunter, the wide receiver from the University of Tennessee. It’s always difficult to value future draft picks, as every team has their own discount rate. So in addition having to figure out the value to be able to pick right now, we also don’t know whether that future pick will be in the beginning, middle, or end of the round. In this particular instance, it doesn’t matter, as the 49ers made out like bandits. For purposes of the calculator, I made the 2014 3rd rounder equal to the 97th pick in this draft. In that case…
On the bright side, with Hunter, Kenny Britt, and now Kendall Wright in the slot, Jake Locker has a lot of weapons this year. Throw in the additions of Andy Levitre and Chance Warmack, and the Titans have done everything they can to make the offense a strength in 2013. Still, it’s hard not to love what the 49ers did.
Winner: San Francisco, significantly. Not only did they get fantastic value, they then selected Tank Carradine, a top-20 talent at defensive end, with the 40th pick. Unreal. A day after the Vikings overpaid to draft one Volunteer receiver, the Titans do the same for the other.
Chart Used: The Jimmy Johnson chart with a dash of coach/GM on the hot seat
2) Arizona traded the 38th pick to San Diego in exchange for the 45th and 110th picks
The Chargers traded up to select Manti Te’o, giving up a fourth round pick. Te’o may not have made it to 45, so I applaud San Diego for identifying the player they wanted and moving up to grab him. From Arizona’s perspective, they apparently were targeting Kevin Minter at 38, and wound up landing him at 45, anyway.
Winner: The Cardinals, who bolstered an athletic, aggressive defense with Minter and later Tyrann Mathieu in the third round. Arizona will get to use an extra pick early tomorrow and gave up nothing for that privilege. The Chargers are rebuilding so giving up a 4th round pick is questionable, especially to move up just seven spots. Te’o will need to play like the 21st pick in the draft to make this a good deal.
Chart Used: More evidence that teams still use the Jimmy Johnson chart, as this trade perfectly matched up.
3) Cleveland traded picks 104 and 164 to Miami for picks 111 and 217 and Davone Bess
According to my chart, picks 111 and 217 are worth 4.9 points of marginal AV, while the 104/164 package is worth 7.1 points; meanwhile, the Jimmy Johnson chart says the Dolphins gave up 76.6 points in return for 111.8 points. Essentially, the teams valued Bess as equivalent to pick 142 (35 points) on the traditional chart or pick 162 (2.2 points) on my chart.
The interesting question isn’t whether Cleveland or Miami won this trade, but how this compares to the other trade involving a veteran. The Jets traded pick 106 to the Saints for Chris Ivory. So New York valued Ivory as an early-fourth round pick while the Browns traded the equivalent of a mid-fifth for Bess. Pitted against each other, I think the Browns made out better than the Jets, especially as draft picks have become more valuable. Getting a starting running back in the fourth round isn’t a bad deal, and many people (myself included) like Ivory as a player. But entering the start of the fourth round (and the Jets would have picked 9th in that round), UCLA’s Johnathan Franklin, Clemson’s Andre Ellington, South Carolina’s Marcus Lattimore, Oregon’s Kenjon Barner and Oklahoma State’s Joseph Randle have yet to be drafted. I’m not sure trading a fourth for Ivory (and then signing him to a new contract, as has been reported) was the wisest move. Meanwhile, the Browns get a good weapon for Brandon Weeden at minimal cost. Bess isn’t Tavon Austin, but he will help that offense, and was a worthwhile acquisition.
4) Green Bay traded pick 55 to San Francisco for picks 61 and 173
San Francisco traded up 6 spots to select Rice TE Vance McDonald. Somewhat of an odd move, as I don’t know how likely it was that McDonald was going to be off the board at 61. Then again, this is the team that selected A.J. Jenkins at 30 last year, so….
Winner: Green Bay, as the Packers selected Alabama running back Eddie Lacy at 61. Remember, many thought Ted Thompson would select Lacy in the first round; not only did the team get UCLA’s Datone Jones in the first round, and not only were the Packers lucky to see Lacy slide down to their second round pick, but Green Bay traded down and still got him.
Chart Used: Looks like an average of the two charts.
