538: NFC West Preview Articles

August 26, 2014 Announcements

Yesterday, Neil Paine previewed the NFC East teams over at FiveThirtyEight. Today, yours truly is up with a look at the NFC West. The Cardinals won 10 games last year, only the second time the team reached double digits in victories since moving to Arizona in 1988. Their run defense was the key. The Cardinals […]

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The AP’s All-Pro Voting Process Is a Joke

February 11, 2014 Checkdowns

In early January, the Associated Press announced its All-Pro team. The voting process is pretty simple: 50 voters select their top players at each position, and a first-team All-Pro squad is announced.  The runners-up at each position are placed on the second-team, but that leads to some very odd results. If fans, teams, and Hall […]

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Super Bowl Squares: How To Win During Super Bowl XLVIII

January 29, 2014 Checkdowns

Last year, I wrote an article about Super Bowl squares. Well, it’s that time of year again, so here’s your helpful cheat sheet to win at your Super Bowl party. Every Super Bowl squares pool is different, but this post is really aimed at readers who play in pools where you can trade or pick […]

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Checkdowns: Pro-Football-Reference.com releases 2013 AV

January 6, 2014 Checkdowns

It’s Christmas in January. Again. Thanks to the tireless work of Mike Kania and the P-F-R staff, PFR has now generated the Approximate Values for every player in the NFL this year. For the uninitiated, you can review how AV is calculated here. And if you’re so inclined, you can thank Mike or PFR on […]

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Checkdowns: Division Round Results From 1990-2012

January 5, 2014 Checkdowns

The table below shows the results of every game in the division round of the playoffs from 1990 to 2012. Each game is displayed from the perspective of the home team. For example, last year, Denver hosted Baltimore in the second round of the playoffs, and you can click on the Boxscore link to see […]

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2013 Team NY/A and ANY/A Differential Data

December 30, 2013 Checkdowns

Just a quick data dump here for those inquiring minds. Here are the leaders in NY/A differential, which is simply Net Yards per Attempt (which incorporates sack data) for each team minus the Net Yards per Attempt allowed by that team. Seattle ranks #1 in NY/A differential, as Russell Wilson‘s offense has averaged 6.97 NY/A […]

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Checkdowns: London Fletcher’s Last Stand (NYT)

December 28, 2013 Checkdowns

A special bonus article this week at the New York Times, as I took a look at the incredible career of London Fletcher. On Sunday, Fletcher, a Washington captain, will play in his 256th straight game, the third-longest streak in N.F.L. history for a player who was not a kicker, behind only Brett Favre’s 299 […]

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2013 Pro Bowlers announced

December 27, 2013 Announcements

This year, the NFL has eliminated the AFC/NFC distinction, and just selected Pro Bowlers at each position. The results: Quarterback: Tom Brady, Patriots; Drew Brees, Saints; Peyton Manning, Broncos; Cam Newton, Panthers; Philip Rivers, Chargers; Russell Wilson, Seahawks. No surprises here. With a full season, Nick Foles and Aaron Rodgers would have made this a […]

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The Patriots are 10-3 But Just 6-7 Against the Spread

December 13, 2013 Checkdowns

If you look at the Patriots’ PFR page, you’ll see that the Patriots are a 10-3team that’s played like an 8-5 team that has a 6-7 record against the spread. I wondered how often a team with such a good record was below average against the spread. The answer: pretty frequently. Which I suppose isn’t […]

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Ravens-Vikings Set Record with 6 TD Lead Changes in 4th Quarter

December 8, 2013 Checkdowns

I don’t know if any of us have ever seen a game quite like the end of Baltimore-Minnesota. With 2:05 left in the game, Baltimore faced 4th-and-goal from the Vikings 1-yard line. The Ravens trailed 12-7. In what looked to be the game-winner, Joe Flacco hit Dennis Pitta for a touchdown pass. A two-point conversion […]

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Checkdowns: Tale of a Tailspin Graphic (NYT)

December 7, 2013 Checkdowns

I contributed to this New York Times graphic regarding the Jets struggles. Tweet

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Josh Gordon sets two-game receiving record

December 1, 2013 Checkdowns

Cleveland’s Josh Gordon caught 14 passes for 237 yards and a touchdown against the Steelers last week. Against the Jaguars this afternoon, Gordon caught 10 passes for 261 yards and two scores. In the process, he became the first player to ever record back-to-back 200+ yard receiving games, and set an NFL record with 498 […]

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Checkdowns: The Complete History of Brady-Manning Matchups

November 25, 2013 Checkdowns

Presented below, without comment, is a table of every matchup featuring Tom Brady & Peyton Manning as the starting quarterbacks. Enjoy: Tweet

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Checkdowns: Worst. Monday Night Football Matchup. Ever. (By combined winning percentage)

October 21, 2013 Checkdowns

(I originally posted this at the S-R Blog, but I thought it would be very appropriate here as well.) Just a quick hit of a post to let you know that tonight’s MNF matchup between the 0-6 Giants and the 1-4 Vikings is, in fact, the worst ever this late in the season by combined […]

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True Receiving Yards (v2.0) Extended Back to 1950

September 19, 2013 Checkdowns

About a month ago, Chase & I developed a stat called True Receiving Yards, which seeks to put all modern & historical receiving seasons on equal footing by adjusting for the league’s passing YPG environment & schedule length, plus the amount the player’s team passed (it’s easier to produce raw receiving stats on a team […]

