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Brad Oremland is a longtime commenter and a fellow football historian. Brad is also a senior NFL writer at Sports Central. There are few who have given as much thought to the history of quarterbacks and quarterback ranking systems as Brad has over the years. What follows is Brad’s latest work on the greatest quarterbacks of all time.

Part I: Pre-Modern Era
Part II: 49-101
Part III: 40-48
Part IV: 31-39
Part V: 21-30
Part V: 11-20

This week, I’m profiling the players who rank 6-10 on my list, counting down toward number one. Please note: at this point, we’re talking about the best of the best QBs. When I mention a player’s weaknesses, I’m not trying to insult him, just explaining why he doesn’t rate even higher.

10. Roger Staubach
Dallas Cowboys, 1969-79
22,700 yards, 153 TD, 109 INT, 83.4 rating

Roger Staubach was the best quarterback of the 1970s. He led all passers in rating and in TD/INT differential (+45), the latter nearly doubling a second-place tie between Fran Tarkenton and Kenny Anderson (+24). Despite playing only eight full seasons, Staubach also ranked among the top three QBs of the ’70s in both passing yards and rushing yards. He was the first-team QB on the NFL’s All-1970s Team.

Staubach’s statistics are exceptional. He led the league in passer rating four times, and retired with the highest rating in NFL history. Staubach was distinguished by his combination of short-range and downfield accuracy. Throwing underneath, he hit the receiver in stride, but he was also a great downfield passer. A dangerous dual-threat, Staubach was also known for his running, an ability that earned him the nickname “Roger the Dodger.” Staubach rushed for 2,204 yards and 19 TDs, ranking among the top 10 rushing QBs every full season of his career. [click to continue…]


Brad Oremland is a longtime commenter and a fellow football historian. Brad is also a senior NFL writer at Sports Central. There are few who have given as much thought to the history of quarterbacks and quarterback ranking systems as Brad has over the years. What follows is Brad’s latest work on the greatest quarterbacks of all time.

Part I: Pre-Modern Era
Part II: 49-101
Part III: 40-48
Part IV: 31-39
Part V: 21-30

This week, I’m profiling the players who rank 11-20 on my list, counting down toward number one. Please note: at this point, we’re talking about the best of the best QBs. When I mention a player’s weaknesses, I’m not trying to insult him, just explaining why he doesn’t rate even higher.

20. Y.A. Tittle
Baltimore Colts, 1948-50; San Francisco 49ers, 1951-60; New York Giants, 1961-64
33,070 yards, 242 TD, 248 INT, 74.3 rating

Y.A. Tittle retired as the all-time leader in passing yards and passing TDs. Those are holy marks, passed from Tittle to Johnny Unitas, then to Fran Tarkenton and Dan Marino, on to Brett Favre and now on their way to Peyton Manning. Tittle led the NFL in passing touchdowns three times — including 36 in 1963, a record that lasted more than 20 years. [click to continue…]


Three years ago on Father’s Day, I posted a trivia question about the first quarterback to get to 100 losses. I won’t spoil that for new readers, and older readers have bad memories so you can try your hand at that trivia question again.

Today, a different trivia question: Who was the first quarterback to get to 100 wins?

Trivia hint 1 Show

Trivia hint 2 Show

Trivia hint 3 Show

Click 'Show' for the Answer Show

Unitas was the career record holder for about nine years. Then, on October 1st, 1978, Fran Tarkenton and the Vikings beat the Buccaneers in Tampa Bay. That marked the 119th victory of Tarkenton’s career, breaking the tie with Unitas set one week earlier. Tarkenton would win five more games in ’78, his final season in the NFL.

Tarkenton was the NFL’s winningest quarterback for 18 years. On December 1st, 1996, John Elway and the Broncos crushed the Seahawks, 34-7. In the process, Elway picked up his 125th career victory. When he set the record, Elway held only a narrow lead in the wins department over Dan Marino. But the ’97 and ’98 seasons were good to him, and Elway retired with 148 career wins. Marino played for one more year, but retired one shy, with 147 career wins.

Elway held the record for just over ten years. That was until Brett Favre, in a 35-13 win over the Giants, won his 149th career game.

Favre retired with 186 wins. And right now, Peyton Manning enters the 2015 season with 178 wins. It would be a surprise if Manning doesn’t edge out Favre this season, which would make Favre — at 8 years — the man who held the title of ‘winningest quarterback’ for the shortest amount of time. How long will Manning hold the record? That will depend on Tom Brady, who has 160 wins. Will Brady play long enough to eclipse Manning? Whichever of the two winds up on top will hold the record for the foreseeable future, especially if they extend it out to 200 wins.


Brad Oremland is a longtime commenter and a fellow football historian. Brad is also a senior NFL writer at Sports Central. He’s contributed today’s guest post, and we thank him for that. This one is certainly thought-provoking.

I recently ranked Doug Flutie 31st among the greatest quarterbacks of all time, ahead of accomplished players like Kurt Warner, Boomer Esiason, and Ben Roethlisberger. Perhaps predictably, the unconventional ranking for Flutie generated questions, comments, and plain disagreement. I hope this follow-up will clear some of the confusion and help readers understand my reasoning.

I was attempting to rank the greatest quarterbacks ever — not just the best NFL quarterbacks — and this was not a stat-based evaluation. Statistics play a large role in the assessment of players, but they do not form an exclusive basis for it. When I rated Flutie ahead of Warner and company, I wasn’t suggesting that he had a better NFL career than those players, just that he was a better quarterback.

Here’s a breakdown of Flutie’s career:

* New Jersey Generals, 1985 (USFL)
* Chicago Bears, 1986-87
* New England Patriots, 1987-89
* BC Lions, 1990-91 (CFL)
* Calgary Stampeders, 1992-95 (CFL)
* Toronto Argonauts, 1996-97 (CFL)
* Buffalo Bills, 1998-2000
* San Diego Chargers, 2001-04
* New England Patriots, 2005 [click to continue…]


Brad Oremland is a longtime commenter and a fellow football historian. Brad is also a senior NFL writer at Sports Central. There are few who have given as much thought to the history of quarterbacks and quarterback ranking systems as Brad has over the years. What follows is Brad’s latest work on the greatest quarterbacks of all time.

