Previously:
In week two, the Jets were down starting running back Le’Veon Bell, and also starting wide receivers Denzel Mims and Jamison Crowder; Breshad Perriman, the other starting wide receiver, left early with an ankle injury. The three wideouts who led the team in snaps on Sunday were Chris Hogan, Braxton Berrios, and Josh Malone. So what would the Jets do — put the games in the hand of backup running back Frank Gore, or let Sam Darnold air it out with replacement level wide receivers?
The game got out of hand early… very early. The 49ers scored a touchdown on the first play from scrimmage and the game never was close; San Francisco finished with a +13.8 Game Script. And yet, remarkably, the Jets nearly finished the game with more runs than passes! On the final, meaningless drive, the Jets threw 5 passes and 1 run; before that, New York had 28 pass attempts and 28 runs on the day!
There are a few games every year where a team runs a lot while getting blown out, and it usually means the team gave up. It is certainly disheartening to see that in week two for a team that seems to be hoping it has a franchise quarterback and an alleged brilliant offensive coach, so the generous explanation is that the wide receiver injuries left the team without a choice. The bad news: the Jets top three wideouts are out again this week, and the passing attack will be trotting out the Hogan/Berrios/Malone trio.
Another team that spent a premium draft pick on a quarterback in 2018 also was very run-heavy in week 2: the Cleveland Browns. On Thursday Night Football, it wasn’t Baker Mayfield stealing the show, but Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. For the first time in five years, Cleveland ran on over 60% of their plays! Chubb and Hunt carried 32 times for 210 yards and 13 first downs. Mayfield was fine — efficient, even — but it was Chubb and Hunt (who also caught a touchdown pass) who stole the show.
The table below shows the week 2 Game Scripts.
| Team | H/R | Opp | Boxscore | PF | PA | Margin | Game Script | Pass | Run | P/R Ratio | Op_P | Op_R | Opp_P/R Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | WAS | Boxscore | 30 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 40 | 32 | 55.6% | 38 | 23 | 62.3% | |
| SFO | @ | NYJ | Boxscore | 31 | 13 | 18 | 13.8 | 30 | 29 | 50.8% | 33 | 29 | 53.2% |
| TAM | CAR | Boxscore | 31 | 17 | 14 | 11.6 | 35 | 22 | 61.4% | 47 | 24 | 66.2% | |
| IND | MIN | Boxscore | 28 | 11 | 17 | 8.9 | 27 | 40 | 40.3% | 29 | 18 | 61.7% | |
| LAR | @ | PHI | Boxscore | 37 | 19 | 18 | 8.8 | 28 | 39 | 41.8% | 43 | 26 | 62.3% |
| CHI | NYG | Boxscore | 17 | 13 | 4 | 8.8 | 32 | 32 | 50% | 44 | 18 | 71% | |
| BAL | @ | HOU | Boxscore | 33 | 16 | 17 | 8.5 | 28 | 37 | 43.1% | 40 | 17 | 70.2% |
| TEN | JAX | Boxscore | 33 | 30 | 3 | 7.7 | 25 | 34 | 42.4% | 47 | 27 | 63.5% | |
| PIT | DEN | Boxscore | 26 | 21 | 5 | 6.8 | 42 | 22 | 65.6% | 46 | 26 | 63.9% | |
| CLE | CIN | Boxscore | 35 | 30 | 5 | 6.6 | 23 | 35 | 39.7% | 64 | 24 | 72.7% | |
| GNB | DET | Boxscore | 42 | 21 | 21 | 5.4 | 30 | 35 | 46.2% | 37 | 21 | 63.8% | |
| BUF | @ | MIA | Boxscore | 31 | 28 | 3 | 3.9 | 37 | 23 | 61.7% | 49 | 23 | 68.1% |
| LVR | NOR | Boxscore | 34 | 24 | 10 | 0.4 | 41 | 35 | 53.9% | 38 | 19 | 66.7% | |
| SEA | NWE | Boxscore | 35 | 30 | 5 | 0.3 | 30 | 30 | 50% | 45 | 25 | 64.3% | |
| KAN | @ | LAC | Boxscore | 23 | 20 | 3 | -4.3 | 48 | 22 | 68.6% | 35 | 44 | 44.3% |
| DAL | ATL | Boxscore | 40 | 39 | 1 | -12 | 50 | 31 | 61.7% | 38 | 34 | 52.8% |
On the pass-heavy side of things, let’s go down to Florida. Tom Brady and the Bucs led by double digits at the end of each quarter in an easy win over Carolina. And despite that, Tampa Bay threw on over 60% of plays, making them one of the most pass-happy teams of the week. There were only four games that met those criteria last year, with Brady’s Patriots and Tampa Bay each with one. By way of comparison, Tampa Bay passed on over 60% of plays with a +11.6 Game Script, while Cleveland was under 40% with a +6.6% Game Script.
The Steelers were also in control for most of the week against Denver, and yet Ben Roethlisberger and the passing attack shouldered a heavy burden in week two. Pittsburgh led after every quarter, posting a +6.8 Game Script, and still passed on 65.6% of passes; that was easily the most of any team that won in week two and had a positive Game Script.
Finally, a word about the most shocking Game Script of the week: the Cowboys won with a -12.0 Game Script! That’s one of the largest negative Game Scripts of any winning team since we began tracking the measure here at FP. By way of comparison, in 28-3, New England had a Game Script of -11.8. A few notes.
- The Cowboys trailed 20-0 after the first quarter. Since 1980, teams have surprisingly won about 10% of games where they trailed by at least 20 points at the end of the first quarter. The most recent ones before Sunday include Brady’s Patriots against the Bills, a Philip Rivers/LaDainian Tomlinson masterpiece from 2006, and a Sage Rosenfels special from 2005 (also against the Bills).
- Atlanta led 29-10 at halftime. Perhaps more in line with what you would expect, teams have only won about 3.5% of games when trailing by more than 17 points at halftime; there were two games last year that also met this criteria.
- Dallas became only the 4th team since 1940 to trail by more than 17 points after each of the first two quarters and win. The first three games were the Rosenfels comeback against Buffalo, the Chargers 49-41 mentioned above, and this oddly inefficient (for a historic comeback) game from Jake Plummer and the Cardinals where the Eagles offense gained just 5 first downs on 9 drives in the final three quarters. The results of those drives, in order: fumble, punt, punt, field goal (on a 4-play, 0-yard drive after an interception), punt, punt, punt, punt, interception)
What stands out to you?