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The 2014 Draft, Five Years Later

The 2014 Draft is now 5 years in the rear view mirror, which makes it a good time to review the results of that draft.

The graph below shows each player from the 2014 Draft. The X-Axis shows the amount of draft capital spent on each pick, in reverse order. So those players on the left side of the graph were drafted early, with late round picks on the far right side of the graph. The Y-Axis shows the amount of Career AV that player has produced, according to PFR.

Five years later, it’s now easy to see who were the best and worst picks. Some obviously good picks include Khalil Mack (5th overall), Aaron Donald (13th), Zack Martin (16th), C.J. Mosley (17th), Derek Carr (36th), Trai Turner (92nd), Devonta Freeman (103rd), James White (130th), Telvin Smith (144th pick), Avery Williamson (151st), Corey Linsley (161st),  Zach Fulton (193rd),  Matt Paradis (207th), and Charles Leno (246th).

The clear first round busts? There were a number of them, with Greg Robinson, Justin Gilbert, Calvin Pryor, Johnny Manziel, Darqueze Dennard, Jason Verrett, Marcus Smith, Dominique Easley, and Jimmie Ward have all disappointed, due to injuries, poor play, or both.

We can also take a formulaic approach to grade the entire draft. Here’s how to read the table below. Donald was taken in the 1st round with the 13th overall pick, by St. Louis. Donald cost 18.3 points of draft value, which is 1.3% of all draft value in the 2014 Draft. He has produced 69 points of Career AV, which is 2.3% of all career AV in the Draft. The “C – D%” column represents the difference between the precentage of career AV Donald has (2.3%) and the % of draft AV used on him (1.3%). He’s at 1%, which means he was a very good pick. Finally, the last 3 columns represent marginal AV, which is simply Career AV minus 10 points, to give more credit to the highest quality players. Donald has 3.9% of all Marginal AV, and therefore added 2.6% of value relative to his draft value.

By Marginal AV, Donald was the best pick in the draft. By Career AV, Telvin Smith was the best pick in the draft. Either way, both were great picks. The full results are below:

PlayerRndPickTmPosDr AVDr %CarAVCarAV %C - D%Mar AVMar AV%M - D%
Aaron Donald113STLDT18.31.3%692.3%1%593.9%2.6%
