The graph below shows the Game Script (X-Axis) and Pass Ratio (Y-Axis) for every game this season. For new readers, a team’s Game Script is simply its average margin of lead (or deficit) over every second of a game. Pass ratio is simply passing plays (pass attempts plus sacks) divided by all offensive plays (pass attempts + sacks + rushing attempts).
As you can see, there’s a clear relationship between the two variables: on average, the better the Game Script, the lower the Pass Ratio.
We can also create season ratings of Game Scripts and Pass Ratios for each team. Let’s use the Patriots and Eagles as examples.
New England has had an average Game Script across its 8 games of +13.1. This year, New England’s pass ratio in those 8 games is 58.2%. Philadelphia has had an average Game Script of -2.2, and a pass ratio of 55.0%. It might strike you as odd to see that New England has a higher pass ratio — i.e., it’s passed more frequently — than Philadelphia. It should! That’s because New England has the strongest passing identity in the NFL, while the Eagles have the strongest rushing identity in the NFL.
The Patriots have, by far, the best average Game Script this season; all else being equal, you might expect New England to therefore have the lowest pass ratio in the NFL. Instead, the team is barely below average, ranking 19th in percentage of passing plays. Philadelphia has the 25th-best Game Script this year, as the Eagles had a -4.4 Game Script against Atlanta, a -4.9 GS against Detroit, a -9.9 vs. Minnesota and a -14.8 against Dallas. And yet the Eagles have just the 25th-best highest passing ratio in the league! That’s very run-heavy, as noted yesterday.
The graph below shows the Game Script (X-Axis) and Pass Ratio (Y-Axis) of each offense this season. I have shaded in team colors the Patriots and Eagles data points:
We can use Z-scores, which measure how many standard deviations from average a metric is, to create pass identities for each team. Philadelphia’s -2.2 Game Script is 0.47 standard deviations below average, while its 55% pass ratio is 0.62 standard deviations below average. We sum those two numbers to create a Pass Identity score, and Philadelphia has the lowest Pass Identity in the NFL at -1.09. The Jets, Seahawks, Colts, Raiders, Vikings, and 49ers grade out as the most run-heavy teams this season after adjusting for Game Script, and that certainly jives with the eye test. The goal in creating Pass Identity scores is not to surprise you, but to quantify what we already know.
Meanwhile, New England’s +13.1 Game Script average is a whopping 2.80 standard deviations above average, while it’s 58.2% pass ratio is only 0.12 standard deviations below average. Add those numbers together, and the Patriots have a Pass Identity of +2.68, the strongest in the NFL. New England is followed by the Chiefs, who rank 6th in both Game Script (usually playing with a lead) and Pass Ratio (64.4%). That makes a team appear to have a very strong pass identity, and Kansas City is followed by the Packers, Bears, and Rams in this regard. I think the eye test would agree that all five of these teams have been very pass-heavy this season, given their Game Scripts.
The full data set, below.
| Rk | Team | Game Script | Ratio | GS Z-Score | PR Z-score | GS Rk | PR Rk | Pass Identity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New England Patriots | 13.1 | 58.2% | 2.80 | -0.12 | 1 | 19 | 2.68 |
| 2 | Kansas City Chiefs | 4.1 | 64.4% | 0.88 | 0.86 | 6 | 6 | 1.74 |
| 3 | Green Bay Packers | 4.8 | 59.3% | 1.02 | 0.06 | 5 | 15 | 1.08 |
| 4 | Chicago Bears | 1.9 | 62.9% | 0.41 | 0.63 | 11 | 8 | 1.04 |
| 5 | Los Angeles Rams | 2.4 | 62.1% | 0.52 | 0.50 | 10 | 10 | 1.02 |
| 6 | Los Angeles Chargers | -2.0 | 66.7% | -0.42 | 1.23 | 23 | 4 | 0.80 |
| 7 | New Orleans Saints | 3.1 | 58.5% | 0.66 | -0.06 | 7 | 18 | 0.60 |
| 8 | Detroit Lions | 3.0 | 58.6% | 0.65 | -0.05 | 8 | 17 | 0.59 |
| 9 | Cincinnati Bengals | -6.5 | 71% | -1.39 | 1.91 | 29 | 2 | 0.52 |
| 10 | Atlanta Falcons | -7.9 | 71.1% | -1.68 | 1.93 | 30 | 1 | 0.25 |
| 11 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 0.8 | 59.3% | 0.18 | 0.06 | 12 | 16 | 0.24 |
| 12 | Carolina Panthers | -0.6 | 60.7% | -0.12 | 0.28 | 19 | 14 | 0.16 |
| 13 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -0.9 | 61% | -0.19 | 0.32 | 21 | 13 | 0.14 |
| 14 | Arizona Cardinals | -2.4 | 62.2% | -0.50 | 0.52 | 26 | 9 | 0.02 |
| 15 | Cleveland Browns | -2.1 | 61.6% | -0.44 | 0.42 | 24 | 11 | -0.03 |
| 16 | New York Giants | -4.9 | 65.2% | -1.04 | 1.00 | 28 | 5 | -0.05 |
| 17 | Dallas Cowboys | 2.6 | 54.3% | 0.55 | -0.74 | 9 | 27 | -0.18 |
| 18 | Buffalo Bills | -0.3 | 58.1% | -0.07 | -0.13 | 15 | 20 | -0.21 |
| 19 | Denver Broncos | -0.4 | 57.7% | -0.08 | -0.20 | 16 | 21 | -0.27 |
| 20 | Houston Texans | -0.6 | 57.1% | -0.13 | -0.29 | 20 | 22 | -0.42 |
| 21 | Tennessee Titans | -0.5 | 56.5% | -0.10 | -0.38 | 18 | 23 | -0.47 |
| 22 | Washington Redskins | -4.5 | 61.1% | -0.95 | 0.35 | 27 | 12 | -0.60 |
| 23 | Jacksonville Jaguars | -0.4 | 55.6% | -0.09 | -0.52 | 17 | 24 | -0.61 |
| 24 | Baltimore Ravens | 4.9 | 48% | 1.05 | -1.73 | 4 | 30 | -0.68 |
| 25 | Miami Dolphins | -9.2 | 66.8% | -1.97 | 1.25 | 32 | 3 | -0.72 |
| 26 | San Francisco 49ers | 8.5 | 42.5% | 1.81 | -2.60 | 2 | 32 | -0.79 |
| 27 | Minnesota Vikings | 5.1 | 46.7% | 1.08 | -1.94 | 3 | 31 | -0.86 |
| 28 | Oakland Raiders | -0.9 | 54.5% | -0.19 | -0.70 | 22 | 26 | -0.89 |
| 29 | Indianapolis Colts | -0.2 | 52.9% | -0.05 | -0.95 | 14 | 28 | -1.00 |
| 30 | Seattle Seahawks | 0.6 | 51.7% | 0.13 | -1.14 | 13 | 29 | -1.01 |
| 31 | New York Jets | -8.9 | 64.2% | -1.89 | 0.84 | 31 | 7 | -1.05 |
| 32 | Philadelphia Eagles | -2.2 | 55% | -0.47 | -0.62 | 25 | 25 | -1.09 |
Please leave your thoughts in the comments. One thought I’ve got: this post looks as Pass Ratio, but thanks to a ridiculously dominant defense, the Patriots actually lead the NFL in offensive plays run. As a result, New England actually ranks 4th overall in pass attempts, which is even more stark given the team’s Game Script.