Guest Post: DVOA-Adjusted Pythagorean Expectation

August 27, 2014 Statgeekery

Just above these words, it says “posted by Chase.” And it was literally posted by Chase, but the words below the line belong to Bryan Frye, a longtime reader and commenter who has agreed to write this guest post for us. And I thank him for it. Bryan lives in Yorktown, Virginia, and operates his […]

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538: Are the Broncos or Seahawks More Immune From Regression?

August 20, 2014 Statgeekery

Over at Five Thirty Eight, I look at whether the Broncos pass offense, or the Seahawks pass defense, is more immune from regression to the mean.  As a general rule, elite offenses are further from league average than great defenses, so offensive regression isn’t as likely as defensive regression. It helps, too, that research has […]

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Predictions: Is it Too Early to Get Excited (Or Worried) About Rookie QBs?

August 18, 2014 History

The preseason is meaningless, right? Well, as it turns out, it might give us a window into quarterback development, despite what you might think. The threshold for whether the preseason is useful is whether including that information tells us anything about a quarterback’s potential that we don’t already know from his draft position (or perhaps […]

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Being Young Isn’t What it Used to Be: The Harder Road to an NFL Dynasty

August 4, 2014 History

In the Super Bowl era, there has been just one team that was both the youngest in the league and one of the five best teams in football: the 2012 Seattle Seahawks. As friend of Football Perspective Neil Paine recently pointed out, being young and great has historically been a good predictor of teams that […]

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James Lofton is the Yards Per Catch King

July 27, 2014 Receiving

Yesterday, we looked at which quarterbacks were the best at yards per completion after adjusting for league average. Today, we’ll do the same thing for wide receivers and yards per completion. A small tweak is necessary to the formula. You can skip down to the results section if you don’t care about the math, but […]

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Steve Grogan is the Yards Per Completion King

July 26, 2014 History

In 2013, the average completion went for 11.63 yards. That’s a pretty low number historically, although it’s actually a bit higher than some of the recent NFL seasons. Take a look at how Yards per Completion has generally been declining throughout NFL history: If you want to discuss the quarterbacks who excelled in this metric, […]

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The Top Quarterbacks And The Receivers They Threw It To

July 22, 2014 Receiving

Last week, I looked at the top receivers and the quarterbacks who threw it to them. Today, we flip that question around and look at which receivers the top quarterbacks threw to. I used the exact same methodology from the previous post, so please read that for the fine details. For Peyton Manning, 20% of […]

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The Best Adjusted Rushing Teams of All Time

July 18, 2014 Rushing

A couple of weeks ago, I posted a list of the best rushing teams in 2013 using Adjusted Yards per Carry. That metric, you may recall, is calculated as follows: Rushing Yards + 20*RushingTDs + 9*RushingFirstDowns We can use the same formula to grade every team across history. To account for era and quantity (having […]

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The Rashard Mendenhall/Andre Ellington Time Share Part II

July 17, 2014 History

In November, I wrote about the unique running back by committee taking place in Arizona. At the time, Rashard Mendenhall was averaging 3.1 yards per carry, while backup Andre Ellington was averaging 7.2 yards per rush on 54 carries. I thought it would be fun to revisit the Ellington/Mendenhall time share now that the season […]

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The Top Receivers And The Men Who Threw It To Them II

July 14, 2014 Quarterbacks

One of my first posts at Football Perspective was one of my favorites: the top receivers and the men who threw it to them. I like referencing that post from time to time, so I decided to update the numbers through the 2013 season. I looked at all regular season games since 19601, and calculated […]

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Examining the variation in rushing throughout NFL history

July 8, 2014 Rushing

There is no doubt that in modern times, passing is king. But until pretty recently, we were at the peak level in NFL history with respect to individual rushing performance. On the team level, rushing production ebbed and flows, with high points in the late ’40s, mid-’50s, and mid-’70s, but on the individual level, the […]

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Best AV-Weighted Winning Percentages of Defensive Players and Hall of Famers

July 4, 2014 History

Yesterday, I looked at the best AV-weighted winning percentages of offensive players. Today, we examine the same numbers but for defensive players and kickers since 1960. Again, players who entered the league prior to 1960 are included, but for purposes of this study, only their 1960+ seasons count (assuming they produced at least 50 points […]

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Best AV-Weighted Winning Percentages of Offensive Players

July 3, 2014 History

Yesterday, I looked at the weighted career winning percentages for running backs, with the weight being based on each player’s yards from scrimmage in each season of his career. Today, I want to do the same thing but for all offensive players, using PFR’s Approximate Value ratings. By this methodology, Dan Koppen has the highest […]

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Thoughts on the value of a rushing first down

July 1, 2014 Statgeekery

Last week, Brian Burke provided some excellent data on the value of a first down. I began working on today’s post last offseason, but as you’ll see in a few minutes, I wasn’t quite comfortable with the results. But here’s what I did. For all teams from 1989 to 2012, I recorded for each team’s […]

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The Value of a First Down

June 25, 2014 Statgeekery

What is the value of a first down? By that I mean, how many marginal yards is a first down actually worth? Here’s another way to word the question: If 3 first downs and 80 yards are worth X, then 2 first downs and [???] many yards are equal to X? Calculating the marginal value […]

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The best and worst passing games of 2013

