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On Tuesday, I looked at which receivers produced the most Adjusted Catch Yards over the baseline of worst starter. Yesterday, I used that data to help identify which receivers produced their numbers in the most pass-happy offenses. Today, instead of measuring wide receivers by how often their teams passed, I want to measure them by how well they passed.

Some teams are very efficient at passing because they have great wide receivers: to be clear, today’s post doesn’t prove anything about which way the causation arrow runs. But I do think it’s worth quantifying the reality that receivers produce their numbers in very disparte environments. Let’s use Joey Galloway as an example. Galloway, longtime readers will recall, was a favorite of an early iteration of Doug Drinen’s attempts at ranking wide receivers. For similar reasons, Galloway comes out “very good” in this system, if good means producing numbers while playing for bad passing offenses (a proxy, one could argue, for playing with bad quarterbacks).

Galloway produced 2,071 Adjusted Catch Yards above the baseline in his career, good for an unremarkable 84th place on Tuesday’s list. But let’s look at the 8 seasons that get Galloway there:

  • In 2005, Galloway produced 1,902 ACY, which was 600 ACY above the baseline. That represents 29% of Galloway’s career ACY above the baseline grade. And that year — at age 34, mind you — Galloway played for the Bucs. Chris Simms was the quarterback, and Tampa Bay averaged 0.42 Adjusted Net Yards per Attemp below league average (a metric known as the team’s Relative ANY/A). So, when thinking about Galloway’s career, we assign 29% of his career team pass efficiency a grade of -0.42.
  • In 1997, Galloway produced 1,649 ACY, 396 ACY above the baseline. That’s 19% of Galloway’s career 2,071 ACY above the baseline, and it came while playing with a 41-year-old Warren Moon in Seattle. The Seahawks had a RANY/A of +0.32 that season, so 19% of Galloway’s career RANY/A grade is +0.32.
  • In 1998, Galloway produced 1,572 ACY, 292 ACY above the baseline (14%). He was in Seattle with a then 42-year-old Moon, and the Sahawks had a RANY/A of -0.23.
  • In ’95, Galloway had 1,514 ACY, 266 ACY above the baseline (13%). He was playing with Rick Mirer, and the Seahawks had a RANY/A of -1.03.
  • In ’06, Galloway had 1,507 ACY, 257 ACY above the baseline (12%). He was playing with Bruce Gradkowski, and Tampa Bay had a RANY/A of -1.39.
  • In ’07, Galloway — at age 36(!) — had 1,419 ACY in 15 games, 98 ACY above the baseline (5%). He was playing with 37-year-old Jeff Garcia, and the Bucs had a RANY/A of +0.87.
  • In ’96, Galloway had 1,412 ACY, 96 ACY above the baseline (5%). Mirer was still the Sahawks quarterback, and the team had a -0.36 RANY/A.
  • Finally, in 2002, Galloawy had 1,333 ACY, or 66 ACY above the baseline (3%). Chad Hutchinson and Quincy Carter split the quarterback duties, and the team had a RANY/A of -1.19.

As a result, Galloway’s teams, over those 8 years, had a weighted-average RANY/A of -0.41. Now, in the abstract, that might not mean too much to you: it seems to imply that Galloway played on some below-average passing teams, but nothing more. But most receivers that produce strong ACY numbers played on good passing teams. Of the 100 receivers we have been examining, Galloway’s -0.41 RANY/A ranks… 99th! Only Lionel Taylor, who plied his trade for the terrible Broncos in the early years of the AFL, has a worse grade. And in fact, just four of those 100 receivers had a weighted RANY/A (using the methodology described above) that was below average! In that regard, Galloway’s ability to stand out while playing for poor passing teams looks pretty remarkable. [1]He’s also one of four players (as of 2013) who had 1,000-yard seasons with 5 different quarterbacks).

Let’s take a look at the 100 players with the most ACY above the baseline in both graph and table form.

acy anya

And here’s the full data set for the 100 players, sorted by career RANY/A. Here’s how to read the top line, which belongs to former Browns receiver Dante Lavelli (Otto Graham’s other main target, Mac Speedie, is second on the list). Lavelli played from ’46 to ’56, and is in the Hall of Fame. He totaled 2,227 Adjusted Catch Yards above the baseline, good enough for 80th all-time. His Browns teams were not very pass-happy, throwing just (on a weighted-average basis) 90.6% as often as the rest of the league. That ranks just 97th on this list of 100 players as far as pass-happiness. However, his Browns teams had a (weighted average) Relative ANY/A of 4.32, the best of this group of 100 players.