C.J. Mosley117BALLB16.61.2%592%0.8%493.2%2.1%
Telvin Smith5144JAXLB30.2%441.5%1.3%342.2%2%
Zack Martin116DALG16.91.2%541.8%0.6%442.9%1.7%
Khalil Mack15OAKLB24.31.7%602%0.3%503.3%1.6%
Derek Carr236OAKQB11.80.8%461.5%0.7%362.4%1.5%
Devonta Freeman4103ATLRB5.10.4%381.3%0.9%281.8%1.5%
Charles Leno7246CHIT00%311%1%211.4%1.4%
Trai Turner392CAROL5.80.4%371.2%0.8%271.8%1.4%
Brandin Cooks120NORWR15.51.1%471.6%0.5%372.4%1.4%
Avery Williamson5151TENLB2.70.2%331.1%0.9%231.5%1.3%
Corey Linsley5161GNBC2.20.2%321.1%0.9%221.4%1.3%
Jarvis Landry263MIAWR8.20.6%361.2%0.6%261.7%1.1%
Zach Fulton6193KANG1.10.1%280.9%0.9%181.2%1.1%
Justin Britt264SEAT8.10.6%351.2%0.6%251.6%1.1%
Morgan Moses366WASOL7.90.6%331.1%0.6%231.5%1%
Davante Adams253GNBWR9.30.6%341.1%0.5%241.6%0.9%
Preston Brown373BUFLB7.30.5%311%0.5%211.4%0.9%
James White4130NWERB3.60.3%270.9%0.7%171.1%0.9%
Russell Bodine4111CINC4.60.3%280.9%0.6%181.2%0.9%
Anthony Hitchens4119DALLB4.20.3%270.9%0.6%171.1%0.8%
Odell Beckham112NYGWR18.81.3%421.4%0.1%322.1%0.8%
Jake Matthews16ATLT23.21.6%461.5%-0.1%362.4%0.8%
Devon Kennard5174NYGDE1.70.1%230.8%0.7%130.9%0.7%
DaQuan Jones4112TENDT4.60.3%260.9%0.6%161.1%0.7%
Matt Paradis6207DENOL0.60%210.7%0.7%110.7%0.7%
Demarcus Lawrence234DALDE12.10.8%331.1%0.3%231.5%0.7%
Anthony Barr19MINLB20.61.4%421.4%0%322.1%0.7%
Laurent Duvernay-Tardif6200KANOL0.90.1%210.7%0.6%110.7%0.7%
Gabe Jackson381OAKG6.60.5%270.9%0.4%171.1%0.7%
John Brown391ARIWR5.90.4%250.8%0.4%151%0.6%
Shamar Stephen7220MINDT0.30%190.6%0.6%90.6%0.6%
Bashaud Breeland4102WASDB5.10.4%240.8%0.4%140.9%0.6%
Andre Hal7216HOUDB0.40%190.6%0.6%90.6%0.6%
Mike Evans17TAMWR22.21.5%421.4%-0.1%322.1%0.6%
Taylor Lewan111TENT19.31.3%381.3%-0.1%281.8%0.5%
Stephon Tuitt246PITDE10.20.7%280.9%0.2%181.2%0.5%
Allen Robinson261JAXWR8.40.6%260.9%0.3%161.1%0.5%
Michael Schofield395DENOL5.60.4%230.8%0.4%130.9%0.5%
T.J. Carrie7219OAKDB0.30%170.6%0.5%70.5%0.4%
Travis Swanson376DETC70.5%240.8%0.3%140.9%0.4%
Alfred Blue6181HOURB1.50.1%180.6%0.5%80.5%0.4%
Tre Boston4128CARDB3.70.3%200.7%0.4%100.7%0.4%
Christian Kirksey371CLELB7.50.5%240.8%0.3%140.9%0.4%
Jerick McKinnon396MINRB5.50.4%210.7%0.3%110.7%0.3%
Kevin Pamphile5149TAMT2.70.2%180.6%0.4%80.5%0.3%
Brandon Linder393JAXOL5.70.4%210.7%0.3%110.7%0.3%
Weston Richburg243NYGOL10.60.7%260.9%0.1%161.1%0.3%
Blake Bortles13JAXQB27.61.9%441.5%-0.4%342.2%0.3%
