An ordinary running back.
So how do things look at the running back position? The Bills drafted Willis McGahee knowing he would miss his entire rookie season, while Bo Jackson chose to play baseball instead of playing with the Buccaneers. Ki-Jana Carter and Larry Stegent suffered season-ending injuries in the pre-season of their rookie years, making them inapplicable for our purposes, assuming Richardson stays healthy. What about the other 38 running backs who were the first at their position selected in the draft since the merger?
Over 40% of those highest drafted running backs led their class1 in rushing yards as a rookie, while exactly half gained at least 75% as many rushing yards as the the most productive rookie running back. That may not be particularly impressive in the abstract, but represents a much better track record than we saw at the wide receiver position. On the other hand, recent history has not been particularly great: in the past 10 years, arguably every top rookie running back outside of Adrian Peterson disappointed, as even Moreno failed to meet the expectations of many.
Richardson is the favorite to be the most productive rookie running back, although “the field” appears to be a more enticing proposition. But Cleveland drafted Richardson for what he can do for the next five or ten years, which will ultimately be much more significant than how he performs in 2012. Even if the highest drafted running back is unlikely to lead his draft class in rushing yards as a rookie, is he more likely (than the field) to lead his draft class in career rushing yards?
The table below shows the career rushing yards gained by the top drafted running back in each of the last 42 drafts, along with how he performed relative to the best runner (as measured by total rushing yards) selected in the same draft:
Year | Running Back | Team | Pick | College | Rush Yds | % of Leader | Top Career |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | Mark Ingram | NOR | 28 | Alabama | 474 | 0.53 | DeMarco Murray |
| 2010 | C.J. Spiller | BUF | 9 | Clemson | 844 | 0.48 | Ryan Mathews |
| 2009 | Knowshon Moreno | DEN | 12 | Georgia | 1905 | 0.63 | LeSean McCoy |
| 2008 | Darren McFadden | OAK | 4 | Arkansas | 2627 | 0.47 | Chris Johnson |
| 2007 | Adrian Peterson | MIN | 7 | Oklahoma | 6752 | 1.00 | Adrian Peterson |
| 2006 | Reggie Bush | NOR | 2 | USC | 3176 | 0.46 | Maurice Jones-Drew |
| 2005 | Ronnie Brown | MIA | 2 | Auburn | 4951 | 0.65 | Frank Gore |
| 2004 | Steven Jackson | STL | 24 | Oregon St. | 9093 | 1.00 | Steven Jackson |
| 2003 | Willis McGahee | BUF | 23 | Miami (FL) | 7366 | 1.00 | Willis McGahee |
| 2002 | William Green | CLE | 16 | Boston Col. | 2109 | 0.21 | Clinton Portis |
| 2001 | LaDainian Tomlinson | SDG | 5 | TCU | 13684 | 1.00 | LaDainian Tomlinson |
| 2000 | Jamal Lewis | BAL | 5 | Tennessee | 10607 | 1.00 | Jamal Lewis |
| 1999 | Edgerrin James | IND | 4 | Miami (FL) | 12246 | 1.00 | Edgerrin James |
| 1998 | Curtis Enis | CHI | 5 | Penn St. | 1497 | 0.13 | Fred Taylor |
| 1997 | Warrick Dunn | TAM | 12 | Florida St. | 10967 | 0.98 | Corey Dillon |
| 1996 | Lawrence Phillips | STL | 6 | Nebraska | 1453 | 0.14 | Eddie George |
| 1995 | Ki-Jana Carter | CIN | 1 | Penn St. | 1144 | 0.08 | Curtis Martin |
| 1994 | Marshall Faulk | IND | 2 | San Diego St. | 12279 | 1.00 | Marshall Faulk |
| 1993 | Garrison Hearst | PHO | 3 | Georgia | 7966 | 0.58 | Jerome Bettis |
| 1992 | Tommy Vardell | CLE | 9 | Stanford | 1427 | 0.36 | Edgar Bennett |
