There have been 8 trades in the 21st century where an NFL veteran was traded for two first round picks. ^[1]I understand that this is an arbitrary way to look at trading players. The Vikings received the 7th pick in the 2005 Draft for Randy Moss; that’s a more valuable draft haul than getting first … Continue reading Today I am going to analyze those trades.

In half of those cases — the older ones — the player was traded before the NFL Draft, which allowed the trading team to get some immediate draft picks. In the other half (which have all occurred in the last three years), the team trading away two first round picks wouldn’t lose any picks until the next season; presumably, that helped incentivize them to make the deal, as there is always a discount rate applied to trading future picks.

Let’s look at these 8 trades, from who gave up the least to who gave up the most. Note that I am only looking at draft value (or players, when included in the trade) sent over for the player; I am ignoring the contract part of the analysis, along with how good the player actually was. On to the list…

#8 Khalil Mack to Chicago

When: After the 2018 NFL Draft (September 1, to be exact).

At the time: Chicago sent 2019-1, 2020-1, 2020-3, and 2019-6 to Oakland for Mack, a 2020-2, and a conditional 2020-5 (that would become a 7th round pick).

With hindsight: Chicago sent the 24th pick in 2019, (Josh Jacobs), the 19th pick in 2020 (Damon Arnette), the 81st pick in 2020 (Bryan Edwards), and the 196th pick (Blessuan Austin) in 2019 for Mack, the 43rd pick in 2020 (Cole Kmet), and the 226th pick in 2020 (Arlington Hambright).

Verdict: Chicago sent slightly less than two first round picks because they also moved up from the 3rd round to the 2nd round in 2020; as it turns out, the Bears moved up from 81 to 43. Applying a 10% discount to Year N+1 picks and a 20% discount to Year N+2 picks, Chicago gave up about 23-24 points of draft value on my chart and roughly 1100-1200 points of draft value on the traditional chart. That’s equivalent to a top-15 draft pick, and perhaps as high as a top-6 draft pick.

Burned by future picks? No. Chicago didn’t get what it hoped for, but the Bears didn’t wind up giving away a high-end first round pick.

Overall trade results: There are no clear-cut winners or losers in this deal; I don’t think either team is all that close to a Super Bowl right now. Chicago did get an immediate year 1 return, but the Mack trade hampered the ability of the team to build a better offense. It’s too early to grade the Raiders picks.

#7 Laremy Tunsil to Houston

When: After the 2019 NFL Draft (August 31)

At the time: Houston sent 2020-1, 2021-1, 2021-2, Johnson Bademosi, and Julie’n Davenport for Tunsil, Kenny Stills, 2020-4, and 2021-6

With hindsight: Houston had a good 2020 season, so they only sent the 26th pick ^[2]Miami subsequently moved down from 26 to 30 in the 2020 Draft, grabbing a 4th rounder and selecting Noah Igbinoghene at 30. in 2020 (Jordan Love) to Miami. We will find out in a few months what the 2021 first and second round picks will be.  As for the players, Johnson Bademosi barely played, while Julie’n Davenport started 8 games at LT for Miami but was not good.   On the other side, the Texans received Tunsil, Kenny Stills (who was the team’s third receiver), the 111th pick in 2020 (Solomon Kindley) and a 2021 sixth round pick.

Verdict: One of the more complicated trades to analyze, in part because of the 3 veterans included with Tunsil. I will assume that Houston’s 2021 picks (Year N+2) will be average, and am valuing the two Texans traded as (combined) equal to mid-6th round picks in Year N. On the Miami side, I am counting Stills as equivalent to a Year N 4th round pick, which helps the Texans side of things a bit. Using the 10% discount rate for Year N+1 picks and 20% for Year N+2, the Texans gave up between 25 and 26 points of AV on my draft chart, and between 1550-1600 points on the traditional chart. In either case, Houston sent the equivalent of a top-10, and nearly top-5, overall pick to Miami for Tunsil and Stills.  This trade looks a lot better if both of those first round picks end up being very late.

Burned by future picks? To be determined.

Overall trade results: To be determined.

#6 Ricky Williams to Miami

When: Before the 2002 NFL Draft (March 8)

At the time: Miami sent 2002-1 (known to be the 25th overall pick), 2002-4 (125th overall), and a conditional 2003 pick to New Orleans for Williams and the Saints’ 2002-4 (114).