Martavis Bryant4118PITWR4.20.3%190.6%0.3%90.6%0.3%
Seantrel Henderson7237BUFOL00%140.5%0.5%40.3%0.3%
Justin Ellis4107OAKDT4.80.3%190.6%0.3%90.6%0.3%
Jack Mewhort259INDT8.60.6%230.8%0.2%130.9%0.3%
Joel Bitonio235CLEG120.8%260.9%0%161.1%0.2%
Ricardo Allen5147ATLDB2.80.2%160.5%0.3%60.4%0.2%
Cameron Fleming4140NWET3.10.2%160.5%0.3%60.4%0.2%
E.J. Gaines6188STLDB1.30.1%140.5%0.4%40.3%0.2%
Carlos Hyde257SFORB8.90.6%220.7%0.1%120.8%0.2%
Quincy Enunwa6209NYJWR0.60%130.4%0.4%30.2%0.2%
Nevin Lawson4133DETDB3.50.2%160.5%0.3%60.4%0.2%
Ha Ha Clinton-Dix121GNBDB15.21.1%280.9%-0.1%181.2%0.1%
Beau Allen7224PHIDT0.10%120.4%0.4%20.1%0.1%
Donte Moncrief390INDWR5.90.4%180.6%0.2%80.5%0.1%
Spencer Long378WASG6.90.5%190.6%0.2%90.6%0.1%
Jordan Matthews242PHIWR10.80.8%230.8%0%130.9%0.1%
Timmy Jernigan248BALDT9.90.7%220.7%0%120.8%0.1%
Jeremy Hill255CINRB9.10.6%210.7%0.1%110.7%0.1%
Ja'Wuan James119MIAT15.81.1%280.9%-0.2%181.2%0.1%
Kyle Van Noy240DETLB11.10.8%230.8%0%130.9%0.1%
Kyle Fuller114CHIDB17.81.2%301%-0.2%201.3%0.1%
Brent Urban4134BALDT3.40.2%140.5%0.2%40.3%0%
Shelby Harris7235OAKDE00%70.2%0.2%00%0%
Terrance Mitchell7254DALDB00%70.2%0.2%00%0%
Terrence Fede7234MIADE00%60.2%0.2%00%0%
Corey Nelson7242DENLB00%60.2%0.2%00%0%
Trevor Reilly7233NYJLB00%30.1%0.1%00%0%
Ulrick John7232INDOL00%20.1%0.1%00%0%
Jeff Janis7236GNBWR00%20.1%0.1%00%0%
James Wright7239CINWR00%20.1%0.1%00%0%
Demetrius Rhaney7250STLOL00%20.1%0.1%00%0%
Jabari Price7225MINDB00%10%0%00%0%
C.B. Bryant7241STLDB00%10%0%00%0%
Mitchell Van Dyk7226STLOL00%0%0%00%0%
Kiero Small7227SEARB00%00%0%00%0%
Zach Hocker7228WASK00%00%0%00%0%
Rob Blanchflower7230PITTE00%00%0%00%0%
Ben Gardner7231DALDE00%00%0%00%0%
Will Smith7238DALLB00%00%0%00%0%
Tevin Reese7240SDGWR00%00%0%00%0%
Kaleb Ramsey7243SFODE00%00%0%00%0%
Jeremy Gallon7244NWEWR00%0%0%00%0%
Trey Millard7245SFOFB00%00%0%00%0%
Jonathan Dowling7247OAKDB00%00%0%00%0%
Ahmad Dixon7248DALDB00%00%0%00%0%
Michael Sam7249STLDE00%00%0%00%0%
Ken Bishop7251DALDT00%00%0%00%0%
Lavelle Westbrooks7252CINDB00%0%0%00%0%
Yawin Smallwood7253ATLLB00%00%0%00%0%
Tyler Starr7255ATLLB00%00%0%00%0%
Lonnie Ballentine7256HOUDB00%00%0%00%0%
Nate Freese7229DETK00%-10%0%00%0%
Randell Johnson7221BUFLB0.20%20.1%0.1%00%0%
Storm Johnson7222JAXRB0.20%00%0%00%0%
Brandon Watts7223MINLB0.20%00%0%00%0%
Michael Campanaro7218BALWR0.30%40.1%0.1%00%0%
Ted Bolser7217WASTE0.30%00%0%00%0%