June 18, 2014 Passing

Yesterday, I analyzed the 2013 passing numbers for strength of schedule. Today, we look at the best and worst games of the year, from the perspectives of both the quarterbacks and the defenses. Let’s start with the top 100 passing games from 2014. The top spot belongs to Philadelphia’s Nick Foles, for his monstrous performance […]

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2013 Rearview Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt

June 17, 2014 Quarterbacks

Every year at Footballguys.com, I publish an article called Rearview QB, which adjusts the fantasy football statistics for quarterbacks (and defenses) for strength of schedule. I’ve also done the same thing for years (including last season) using ANY/A instead of fantasy points, which helps us fully understand the best and worst real life performances each […]

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The Greatest QB of All-Time V, Part III: Adjusted Dropbacks

June 13, 2014 Quarterbacks

The comments to Parts I and II of this series have been great, so let me start with a thank you. One of the more difficult parts of this process is comparing players across eras not just for efficiency, but for gross volume. In 2013, teams averaged 38.0 pass attempts (including sacks) per game, compared […]

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The Greatest QB of All-Time V, Part II: Career Rankings

June 10, 2014 G.O.A.T.

Yesterday, I explained the methodology behind the formula involved in ranking every quarterback season since 1960. Today, I’m going to present the career results. Converting season value to career value isn’t as simple as it might seem. Generally, we don’t want a player who was very good for 12 years to rank ahead of a […]

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The Greatest QB of All-Time V, Part I (Methodology)

June 9, 2014 G.O.A.T.

In 2006, I took a stab at ranking every quarterback in NFL history. Two years later, I acquired more data and made enough improvements to merit publishing an updated and more accurate list of the best quarterbacks the league has ever seen. In 2009, I tweaked the formula again, and published a set of career […]

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Yards per Target Relative to Teammates

June 4, 2014 Receiving

Josh Gordon led the league with 1,646 receiving yards last year. That’s impressive: perhaps even more impressive is that he did it on “only” 159 targets, meaning he averaged 10.35 yards per target.1 But the most impressive part, of course, was that he did it for the Browns. You know, the Browns, quarterbacked by a […]

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Overvalued? College Teammates and the Biggest Mistakes in the NFL Draft, Part 2

June 3, 2014 Draft

Last week, I wrote about whether having great college teammates might cause quarterbacks and wide receivers to be overvalued in the NFL draft. The results were inconclusive on the impact of teammates on quarterbacks, but they indicated that wide receivers who played with first-round QBs in college tended to underperform in the NFL relative to […]

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Overvalued? College Teammates and the Biggest Mistakes in the NFL Draft

May 28, 2014 Draft

Do players get too much credit when teammates make them look good? Take Johnny Manziel. In the last thirty years, no quarterback has had teammates around him drafted so highly. Last year, his left tackle (Luke Joeckel) was the second pick in the draft. This year, his new left tackle (Jake Matthews) was the sixth […]

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How to Project Receiving Yards in 2014 (FBG)

May 24, 2014 Fantasy

Last year, at Footballguys.com, I looked at the best starting point for wide receiver projections. Well, I’ve re-run the numbers and come up with the best starting point for wide receiver projections in 2014. The general philosophy is that receiving yards can be re-written using the following formula: Receiving yards = (Receiving Yards/Target) x (Targets/Team_Pass_Att) […]

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The NFL Draft and the Wisdom of Crowds

May 13, 2014 Draft

[Chase note: Take a look at the name at the top of this post. Our good friend Andrew continues to desire to post here, and we thank him for that.] In 1906, Sir Francis Galton probably wasn’t thinking about the NFL draft when he asked almost 800 fair goers to guess the weight of an […]

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Increases in a Statistic In Seven Consecutive Years

April 19, 2014 Statgeekery

Interesting stat about LeBron James courtesy of Tim Reynolds: The Heat superstar has increased his field goal percentage in seven straight seasons. Take a look at his field goal percentage by season: Season Age Tm FG% 2003-04 19 CLE .417 2004-05 ★ 20 CLE .472 2005-06 ★ 21 CLE .480 2006-07 ★ 22 CLE .476 2007-08 ★ 23 CLE […]

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Youngest and Oldest Receiving Groups in 2013

April 17, 2014 Receiving

In January, I calculated the AV-adjusted age of every team in 2013. In February, I looked at the production-adjusted height for each team’s receivers. Today, we combine those two ideas, and see which teams had the youngest and oldest set of targets. To calculate the average receiving age of each team, I calculated a weighted […]

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The St. Louis Rams Are Hosting A Horrible Contest

April 16, 2014 Statgeekery

In case you haven’t heard, the St. Louis Rams are running a contest to predict the team’s 2014 schedule. lThe prize is $100,000, which sounds nice until you realize that to win, you must accurately predict not only the opponent each week, but the location and the exact day of the game. Nobody is going to […]

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Analyzing Position Values in the NFL

April 13, 2014 Draft

Every draft pick has a value, as seen in my draft value chart.  When the first overall pick is used on a quarterback, that means the quarterback position gets credited with 34.6 picks. If you assign a value to every pick in each of the last ten drafts, you can get a sense of the […]

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Wide Receivers and Weighted Team Pass Attempts

April 10, 2014 Receiving

In his seven-year career, Calvin Johnson has already recorded 9,328 receiving yards. And for those curious about these sorts of things, he’s the career leader in receiving yards per game at 88.0, too. But Johnson has also benefited greatly from playing on teams that have thrown a weighted average of 635 pass attempts per season. […]

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