Part I: Pre-Modern Era
Part II: 49-101
Part III: 40-48
Part IV: 31-39

This week, I’m profiling the players who rank 21-30 on my list. The players are ranked in order, but please don’t read too much into that: I consider this a group of quarterbacks, all roughly the same level. If you’re outraged that #26 is higher than #29, you have my blessing to flip them.

30. John Brodie
San Francisco 49ers, 1957-73
31,548 yards, 214 TD, 224 INT, 72.3 rating
[click to continue…]


There were 220 touchdown passes thrown during the 1950 season. Let’s break down who threw those scores into three categories:

  • 22 were thrown by players who were not playing professional football in 1949, including rookies like Tobin Rote and Adrian Burk.

Now, for some perspective, note that in 1949, there were 10 NFL teams and 7 AAFC teams.1 All else being equal, with just one merged league in 1950, you might expect the splits to be along the lines of 59% NFL, 41% AAFC. The above data looks as though this would support the widely-held notion that the NFL was the superior league.2 But if you dive a little bit deeper into the analysis, you get a slightly different picture: [click to continue…]

  1. Historians might recall that the AAFC was an 8-team league. That’s generally true, but the Brooklyn Dodgers merged with the New York Yankees prior to the ’49 season. And yes, both of those teams were AAFC teams, not MLB teams. []
  2. Although, frankly, I’m not even sure if this would support the case nearly as much as many would suggest, since discarding the AAFC entirely is acceptable to some observers. []

Brad Oremland is a longtime commenter and a fellow football historian. Brad is also a senior NFL writer at Sports Central. There are few who have given as much thought to the history of quarterbacks and quarterback ranking systems as Brad has over the years. What follows is Brad’s latest work on the greatest quarterbacks of all time.

Part I: Pre-Modern Era
Part II: 49-101
Part III: 40-48
Part IV: 31-39
Part V: 21-30

This week, I’m profiling the players who rank about 30-40 on my list. The players are ranked in order, but please don’t read too much into that: I consider this a group of quarterbacks, all roughly the same level. If you’re furious that #34 is higher than #37, you have my blessing to flip them.

39. Steve McNair
Houston/Tennessee Oilers/Titans, 1995-2005; Baltimore Ravens, 2006-07
31,304 yards, 174 TD, 119 INT, 82.8 rating

Mark Brunell, Rich Gannon, Jeff Garcia, and Steve McNair all played in the late ’90s and early ’00s, with low INT rates and excellent running. They’re easy to compare. The stats below include sacks:


McNair has the lowest passer rating, but the most net yards (33,327) and the most total touchdowns (211). He and Brunell had the most good seasons, he and Gannon were named NFL MVP, and McNair stands alone as a playmaking scrambler. Only five players in NFL history have 30,000 passing yards and 3,000 rushing yards: John Elway, Donovan McNabb, Fran Tarkenton, Steve Young, and Steve McNair. As a dual-threat QB, McNair was one of the finest ever to play. His 64 rushing yards in Super Bowl XXXIV is the record for quarterbacks. [click to continue…]


Brad Oremland is a longtime commenter and a fellow football historian. Brad is also a senior NFL writer at Sports Central. There are few who have given as much thought to the history of quarterbacks and quarterback ranking systems as Brad has over the years. What follows is Brad’s latest work on the greatest quarterbacks of all time.

Part I: Pre-Modern Era
Part II: 49-101
Part III: 40-48
Part IV: 31-39
Part V: 21-30

This week, I’m profiling the players who rank about 40-48 on my list, in alphabetical order:

Charlie Conerly
New York Giants, 1948-61
19,488 yards, 173 TD, 167 INT, 68.2 rating

The hype was always there for Chuck Conerly. He was a star at Ole Miss, and he was the Giants’ quarterback when they were the only team in New York. Playing for a coaching staff that included Tom Landry and Vince Lombardi, alongside Hall of Fame players like Rosey Brown, Frank Gifford, Sam Huff, Andy Robustelli, and Emlen Tunnell, Conerly was set up for success. The Giants were competitive every season, and they won an NFL championship in 1956. [click to continue…]


Quarterback Rushing Data Since 1950

The 2007 season was the ultimate fantasy of the immobile quarterback lover. No quarterback rushed for 400 yards, after at least one quarterback did so in each of the ten prior seasons. Just as importantly, the top quarterbacks were all pocket passers: Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Tony Romo (only 129 rushing yards that season), Brett Favre, Jon Kitna, Peyton Manning, Matt Hasselbeck, Derek Anderson, Jay Cutler, Kurt Warner, and Eli Manning were the top 12 leaders in passing yards. As a group, those dozen quarterbacks rushed for just 67 yards, led by Cutler’s staggering 205 rushing yards.

But it was only seven years earlier that the mobile quarterback wave was taking the NFL by storm. Six quarterbacks hit the 400-yard rushing mark: Donovan McNabb (629), Rich Gannon (529), Daunte Culpepper (470), Kordell Stewart (436), Jeff Garcia (414), and Steve McNair (403). Of the top ten leaders in passing yards, only Vinny Testaverde and Kerry Collins failed to rush for at least 100 yards, and the top 12 leaders in passing yards rushed for an average of 236 yards.

Since 2012, the mobile quarterback has re-emerged. So how do we test how much each quarterback has run since 1950? Here’s what I did. [click to continue…]


Brad Oremland is a longtime commenter and a fellow football historian. Brad is also a senior NFL writer at Sports Central. There are few who have given as much thought to the history of quarterbacks and quarterback ranking systems as Brad has over the years. What follows is Brad’s latest work on the greatest quarterbacks of all time.