RANY/A RkPlayerFirst YrLast YearHOF?ACYACY RkPass-HappyPass Happy RkRANY/A
1Dante Lavelli19461956Yes22278090.6%974.32
2Mac Speedie19461952No339434102.3%633.91
3Elroy Hirsch19461957Yes282054107.5%373.32
4Mark Duper19821992No197397106.4%412.46
5Don Hutson19351945Yes121122122.1%12.28
6Jordy Nelson20082014Not El.195510098.6%872.2
7Mark Clayton19831993No319640111%202.1
8Tom Fears19481956Yes267761119.3%22.08
9Demaryius Thomas20102014Not El.258466107.1%402.07
10Warren Wells19641970No216383107.8%352.07
11Lenny Moore19561967Yes209590113.8%131.96
12Wes Chandler19781988No315544112.3%191.95
13Wes Welker20042014Not El.370329108.5%311.91
14Jerry Rice19852004Yes121231105.2%481.86
15Kellen Winslow19791987Yes278155118.3%31.84
16Raymond Berry19551967Yes369130114.8%71.81
17Charley Hennigan19601966No323038111%211.77
18Marvin Harrison19962008No72293103%581.76
19Paul Warfield19641977Yes21108987.4%1001.73
20Cliff Branch19721985No27365793.1%951.68
21Mal Kutner19461950No201194104.2%531.68
22Randy Moss19982012Not El.70214103%571.59
23Gene Washington19691979No231378102.3%641.58
24Drew Pearson19731983No215285105.5%471.57
25George Sauer19651970No206293109.8%251.57
26Reggie Wayne20012014Not El.509211107.3%381.56
27Charley Taylor19641977Yes332636108.3%331.54
28Lance Alworth19621972Yes5629797%911.48
29Bob Hayes19651975Yes29305299.5%811.45
30Tommy McDonald19571968Yes277556108.9%291.42
31Otis Taylor19651975No25926594.1%931.36
32Fred Biletnikoff19651978Yes292253103.7%551.34
33Marques Colston20062014Not El.237472114.7%81.33
34Cris Collinsworth19811988No220681100%781.27
35Dwight Clark19791987No235075113.5%151.26
36John Jefferson19781985No206692114.5%101.24
37Terrell Owens19962010Not El.62265101.7%691.24
38Michael Irvin19881999Yes47201693.5%941.22
39Gary Clark19851995No347632100.4%761.2
40Harlon Hill19541962No234576101.5%711.13
41Charlie Joiner19691986Yes270360115.5%61.13
42Antonio Brown20102014Not El.218982105.8%451.12
43Pete Pihos19471955Yes265162115.7%51.04
44Dez Bryant20102014Not El.211188102.1%651
45Rod Smith19952006No40822598.8%860.99
46Stanley Morgan19771990No19809697.2%900.99
47Billy Howton19521963No318941114.6%90.98
48Don Maynard19581973Yes486314107.2%390.98
49John Gilliam19671977No272858102.8%610.94
50Del Shofner19571967No322039109.4%260.84
51John Stallworth19741987Yes25226992.9%960.78
52Roy Green19791992No233577105.7%460.77
53Cris Carter19872002Yes514810106.3%420.75
54Art Monk19801995Yes297850100.6%740.74
55Henry Ellard19831998No342233101.6%700.7
56Buddy Dial19591966No19579989.5%990.69
57Andre Reed19852000Yes31274697.3%890.68
58Jim Benton19381947No437519113.5%140.64
59Harold Carmichael19711984No294251114.1%120.62
60Torry Holt19992009No60046114.2%110.6
61Roddy White20052014Not El.377528102.1%670.6
62Keenan McCardell19922007No243571105.1%490.59
63Gary Garrison19661977No262963108.8%300.58
64Tim Brown19882004Yes50471299.1%830.58
65Tony Gonzalez19972013Not El.313845106.3%440.57
66Jimmy Smith19922005No46541799.6%800.55
67Isaac Bruce19942009No487713110.2%240.55
68Eric Moulds19962007No235373102.9%590.52
69Chad Johnson20012011Not El.434420102.1%660.52
70Bobby Mitchell19581968Yes305048110.6%230.49
71Muhsin Muhammad19962009No212386106.3%430.49
72Derrick Mason19972011Not El.304049100.5%750.48
73Harold Jackson19681983No31634299.7%790.48
74Hines Ward19982011Not El.31634397.4%880.46
75Irving Fryar19842000No230879109.4%270.45
76Herman Moore19912002No386327100.2%770.45
77Steve Smith20012014Not El.41052490.1%980.45
78Donald Driver19992012Not El.253968112.6%170.41
79Drew Hill19791993No270559104.8%500.39
80Andre Johnson20032014Not El.52399103.2%560.36
81Santana Moss20012014Not El.19899599.1%820.35
82Steve Largent19761989Yes53668102.9%600.34
83Billy Wilson19511960No259764104.5%510.33
84Joe Horn19962007No311047102.5%620.32
85Andre Rison19892000No326037108.9%280.3
86Hugh Taylor19471954No19699896.6%920.29
87Keyshawn Johnson19962006No212187101.8%680.21
88Art Powell19591968No434221107.7%360.18
89Brandon Marshall20062014Not El.40752698.8%850.16
90Calvin Johnson20072014Not El.472115117.4%40.1
91James Lofton19781993Yes427122100.8%730.05
92Todd Christensen19791988No235174101.1%720.04
93Carl Pickens19922000No215484104.1%540.04
94Sterling Sharpe19881994No421623110.6%220.04
95Larry Fitzgerald20042014Not El.441218113.4%160.03
96Anquan Boldin20032014Not El.335635108.4%320
97Anthony Miller19881997No258167104.3%52-0.11
98Mike Quick19821990No244570108.1%34-0.33
99Joey Galloway19952010Not El.20719199.1%84-0.41
100Lionel Taylor19591968No358331112.4%18-1

