Are Teams Afraid To Pass Against Seattle?

January 26, 2014 History

We know that the Seahawks pass defense is historically good, but the title of this post sounds like it was written by a Seahawks homer, right? I mean, who else besides a green-and-blue fanboy (or maybe Richard Sherman or Earl Thomas) would write something as absurd as “Seattle’s pass defense is so good that teams […]

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Guest Post: Projecting Pass/Run Ratios in Division Round

January 9, 2014 Playoffs

Steve Buzzard has agreed to write another guest post for us. And I think it’s a very good one. Steve is a lifelong Colts fan and long time fantasy football aficionado. He spends most of his free time applying advanced statistical techniques to football to better understand the game he loves and improve his prediction […]

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Final 2013 Game Scripts And Pass Identity Data

January 3, 2014 Current Events

Every week this season, I’ve written about the Game Scripts from the previous weekend. For new readers, the term Game Script is just shorthand for the average points differential for a team over every second of each game. You can check out the updated Game Scripts page, which shows the results of all 256 games […]

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Week 16 Game Scripts

December 27, 2013 Current Events

Week 16 saw some very large Game Scripts in some very important games. The Eagles-Bears showdown turned into a laugher, as Philadelphia posted the 3rd best Game Script of the season. The New England/Baltimore rivalry is famous for producing close games, but the Patriots embarrassed the Ravens on their home field. New England scored a […]

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Week 15 Game Scripts – The Real Cowboys Show Up

December 19, 2013 Current Events

Something just didn’t feel right. Here is what I wrote in last week’s column: Through 12 weeks, the Cowboys had the strongest pass identity in the NFL. Then, against the Raiders in week 13, the Cowboys were pretty run-heavy. And against the Bears in week 14, Dallas produced its best game of the season on […]

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Week 14 Game Scripts

December 12, 2013 Current Events

Last week, six teams won with a negative Game Script. During an unforgettable slate of 1PM games in week 14, four teams during that time slot won with a negative Game Script — and that doesn’t include the insane Ravens/Vikings game.  One of the teams to win with a negative Game Script was Miami, so […]

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Guest Post: Projecting Pass/Run Ratios in Week 14

December 8, 2013 Fantasy

Just above these words, it says “posted by Chase.” And it was literally posted by Chase, but the words below the line belong to Steve Buzzard, who has agreed to write this guest post for us. And I thank him for it. Steve is a lifelong Colts fan and long time fantasy football aficionado. He […]

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Week 13 Game Scripts

December 6, 2013 Current Events

For the second straight week, an NFC West team produced a monster game script. This week, it was Seattle dominating New Orleans and taking control of the NFC. The Seahawks can clinch homefield advantage throughout the playoffs by simply winning the team’s final two home games, and Seattle appears to be (again) getting hot just […]

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Week 12 Game Scripts and Update Pass Identity Ratings

November 27, 2013 Current Events

The game of the week 12 was obviously Brady/Manning XIV, and the Patriots comeback victory resulted in the second lowest Game Script by a winning team this year. Due to the big lead, Denver rushed 55% of the time, and Knowshon Moreno set NFL season-highs with 37 carries for 224 rushing yards. In regulation, the […]

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Week 11 Game Scripts and Average Field Position Data

November 22, 2013 Current Events

Last week brought us the most lopsided game of the year. The games were more competitive this week, with the largest Game Script belonging to Tampa Bay (yes, Tampa Bay) at 14.0. The Philadelphia-Washington game provides a good example of the information conveyed — and not conveyed — by Game Scripts. Philadelphia won by 8 […]

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Week 10 Game Scripts and Average Field Position Data

November 14, 2013 Current Events

We have a new leader in the clubhouse for most lopsided game of the season. The St. Louis Rams pulled off one of the biggest blowouts by a heavy underdog in league history in week ten, defeating the Colts in Indianapolis, 38-8. In the process, the Rams also held an average lead of 23.2 points, […]

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Week 9 Game Scripts and Average Field Position Data

November 7, 2013 Current Events

Week eight brough us the two biggest blowouts of the season; in week nine, we saw the third most dominant win of the year and the biggest comeback of the season. The first game involved Chip Kelly’s blitzkrieg offense. Nick Foles threw for seven touchdowns against the Raiders in one of the most lopsided (and […]

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Week 8 Game Scripts and Average Field Position Data

October 31, 2013 Current Events

The 2013 Game Scripts record was broken not once but twice in week eight. In an unsurprising turn, the 49ers obliterated the Jaguars in London 42-10, holding an average lead of 21.3 points, breaking the largest average margin previously held by… Seattle against Jacksonville. But it was the Bengals demolition of the Jets in Cincinnati […]

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Week 7 Game Scripts, and the Jets Ping-Pong Record

October 24, 2013 Statgeekery

After a week six in which no team won with a negative Game Script, only the Jets won with a negative Game Script in week seven, and that was in overtime. Only two quarterbacks led fourth-quarter comebacks this week: Robert Griffin III and Thaddeus Lewis. Three more quarterbacks — Andy Dalton, Ben Roethlisberger, and Geno […]

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Week 6 Game Scripts

October 17, 2013 Statgeekery

I’ve posted the Game Scripts data following every week this season, but week six was the first week that no team won with a negative Game Script. That includes New England: even though Tom Brady led a late comeback, finding Kenbrell Thompkins in the back of the end zone to pull out a last-second win, […]