Part I: Pre-Modern Era
Part II: 49-101
Part III: 40-48
Part IV: 31-39
Part V: 21-30

I’ve been studying NFL history throughout my life. It’s a journey that began the first time I watched my dad’s copy of NFL’s Greatest Hits on VHS, accelerating when I read Total Football II, and continuing when I began sportswriting over a decade ago.

Something I’ve never done is publish my list of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history. I’m finally stepping into the ring. But because I’ve done so much research over the years, this is not a simple list. Instead, I’ll present my choices as a series of articles, highlighting about 10 players per list, and counting down to number one. We began last week, with quarterbacks who preceded the Modern Era, like Sammy Baugh and Sid Luckman. [click to continue…]


You remember 2012, don’t you? Among quarterbacks with 200 pass attempts, Colin Kaepernick ranked 2nd in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt, RG3 ranked 4th, and Cam Newton ranked a respectable 11th. The young quarterbacks — Kaepernick and Griffin were in their first years as starters, while Newton was just 23 — seemed poised to take over the NFL. If they were this good in 2012, how good would they be in 2014?

As it turns out, not all young quarterbacks improve gradually with age. Some even take a step back. Or, in the case of these three, two steps back. Take a look at their respective ANY/A ratings in each of the past three seasons:

Colin Kaepernick7.556.655.58
Robert Griffin7.475.485.17
Cam Newton6.655.695.45

In terms of Relative ANY/A — that is, ANY/A minus league average — Kaepernick has fallen from +1.6 to +0.8 to -0.6. Newton has had a similar decline but just from a lower starting point, dropping from +0.7 to -0.2 to finally -0.7. Griffin, of course, has seen the most dramatic change, going from +1.5 to -0.4 to -1.0 last year.

Each player has his own story. RG3 was lights out as a rookie, then struggled in 2013 seemingly as a result of tearing his ACL in the 2012 playoffs, a breakdown in his relationship with the Shanaclan, and [insert your other favorite reason here]. His descent continued in 2014, and he frankly looked like a lost quarterback, with this play being perhaps the most damning example.

For Newton, the issue seems to be entirely about a decline in his supporting cast, along with injury issues in 2014. I’m not particularly worried about Newton, who almost seems to make the cut (you’ll see what I mean below) on a technicality. I have little doubt that a healthy Newton with an improved supporting cast — you know, if we ever see that1 — would be a very productive quarterback. Kaepernick, to me, is the real wild card.

Kaepernick’s RANY/A dropped by 0.84 from 2012 to 2013, and then by 1.34 from 2013 to 2014.2 Which made me wonder: how often does a quarterback who is still in his 20s see a decline in RANY/A of at least 0.5 in consecutive years?

Since 1970, it has happened just 19 times, with Kaepernick, Newton, and Griffin being the most recent three. Newton and Griffin are also two of the three youngest, while Kaepernick is more in the middle of things (he was a sneaky old 27 in 2014).3 So what happened to the first 16?

Six of them did not retain their jobs, and you can read about them in this footnote.4 What about the other 10?

QuarterbackYear NTmYr N AgeYr N-2 RANY/AYr N-1 RANY/AYr N RANY/AYr N+1 RANY/A
Colin Kaepernick2014SFO271.620.78-0.56
Cam Newton2014CAR250.72-0.18-0.69
Robert Griffin2014WAS241.53-0.39-0.97
Daunte Culpepper2002MIN252.070.12-0.431.49
Dave Krieg1985SEA271.140.61-0.081.30
Neil O'Donnell1994PIT280.790.28-0.321.24
Neil Lomax1986STL271.690.01-0.890.79
Jim Everett1991RAM281.910.68-0.270.60
Ken O'Brien1987NYJ271.740.670.00-0.06
Jon Kitna2001CIN/SEA290.30-0.78-1.43-0.08
Boomer Esiason1990CIN292.771.480.07-0.09
Trent Dilfer1999TAM5270.30-0.26-0.90-0.74
Mark Malone1987PIT6290.46-0.76-2.19-1.21

There are some promising stories in here. Daunte Culpepper was great at age 23, decliend at age 24, was even worse at age 25, and then was great at age 26 and had a career year at age 27.

Dave Krieg had great efficiency numbers at age 25, pretty good (but worse) ones at age 26, and then struggled at age 27. But at age 28 he had a great season, and he had a great 9-game year at age 30.

Neil O’Donnell was a Pro Bowler in his first full year as a starter at age 26, but took steps backwards at ages 27 and 28. Then, at age 29, he had a career year and made it to the Super Bowl.

Neil Lomax was outstanding at age 25, then had RG3-like slides at ages 26 and 27. Then, at age 28, he had another great season, and followed it up with a great performance at age 29, too.

Jim Everett also took an RG3-like slide: he was unreal at age 26, but below average by age 28. He rebounded at age 29 and was above average during his age 31 and 32 seasons, too.

Ken O’Brien was lights out at age 25, worse at age 26, and then average at age 27. The age 25 year (1985) looks like the outlier, though: he stayed as a roughly league average quarterback from ages 28 through 31.

Jon Kitna looked completely washed up at age 29, but he rebounded with two solid statistical years at ages 30 and 31.

Boomer Esiason was the NFL MVP at age 27, still very good at age 28, and then just average at age 29. He had one more average year, then struggled at age 31 in his final year in Cincinnati, before a mini-resurrection with the Jets.

Trent Dilfer showed steadily decline from ages 25 to 27 during his final three years in Tampa Bay before… not really improving during his first year in Baltimore, despite you know, winning a Super Bowl. He did put up some impressive efficiency numbers over the next couple of seasons in part-time duty, however.

Mark Malone is an example of things not getting much better, but even he still rebounded at age 30 after declining at ages 28 and 29.

So What Does This Post Mean?

Well, let’s start with the obvious: it’s not common for a young quarterback to take consecutive steps backwards, and we have three of them that have done so since 2012. Kaepernick, at least to me, is the most intriguing of the bunch, as it’s harder (at least for me) to really understand what’s going on there. I have a pretty good idea of where Newton’s career is headed, and Griffin seems destined for failure in Washington (and perhaps beyond), while Kaepernick truly appears to be at a crossroads.

