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2016 Postseason Game Scripts

With one massive exception, the 2016 playoffs were not very interesting. The home team usually won, the favorite usually won, and usually by a large margin. In 8 of 10 games (ignoring the neutral site Super Bowl), the home team was the favorite and won by 13+ points.

And the Game Scripts weren’t all that exciting, either. Most of the games weren’t Super Bowl, and there was just one comeback. Of course, it wasn’t just any comeback; it was perhaps the comeback. Take a look:

WkTeamH/ROppBoxscorePFPAMarginGame ScriptPassRunP/R RatioOp_POp_ROpp_P/R Ratio

From a pass/run ratio standpoint, the game that really stands out is Green Bay’s win over Dallas. The Packers led 21-3 and were ahead most of the game, but wound up with 46 dropbacks against just 17 carries. That turned out to be a winning formula for Aaron Rodgers and a Packers team that saw its running back depth chart decimated, but it’s also a pretty unusual one. To put it in perspective, the Patriots had the same pass/run ratio in the Super Bowl, a game with a completely different Game Script.

  • Adam

    What was the game script of the famous Bills / Oilers game? That’s the only playoff matchup I can think of where the winner might have a game script even deeper into the negative zone than SB51.

    • Richie

      I can’t find an online box score with the times of each of the scores in that game. So I just estimated the scores being evenly distributed throughout each quarter. Using that method, I come up with a game script of -9.2.

    • Ryan

      Maybe Colts / Chiefs from a few years ago could be in the same ballpark? My approximation has it close to -10.

      • Adam

        You’re right, didn’t even think of that game.

  • Four Touchdowns

    The Packers / Cowboys and Super Bowl games were legendary. Everything else was a snoozer.

  • Richie

    Chase, did you include the overtime while calculating the NE-Atl game script? I am getting -10.6 as a game script for the Super Bowl.

    • Yep – all Game Script scores include overtime.