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Matt Ryan has most wins through five years, ranks 7th in Winning Percentage

July 28, 2013 Checkdowns

An interesting tweet from Adam Schefter today: Matt Ryan has 56 regular season wins in his first five seasons, the most in NFL history. Ryan has started 78 games, one of only three quarterbacks (Peyton Manning, Joe Flacco) to start at least 75 games in their first five seasons. I thought it would be interesting […]

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Cross-Post: Help Wanted! Help P-F-R Identify Historical Teams’ Offensive & Defensive Schemes

July 18, 2013 Bleg

(I originally posted this at the S-R Blog, but I thought it would be very appropriate here as well.) Here is a google doc containing every team-season in our database since 1957, including the Head Coach and offensive & defensive coordinators. It also specifies those coaches’ preferred offensive or defensive schemes (depending on which side […]

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Wisdom of Crowds: Team Power Rankings (Elo-Style)

July 17, 2013 Announcements

Long-time commenter Richie has been kind enough to create an Elo Ranking System where users can rank each of the 32 teams in the NFL. He’s hosting it on his site, but has come up with a Football Perspective-sounding url for us: http://footballperspective.tooshay.us/teamrate.php You can read more about how Elo Rankings work here, but the […]

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Contest: Reports of the Demise of the New England Passing Game Are…

June 27, 2013 Checkdowns

On September 13, 2008, Doug Drinen wrote this post, which I reproduce in full below. I’m hearing and reading a lot of crazy stuff this week. So I just want to document my predictions that (a) the Patriots will win at least 11 games this year, (b) the Patriots will clinch the East before week […]

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Contest Results

June 23, 2013 Checkdowns

Last week Chase announced this contest in honor of Football Perspective’s first birthday. Here’s the backstory… A couple of years ago, I moved. The house I was moving into, like many houses, had walls. The walls did not have artwork pre-installed, so I spent a good six months of my life obsessed with finding good […]

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Football Perspective Says Thank You On Its First Birthday

June 15, 2013 Checkdowns

On June 15, 2012, I launched Football Perspective. Since that day, Football Perspective has posted a new article every single day. This the site’s 445th post, so I won’t blame you if you’ve missed an article here or there. At the top of every page is a link to the Historical Archive, a page that […]

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Longest streaks without a 100-yard rusher

May 4, 2013 Checkdowns

The Packers have gone 43 consecutive regular season games without having a 100-yard rusher. Not coincidentally, Green Bay drafted Alabama’s Eddie Lacy and UCLA’s Johnathan Franklin in the draft last weekend, hoping that one of those players can bolster the team’s rushing attack. Brandon Jackson rushed for 115 yards in an overtime loss against the […]

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Wallet-Sized Copy of the 2013 NFL Schedule

April 19, 2013 Checkdowns

I have created a wallet-sized color copy of the 2013 NFL Schedule, which you can download here: 2013 NFL SCHEDULE That Excel file also contains a full page color copy of the schedule, along with black and white wallet-sized and full page size schedules. On the wallet-sized photos, the line between weeks 8 and 9 […]

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Fourth Quarter/Overtime Game-Winning Passing Touchdowns

April 13, 2013 Checkdowns

Yesterday, I looked at the career leaders in 4th quarter (and overtime) game-winning touchdowns from scrimmage. Today I will do the same thing for passing touchdowns. As a reminder: tracking things like game-winning touchdowns is only interesting in a trivial sort way. I looked at all games, regular and postseason, in all leagues, from 1940 […]

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From the gut: My thoughts on AFC teams

April 7, 2013 Checkdowns

Yesterday, I talked about how optimistic I was about nearly every team in the NFC. On the other hand, most of the teams in the AFC are rebuilding, whether they know it or not. In fact, figuring out which team is the 3rd best team in the conference is much more challenging than it should […]

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From the gut: My thoughts on NFC teams

April 6, 2013 Checkdowns

It’s April, so most of these points will probably look silly in 9 months, but the NFC should be the class of the NFL in 2013. I think you can make a convincing case for practically every team in the NFC as a possible playoff contender, which means a lot of coaches in that conference […]

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More division wins than non-division wins

April 5, 2013 Checkdowns

The Rams finished with the best division record in the NFC West last year at 4-1-1, but St. Louis went only 3-7 in games against non-NFC West opponents. The Jaguars were 0-10 in non-division games last season, but beat both the Colts and Titans to finish 2-4 against the AFC South. Since the merger, three […]

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Are Pick Sixes becoming more common in college football, too?

March 31, 2013 Checkdowns

On Thursday, I looked at the increase in pick sixes per interception in the NFL. Brian Fremeau asked if that was also going on at the college level, so let’s take a look. In 2012, there were 159 pick sixes according to cfbstats.com, matching the number provided at Sports-Reference.com. That’s right in line with previous […]

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Checkdowns: Making the Super Bowl with three different teams

March 16, 2013 Checkdowns

With Anquan Boldin being traded to San Francisco, he’ll have the rare opportunity to win the Super Bowl in consecutive years with different teams. Here’s another bit of trivia: if Boldin makes it back to the Super Bowl, he’ll become just the 11th player to ever make Super Bowls with three different teams. (man, the […]

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Football Research Intern

March 14, 2013 Checkdowns

If you’re a reader of this site and in college, chances are this opportunity might interest you. An NFL team is looking for football research interns for the summer. There is a chance that the position could become full time after the summer if the candidate is outstanding. All interested candidates should send a resume […]

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