Deone Bucannon127ARIDB13.60.9%240.8%-0.1%140.9%0%
Daniel McCullers6215PITDT0.40%40.1%0.1%00%0%
Garrett Gilbert6214STLQB0.40%00%0%00%0%
Marquis Flowers6212CINLB0.50%60.2%0.2%00%0%
Jay Prosch6211HOUFB0.50%00%0%00%0%
Tajh Boyd6213NYJQB0.50%0%0%00%0%
IK Enemkpali6210NYJDT0.60%10%0%00%0%
Eric Pinkins6208SEADB0.60%00%0%00%0%
Luke Bowanko6205JAXC0.70%80.3%0.2%00%0%
Tyler Gaffney6204CARRB0.70%00%0%00%0%
Jemea Thomas6206NWEDB0.70%00%0%00%0%
Andrew Jackson6203INDLB0.80.1%10%0%00%-0.1%
Marion Grice6201SDGRB0.80.1%00%-0.1%00%-0.1%
Tavon Rooks6202NOROL0.80.1%00%-0.1%00%-0.1%
Aaron Lynch5150SFODE2.70.2%120.4%0.2%20.1%-0.1%
Wesley Johnson5173PITOL1.80.1%110.4%0.2%10.1%-0.1%
Zach Moore6198NWEDE0.90.1%30.1%0%00%-0.1%
Garrett Scott6199SEAOL0.90.1%00%-0.1%00%-0.1%
Ross Cockrell4109BUFDB4.70.3%140.5%0.1%40.3%-0.1%
Brandon Dixon6195NYJDB10.1%30.1%0%00%-0.1%
Demetri Goodson6197GNBDB10.1%20.1%0%00%-0.1%
Walt Powell6196ARIWR10.1%10%0%00%-0.1%
Jordan Zumwalt6192PITLB1.10.1%00%-0.1%00%-0.1%
Keith Wenning6194BALQB1.10.1%00%-0.1%00%-0.1%
Teddy Bridgewater132MINQB12.50.9%220.7%-0.1%120.8%-0.1%
Pat O'Donnell6191CHIP1.20.1%90.3%0.2%00%-0.1%
T.J. Jones6189DETWR1.20.1%60.2%0.1%00%-0.1%
Matt Hazel6190MIAWR1.20.1%00%-0.1%00%-0.1%
Lache Seastrunk6186WASRB1.30.1%00%-0.1%00%-0.1%
Bennett Jackson6187NYGDB1.30.1%00%-0.1%00%-0.1%
Ryan Shazier115PITLB17.41.2%270.9%-0.3%171.1%-0.1%
David Fales6183CHIQB1.40.1%10%-0.1%00%-0.1%
Kendall James6184MINDB1.40.1%00%-0.1%00%-0.1%
Robert Herron6185TAMWR1.40.1%00%-0.1%00%-0.1%
Kenneth Acker6180SFODB1.50.1%70.2%0.1%00%-0.1%
Antone Exum6182MINDB1.50.1%60.2%0.1%00%-0.1%
Jon Halapio6179NWEOL1.60.1%30.1%0%00%-0.1%
Jeoffrey Pagan6177HOUDE1.60.1%10%-0.1%00%-0.1%
Zach Mettenberger6178TENQB1.60.1%10%-0.1%00%-0.1%
John Urschel5175BALG1.70.1%70.2%0.1%00%-0.1%
Jared Abbrederis5176GNBWR1.70.1%10%-0.1%00%-0.1%
Jimmy Staten5172SEADT1.80.1%00%-0.1%00%-0.1%
Jordan Tripp5171MIALB1.90.1%30.1%0%00%-0.1%
Keith Reaser5170SFODB1.90.1%20.1%-0.1%00%-0.1%
Ronald Powell5169NORLB1.90.1%10%-0.1%00%-0.1%
Jonathan Newsome5166INDLB20.1%40.1%0%00%-0.1%
Vinnie Sunseri5167NORDB20.1%00%-0.1%00%-0.1%
Marquis Spruill5168ATLLB20.1%00%-0.1%00%-0.1%
Kelvin Benjamin128CARWR13.40.9%220.7%-0.2%120.8%-0.1%
A.J. McCarron5164CINQB2.10.1%30.1%0%00%-0.1%
Ryan Carrethers5165SDGDT2.10.1%30.1%0%00%-0.1%
Ed Reynolds5162PHIDB2.20.2%30.1%-0.1%00%-0.2%
