Is Quarterback Stability on the Rise?

August 19, 2014 History

This time last year: Michael Vick was fighting Nick Foles for the Eagles starting job, a battle Vick ultimately won. Brandon Weeden was preparing for his second season as the Browns starting quarterback. Matt Schaub was preparing to lead the Texans to another 12-win season and AFC South title. Josh Freeman was looking to resurrect […]

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Predictions: Is it Too Early to Get Excited (Or Worried) About Rookie QBs?

August 18, 2014 History

The preseason is meaningless, right? Well, as it turns out, it might give us a window into quarterback development, despite what you might think. The threshold for whether the preseason is useful is whether including that information tells us anything about a quarterback’s potential that we don’t already know from his draft position (or perhaps […]

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Which Young Quarterbacks Are On Track To Become Franchise QBs?

August 12, 2014 Current Events

Yesterday, I looked at how long it took the best quarterbacks to break out. Today, I want to apply what we learned from that post to 15 current NFL quarterbacks with fewer than 50 starts, all of whom were 26 years old or younger during the 2013 season. Sam Bradford (49 career starts): Career Relative […]

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How Long Does It Take Great Quarterbacks To Break out?

August 11, 2014 History

A couple of years ago, I asked how long it should have taken the Jaguars to move on from Blaine Gabbert. Today I want to revisit that general idea, but look at how long it takes the best quarterbacks to identify themselves as top-tier players. A couple of months ago, I looked at the greatest […]

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Quarterback Losses Trivia

July 30, 2014 Quarterbacks

Can you name the two quarterbacks with the most losses in a single season? What about the quarterback with the most losses during his rookie year? Tweet

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Worst Passer Ratings In Every Year Since the Merger

July 20, 2014 History

In 2013, Geno Smith had the worst passer rating (66.5) in the NFL. The year before, Mark Sanchez had a passer rating of 66.9, which was very nearly the lowest in the league (Matt Cassel had a rating of 66.7). But while the Jets didn’t quite do it, a couple of teams have managed to […]

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The Top Receivers And The Men Who Threw It To Them II

July 14, 2014 Quarterbacks

One of my first posts at Football Perspective was one of my favorites: the top receivers and the men who threw it to them. I like referencing that post from time to time, so I decided to update the numbers through the 2013 season. I looked at all regular season games since 19601, and calculated […]

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Which Passers Were Most Effective on Third Down in in 2013?

June 26, 2014 Quarterbacks

Last off-season, I looked at passing performance on “third downs”, and I thought it would be fun to revisit that idea this summer. As before, I am putting that term in quotes because I’m including fourth down data in the analysis, but don’t want to write third and fourth down throughout this post. To grade […]

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The best and worst passing games of 2013

June 18, 2014 Passing

Yesterday, I analyzed the 2013 passing numbers for strength of schedule. Today, we look at the best and worst games of the year, from the perspectives of both the quarterbacks and the defenses. Let’s start with the top 100 passing games from 2014. The top spot belongs to Philadelphia’s Nick Foles, for his monstrous performance […]

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2013 Rearview Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt

June 17, 2014 Quarterbacks

Every year at Footballguys.com, I publish an article called Rearview QB, which adjusts the fantasy football statistics for quarterbacks (and defenses) for strength of schedule. I’ve also done the same thing for years (including last season) using ANY/A instead of fantasy points, which helps us fully understand the best and worst real life performances each […]

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The Greatest QB of All-Time V, Part III: Adjusted Dropbacks

June 13, 2014 Quarterbacks

The comments to Parts I and II of this series have been great, so let me start with a thank you. One of the more difficult parts of this process is comparing players across eras not just for efficiency, but for gross volume. In 2013, teams averaged 38.0 pass attempts (including sacks) per game, compared […]

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The Greatest QB of All-Time V, Part II: Career Rankings

June 10, 2014 G.O.A.T.

Yesterday, I explained the methodology behind the formula involved in ranking every quarterback season since 1960. Today, I’m going to present the career results. Converting season value to career value isn’t as simple as it might seem. Generally, we don’t want a player who was very good for 12 years to rank ahead of a […]

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The Greatest QB of All-Time V, Part I (Methodology)

June 9, 2014 G.O.A.T.

In 2006, I took a stab at ranking every quarterback in NFL history. Two years later, I acquired more data and made enough improvements to merit publishing an updated and more accurate list of the best quarterbacks the league has ever seen. In 2009, I tweaked the formula again, and published a set of career […]

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Andrew Luck and Quarterback Help

June 6, 2014 Quarterbacks

It’s no secret that Andrew Luck’s efficiency numbers aren’t quite up to par with his reputation. Over the past two seasons, Luck ranks just 18th in ANY/A, far behind some of the other young quarterbacks in the NFL. Nick Foles, Russell Wilson, and Colin Kaepernick rank in the top 6th in that metric, Robert Griffin […]

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Are First Round Quarterbacks Starting Earlier?

May 23, 2014 Draft

Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel, and Teddy Bridgewater were selected in the first round of the 2014 Draft. The Jaguars seem intent on giving Bortles a redshirt year, but it seems likely that the Browns and Vikings will hand their rookie quarterbacks the reins at some point early this fall. From the first common draft in […]

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Who is the Best Backup Quarterback Ever?