The table above presents overwhelmingly positive news if you are a 49ers fan. Could Kaepernick have a revival the way Culpepper did in 2003 and 2004? Could he turn into an above-average quarterback like Lomax or Everett? Eight of the ten quarterbacks who had declines like Kaepernick bounced back the following year. That’s promising.

Of course, it doesn’t mean all that much, either. Kaepernick is an individual, not an amalgamation of historical figures. And his struggles in San Francisco last year were very real, and didn’t appear to be a product of a poor supporting cast. And it’s not as though most of the news for the 49ers has been very positive this offseason, either.

But I guess if there’s one takeaway from this post, it’s this: even if a young quarterback struggles for a couple of years, the odds are in his favor that he’ll bounce back. For Newton, that seems like a safe bet. For Griffin, his ANY/A was so poor that an improvement seems very likely, too. For Kaepernick, the 2015 season looks like a real tipping point in his career, and one I can’t quite get a read on just yet.

  1. Carolina’s projected 2015 offensive line, from left to right: Michael Oher, who may be the worst starting left tackle in the NFL; Andrew Norwell, an undrafted free agent who was a rookie last year; Ryan Kalil, a Pro Bowl center; Trai Turner, a third round pick in 2014; and Mike Remmers, an undrafted free agent in 2012 who has been on six teams so far. At wide receiver, the Panthers have Kelvin Benjamin, who was tied for 2nd in the NFL in drops last year; Jerricho Cotchery, whom the Jets released in 2010 because he looked washed up; Ted Ginn, Jr., who had 14 catches last year; and second round rookie Devin Funchess. []
  2. The NFL ANY/A decreased slightly from 2012 to 2013, but then jumped by 0.26 last year, which is why you might not have noticed the true impact of the declines of Newton and Kaepernick based on just their raw numbers. []
  3. Note that Jon Kitna is the only one of the players on the list to switch teams, moving from the Seahawks to the Bengals. []
  4. Aaron Brooks declined with New Orleans from 2003 to 2005, and then joined the Raiders. He was an even bigger disaster there: he failed to reach 200 pass attempts, but produced career-low numbers and never played again in the NFL after 2006. Don Majkowski and his numbers dropped off with the Packers from ’89 to ’90 and then from ’90 to ’91; he entered ’92 as the starter, but was hurt early in the third game. That allowed Brett Favre to take the job and never look back. The Packers quarterback before the Majik Man also made the cut: Randy Wright saw his RANY/A drop off from ’86 to ’87 and then ’87 to ’88; he never played again in the NFL.

    Steve Grogan saw relatively modest drop offs in his RANY/A from ’79 to ’81; due to the strike and missing three games, he did not hit the 200 attempt cut-off in ’82, but he posted career-high efficiency numbers in ’82 and ’83. He’s our first success story. Pat Haden was excellent in 1977, declined in ’78, and then struggled at quarterback with the Rams in 1979; he lost the job to Vince Ferragamo, but after the ’80 season, Ferragamo went north to Canada. Haden played again in ’81, but posted career-low numbers. Haden started at least half his team’s games in five seasons, and incredibly, his ANY/A decreased in each year. And finally, Archie Manning saw his RANY/A drop from -0.1 in ’73 to -1.6 in ’74 and bottom out to -2.7 in ’75. He then missed all of ’76 due to shoulder surgery, but would turn in the best seasons of his career beginning in the late ’70s. He’s another promising sign, perhaps for Newton in particular, since both have been plagued with weak supporting casts. []

  5. Was on Baltimore in Year N+1. []
  6. Was on San Diego in Year N+1. []

Brad Oremland is a longtime commenter and a fellow football historian. Brad is also a senior NFL writer at Sports Central. There are few who have given as much thought to the history of quarterbacks and quarterback ranking systems as Brad has over the years. You may recall that in April, he gave us a sneak peak at some quarterback rankings. Today, we begin seeing the words behind those numbers, starting with the pre-modern era quarterbacks.

Part I: Pre-Modern Era
Part II: 49-101
Part III: 40-48
Part IV: 31-39
Part V: 21-30

I’ve been studying NFL history throughout my adult life. It’s a journey that began the first time I watched my dad’s copy of NFL’s Greatest Hits on VHS, accelerating when I read Total Football II, and continuing when I began sportswriting over a decade ago.

Something I’ve never done is to publish my list of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history. Sparked by Adam Steele’s crowd-sourcing project here at Football Perspective, I’m finally stepping into the ring. But because I’ve done so much research over the years, this is not a simple list. Instead, I’ll present my choices as a series of articles, highlighting about 10 players per list, and counting down to number one. [click to continue…]


Quarterback Heat Maps

Since my running back heat maps post was so popular, I thought it made sense to perform the same analysis for quarterbacks. So here’s what I did. And as a reminder, BLUE means GOOD or above-average, while RED means BAD, or below-average.

I looked at all quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks (i.e., pass attempts + sacks) in 2014, and then measured on what percent of their dropbacks did each quarterback gain at least 0 yards1, at least 1 yard2, at least 2 yards, etc., up to 10 yards. I also calculated the percentage of runs that went for at least 15+, 20+, 25+, and 30+ yards. [click to continue…]

  1. This is essentially a proxy for percentage of times the quarterback wasn’t sacked. []
  2. This is a decent proxy for completion percentage, or, frankly, an improvement on completion percentage. []

Previously on “take away his X [best/worst]” plays:

In April, I noted that you would need to take away Peyton Manning’s best 19 passes in order to bring his stellar Net Yards per Attempt average to below league average. Today, we look at the reverse question: How many of Derek Carr’s worst dropbacks would we need to erase to bring his NY/A above league average? I’ll give you a moment to think about the answer. [click to continue…]


In 2002, Rich Gannon, a former 4th round pick, led the NFL in passing yards. That year, Tom Brady (6th round), Trent Green (8th round), Aaron Brooks (4th round), and Jeff Garcia (undrafted) were in the top 11 in passing yards, while Jon Kitna (undrafted), Matt Hasselbeck (6th), and Brad Johnson (9th) all gained at least 3,000 passing yards, too.  You can find all that information here.  So in a year where only 17 quarterbacks threw for 3,000 yards, nearly half of them were drafted in the 4th round or later.