If you sort the list by RANY/A in ascending order, you’ll see Galloway there at #99. And while Taylor played on worse passing teams, because Denver was so bad, they passed all the time, and Taylor’s teams ranked 18th in pass-happiness. By contrast, Galloway was on bad passing teams and pass-averse teams. That makes it really hard to put up good numbers. Which is why Galloway may be one of the most underrated receivers in NFL history.

  • Lionel Taylor certainly stands out as one of the more unique wide receivers in football history. Doug Drinen claimed that Galloway played with the worst quarterbacks of any receiver since the merger, and the data here — produced many years after Doug’s claim — supports that theory! However, Taylor’s quarerbacks were even worse. For his career, 34% of his yards came from Frank Tripucka, 17% from Mickey Slaughter, 12% from John McCormick, 11% from Jacky Lee, and 7% from George Herring. In 1961, Denver ranked last in the 8-team AFL in ANY/A, while Taylor caught 100 passes and ranked second in the league in receiving yards. In ’63, the Broncos were second-to-last in ANY/A, and Taylor led the league in receptions and ranked 3rd in receiving yards. In ’64, the Broncos were last in ANY/A. Taylor was playing on terrible passing teams, but very pass-happy ones (remember, Tripucka ranked #1 on this list). As a result, it’s hard to really rank Taylor, as he stands out as such a unique case in football history. He was certainly padding his numbers in meaningless blowouts, but he was doing it better than just about any receiver on bad teams has ever done so.
  • Galloway’s career is mostly summed up by the words, What If? What if Galloway didn’t missed one and a half seasons in his prime because of a holdout and a knee injury? What if the quarterback who was responsible for more of Galloway’s receiving yards than anyone else wasn’t Quincy Carter? What if Galloway’s first four seasons weren’t split among Rick Mirer and an over-the-hill Warren Moon? What if the Galloway, who ranks 2nd in receiving yards from ages 34 to 36, played in favorable pass environments during his prime years?
  • We’re always all about Smitty at Football Perspective, but Steve Smith’s combination of ranking 24th in ACY while his teams ranked 98th in pass-happiness and 77th in RANY/A is truly remarkable. Tim Brown (12th, 83rd, 64th), Brandon Marshall (26th, 85th, 89th), Steve Largent (8th, 60th, 82nd), James Lofton (22nd, 73rd, 91st), Michael Irvin (16th, 94th, 38th), Andre Johnson (9th, 56th, 80th), and Jimmy Smith (17th, 80th, 66th) all stand out as being very high in ACY in light of those other two metrics.
  • Jerry Rice ranks 14th in RANY/A. That’s obviously very good, but it doesn’t stand out quite as much as you might think, given the narrative you occasionally hear when folks play devil’s advocate and try to argue that Rice isn’t the greatest receiver ever (or at least since Hutson).

What do you think? What stands out to you on today’s list?

References

References
1 He’s also one of four players (as of 2013) who had 1,000-yard seasons with 5 different quarterbacks).
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