May 16, 2014 Quarterbacks

Determining the best backup quarterback ever is really complicated. Steve Young and Aaron Rodgers backed up Joe Montana and Brett Favre, respectively, but neither Young nor Rodgers morally feel like they belong in the discussion of best backup quarterbacks. There are a couple of ways to measure how a backup quarterback fares. One way is […]

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The Evolution of Quarterbacks

May 4, 2014 Data Dump

With the NFL draft approaching, you’ll hear a lot of statements about how the quarterback position is changing. Mobile quarterbacks are now “in”, which is a good thing for Johnny Manziel. A 6’4 frame is no longer required, which is a good thing for… well, Manziel, and negates some of the value of a player […]

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Peyton Manning, Matt Ryan, and Andrew Luck are ESPN QBR Stars

April 14, 2014 Quarterbacks

A few weeks ago, I put ESPN’s Total QBR under the microscope. Today, I want to look at the quarterbacks whose passing statistics most differ from their QBR grades. Total QBR grades go back to 2006, so to start, I ran a regression using Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt to predict Total QBR. The best-fit […]

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Is there any hope in Oakland for Matt Schaub?

April 9, 2014 Quarterbacks

Is Matt Schaub washed up? Is he the next Jake Delhomme? For the first six seasons of his Texans career, Schaub was an above-average quarterback in both Net Yards per Attempt and Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt. But last year was disastrous in a way that his poor conventional stats fail to completely capture (for […]

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Is ESPN’s QBR the best measure of quarterback play?

March 31, 2014 Quarterbacks

One of the very first posts at Football Perspective measured how various passing stats were correlated with wins.  One of the main conclusions from that post was that passer rating, because of its heavy emphasis on completion percentage and interception rate, was not the ideal way to measure quarterback play. But what about ESPN’s Total […]

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Expected Quarterbacks Wins Based On Passing Efficiency

March 24, 2014 Quarterbacks

On Friday, the Jets released Mark Sanchez. I don’t have much in the way of a post mortem, but it felt odd not to have at least some post on the subject. And despite watching every Sanchez start for four years, it still takes me by surprise when I see that his career record is […]

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Which Quarterbacks Produced Peak Years For Their Receivers?

March 23, 2014 History

Some quarterbacks and wide receivers just go together. Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison. Dan Marino and Mark Clayton and Mark Duper. Joe Namath and Don Maynard. John Hadl and Lance Alworth. But quarterbacks play with lots of receivers, and receivers generally play with several quarterbacks. We don’t remember most combinations, but that doesn’t mean they […]

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What do Schaub and Fitzpatrick mean for Bortles, Manziel, and Bridgewater?

March 22, 2014 Current Events

The Texans and Raiders recently made a couple of veteran quarterback acquisitions. The team with the first overall pick in May’s draft signed Ryan Fitzpatrick and then traded Matt Schaub to Oakland, owners of the fifth overall selection. Will either team now be deterred from spending a top five pick on Teddy Bridgewater, Blake Bortles, […]

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Checkdowns: Judging QBs By Their Top 5 Seasons

March 19, 2014 Quarterbacks

While working on a different post, I needed to derive a quick-and-dirty formula to identify the top 100 or so quarterbacks in NFL history. Here is how I went about doing that: 1) Calculate the Relative ANY/A of each quarterback in every season since 1950. ANY/A, of course, is Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt, defined […]

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Comparing The Stats Of Terry Bradshaw And Kurt Warner

March 5, 2014 History

Terry Bradshaw finished his career with 212 touchdowns, 210 interceptions and a 70.9 passer rating. Kurt Warner threw 208 touchdowns against only 128 interceptions, and his 93.7 passer rating ranks 8th in NFL history and 2nd among retired players. But Bradshaw played from 1970 to 1982, while Warner played from 1998 to 2009. As a […]

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What do Geno Smith’s Final Four Starts Mean For 2014?

March 4, 2014 Quarterbacks

In Geno Smith’s first 12 NFL starts, he completed 179 of 327 passes (54.7%) for 2,256 yards, with 8 touchdowns and 19 interceptions. Those numbers translate to a 6.9 yards per attempt average, quite respectable for a rookie, and a 4.8 Adjusted Yards per Attempt average, abysmal for anybody. But over the last four weeks […]

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The Best Playoff Quarterbacks In The Super Bowl Era

January 28, 2014 Passing

On Friday, I explained the idea behind Playoff Leverage. That post is required reading before diving in today, but the summary is that the Super Bowl counts for more than the conference championship games, which count for more than the division round games, which count for more than the wild card games. The value that […]

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Super Bowl Leverage And the Best Postseason Passers Since 1966

January 24, 2014 G.O.A.T.

Even for Football Perspective, this is a very math-heavy post. I’ve explained all the dirty work and fine details behind this system, but if you want to skip to the results section, I’ll understand. Heck, it might even make more sense to start there and then work your way back to the top. Background In […]

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With a Super Bowl Win, Manning 2013 Will Be The Greatest QB Season Ever

January 20, 2014 Passing

In 1984, Dan Marino set an NFL record with 48 touchdown passes, but his Dolphins lost in the Super Bowl. Twenty years later, Peyton Manning broke Marino’s record, but he lost to the eventual Super Bowl champion Patriots in the playoffs. In 2007, Tom Brady broke Manning’s touchdowns record, but he lost in the Super […]

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More Impressive Passing TD Record: Manning 2013 or Marino 1984?

December 26, 2013 History

With one game remaining, Peyton Manning has already set the new single-season record with 51 passing touchdowns (two months ago, I projected Manning to finish the season with 52 touchdowns). But all records must be viewed in their environment, and NFL teams are averaging 1.58 touchdown passes per team game this year, the highest average […]

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