Ten years later, the quarterback landscape was very different. Other than Tony Romo, Brady, and Matt Schaub, all of the top 17 leaders in passing yards were drafted inside the top 35. Last year, Brady, Romo, and Russell Wilson were the only quarterbacks in the top 20 in passing yards not taken inside the first 36 picks (#36 was the draft slot for both Bay area quarterbacks, Colin Kaepernick and Derek Carr).

But those are just three isolated years.  How does the trend look over time? Here’s what I did.

1) Convert each player’s draft pick selection to its draft value.

2) For each player with passing yards in a season since 1970, calculate their percentage of league-wide total passing yards.

3) Multiply that number by each player’s draft value. Then sum those values to get a weighted-average of the draft value for each quarterback.

Here are the results: the number on the Y-Axis may not mean much to you in the abstract (it’s the weighted average draft value), but it’s the shape of the curve that’s important.

draft val QBs

As a general rule, the modern passing attack barely resembles what was going on in the early ’70s, but there is at least one exception: an emphasis on quarterbacks that were highly drafted.  For example, an overwhelming number of early draft picks are at the top of the passing charts from 19721  That trend didn’t hold for very long, though.  Then, in the early ’90s, things peaked again for highly drafted quarterback.  In 1994, five of the top seven passers were former top 3 picks, with the other two going in the top 33 selections.

My hunch is that this trend is going to stick around this time: once Brady and Romo retire, there may not be much out there other than Wilson (and perhaps Nick Foles) when it comes to quarterbacks drafted outside of the top 40.  This year, Buffalo, Houston, and Cleveland may be going with quarterbacks that were not highly drafted, but those appear to be short-term solutions, anyway.   And, at least for 2015, we have four top-2 picks that should boost the average. Carson Palmer should be back in Arizona after starting just 6 games last year, while Sam Bradford is a projected starter after missing all of 2014.  And we should also see Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota helping to bring up last year’s average.

  1. Note that for players who went in both the AFL and NFL drafts, I assigned the better pick to them. []

Yesterday, I was a guest on the Wharton Moneyball show on SiriusXM Channel 111 (@BizRadio111), discussing the NFL draft. As always, it was a lot of fun, but the hosts threw me a curveball in the final seconds:

Which will produce the best quarterback from the 2015 Draft — the Jameis Winston/Marcus Mariota group, or the field?

Now I am quite familiar with the value of taking the field in these sort of bets. We are prone to being overconfident in our ability to predict things, especially when it comes to the NFL Draft. But I still said I’d take Winston/Mariota and leave you with everyone else, and be reasonably confident that I would end up with the draft’s best quarterback.

But am I right? How far down the quarterback slots do you have to go in the average draft to find the best QB? Would taking the top two generally be enough?

This is, of course, a question without a clear answer because there is no objective answer to the question “who was the best quarterback in the [__] Draft?” It’s much too early to grade the 2013 or 2014 drafts, and you will get no shortage of debate as to whether Andrew Luck or Russell Wilson is the best quarterback from the 2012 draft. In 2011, Cam Newton was the first overall pick, but Andy Dalton and Colin Kaepernick were the 5th and 6th quarterbacks taken.

In 2010, Sam Bradford does appear to have been the best quarterback from that draft, and should be remembered that way absent Colt McCoy, Tim Tebow, or Jimmy Clausen having a magical career turnaround.

In 2009, getting the top two quarterbacks would give you Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanchez, while the field would give you…. Josh Freeman and Curtis Painter.

In 2008, the top two quarterbacks were Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco. The book is not yet written on which one of them will be remembered as the best, but we can say that both will wind up being better than the field of Chad Henne, Matt Flynn, and Josh Johnson.

In 2007, the quarterback class was… ugly. The top guy will probably go down as one of Trent Edwards (most starts, most wins, most yards), Kevin Kolb (a positive TD/INT ratio!), or Drew Stanton (highest ANY/A but only 12 starts). Although for our purposes, we don’t need to finely split hairs. That’s because it’s clear the top quarterback was not JaMarcus Russell or Brady Quinn, the top two quarterbacks in that draft. Score one for the field.

Say what you want about Jay Cutler, but he was the clear top quarterback of 2006. In fact, he has thrown for more touchdowns than the rest of the class combined! As the 11th overall pick, he doesn’t quite meet the spirit of today’s question, but he is part of the field technically. That’s because Vince Young and Matt Leinart were the 3rd and 10th selections.

We need not spend much time on 2005. It was Aaron Rodgers, the second quarterback selected. Although Rodgers was much closer to the field (Jason Campbell was taken 25th overall, one pick after Rodgers) than being the first pick (Alex Smith).

For 2004, we can at least ignore the pretend Eli Manning/Philip Rivers debate, but that doesn’t help us when Ben Roethlisberger is in the mix, too. Call this one a push between top 2 and the field.

In 2003, it’s easy: it was Carson Palmer, the first overall pick. Nobody else comes close. Well, I guess that depends how you define class: Tony Romo went undrafted that year. Does the field include undrafted quarterbacks?

In 2002, not only is the answer David Garrard, but I think it’s Garrard by a wide margin. Garrard had a winning record, the most yards, the most TDs, and the best ANY/A out of the group with him, Patrick Ramsey, Josh McCown, and the first and third overall picks: David Carr and Joey Harrington. Score another one for the field.

In 2001, it’s Drew Brees, who was the second quarterback selected, albeit 31 picks after Michael Vick.

For 2000, let’s put that one down for the field.

1999 isn’t particularly close: Donovan McNabb made six Pro Bowls and started for 11 years; Daunte Culpepper is the runner up with three and five, respectively. And we know about 1998. So that’s two more for the top two. [click to continue…]


Bryan Frye, owner and operator of the great site nflsgreatest.co.nf, is back for another guest post. You can also view all of Bryan’s guest posts at Football Perspective at this link, and follow him on twitter @LaverneusDingle.

