Analyzing the last ten years of trading away future first round picks

April 23, 2014 Draft

When a general manager trades away a future first round pick, it’s worth wondering if the transaction was the effect of the principal-agent problem. A general manager is supposed to act in the best interest of the franchise, but he may instead choose to act in his own self-interest. If he’s on the hot seat, […]

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A closer look at running back aging patterns Part II

March 20, 2014 Fantasy

Two years ago, I wrote this post on running back aging curves. One conclusion from my research was that age 26 was the peak age for running backs, which was immediately followed by a steady decline phase until retirement. In that study, I only wanted to look at very good-to-excellent running backs in the modern […]

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2013 NFL Playoffs: Post Your Predictions

January 2, 2014 Uncategorized

Before the playoffs start, I encourage everyone to post their playoff predictions in the comments. Here are mine: Wild Card Round Saturday, Jan. 4, 4:35 p.m.: Chiefs at Colts — Chiefs Saturday, Jan. 4, 8:10 p.m.: Saints at Eagles — Eagles Sunday, Jan. 5, 1:05 p.m.: Chargers at Bengals — Bengals Sunday, Jan. 5, 4:40 […]

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Eleven Years And Counting

June 6, 2013 Uncategorized

Outstanding. Now the real question? Want to be a Footballguy? That was the e-mail I received from David Dodds on June 6, 2002. The co-owner of Footballguys.com then and now, Dodds was replying to a freelance article I submitted to his site. Two days later, my article was posted, and I had become a paid […]

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Thoughts from a Jets fan on the Darrelle Revis trade

April 21, 2013 Uncategorized

This trade was a Win-Win-Win for all three sides. The Buccaneers received the best cornerback in the NFL when healthy, the perfect elixir for a team that ranked 1st against the run and 32nd against the pass in 2012. I’m a big fan of Josh Freeman, who should continue to improve as he matures. The […]

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Thoughts on Discount Rates When Trading NFL Draft Picks

April 20, 2013 Draft

I’ve received a couple of questions asking about what the discount rate should be when trading future draft picks. For example, two years ago, Atlanta traded the 27th, 59th, and 124th picks in the 2011 draft, along with their first and fourth round picks in the 2012 draft, to the Browns to acquire the 6th […]

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Fourth Quarter/Overtime Game-Winning Field Goals

April 14, 2013 Uncategorized

On Friday, I looked at the career leaders in 4th quarter (and overtime) game-winning touchdowns from scrimmage. Yesterday I presented the all-time leaders in passing touchdowns. Today we give field goal kickers some love using the same criteria. Tweet

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Football Perspective asks: How can I improve the site?

March 24, 2013 Uncategorized

I’m usually the one doing the talking, but we’ve got a long off-season ahead of us. I generally advise people interested in becoming writers to write what they want to write about, but it’s also important to give your audience the type of writing they want to read. This week I looked at a wide […]

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Marty Mornhinweg, and why ranking teams by yards is silly

January 20, 2013 Coaches

On Friday, the Jets finally concluded their search for a new offensive coordinator by hiring Marty Mornhinweg. The reaction was predictably mixed, but one of the facts trumpeted by the pro-Mornhinweg crowd was that he has been an offensive coordinator for 11 years and his teams never ranked lower than 15th on offense. Besides my […]

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Season in review: AFC and NFC North

January 3, 2013 Review

On Monday, I examined the seasons of the teams in the AFC and NFC East. Today I will do the same for the AFC and NFC North, starting in the AFC. Pittsburgh Steelers Pre-season Projection: 10 wins Maximum wins: 11 wins (after weeks 2, 5, and 9) Minimum wins: 8 (after week 16) Week 1 […]

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Checkdowns: QB Playoff Wins by College

November 17, 2012 Uncategorized

Watching Matt Barkley today against UCLA, I tweeted that Mark Sanchez is responsible for 4 of the 9 playoff wins by USC quarterbacks. Since twitter is not a very good medium for showing large datasets, here’s a quick look at which colleges have produced the quarterbacks with the most playoff victories. Two pieces of fine […]

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New page added to Football Perspective: NCAA Games

October 27, 2012 Uncategorized

At the top of every page there are gray tabs that will take you to the different pages at Football Perspective. I’ve added a new one: NCAA Games. That page will show you the results for every individual game involving any of the 124 FBS teams this year. The page will be updated along with […]

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Chan Gailey – wisely? – went for 1 up 5 against Tennessee

October 24, 2012 Uncategorized

In Buffalo’s loss to Tennessee on Sunday, Chan Gailey faced an interesting decision. Buffalo trailed 28-27 in the final seconds of the third quarter when Ryan Fitzpatrick hit Steve Johnson for a 27-yard touchdown. Now up 33-28, Gailey chose to kick the extra point, and ultimately saw his team lose, 35-34. Why did Gailey choose […]

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Checkdowns: Patriots Passing Game Struggles

October 17, 2012 Passing

If there was one thing you can count on in New England, it’s that the Patriots passing attack would be more efficient than their opponent’s nearly every week. From 2003 to 2011, New England averaged 6.9 net yards per pass attempt while their defense allowed 6.0 NY/A. But this season, the Patriots passing offense is […]

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More on fumbling and recovery rates – defense and special teams

October 2, 2012 Uncategorized

Yesterday, I took a comprehensive look at offensive fumbles and the associated fumble rates. Let me first say that going through eleven years of play-by-play logs is an impossible one-man task, which means you need to write a lot of code to sort your way through the hundreds of thousands of plays. Its pretty easy […]

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Four weeks in, the first edition of college football SRS standings

September 23, 2012 College

It’s still too early to really put a lot of faith into the SRS ratings, but hey, we’ve got enough games to at least give it the old college try. As always, thanks to Dr. Peter Wolfe for providing the game scores for all of college football. As a reminder, here’s the system. 1) For […]

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Football Perspective turns 100 days old

September 22, 2012 Uncategorized

It’s been an incredible 100 days here at Football Perspective. When I started this site, I had no idea what to expect. Fortunately, the success so far at Football Perspective has exceeded my wildest expectations. Starting a football site in June isn’t the smartest thing in the world, but I think I’ve been fortunate to […]

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Footballguys.com – Consider Subscribing

August 22, 2012 Uncategorized

Here’s the short sell: If you are a serious fantasy football player, you’ll find that Footballguys.com has more content and is more analytical than any other fantasy site. If you are a casual fantasy footballer, you’ll find that the tools available at Footballguys will make it easy for you to stay atop your league. Either […]

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The Preseason is Meaningless

August 17, 2012 Rant

I have a love/hate relationship with the pre-season. After months without football, it’s hard not to get excited about the prospect of seeing live NFL games. But as soon as I start watching pre-season action, I usually wish I was doing just about anything else. But I keep watching. Maybe the better description is that […]

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Random Perspective On: The 2012 Detroit Lions

July 13, 2012 Random Perspective On

Matthew Stafford threw for 5,038 passing yards last year, making him just the 4th man to ever throw for 5,000 yards in a season. Of course, Stafford also threw 663 passes in 2011, the third most in league history. Stafford actually ranked 13th in yards per attempt last season, which put him just ahead of […]

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Welcome to FootballPerspective.com

June 15, 2012 Uncategorized

Welcome to footballperspective.com. Football Perspective is a blog about football history, football stats, and football stats and history. I’ve written about fantasy football for the past decade over at Footballguys.com, the leading fantasy football content site in the industry. I also worked for a number of years at pro-football-reference.com, and you can find all of […]

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