5) Seattle traded pick 56 to Baltimore for the 62nd, 165th, and 199th selections
The Ravens traded up for Arthur Brown in one of the more predictable moves of the day. It wasn’t much of a secret that Baltimore liked Brown, and with good reason: he was a steal at the end of round two. Technically, Baltimore lost this trade in my chart, receiving 9 points of expected marginal AV in exchange for 11.3 points. But the 2.3 points isn’t that significant to get a player many thought the Ravens would take at 32 (for what it’s worth, the expected marginal AV from the 32nd pick is 12.5 points). The Seahawks selected Christine Michael at 62, one pick after the Packers drafted Eddie Lacy. Did Seattle gamble that Lacy would drop to 62, or was Michael higher on their board?
Winner: This was a win-win. Despite being the defending Super Bowl champions, the Ravens arguably have more needs than Seattle, so trading three picks for one is rarely advisable. Still, getting Brown for the equivalent of the 39th pick (in my chart) is hardly a bad move. And while Seattle got some value according to my chart, I’m not sure it’s going to be put to great use: they spent the 62nd pick on a second- or third-string running back, so we can only imagine what they do with 165 and 199. I’d like to see teams like Seattle trading up, not down, but they did get good value for the pick.
Chart Used: Jimmy Johnson chart, with a small discount for this being a weak draft.
6) Miami traded pick 82 (received in the Brandon Marshall trade) to New Orleans for picks 106 and 109
The Saints packaged the pick they received for Ivory with #109 to move up to 82 for Georgia nose tackle John Jenkins. My chart says the Saints gave up 9.6 points for 6.5 points; on the other hand, the Saints won this trade according to the old chart. I’ll give the Saints a slight mulligan here because it’s probably more appropriate to think of this trade as Ivory and the 106th pick for the 82nd pick. No question it looks better for them in that light.
Winner: Win-win. Miami absolutely killed the Saints according to the chart (forget what the traditional chart says), but the Saints packaged a fourth-string running back and a fourth rounder for a nose tackle that had a second round grade by most scouts. Let’s not forget that New Orleans is moving to the 3-4 defense under Rob Ryan and didn’t have a viable starter on the roster (Akiem Hicks and Brodrick Bunkley were the top candidates). Miami clearly won the trade from a value standpoint, but if you’re going to take a bloodbath on the trade chart, you better be trading up for a player who 1) has dropped 20-30 picks or more, 2) fills a huge need on your roster, and 3) plays an impact position. It’s important not to be a slave to the chart, and this is one of those times I approve giving up the points.
Chart Used: Jimmy Johnson chart, although Jeff Ireland was wise to take “less than market value,” as he ended up with much more than market value.
7) Green Bay traded the 88th pick to San Francisco for the 93rd and 216th picks
The 49ers traded up for Corey Lemonier, the Auburn defensive end. The Jimmy Johnson trade chart wonders what the heck the Packers were thinking, moving down for just a throwaway pick (150 points vs. 133 points). Meanwhile, my chart calls it perfectly even!
Winner: The 49ers had thirteen draft picks, and they were never going to use them. As before, I’m not really sure that the 49ers needed to trade up to grab their player, but with so many extra picks, San Francisco could afford to burn them to remove any risk. More importantly, Trent Baalke managed to trade up without losing according to my chart, a very rare feat! For that, I give San Francisco the win here. More puzzling to me is that Green Bay couldn’t find a single player they liked that they were willing to move down five spots for next to nothing. Of course, that just set the stage for…
Chart Used: Football Perspective!
6) Green Bay traded pick 93 to Miami for picks 109, 146, and 224
Obviously, the Packers didn’t see anyone they liked at all at the end of the third round, and the Dolphins were happy to trade back up for Utah State cornerback Will Davis. My chart has the Dolphins sending 7.7 points of value for 5.7 points, a poor move unless they really love the player. On the other hand, Davis won’t even need to be more than a decent nickel back to make this a positive trade for Miami. And for what it’s worth, the Jimmy Johnson chart was much more favorable to Jeff Ireland.
On the other hand, if the Dolphins were going to take Davis at 82 (pure speculation on my part, and not something I’m advocating), then they were wise to trade down and take him at 93, even it they had to trade up later. They netted the 106th pick in exchange for 146 and 224; that trade straight up would be worth 163 cents on the dollar.
Winner: Green Bay got nice value here after getting no value at all in the previous trade down. I think we can infer that at 88 the Packers were willing to take anything to move down and find another suitor before the clock ran out and they were forced to pick. Ireland did a nice job getting extra picks and still landing Davis, who led the NCAA in passes defended last year, assuming that was the plan all along.
Chart Used: A combination of the two charts, but closer to the traditional chart.