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NFL Team Passing Identities Through Five Weeks

October 11, 2013 Coaches

I’ve been posting the Game Scripts numbers each week this season, and now have a full page dedicated to the results from every game at the top right of your screen. But the best use of Game Scripts is to adjust Pass ratios for teams to understand their true Passing Identity. Here’s how you do […]

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Week 5 Game Scripts and Average Field Position

October 10, 2013 Current Events

Every week this season, I’ve posted the Game Scripts and Average Field Position data from the prior week. For new readers, you can read the background and how to calculate Game Scripts here, but the Game Scripts number simply tells us the average points differential for a team throughout a game. There are 3600 seconds […]

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Week 4 Game Scripts and Average Field Position

October 1, 2013 Current Events

Every week, I’m posting the Game Scripts and Average Field Position data for each team. In an effort to get these up a bit quicker, I decided to get these numbers crunched before the Monday Night Game in the result – let me know if you like this method better than waiting until the end […]

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Week 3 Game Scripts and Average Field Position

September 26, 2013 Current Events

The 2013 season started with two weeks of extremely close games; week three brought on the blowouts. On Monday Night Football, Peyton Manning, Eric Decker, Wes Welker, Demaryius Thomas, and Julius Thomas decimated the Oakland Raiders, helping Denver jump out to a 27-7 halftime lead. Yet that comes in as only the fourth most lopsided […]

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Week 2 Game Scripts, Average Field Position, and Arizona Special Teams

September 20, 2013 Current Events

So far this season, one thing is obvious: the NFL scheduled Thursday night games every week for the express purpose of screwing with people who do data analysis. Even though week three has started, I’m not ready to close the door on week two, in which nearly every game was competitive into the fourth quarter. […]

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Week 1: NFL Game Scripts and Introducing Average Field Position

September 11, 2013 Current Events

Regular readers know all about Game Scripts, the term I’ve used to represent the average margin of lead or deficit over the course of every second of a game. Let’s use the Seahawks-Panthers game to explain how to calculate the Game Script score. Steven Hauschka’s field goal with 9:40 left in the second quarter was […]

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What can we learn from Game Scripts splits?

June 9, 2013 Statgeekery

When I ask a question in the title of a post, I usually have an answer. But not this time. From 2000 to 2012, 163 different quarterbacks started 16 games. I thought it might be interesting to check out their splits based on the Game Script of each game. I grouped each quarterback’s statistics in […]

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The Most Pass-Happy Coaches in NFL History

May 21, 2013 Coaches

Yesterday, I looked at the most pass-happy active head coaches and offensive coordinators in the NFL. If you’ve been a loyal reader of my previous posts on Game Scripts, you understand the methodology I’ve used today to grade each coaches. The quick summary is I’ve come up with the term “Game Scripts” to determine the […]

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Which coaches are the most pass happy?

May 20, 2013 Coaches

One reason I came up with the concept of Game Scripts was to identify the most pass-happy coaches. Remember, a team’s Game Script score is simply their average scoring differential over each second of every game. Last year, the Falcons were the most pass-happy team in the NFL after adjusting for Game Scripts; Atlanta had […]

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Tempo in the NFL

May 13, 2013 Statistics

It’s no secret that Bill Belichick’s Patriots ran an up-tempo offense last year: Tom Brady and crew ran 1,191 offensive plays in 2012, just eight shy of tying the record set by the Drew Bledsoe Patriots in 1994. With versatile players like Aaron Hernandez, Rob Gronkowski, and Danny Woodhead, New England was capable of running […]

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Time spent leading, tied, or trailing

May 12, 2013 Statistics

Earlier this week, I posted the Game Scripts for each team this season and in each game. After spending the time to calculate the Game Scripts — i.e., the average margin of lead or deficit over the course of every game — it involved minimal extra effort to measure the percentage of time each team […]

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Game Scripts: Average margin in every game last season

May 7, 2013 Statgeekery

Yesterday, I presented the average lead or deficit for each team in the NFL last year, a number I’ve called the “Game Script.” Teams that find themselves with big leads or in deep holes early in games tend to deviate from their game scripts. That’s why it’s important to put metrics like pass/run ratio in […]

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Game Scripts – The Best Teams of 2012

May 6, 2013 Statistics

Last year, I introduced the concepts of Game Scripts. There are 3600 seconds in every game: the Game Script is the average score over each of those 3600 seconds. For reference, you can check out this list of the top single-seasons of all-time. Did you know that the Patriots ranked 20th in pass/run ratio last […]

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Game Scripts, Part III – 2012 results

December 5, 2012 Statgeekery

Last week, I introduced the concept of Game Scripts in Part I and Part II of this series. The short explanation is that a team’s Game Script score is simply the average score during each second of every game. Today, we’re going to look at some data from the 2012 season, although I have not […]

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Game Scripts, Part II: Analyzing team seasons

November 27, 2012 Statistics

Yesterday, I rolled out Game Scripts, a way to measure the flow of every game since 1940. The sum of each team’s Game Script in each game can be used to give us an average Game Script score on the season. You might think that this number would be a good proxy for how dominant […]

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