In general, the first running back selected in the Draft finishes as the top rookie running back frequently, all things considered, particularly when the top rookie running back was a high pick (think Todd Gurley or Ezekiel Elliott). Given that there are over 20 rookie running backs most seasons, it is remarkable that the top rookie running back can be the most productive player even more than 25% of the time, which they do.

That was also the case in 2018, at least if you define productivity by traditional measures (advanced metrics may tell a different story). Saquon Barkley had 1,307 rushing yards, 721 receiving yards, and 15 offensive touchdowns; if you credit each touchdown with an additional 20 yards on top of the yards gained to produce that touchdown, that gives Barkley 2,328 adjusted yards.

He also was, by far, the running back on whom the most draft capital was spent. Selected with the 2nd overall pick, the Giants used 30.2 points of draft value on Barkley. That’s more than double the value spent on any other running back.

The graph below shows the draft value and adjusted yards for each rookie running back in 2018. The Y-Axis shows adjusted yards; obviously more is better, and being higher on the chart means more yards. The X-Axis shows draft value, shown in reverse order (you can also think of it as draft pick shown in regular order, but I like my charts to place the best quadrant in the upper right; therefore, draft value is shown from most capital spent to least).

Barkley (in red/blue) stands out on his own island, both in draft capital and production. Broncos undrafted rookie Phillip Lindsay (in orange/blue) is the high point among players with zero draft capital, while Ravens rookie Gus Edwards also fared well for an UDFA (he’s in purple/yellow and at the far right of the graph).

Redskins rookie Derrius Guice — who missed the season due to injury, colored in burgundy/gold — and Bucs rookie Ronald Jones (97 adjusted yards) are at the bottom of the chart despite being relatively high picks. Although, of course, the draft capital spent on them was still pretty low, relative to Barkley.

Two other notable players also in their team colors: Browns rookie Nick Chubb, who was the 35th pick in the draft and finished with the 3rd most adjusted yards, and Colts rookie Nyheim Hines, who was a 4th round pick but finished 6th in adjusted yards, behind only Lindsay and players taken in the first two rounds.

This chart and the results today may not surprise you, but unsurprising results are themselves noteworthy. Especially when the unsurprising results — highly drafted players perform better as rookies — don’t hold true at other positions.