Last week, I posted a quarterback performance metric that accounts for both passing and rushing. The base stat, Total Adjusted Yards per Play, is easy to comprehend and easy to figure out yourself with basic box score data. My original post only included performance that occurred during or after the 2002 season, because I don’t have spike and kneel data going back further than that. For the sake of consistency, I wanted to maintain the same parameters when calculating career values.

Before we get into the tables, I’d like to first briefly talk about what these numbers are and what they are not.

The formula, in case you forgot: [click to continue…]


Teams that select quarterbacks in the first round of the draft generally struggled in the passing department prior year, although not as much as you might think. On average, these teams1 had a Relative ANY/A of -0.71, meaning those teams were 0.71 Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt below average. For reference, that’s right about where the 2014 Bears finished, and Chicago ranked 27th in the NFL in ANY/A last year.

There have been 91 teams that have selected a quarterback in the first round of the regular NFL Draft since 1970; the Tampa Bay Bucs are almost certainly going to be the 92nd.2 Every once in awhile, a good passing team will dip its toes into the quarterback waters and select a passer in the first round. Over this time period, there have been eight teams that had a RANY/A of at least +1.0 and then selected a quarterback in the draft.

The 2005 Packers are not that team. In ’04, Green Bay behind Brett Favre had a RANY/A of +1.42, which didn’t stop the franchise from drafting Aaron Rodgers in the first round in the following draft. But there are four other teams that had an even better RANY/A the year before selecting a quarterback in the first round during this period. Can you name the team with the best RANY/A? [click to continue…]

  1. Since 1970, excluding quarterbacks taken in the supplemental draft, and including the 2015 Bucs. []
  2. Note: Kerry Collins, Tim Couch, and David Carr all were drafted by expansion teams in the first round. These examples are being deliberately excluded in this analysis. []
{ 1 comment }

Bryan Frye, owner and operator of the great site nflsgreatest.co.nf, is back for another guest post. You can also view all of Bryan’s guest posts at Football Perspective at this link, and follow him on twitter @LaverneusDingle.

I spent a few weeks this offseason parsing out quarterback spike and kneel numbers from post-2002 play by play data. Chase published the findings, which I believe are a useful resource when trying to assess a QB’s stats.1 Since I have the data available, I thought it would be good to use it.

Regular readers know Chase uses Adjusted Net Yards per pass Attempt as the primary stat for measuring quarterback performance.2 I am going to do something similar, but I am going to incorporate rushing contribution as well. This is something Chase talked about doing awhile ago, but we didn’t have the kneel or spike data available.3 I’ll call the end product Total Adjusted Yards per Play (TAY/P). The formula, for those curious:4

[Yards + Touchdowns*20 – Interceptions*45 – Fumbles*25 + First Downs*9] / Plays, where

Yards = pass yards + rush yards – sack yards + yards lost on kneels
Touchdowns = pass touchdowns + rush touchdowns
First Downs = (pass first downs + rush first downs) – touchdowns
Plays = pass attempts + sacks + rush attempts – spikes – kneels [click to continue…]

  1. For instance, 180 of Peyton Manning’s 303 rush attempts since 2002 have been kneels. He has lost 185 yard on those plays. Why in the world should we include those in his total output? Similarly, Ben Roethlisberger has spiked the ball 44 times, by far the most in the league since 2002. Why count those 44 “incomplete passes” in his completion rate? []
  2. It’s not perfect, but it’s at least easy to understand and calculate, and is not proprietary like DVOA, ESPN’s QBR, or PFF’s quarterback grades. []
  3. For another thing Chase wrote on combining rushing and passing data — while (gasp) analyzing Tim Tebow — click here. []
  4. I use 25 as the modifier for fumbles based on the idea that a QB fumble is worth roughly -50 yards, and fumble recovery is a 50/50 proposition. []

Quarterback Trivia: Going 1-2 in the NFL Draft

It seems likely that Florida State’s Jameis Winston will be the first pick in the 2015 Draft. And if he isn’t the first pick, that will probably be because Oregon’s Marcus Mariota went first overall.

It’s been three years since Andrew Luck and RG3 went 1-2 at the top of the draft; in fact, Luck is the last quarterback to go first overall, with Jadeveon Clowney and Eric Fisher being selected at the top of the last two drafts. The graph below shows what draft pick was used on the first (in blue) and second (in red) quarterbacks drafted in each year since 1967. [click to continue…]


Brad Oremland is a longtime commenter and a fellow football historian. Brad is also a senior NFL writer at Sports Central. There are few who have given as much thought to the history of quarterbacks and quarterback ranking systems as Brad has over the years. Today, he’s contributed this guest post, but also is asking for your feedback. So please, help Brad and help us, in the comments, with your thoughts.

In recent weeks, Football Perspective has hosted some lively discussions about the greatest quarterbacks of all time. I like to think my approach to these issues is balanced, but it begins with statistics. I am always looking for ways to improve my analysis, and Chase has graciously invited me to post the results of my statistical rating system for quarterbacks.

This is not my personal list of the best quarterbacks in history. My subjective list differs, at time significantly, and I’ll post that next month. The list below is purely statistical, with three notable limitations:

1. It measures regular-season statistics only.

2. It covers the years 1946-2014. The modern quarterback position didn’t really exist prior to the mid 1940s.

2b. QBs who played prior to 1946 are omitted, even if they continued to play after the end of World War II. I don’t want a ranking that shows Sammy Baugh 65th, since it’s missing the first decade of his career. Players like Baugh, Sid Luckman, and Bob Waterfield are deliberately excluded.

3. Only seasons in the NFL, AFL, and AAFC count toward these rankings.

My purpose in posting this list is to ask for help. There are a lot of smart readers and commenters at this site, and I want you to critique my results.

