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Week 2 (2020) Passing Stats: Kirk Reaches A New Low

Previously:

Kirk Cousins had a very bad day on Sunday. He averaged -1.38 ANY/A against the Colts, an unspeakably bad performance from an above-average quarterback most weeks. Since 2010, there have been just 22 other times where a quarterback finished with below -1.00 ANY/A, and most of those quarterbacks were very bad.

It was bad on all fronts. He threw 3 interceptions and took 3 sacks, so there were plenty of negative plays. He also threw for only five first downs. His completion percentage was bad, too, and he only averaged 10 yards per completion. The passing offense gained just 95 net yards, and obviously negative adjusted net yards.

How bad was it? Carson Wentz was a disaster on Sunday, throwing for only 242 yards on 43 pass attempts, with 0 TDs, 2 INTs, and only 13 first downs. But in terms of passing value added relative to average, Cousins’s performance was twice as bad as Wentz’s was.

How bad was it? The Vikings finished with a passer rating of 13.0. The last time a team won with a passer rating under 15.0 and their opponent did not have a passer rating under 15.0, was way back in 2008, when the Panthers and Jake Delhomme threw 4 INTs but still beat the Andrew Walter-led Oakland Raiders. If you are wondering why that previous sentence had to be so clunky, it’s because yes there was in fact a game where both teams had passer ratings under 15.0 in recent memory: a 2010 disaster of a game featuring Todd Collins, Matt Moore, and Jimmy Clausen.

On the plus side, we have Bills quarterback Josh Allen, who had the best passing game of his career in week two. The 2018 first round pick finally had his first 300-yard game in week 1 of the 2020 season, and promptly followed that up with his first 400-yard game on Sunday. The 2020 season represents just 6.7% of Allen’s career games played to date, but 12.3% of his career passing yards. Allen became just the 20th player to throw for 400+ yards and have a passer rating of 145.0+ in NFL history; of course, just one of those games came before 1984, with the majority coming in the last ten years.

Below are the full week 2 passing stats. As a reminder, the new formula to calculate Adjusted Yards per Dropback is (Passing Yards + 9 * Pass 1st Downs + 11 * Pass TDs – 45 * INTs – 50 * Fumbles Lost) divided by (Pass Attempts + Sacks). In week 2, the average was 9.37, slightly up from 9.20 in week 1. So for each passer, we multiply his number of dropbacks by the difference between his AdjYd/DB average and 9.37 to create a passing value.

RkPasserTeamOppResultAttYdTDINT1DSkYdFLAdjY/DBDBVALUE
1Josh AllenBUFMIAW 31-2835417401514016.4436255
2Jared GoffLARPHIW 37-1927267301719015.8628182
3Ryan TannehillTENJAXW 33-3024239401218015.3225149
4Cam NewtonNWESEAL 30-3544397112210012.4745139
5Dak PrescottDALATLW 40-3947450102015112.2148136
6Russell WilsonSEANWEW 35-30282885111213012.8030103
7Matt RyanATLDALL 39-4036273401516012.053799
8Aaron RodgersGNBDETW 42-21302402013111011.873178
9Drew BreesNORLVRL 24-3438312111700011.343875
10Jimmy GaroppoloSFONYJW 31-131613120918013.291767
11Baker MayfieldCLECINW 35-302321921900012.042361
12Justin HerbertLACKANL 20-23333111114215011.093560
13Ryan FitzpatrickMIABUFL 28-31473282020317010.265044
14Lamar JacksonBALHOUW 33-16242041011427010.252825
15Derek CarrLVRNORW 34-2438282301832319.854120
16Ben RoethlisbergerPITDENW 26-2141311211511009.834219
17Philip RiversINDMINW 28-1125214111021109.59276
18Gardner Minshew IIJAXTENL 30-3345339322022409.3247-2
19Patrick MahomesKANLACW 23-2047302201511309.2948-4
20Russell GageATLDALL 39-40100000000.001-9
20Andy DaltonDALATLW 40-39100000000.001-9
20Chris JonesDALATLW 40-39100000000.001-9
23Deshaun WatsonHOUBALL 16-3336275111542208.8540-21
24Kyler MurrayARIWASW 30-153828611133808.8041-23
25Sam DarnoldNYJSFOL 13-313217910101608.3033-35
26Matthew StaffordDETGNBL 21-4233244211042607.7037-62
27Teddy BridgewaterCARTAML 17-3142367021852717.7047-78
28Drew LockDENPITL 21-26520001181-4.836-85
29Nick MullensSFONYJW 31-13117101321702.7713-86
30Jeff DriskelDENPITL 21-2634256211165306.9840-96
31Tom BradyTAMCARW 31-173521711110016.6335-96
32Dwayne HaskinsWASARIL 15-3033223101042416.7637-97
33Mitchell TrubiskyCHINYGW 17-1328190221142106.2532-100
34Carson WentzPHILARL 19-374324202130006.2643-134
35Joe BurrowCINCLEL 30-3561316302033117.0064-152
36Daniel JonesNYGCHIL 13-1740241011542115.9144-152
37Kirk CousinsMININDL 11-282611303531800.1729-267

Jared Goff had an outstanding day as well, particularly when it comes to picking up first downs. He threw for a first down on a league-high 61% of his dropbacks in a win over the Eagles. He helped the Rams produce the biggest differential in adjusted yards per dropback in week 2.

It is, of course, weird seeing the Chiefs on the losing end of the passing battle, but Patrick Mahomes was not his usual self on Sunday. Kansas City actually had the slightly less efficient passing game, but escaped with a win against the Chargers for a few reasons: (1) Harrison Butker kicked two 58-yard field goals, (2) the Chiefs stole a drive, finishing with 9 in regulation to just 8 for Los Angeles, and (3) better situational decision making.

You also might be surprised (I was!) to see that Drew Brees finished with a better rating than Derek Carr, despite Carr and the Raiders looking better on Monday night. Well, there are two explanations. One is that this fumble by the Raiders was attributed to Derek Carr, and it really shouldn’t impact how he was viewed as a passer. That said, my formula penalizes Carr as if that was a normal quarterback fumble, and it brings him and Brees even on the day in turnovers. The other is that Carr took three more sacks than Brees and finished with 53 fewer net yards on 3 additional dropbacks. That is a big difference to overcome, and his two additional passing touchdowns are not enough to do so. Brees also got the overwhelming majority of his yards due to YAC, which made his game feel less impressive. He averaged just 3.8 yards per completion through the air and 8.2 yards of YAC per completion, highlighted by 94 yards of YAC for Alvin Kamara.

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