| 1991 | Leonard Russell | NWE | 14 | Arizona St. | 3973 | 0.37 | Ricky Watters |
| 1990 | Blair Thomas | NYJ | 2 | Penn St. | 2236 | 0.12 | Emmitt Smith |
| 1989 | Barry Sanders | DET | 3 | Oklahoma St. | 15269 | 1.00 | Barry Sanders |
| 1988 | Gaston Green | RAM | 14 | UCLA | 2136 | 0.18 | Thurman Thomas |
| 1987 | Alonzo Highsmith | HOU | 3 | Miami (FL) | 1195 | 0.24 | Christian Okoye |
| 1986 | Bo Jackson | TAM | 1 | Auburn | 2782 | 0.45 | Neal Anderson |
| 1985 | George Adams | NYG | 19 | Kentucky | 886 | 0.11 | Herschel Walker |
| 1984 | Greg Bell | BUF | 26 | Notre Dame | 4959 | 0.60 | Earnest Byner |
| 1983 | Eric Dickerson | RAM | 2 | SMU | 13259 | 1.00 | Eric Dickerson |
| 1982 | Darrin Nelson | MIN | 7 | Stanford | 4442 | 0.36 | Marcus Allen |
| 1981 | George Rogers | NOR | 1 | South Carolina | 7176 | 0.89 | Freeman McNeil |
| 1980 | Billy Sims | DET | 1 | Oklahoma | 5106 | 0.95 | Joe Cribbs |
| 1979 | Ottis Anderson | STL | 8 | Miami (FL) | 10273 | 1.00 | Ottis Anderson |
| 1978 | Earl Campbell | HOU | 1 | Texas | 9407 | 1.00 | Earl Campbell |
| 1977 | Ricky Bell | TAM | 1 | USC | 3063 | 0.24 | Tony Dorsett |
| 1976 | Chuck Muncie | NOR | 3 | California | 6702 | 0.91 | Mike Pruitt |
| 1975 | Walter Payton | CHI | 4 | Jackson St. | 16726 | 1.00 | Walter Payton |
| 1974 | Bo Matthews | SDG | 2 | Colorado | 1566 | 0.24 | Mark van Eeghen |
| 1973 | Otis Armstrong | DEN | 9 | Purdue | 4453 | 0.75 | Chuck Foreman |
| 1972 | Franco Harris | PIT | 13 | Penn St. | 12120 | 1.00 | Franco Harris |
| 1971 | John Riggins | NYJ | 6 | Kansas | 11352 | 1.00 | John Riggins |
| 1970 | Larry Stegent | STL | 8 | Texas A&M | 0 | 0.00 | Jim Otis |
The results are actually a little less impressive here. Whereas the top drafted rookie wide receiver generally took some time to develop, the situation looks different at running back. One-third of the highest-drafted running backs finished with the most career rushing yards in their class, only slighter higher than the results we saw with wide receivers. The results look to be better across the board than they were at wide receiver, but perhaps the bigger takeaway is that the top drafted rookie runner performed slightly better as a rookie relative to his peers than he did over the course of his career. More on this tomorrow.
To highlight the issue, let’s turn this into a poll:
Loading ...The sample sizes are not large enough to draft any significant conclusions to answer the above question. But I think it’s an interesting intellectual exercise. What do you think?
Previous “Random Perspective On” Articles:
AFC East: Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, New York Jets
AFC North: Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers
AFC South: Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans
AFC West: Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers
NFC East: Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins
NFC North: Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings, Atlanta Falcons
NFC South: Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
NFC West: Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, St. Louis Rams
- Note that this only includes drafted running backs. [↩]
{ 10 comments… read them below or add one }
In the 1970′s, 5 times the first RB picked turned out to be the career leader when compared to same year RB draft picks. In the 1980′s and 1990′s, it happened twice. So far, for the 2000′s (2000-2010) its is 5 with several careers still active. I know, too little data for a trend but just what caught my eye.