I’m not showing my work yet: I’m not looking for a critique of my process, but of my results. Who’s too high? Who’s too low? You can identify individual players, or patterns. Wherever you think I messed up, I want to hear about it. Please keep in mind, though, that this is purely a stat-based list. It doesn’t represent my opinion, and it’s not slanted toward or against individual players or teams.

But just because this system is unbiased, that doesn’t make it perfect. It is definitely not perfect. But I’m comfortable making subjective adjustments, and that may create blind spots that prevent me from improving the formula. I’m asking you to evaluate the list below and judge where you think it is counterintuitive or inaccurate.

Are players from the ’70s overrated? Are contemporary players underrated? What about players from good teams, and players from bad teams? Are running QBs overrated? Underrated? How about game managers vs. downfield bombers? Is the system fair to them? Are one-year wonders overrated? Are compilers overrated? Players who threw a lot of TDs, a lot of interceptions, players who got sacked a lot? Wherever you think the system is off, I’m eager for your feedback.

Hopefully you find this list interesting, and you can expect a fuller explanation of my rankings in the future, but in the meantime, I appreciate your input and assistance. I included each player’s numerical score, which I realize isn’t in context yet, but it can give you a more precise idea than a simple ranking. Troy Aikman, Donovan McNabb, and Joe Namath, for instance, are effectively tied. Below are the top 125 QBs of the modern era, as ranked by my stat-based system: [click to continue…]


Stafford wins the prize for best quarterback drafted by the Lions since 2000

Stafford wins the prize for best quarterback drafted by the Lions since 2000

There are some teams — the Lions, Jaguars, and Raiders come to mind — that have spent most of the last 15 years looking for their next quarterback of the future. And others that seem to ignore the position in the draft, either because they found a Tom Brady or Tony Romo in a haystack (to go along with some Drew Bledsoe) or organizational indifference to drafting quarterbacks (Chiefs, Saints).

Today, I want to quantify those numbers. At the top of every page at Football Perspective is a link to the Draft Pick Value Calculator, based on the values derived here and shown here. If we assign each draft pick its proper value, and then sum the values used to select quarterbacks by each team over the last 15 years, we can see which teams have devoted the most draft capital on quarterbacks.

Here’s how to read the chart below. Detroit leads the way in draft capital spent. The Lions have only selected five quarterbacks, but spent 78.4 points of Draft Value on passers. That averages out to 15.68 points of draft value spent on each quarterback, the second highest (to Jacksonville) among the 32 teams. The far right column displays each quarterback selected in the draft since 2000. [click to continue…]


I previously looked at points per game by each quarterback in his starts and points per game allowed by each quarterback in his starts. Please check there for the fine print.

Today, we put it all together, for a list of points differential per game in games started by each quarterback.