With hindsight: Williams led the NFL in rushing yards with 1,853 in 2002, which made that conditional pick flip into a first rounder (Williams needed 1,500 yards for that to happen). So Miami wound up sending the 25th pick in 2002 (Charles Grant), the 18th pick in 2003 (Calvin Pace), ^[3]The Saints packaged the 17th (their own pick) and 18th picks to Arizona to move up to draft Johnathan Sullivan with the 6th pick. and the 125th pick in 2002 (Keyuo Craver) to New Orleans for Williams and the 114th pick in 2002 (Randy McMichael).

Verdict: Essentially, the Dolphins sent two mid-to-late first round picks to get Williams and to move up 11 spots in the 4th round. Miami gave up 28-29 points of AV on my chart, and 1500-1550 points of value on the JJ chart, to the Saints to get Williams. That’s equivalent to at least a top-10 draft pick, and arguably a top-5 pick.

Burned by future picks? No. Miami sent the 18th overall pick in Year N+1. Not ideal, but within the range of reasonable outcomes.

Overall trade results: The initial returns were good — Williams was a dominant player early on in Miami — but he retired after two seasons with the team. Grant was a fine player but the Saints botched the trade-up in the 2003 Draft, erasing any great return from this deal.

#5 Jamal Adams to Seattle

When: After the 2020 NFL Draft (July 25)

At the time: Seattle sent 2021-1, 2022-1, 2021-3, and Bradley McDougald to the Jets for Adams and 2022-4.

Verdict:  The Seahawks gave up two future first round picks; more likely than not, those picks won’t be early picks, but one of the risks in trading away future picks is many teams (especially Seattle) are just one QB injury away from having a very bad season.   But this was more than just trading two first round picks: the Seahawks traded a starting safety *and* a Year N+1 3rd round pick (and only got back a Year N+2 4th round pick). This is unequivocally a bigger haul than what the Raiders got for Mack. On the other hand, Mack was 4 years into his career, while Adams is just 3 years; Seattle gets that extra year of play on a cost-controlled contract, which should factor into any complete analysis. ^[4]But contract analysis will be outside the scope of this article.

If we apply a 10% discount rate to each year, and presume that the Seahawks 1st round picks will be around 24 overall, and treat McDougald as roughly equivalent to a 2020 4th round pick…  then I have the Jets receiving about 29-30 points of AV on my draft chart, and 1350-1400 points on the traditional JJ chart.  That means the Jets received a top-10 overall pick for Adams on the traditional chart, and a top-3 overall pick on my chart.

Burned by future picks? To be determined.

Overall trade results: To be determined.

#4 Jay Cutler to Chicago

When: Before the 2009 NFL Draft (April 2)

At the time: Chicago sent 2009-1 (known when traded to be the 18th pick in the 2009 Draft), a 2010-1, the 84th pick in the 2009 Draft, and Kyle Orton to Denver for Cutler and the 140th pick in the 2009 Draft (a fifth round selection).

With hindsight: Chicago sent the 18th (Robert Ayers) and 84th (Mike Wallace) picks in ’09, along with the 11th pick in 2010 (Anthony Davis) ^[5]Denver traded down from 11 to 13 with San Francisco, picking up a 4th round pick in the process, and then from 13 down to 24 while picking up 70 and 87…. and then used that 4th round pick … Continue reading and Orton for Cutler and the 140th pick (Johnny Knox).

Verdict: Valuing Orton is a challenge in this analysis; the Bears obviously wanted to move on from him, but a young, capable starting QB holds value.  This part is more art than science, but I’ll say Orton — who was the 106th pick in the draft two years earlier and had overplayed to date (he finished 21st in ANY/A with Chicago in 2009) — was worth the 60th pick in the draft. ^[6]While it’s tempting to say Orton held no value anymore to Chicago, the Bears could have traded him to another team for draft picks if the Broncos hadn’t required him to be included here. If we do that, it would mean that Chicago sent about 28-29 points of value on my draft chart and 1800-1900 points of value on the traditional chart.   This involves using the 11th pick in Year N+1, which is surely more capital than the Bears expected it would have been.  But by either chart, Chicago gave up the value of a top-5 overall draft pick.

Burned by future picks?  Yes.  When the 9-7 Bears traded for Cutler, he was expected to be the missing link and savior; instead, Chicago ended up forfeiting the 11th overall pick.

Overall trade results: Not good for Chicago — Cutler never turned into the player they hoped for and underachieved in Chicago.  He did have some good stretches, but overall this was not a great trade for Chicago and turned out to be an excellent one for Denver.

#3 Jalen Ramsey to Los Angeles

When: After the 2019 NFL Draft (October 15)

At the time: The Rams sent 2020-1, 2021-1, and 2021-4 to Jacksonville for Ramsey.