Aaron Murray5163KANQB2.20.2%00%-0.2%00%-0.2%
Chris Smith5159JAXDE2.30.2%60.2%0%00%-0.2%
Ed Stinson5160ARIDE2.30.2%50.2%0%00%-0.2%
Caraun Reid5158DETDT2.40.2%80.3%0.1%00%-0.2%
Lamin Barrow5156DENLB2.40.2%20.1%-0.1%00%-0.2%
Shaquille Richardson5157PITDB2.40.2%00%-0.2%00%-0.2%
Jeremiah George5154NYJLB2.50.2%30.1%-0.1%00%-0.2%
Arthur Lynch5155MIATE2.50.2%00%-0.2%00%-0.2%
Trent Murphy247WASLB10.10.7%180.6%-0.1%80.5%-0.2%
Nat Berhe5152NYGDB2.60.2%30.1%-0.1%00%-0.2%
Cyril Richardson5153BUFG2.60.2%20.1%-0.1%00%-0.2%
Bene Benwikere5148CARDB2.80.2%100.3%0.1%00%-0.2%
Xavier Su'a-Filo233HOUG12.30.9%200.7%-0.2%100.7%-0.2%
Devin Street5146DALWR2.90.2%10%-0.2%00%-0.2%
David Yankey5145MINOL2.90.2%00%-0.2%00%-0.2%
Ryan Grant5142WASWR30.2%100.3%0.1%00%-0.2%
Kadeem Edwards5143TAMOL30.2%00%-0.2%00%-0.2%
Taylor Hart5141PHIDE3.10.2%10%-0.2%00%-0.2%
Lorenzo Taliaferro4138BALRB3.20.2%30.1%-0.1%00%-0.2%
Prince Shembo4139ATLLB3.20.2%20.1%-0.2%00%-0.2%
Dee Ford123KANLB14.61%220.7%-0.3%120.8%-0.2%
Dakota Dozier4137NYJOL3.30.2%40.1%-0.1%00%-0.2%
Larry Webster4136DETDE3.30.2%00%-0.2%00%-0.2%
Tom Savage4135HOUQB3.40.2%40.1%-0.1%00%-0.2%
Aaron Colvin4114JAXDB4.40.3%110.4%0.1%10.1%-0.2%
Kevin Pierre-Louis4132SEALB3.50.2%50.2%-0.1%00%-0.2%
Richard Rodgers398GNBTE5.40.4%120.4%0%20.1%-0.2%
Kareem Martin384ARIDE6.40.4%130.4%0%30.2%-0.2%
Brock Vereen4131CHIDB3.60.3%20.1%-0.2%00%-0.3%
Dontae Johnson4129SFODB3.70.3%100.3%0.1%00%-0.3%
Maurice Alexander4110STLDB4.70.3%110.4%0%10.1%-0.3%
Pierre Desir4127CLEDB3.80.3%100.3%0.1%00%-0.3%
Khairi Fortt4126NORLB3.80.3%00%-0.3%00%-0.3%
Terrance West394CLERB5.70.4%120.4%0%20.1%-0.3%
De'Anthony Thomas4124KANRB3.90.3%70.2%0%00%-0.3%
Walt Aikens4125MIADB3.90.3%60.2%-0.1%00%-0.3%
Marqueston Huff4122TENDB40.3%40.1%-0.1%00%-0.3%
Kevin Norwood4123SEAWR40.3%10%-0.2%00%-0.3%
Bryan Stork4105NWEC50.3%110.4%0%10.1%-0.3%
Logan Thomas4120ARIQB4.10.3%20.1%-0.2%00%-0.3%
Carl Bradford4121GNBLB4.10.3%00%-0.3%00%-0.3%
Keith McGill4116OAKDB4.30.3%40.1%-0.2%00%-0.3%
Ka'Deem Carey4117CHIRB4.30.3%30.1%-0.2%00%-0.3%
Lamarcus Joyner241STLDB110.8%170.6%-0.2%70.5%-0.3%
Shaquelle Evans4115NYJWR4.40.3%00%-0.3%00%-0.3%
Andre Williams4113NYGRB4.50.3%70.2%-0.1%00%-0.3%
Marqise Lee239JAXWR11.30.8%170.6%-0.2%70.5%-0.3%
Charles Sims369TAMRB7.60.5%130.4%-0.1%30.2%-0.3%
Cassius Marsh4108SEADE4.80.3%90.3%0%00%-0.3%
Bruce Ellington4106SFOWR4.90.3%70.2%-0.1%00%-0.3%
