Increases in a Statistic In Seven Consecutive Years

April 19, 2014 Statgeekery

Interesting stat about LeBron James courtesy of Tim Reynolds: The Heat superstar has increased his field goal percentage in seven straight seasons. Take a look at his field goal percentage by season: Season Age Tm FG% 2003-04 19 CLE .417 2004-05 ★ 20 CLE .472 2005-06 ★ 21 CLE .480 2006-07 ★ 22 CLE .476 2007-08 ★ 23 CLE […]

Read the full article →

Youngest and Oldest Receiving Groups in 2013

April 17, 2014 Receiving

In January, I calculated the AV-adjusted age of every team in 2013. In February, I looked at the production-adjusted height for each team’s receivers. Today, we combine those two ideas, and see which teams had the youngest and oldest set of targets. To calculate the average receiving age of each team, I calculated a weighted […]

Read the full article →

The St. Louis Rams Are Hosting A Horrible Contest

April 16, 2014 Statgeekery

In case you haven’t heard, the St. Louis Rams are running a contest to predict the team’s 2014 schedule. lThe prize is $100,000, which sounds nice until you realize that to win, you must accurately predict not only the opponent each week, but the location and the exact day of the game. Nobody is going to […]

Read the full article →

Analyzing Position Values in the NFL

April 13, 2014 Draft

Every draft pick has a value, as seen in my draft value chart.  When the first overall pick is used on a quarterback, that means the quarterback position gets credited with 34.6 picks. If you assign a value to every pick in each of the last ten drafts, you can get a sense of the […]

Read the full article →

Wide Receivers and Weighted Team Pass Attempts

April 10, 2014 Receiving

In his seven-year career, Calvin Johnson has already recorded 9,328 receiving yards. And for those curious about these sorts of things, he’s the career leader in receiving yards per game at 88.0, too. But Johnson has also benefited greatly from playing on teams that have thrown a weighted average of 635 pass attempts per season. […]

Read the full article →

What Does Chris Johnson Have Left?

April 8, 2014 Statgeekery

After six seasons in Tennessee, Chris Johnson is now a free agent. The star running back has had an up-and-down career. The successes are easy to document: since 2008, only Adrian Peterson has more rushing yards, and Johnson has rushed for 1,299 more yards than the next closest back, Matt Forte. Johnson was just 32 […]

Read the full article →

The Best Kickoff Returners in NFL History

April 2, 2014 History

Two weeks ago, I looked at the best punt returners in NFL history; today, a look at the top kickoff returners. Again, we begin with a graph of the league average yards per kickoff return from 1941 through 2013. The variation here has been relatively minor, falling in a 5-yard window from 18.9 yards per […]

Read the full article →

The 2013 Cleveland Browns Had the Strangest Season

March 30, 2014 SRS

Okay, that title could be the opener to any number of jokes. But I mean “strange season” in the way Football Perspective has used the phrase before. Take a look at Cleveland’s schedule and results from 2013: Score Week Day Date Rec Opp Tm Opp 1 Sun September 8 boxscore L 0-1 Miami Dolphins 10 […]

Read the full article →

How will DeSean Jackson age?

March 25, 2014 History

If you believe the rumors, the Eagles are desperately trying to trade wide receiver DeSean Jackson; absent an eligible suitor, and Philadelphia may even cut the three-time Pro Bowler. This is a pretty weird situation; what’s even weirder is how few tangible reasons have been given as to why the Eagles desire to remove him […]

Read the full article →

Expected Quarterbacks Wins Based On Passing Efficiency

March 24, 2014 Quarterbacks

On Friday, the Jets released Mark Sanchez. I don’t have much in the way of a post mortem, but it felt odd not to have at least some post on the subject. And despite watching every Sanchez start for four years, it still takes me by surprise when I see that his career record is […]

Read the full article →

Meaningless receiving yards

March 21, 2014 Receiving

Which player led the league in meaningless receiving yards last year? Wait, what are meaningless receiving yards? I am defining a meaningless receiving yard as one where: On third or fourth down, a player gained fewer yards than necessary for the first down. The receiving yard(s) came in a loss and when the player’s team […]

Read the full article →

Checkdowns: Judging QBs By Their Top 5 Seasons

March 19, 2014 Quarterbacks

While working on a different post, I needed to derive a quick-and-dirty formula to identify the top 100 or so quarterbacks in NFL history. Here is how I went about doing that: 1) Calculate the Relative ANY/A of each quarterback in every season since 1950. ANY/A, of course, is Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt, defined […]

Read the full article →

The Best Punt Returners in NFL History

March 17, 2014 History

Six years ago, I wrote a series of posts looking at the best returners in NFL history. Today, I want to update that list by examining the best punt returners in NFL history. As with most statistics, yards per punt return has fluctuated throughout most of NFL history. The graph below shows the average in […]

Read the full article →

Homer Jones Is the Leader in Average Length of Receiving Touchdown

March 16, 2014 History

In November, I noted that Chris Johnson was the career leader in average length of rushing touchdown. Since then, he’s actually dropped to number two, as his six rushing touchdowns covered “only” 84 yards in November and December. But what about the career leader in average length of receiving touchdown? That title belongs to former […]

Read the full article →

How Bad Was Ray Rice in 2013?