Speaking of Cleveland–in 1965 their HOF RB Jim Brown retires as the league leader. He is succeeded by another HOF RB, Leroy Kelly, who finishes 2nd that year in rushing and leads the league the next. Any other times one HOF RB as lead runner is succeeded by another HOF’er?
In the earlier days of pro football, it happened a few times. And don’t forget, Brown also played with Bobby Mitchell in Cleveland. Ollie Matson followed Charlie Trippi with the Cardinals. And there has been some overlap, not just with Hornung and Taylor but combos like Marcus Allen and Eric Dickerson, Perry, McElhenny and Johnson with the 49ers, and Taylor and Mitchell in Washington.
I voted for the 20-year option. To me that just seems like the “safest” bet. It’s easy for the theoretical best player to have a bad year, or an injury and not be the most productive. But it seems much more likely for the theoretical best player to wind up with the best career. But even that can be a little shaky when you figure that sometimes the best player might retire early and get surpassed by a lesser player.
I can see Trent Richardson accomplishing both, but I think that leading in the first year is much more likely because of the offensive line he’s got to run behind in Cleveland and the probability that most of the other HB’s picked this year won’t be starters yet. Martin, Pead, Wilson, and James won’t be more than platoon guys, if that, whilst Richardson is clearly the man in Cleveland (though I’m curious about Chris Ogbonnaya’s future, myself). On the other hand, though Richardson looks to be set up as the long term solution in Cleveland, this wouldn’t be the first time one of their highly-touted prospects has disappointed, i.e. Braylon Edwards, Tim Couch, Kevin Johnson, or William Green. There is simply too much that can happen to a player over the course of a career for me to bet on Richardson to be the best in his class as of yet. I’ll take the field on this one.
Thanks Chase for the NFL History background. I hadn’t taken the time to examine the HOF lineage/successor of the past. And certainly with fewer teams the chance of HOF following another was greater. Charli Trippi to Ollie Matson is a good one. I checked out some video of Ollie Matson after he died recently. He was quite the stud with his size and speed combination. And I felt a bit self-peeved not remembering the Marcus Allen/Eric Dickerson combo. So I guess the HOFers Brown to Kelly transition was not that unusual after all.
It’s a ‘what are the odds of that?’ question. Come on now!
Brandon Weeden announced as starter in Cleveland. How many teams have gone with a rookie QB and a rookie RB at the same time, and how many had success?
The 2007 Bills had Trent Edwards and Marshawn Lynch starting as rookies (though Edwards was not the original starter). That was a fairly weak 7-9 team.
The 1996 Rams had Tony Banks and Lawrence Phillips starting as rookies (though again Banks was not the original starter). That was a really bad 6-10 team.
The 1989 Lions had Rodney Peete and Barry Sanders starting as rookies (Peete was injured at the beginning of the year, but was supposed to be the starter). That was a mediocre 7-9 team.
The 1985 Browns started Bernie Kosar and Kevin Mack (Kosar did not start opening day but was the primary starter). That was a dead-average 8-8 team that made the playoffs.
The 1976 Seahawks started Jim Zorn, Sherman Smith, and Don Testerman (Testerman was a fullback) as rookies. That was probably the worst team in the league and went 2-12. Their top WR, Steve Largent, was also a rookie.
I believe that’s all since the merger, though I certainly could have missed some.
If we widen the search to all teams who had a rookie lead in passing and rushing yards, I’ve also got:
–Alex Smith and Frank Gore on the ’05 49ers
–David Carr and Jonathan Wells on the ’02 Texans
–Tom Owen and Wilbur Jackson on the ’74 49ers
– John Reaves and Po James on the ’72 Eagles
– Scott Hunter and John Brockington on the ’71 Packers
Po James? Nice!
So basically we’re saying that if you are going to rely on rookies at QB and RB, playoff prospects are grim for season N. In fact, season N+1, N+2, N+3, N+4, etc. don’t look too good either. The Rams won the Super Bowl in season N+3, but with different guys at both positions. The N+1 Browns were pretty good. The N+2 Lions were a playoff team, but with a different QB.
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