Jalen Saunders4104NYJWR50.3%00%-0.3%00%-0.3%
Jaylen Watkins4101PHIDB5.20.4%30.1%-0.3%00%-0.4%
Crockett Gillmore399BALTE5.30.4%40.1%-0.2%00%-0.4%
Brandon Thomas3100SFOOL5.30.4%00%-0.4%00%-0.4%
Dri Archer397PITWR5.50.4%00%-0.4%00%-0.4%
Chris Watt389SDGG60.4%40.1%-0.3%00%-0.4%
Will Clarke388CINDE6.10.4%60.2%-0.2%00%-0.4%
Phillip Gaines387KANDB6.20.4%70.2%-0.2%00%-0.4%
Josh Huff386PHIWR6.20.4%60.2%-0.2%00%-0.4%
Khyri Thornton385GNBDT6.30.4%30.1%-0.3%00%-0.4%
Will Sutton382CHIDT6.50.5%90.3%-0.2%00%-0.5%
Louis Nix383HOUDT6.50.5%00%-0.5%00%-0.5%
Kony Ealy260CARDE8.50.6%120.4%-0.2%20.1%-0.5%
Dexter McDougle380NYJDB6.70.5%20.1%-0.4%00%-0.5%
Terrence Brooks379BALDB6.80.5%60.2%-0.3%00%-0.5%
Billy Turner367MIAT7.80.5%110.4%-0.2%10.1%-0.5%
Chris Borland377SFOLB6.90.5%60.2%-0.3%00%-0.5%
Sammy Watkins14BUFWR25.81.8%301%-0.8%201.3%-0.5%
Bradley Roby131DENDB12.70.9%160.5%-0.3%60.4%-0.5%
Tre Mason375STLRB7.10.5%70.2%-0.3%00%-0.5%
Jay Bromley374NYGDT7.20.5%70.2%-0.3%00%-0.5%
Scott Crichton372MINDE7.40.5%20.1%-0.4%00%-0.5%
Marcus Martin370SFOC7.50.5%100.3%-0.2%00%-0.5%
Dezmen Southward368ATLDB7.70.5%10%-0.5%00%-0.5%
C.J. Fiedorowicz365HOUTE80.6%60.2%-0.4%00%-0.6%
Jadeveon Clowney11HOUDE34.62.4%381.3%-1.1%281.8%-0.6%
Jimmy Garoppolo262NWEQB8.30.6%100.3%-0.2%00%-0.6%
Paul Richardson245SEAWR10.40.7%120.4%-0.3%20.1%-0.6%
Eric Ebron110DETTE19.91.4%220.7%-0.6%120.8%-0.6%
Stanley Jean-Baptiste258NORDB8.70.6%00%-0.6%00%-0.6%
Cody Latimer256DENWR90.6%40.1%-0.5%00%-0.6%
Bishop Sankey254TENRB9.20.6%60.2%-0.4%00%-0.6%
Troy Niklas252ARITE9.40.7%10%-0.6%00%-0.7%
Ego Ferguson251CHIDT9.60.7%20.1%-0.6%00%-0.7%
Jeremiah Attaochu250SDGLB9.70.7%90.3%-0.4%00%-0.7%
Jace Amaro249NYJTE9.80.7%40.1%-0.5%00%-0.7%
Cyrus Kouandjio244BUFT10.50.7%70.2%-0.5%00%-0.7%
Austin Seferian-Jenkins238TAMTE11.40.8%90.3%-0.5%00%-0.8%
Ra'Shede Hageman237ATLDT11.60.8%80.3%-0.5%00%-0.8%
Jason Verrett125SDGDB14.11%120.4%-0.6%20.1%-0.9%
Calvin Pryor118NYJDB16.21.1%140.5%-0.7%40.3%-0.9%
Jimmie Ward130SFODB12.90.9%100.3%-0.6%00%-0.9%
Dominique Easley129NWEDT13.20.9%70.2%-0.7%00%-0.9%
Marcus Smith126PHILB13.91%30.1%-0.9%00%-1%
Darqueze Dennard124CINDB14.41%100.3%-0.7%00%-1%
Johnny Manziel122CLEQB14.91%50.2%-0.9%00%-1%
Greg Robinson12STLT30.22.1%210.7%-1.4%110.7%-1.4%
Justin Gilbert18CLEDB21.41.5%40.1%-1.4%00%-1.5%
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