March 15, 2014 Rushing

The 2013 season was a disaster for Ray Rice, and 2014 isn’t off to a very good start, either. Last season, Rice carried 214 times for just 660 yards and four touchdowns, producing an anemic 3.1 yards per carry average. On November 9th, I asked whether Rice was already washed up; at the time it […]

Read the full article →

Rams/Colts Was the Least-Conforming Game of 2013

March 7, 2014 SRS

In week 10 of the 2013 season, the Rams traveled to Indianapolis. By the end of the season, St. Louis had an SRS grade of +2.2, meaning they were 2.2 points better than average. The Colts finished 2013 with an SRS grade of +4.1; if you award three points for home field, we would expect […]

Read the full article →

Antonio Brown led the NFL in True Receiving Yards in 2013

February 24, 2014 Receiving

Wide receiver is a notoriously difficult position to analyze using statistics. Era adjustments are arguably more important here than at any other position, but even within the same season it is not easy to compare wide receivers. Most people, myself included, would probably say that Josh Gordon or Calvin Johnson was the best wide receiver […]

Read the full article →

The Contrasting Statistical Profiles of Geno Smith and Mike Glennon

February 17, 2014 Passing

We were very spoiled last year. Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, and Russell Wilson had outstanding rookie seasons in 2012, and perhaps that set expectations a bit high for the 2013 class. No one will confuse those three with EJ Manuel, Geno Smith, and Mike Glennon, all of whom struggled for most of their rookie […]

Read the full article →

Adrian Peterson’s 2012 Season Lacked Some Juice

February 14, 2014 Rushing

When I went on the Advanced NFL Stats Podcast in late December, I discussed my use of Z-scores to measure the Seattle pass defense. Host Dave Collins asked me if I was planning on using Z-scores to measure other things, like say, Adrian Peterson’s 2012 season. I told him that would be an interesting idea […]

Read the full article →

Pythagenpat Records in 2013

February 11, 2014 Statgeekery

For years, sports analysts have used Pythagorean records as more granular measure of team strength than pure record. We’re not exactly at the point where Pythagorean records are mainstream, but I think, at least with respect to readers of this blog, people are pretty comfortable using Pythagorean records. For the uninitiated, the use of Pythagorean […]

Read the full article →

The Best Scoring Offenses Since 1932

February 6, 2014 History

On Monday, I looked at the greatest defenses — measured simply by points allowed and adjusted for strength of schedule — in NFL history. Today, I want to look at which offenses were the greatest in regular season history, and see where the 2013 Broncos stack up. As noted in the post on defenses, during […]

Read the full article →

2013 AV-Adjusted Team Age

January 30, 2014 Statgeekery

In each of the last two years, I’ve presented the AV-adjusted age of each roster in the NFL. Measuring team age in the NFL is tricky. You don’t want to calculate the average age of a 53-man roster and call that the “team age” because the age of a team’s starters is much more relevant […]

Read the full article →

The Best Playoff Quarterbacks In The Super Bowl Era

January 28, 2014 Passing

On Friday, I explained the idea behind Playoff Leverage. That post is required reading before diving in today, but the summary is that the Super Bowl counts for more than the conference championship games, which count for more than the division round games, which count for more than the wild card games. The value that […]

Read the full article →

Super Bowl XLVIII: The Greatest Passing Showdown Ever

January 27, 2014 History

Regular readers know I’m not prone to exaggeration. I’m more of a splits happen kind of guy. But Super Bowl XLVIII will, in my opinion, be the greatest passing showdown ever. This year’s Super Bowl checks in as the greatest offensive/defensive showdown in Super Bowl history (and the greatest of any game, regular or postseason, […]

Read the full article →

Are Teams Afraid To Pass Against Seattle?

January 26, 2014 History

We know that the Seahawks pass defense is historically good, but the title of this post sounds like it was written by a Seahawks homer, right? I mean, who else besides a green-and-blue fanboy (or maybe Richard Sherman or Earl Thomas) would write something as absurd as “Seattle’s pass defense is so good that teams […]

Read the full article →

Super Bowl Leverage And the Best Postseason Passers Since 1966

January 24, 2014 G.O.A.T.

Even for Football Perspective, this is a very math-heavy post. I’ve explained all the dirty work and fine details behind this system, but if you want to skip to the results section, I’ll understand. Heck, it might even make more sense to start there and then work your way back to the top. Background In […]

Read the full article →

Marvin Harrison Should Be A First-Ballot Hall of Famer

January 14, 2014 HOF

In a couple of weeks, the newest class of the Pro Football Hall of Fame will be announced. Only five modern-era wide receivers have been selected enshrinement on their first ballot: Jerry Rice, Paul Warfield, Steve Largent, Raymond Berry, and Lance Alworth. This year, in his first year of eligibility, Marvin Harrison is one of […]

Read the full article →

Division Preview: Indianapolis at New England

January 10, 2014 Current Events

When it comes Patriots/Colts, it’s easy to want to focus on Tom Brady vs. Andrew Luck. Or to marvel at the sheer number of star players these teams have lost in the last 12 months. If you played college in the state of Florida, you’re probably not going to be playing in this game: T.Y. […]

Read the full article →

Guest Post: Projecting Pass/Run Ratios in Division Round

January 9, 2014 Playoffs

Steve Buzzard has agreed to write another guest post for us. And I think it’s a very good one. Steve is a lifelong Colts fan and long time fantasy football aficionado. He spends most of his free time applying advanced statistical techniques to football to better understand the game he loves and improve his prediction […]

Read the full article →

Putting the 2013 Seahawks Pass Defense in Perspective

January 7, 2014 Defense

After 15 weeks, I wrote that Seattle’s pass defense looked to be one of the most dominant since the merger. With the regular season now over, and the Seahawks getting ready for their first playoff game, I wanted to revisit this question and slightly tweak the methodology. We begin with the base statistic to measure […]

Read the full article →