Yesterday, we looked at the pass identities of each offense. Today, we will use the exact same methodology to examine NFL defenses. We would expect defenses to have less control over their pass identity than offenses, because of the obvious fact that it’s the offense that gets to choose whether to pass or run. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t some interesting outliers.
Let’s begin with the Houston Texans, who have a basically neutral team. The Texans blew out the Falcons by 21 points, but otherwise have been in all one-score games. In fact, despite a 5-3 record, the Texans actually have a slightly negative Game Script of -0.6. So you would think opposing teams would pass a normal amount against them. You would be wrong: Houston opponents have passed on 66% of all plays this year, the second-highest rate in the NFL behind only the Patriots (against whom opponents are forced to pass from the opening gun).
Why? Well, the Texans have a pretty bad pass defense and a pretty good run defense. Given that in general it’s smarter to pass than to run, and the Texans offense is pretty explosive, you can see why teams tend to pass against Houston. To particularly egregious examples: the Chiefs passed on 77% of plays, and the Chargers 74%, in their games against Houston. In both games, the Texans had a -2.4 Game Script. In both games, Houston trailed 10-0, but their opponents threw on 3 out of every 4 plays. That says a lot about the Texans secondary, and maybe also fear of the Houston offense.
Conversely, we have the San Francisco 49ers. Despite having the second best Game Script in the NFL and an undefeated 7-0 mark, teams have passed on only 60.1% of all plays against San Francisco this year (through 8 weeks, at least; this was written prior to the Thursday Night Game). Teams appear afraid of throwing against the 49ers, and it appears with good reason: the team’s pass defense has been dominant.
The graph below shows each pass defense this season. The X-axis shows Game Script, and the Y-Axis shows pass ratio by that team’s opponents. I have shaded the Texans and 49ers data points, along with the Jets. It’s not all that interesting because of how bad the Jets have been, but the Jets actually have the strongest pass identity of any defense this season, even more than Houston. More on them in a moment.
The table below shows the Z-Scores and pass identities for each defense this year, using the same methodology described yesterday. The Jets have a -8.9 Game Script, the second-worst in the NFL so far this season. And yet teams have passed on them at a near league-average rate, throwing on 57.3% of passes. Why is that? The Jets actually rank 2nd in yards per carry allowed, and have an average pass defense. The Jets also have the second worst sack rate in the NFL, so it’s not very risky for teams to keep calling passes against the Jets.
| Rk | Team | Game Script | Ratio | GS Z-Score | PR Z-score | GS Rk | PR Rk | Pass Identity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York Jets | -8.9 | 57.3% | -1.89 | -0.32 | 31 | 23 | 1.57 |
| 2 | Houston Texans | -0.6 | 65.9% | -0.13 | 1.32 | 20 | 2 | 1.44 |
| 3 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -0.9 | 64.8% | -0.19 | 1.11 | 21 | 6 | 1.30 |
| 4 | Philadelphia Eagles | -2.2 | 62.2% | -0.47 | 0.61 | 25 | 9 | 1.07 |
| 5 | Seattle Seahawks | 0.6 | 64.9% | 0.13 | 1.14 | 13 | 5 | 1.01 |
| 6 | Jacksonville Jaguars | -0.4 | 62.6% | -0.09 | 0.70 | 17 | 8 | 0.79 |
| 7 | New Orleans Saints | 3.1 | 65.5% | 0.66 | 1.24 | 7 | 4 | 0.58 |
| 8 | Tennessee Titans | -0.5 | 61.1% | -0.10 | 0.39 | 18 | 12 | 0.49 |
| 9 | Carolina Panthers | -0.6 | 60.5% | -0.12 | 0.29 | 19 | 14 | 0.41 |
| 10 | Indianapolis Colts | -0.2 | 60.6% | -0.05 | 0.31 | 14 | 13 | 0.36 |
| 11 | Arizona Cardinals | -2.4 | 58.2% | -0.50 | -0.16 | 26 | 22 | 0.35 |
| 12 | Baltimore Ravens | 4.9 | 65.8% | 1.05 | 1.30 | 4 | 3 | 0.25 |
| 13 | Chicago Bears | 1.9 | 62.1% | 0.41 | 0.60 | 11 | 10 | 0.19 |
| 14 | Oakland Raiders | -0.9 | 58.9% | -0.19 | -0.02 | 22 | 20 | 0.17 |
| 15 | Buffalo Bills | -0.3 | 59.3% | -0.07 | 0.05 | 15 | 17 | 0.12 |
| 16 | Atlanta Falcons | -7.9 | 50.9% | -1.68 | -1.56 | 30 | 29 | 0.12 |
| 17 | Dallas Cowboys | 2.6 | 62.1% | 0.55 | 0.59 | 9 | 11 | 0.03 |
| 18 | Minnesota Vikings | 5.1 | 63.7% | 1.08 | 0.90 | 3 | 7 | -0.18 |
| 19 | Washington Redskins | -4.5 | 53.1% | -0.95 | -1.14 | 27 | 27 | -0.19 |
| 20 | Miami Dolphins | -9.2 | 47.8% | -1.97 | -2.16 | 32 | 31 | -0.19 |
| 21 | New York Giants | -4.9 | 52.4% | -1.04 | -1.26 | 28 | 28 | -0.22 |
| 22 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 0.8 | 58.3% | 0.18 | -0.14 | 12 | 21 | -0.32 |
| 23 | Detroit Lions | 3.0 | 60.5% | 0.65 | 0.28 | 8 | 15 | -0.37 |
| 24 | Cleveland Browns | -2.1 | 54% | -0.44 | -0.95 | 24 | 26 | -0.51 |
| 25 | Los Angeles Rams | 2.4 | 58.9% | 0.52 | -0.01 | 10 | 19 | -0.53 |
| 26 | Denver Broncos | -0.4 | 55.8% | -0.08 | -0.61 | 16 | 25 | -0.53 |
| 27 | Cincinnati Bengals | -6.5 | 47.3% | -1.39 | -2.25 | 29 | 32 | -0.86 |
| 28 | Green Bay Packers | 4.8 | 59.2% | 1.02 | 0.03 | 5 | 18 | -0.99 |
| 29 | Los Angeles Chargers | -2.0 | 50.5% | -0.42 | -1.63 | 23 | 30 | -1.21 |
| 30 | New England Patriots | 13.1 | 67% | 2.80 | 1.54 | 1 | 1 | -1.26 |
| 31 | Kansas City Chiefs | 4.1 | 56.9% | 0.88 | -0.41 | 6 | 24 | -1.29 |
| 32 | San Francisco 49ers | 8.5 | 60.1% | 1.81 | 0.21 | 2 | 16 | -1.59 |
The Bucs are an interesting defense. Tampa Bay has the clear best rushing defense in the NFL, ranking 1st in yards per game, yards per carry, and first downs per carry through 8 weeks. But the pass defense, as usual in Tampa Bay, is bad. So I’m not surprised to see them join the Jets and Texans as the three defenses teams are most likely to attack through the air, after adjusting for Game Script. It’s nice when the data confirms what I’ve been thinking.
What stands out to you?