With hindsight: The Rams sent the 20th pick in 2020 (K’Lavon Chaisson); to be determined the actual value of the 2021 first and fourth round picks.

Verdict: If we assume the Rams 2021 pick will be an average pick, this is still quite a haul. It’s clearly more than what Chicago gave for Mack, and — if we assume the Rams are a slightly worse team than the Seahawks — it’s more than Seattle gave for Jamal Adams. ^[7]I’m not sure if that’s the fairest way to think about things; after all, a team can only give up its own picks, and Seattle gave more. The difference being the Seahawks sent a Year N+1 … Continue reading According to the FP chart, Los Angeles gave up 30-31 points of AV, equivalent to the 1st or 2nd pick in the Draft. Meanwhile, even on the traditional JJ chart, LA gave up between 1550-1600 points, worth between the 6th and 7th overall picks.

This is also the last of the four recent trades, and highlights an interesting development.  Chicago (Mack), Los Angeles (Ramsey), Houston (Tunsil) and Seattle (Adams) all thought they were on the verge of competing for a Super Bowl, and were able to make a draft after the NFL Draft.  As a result, the opportunity to acquire a star player was very compelling, since they wouldn’t have to give up draft capital in the current season, increasing their odds of winning a title immediately.  Of course, that hasn’t worked out so well in practice, and the Rams actually wound up missing the playoffs just a couple of months after trading for Ramsey.

Burned by future picks? To be determined. There’s certainly a chance the bottom falls out for Los Angeles, so watch out.

Overall trade results: To be determined.

#2 Keyshawn Johnson to Tampa Bay

When: Before the 2000 NFL Draft (April 12)

At the time: Tampa Bay sent its two first round picks — #13 and #27 — to the Jets for Keyshawn Johnson.

With hindsight:  This is the easiest trade to analyze: it was very simple and involved no future picks.  The Bucs knew what they were sending at the time: their own first round pick (#27) and the Chargers first round pick (#13), which they acquired in the most absurd way possible.

Verdict: While the Bucs may have been playing with house money with San Diego’s pick, this was still an enormous haul.  There’s no discount applicable when you send two draft picks that will be used that month, and the 13th and 27th overall picks are equal to 31.9 points of draft value on my chart and 1830 points of draft value on the traditional chart.  That is equivalent to a top-4 pick on either chart.

Unlike the Mack/Ramsey/Adams/Tunsil trades, the Bucs had to give up immediate draft capital which would hurt their chances of winning a title in Year N.  Of course, they would soon win a title in Year N+2.

Burned by future picks? Not applicable.

Overall trade results: The Jets wound up getting John Abraham and Anthony Becht, which helped bolster the talent on a Jets team that would make the postseason in ’01, ’03, and ’04.  Tampa Bay got Johnson, who would be the team’s best offensive player over the next two years.  He would help the Bucs win the Super Bowl, but then was suspended by the team in ’03 and traded after the season for … Joey Galloway.

#1 Joey Galloway to Dallas

When: Before the 2000 NFL Draft (February 12)

At the time: Dallas sent its first round pick in the 2000 Draft — #19 overall — and its 2001 first round pick to Seattle for Galloway.

With hindsight: The Cowboys wound up sending the 19th overall pick in ’00 (Shaun Alexander) and the 7th overall pick in ’01 (Andre Carter) to Seattle ^[8]The Seahawks moved down from 7 to 9 to draft Koren Robinson, picking up a 3rd round pick (Heath Evans) in the process. for Galloway.

Verdict: This was a disastrous trade for the Cowboys and also for Galloway, a great receiver who was hampered by injuries and poor quarterback play.  He tore his ACL in the season opener in ’00, and then was stuck with Quincy Carter, Anthony Wright, Chad Hutchinson, and Ryan Leaf as his passers the next two years. This turned out marvelously for the Seahawks: Alexander became a superstar, and Robinson was a good player for a few years (although probably not worth a top-10 pick). Based on the Football Perspective chart, the Cowboys gave up 35.8 points of draft value (more than the 1st overall pick!), and 2,225 points on the traditional chart. They are obviously penalized heavily for giving up the 7th pick in Year N+1;  but even if we made that the 17th pick, they would have still traded 30.7 points of draft value on my chart, and 1,730 on the traditional chart.

Burned by future picks? Yes.  The Cowboys hoped Galloway would bring back the team’s glory days from the ’90s; instead, Dallas finished 5-11.

Overall trade results: The Cowboys made history with an exorbitant return on the Herschel Walker trade, but since 2000, no team has given up more for an NFL veteran.