RkQuarterbackGPFPAPDWLTWin %WinOv.500Last Yr
1Otto Graham8326.7814.4212.36661610.801501955
2Russell Wilson5625.8415.7310.11421400.75282014
3Tom Brady23627.8618.8691815500.7671262014
4Daryle Lamonica9726.6217.898.73702160.753491973
5Roger Staubach13123.8215.318.52963500.733611979
6Aaron Rodgers11428.520.987.52763800.667382014
7Joe Montana18724.6317.357.271335400.711791994
8Terry Bradshaw17722.8515.687.171215600.684651983
9Steve Young15725.7618.846.921025500.65471999
10Bart Starr16722.9916.686.311035860.635451971
10Bob Waterfield2527.9221.846.08151000.651952
11Johnny Unitas19424.3618.535.831246640.649581973
12Len Dawson16723.5117.85.72996080.617391975
13Don Meredith8926.6121.045.56493640.573131968
13Don Strock2324.52195.5216700.69691988
14Danny White10225.2319.735.5673500.657321987
15Peyton Manning28026.9221.535.391909000.6791002014
16Joe Flacco12723.6818.345.34824500.646372014
17Ben Roethlisberger17323.6118.45.211165700.671592014
18Jim McMahon10320.7515.595.16703300.68371994
19Mark Rypien8523.3818.484.89523300.612191995
20Philip Rivers15325.6320.764.86926100.601312014
21Frank Ryan9024.8420.184.67582930.661291968
22Donovan McNabb17722.9218.284.641076910.607382011
23Rich Gannon13824.219.574.63795900.572202004
24Charlie Conerly9221.7817.324.47583310.636251961
25Norm Van Brocklin10526.7422.294.46633840.619251960
26Bob Griese16221.1516.774.38986130.614371980
27Brett Favre32224.0719.754.3219912300.618762010
28Pat Haden6020.2716.054.22372210.625151981
29Kurt Warner12826.6622.464.2755300.586222009
30Ken Stabler15822.5118.424.091035410.655491983
31Jack Kemp11123.319.214.09674130.617261969
32Jim Kelly17723.219.184.031106700.621431996
32Don Heinrich3720.7316.74.03221320.62291962
33Troy Aikman18021.9418.013.941057500.583302000
34Earl Morrall10720.9717.043.93673730.64301975
35Drew Brees21226.6622.763.91238900.58342014
35James Harris4419.0715.23.86261800.59181978
36John Elway25223.2719.433.841628910.645731998
36Rudy Bukich382319.213.79211430.59271966
36Dieter Brock1720.0616.293.7612500.70671985
37David Woodley5821.6717.933.74372010.647171985
37Colin Kaepernick4523.62203.62291600.644132014
37Steve Bono4320.8117.213.6281500.651131998
38Joe Theismann13221.9618.373.59834900.629341985
39Elvis Grbac7322.4118.883.53413200.56292001
40Randall Cunningham14423.0619.563.5855810.594272001
41Bobby Layne13923.7320.243.48835240.612311962
42Jay Fiedler6320.7317.323.41382500.603132004
42Nick Foles252723.683.32151000.652014
43Milt Plum10421.718.523.18564260.567141967
44Tony Romo12925.2822.13.18775200.597252014
45Roman Gabriel15921.318.382.91866670.563201976
46Brad Johnson12521.3818.52.88725300.576192008
46Pat Ryan2123.8120.952.8612900.57131989
46Johnny Lujack2022.5519.72.8513700.6561951
47Andy Dalton6823.1320.512.62402710.596132014
47Tarvaris Jackson3522.2919.692.6171800.486-12011
48Phil Simms16920.317.732.571016800.598331993
49Steve Grogan13822.3819.862.52756300.543121990
49Bobby Thomason4220.3618.052.31192210.464-31957
50Dan Marino25823.0420.752.2915510300.601521999
51Doug Flutie6820.7418.52.24383000.55982004
52Brian Griese8322.0419.862.18453800.54272008
53Y.A. Tittle13924.3922.212.18785650.579221964
54Matt Ryan11524.322.132.17674800.583192014
55George Blanda10725.2323.12.13555110.51941968
56Kordell Stewart8620.1718.052.13503600.581142003
56Bob Lee3217.9715.842.13201200.62581977
57Mike Tomczak7820.7218.672.05453300.577121999
58Steve McNair16321.7219.692.03966700.589292007
59Ken Anderson17821.3119.292.03938500.52281985
59Shaun King2719.5217.522151200.55632004
59Virgil Carter3120.3518.352161500.51611975
60Jake Delhomme10421.7319.781.95614300.587182010
61Craig Morton15419.1417.251.89866710.562191982
61Tommy O'Connell212018.191.8111820.57131961
61Jeff Kemp3020.919.11.8161310.5531991
62Jeff Hostetler8821.0619.311.75553300.625221997
63Ron Jaworski15119.0617.321.74777310.51341989
64Dave Krieg18421.3419.731.61018300.549181996
65Bobby Hebert10321.2619.681.58564700.54491996
66Rex Grossman5121.920.331.57272400.52932011
66Shaun Hill3422.0620.51.56161800.471-22014
67Joe Kapp5219.1517.61.56262330.52931970
68Mark Brunell16121.6120.081.53837800.51652009
69Trent Green11525.0723.581.49565900.487-32008
70John Hadl16921.9620.531.43827890.51241977
71Mark Sanchez7622.2620.921.34413500.53962014
72Jay Schroeder10420.1618.871.3644000.615241994
73Alex Smith10821.2119.941.28584910.54292014
74Andrew Luck5424.823.541.26361800.667182014
75Stan Humphries8721.6220.41.22533400.609191997
76Drew Bledsoe19920.7419.541.21019800.50832006
76Brian Hoyer172220.821.1810700.58832014
76Matt Cavanaugh1920.7919.631.1681100.421-31986
77Eli Manning17823.6222.481.15997900.556202014
77Jim Miller2820.14191.14151300.53622002
78Chad Pennington8720.6419.531.11464100.52952010
79Vince Young5121.5920.491.1312000.608112011
79Gary Cuozzo4118.8517.761.1212000.51211972
79Matt Moore2318.6517.740.91111200.478-12011
79Jim Ninowski3120.0319.190.84151510.501968
80Ed Brown9921.9721.190.78553950.581161964
81Neil O'Donnell10719.8719.120.75584900.54292003
82Dan Fouts17823.7723.030.74898810.50311987
83Gary Danielson6120.4819.750.72283210.467-41988
84Billy Kilmer12120.1719.480.69635710.52561978
85Kyle Orton8220.7320.060.67424000.51222014
86Cam Newton6522.8222.250.57313310.485-22014
87David Garrard7821.6521.090.56403800.51322010
88Bill Nelsen7922.8122.270.54423430.55181972
89Wade Wilson7421.5521.010.54383600.51421998
89John Roach1922.0521.530.5371110.395-41964
90Michael Vick11522.2321.760.47615310.53582014
91Fran Tarkenton25021.420.940.4613011460.532161978
92Warren Moon21321.921.450.4610510800.493-32000
93Billy Wade8622.4722.050.42414320.488-21965
94Bernie Kosar11520.8420.430.42565810.491-21995
95Eric Hipple5820.0519.640.41283000.483-21989
96Matt Schaub9223.6523.240.41474500.51122013
97Jeff Garcia12222.5522.160.39606200.492-22008
98Trent Dilfer11917.8217.520.3635600.52972007
99Bill Kenney7721.7521.490.26344300.442-91988
99Scott Hunter4316.8116.650.16211930.52321977
100Steve Beuerlein10420.2520.10.15485600.462-82003
101Vince Ferragamo5921.5821.460.12302900.50811985
102Charley Johnson12422.2322.190.04595780.50821975
103Jim Plunkett15420.4120.410807400.51961986
103Cody Carlson2019.719.7011900.5521994
104Mark Malone5520.1120.13-0.02243100.436-71988
105Charlie Batch5520.6920.71-0.02253000.455-52012
106Matt Hasselbeck16322.1722.2-0.02857800.52172012
106Steve Ramsey3119.3919.52-0.13141700.452-31976
107Greg Landry9918.9119.18-0.27445230.46-81984
108Bubby Brister7719.3519.66-0.31383900.494-11998
109Bill Munson6618.6819.05-0.36273450.447-71975
110Boomer Esiason17821.8722.25-0.38839500.466-121997
111Babe Parilli10422.1922.59-0.39504770.51431967
111Matt Robinson2022.422.8-0.4101000.501980
112Gus Frerotte9521.3721.8-0.43454910.479-42008
113Steve Bartkowski13120.3820.82-0.44607100.458-111986
114Jim Hart18221.0421.49-0.45879050.492-31983
115Scott Mitchell7322.4122.89-0.48324100.438-92000
115Anthony Wright2017.6518.15-0.581200.4-42005
116Mike Livingston7519.4520.01-0.56314310.42-121979
116Frankie Albert3219.0919.72-0.63141710.453-31952
117Tony Banks7819.1819.83-0.65354300.449-82003
117Tommy Maddox3821.2921.95-0.66162110.434-52005
117Ryan Tannehill4820.6921.35-0.67232500.479-22014
118Joe Namath13222.4223.1-0.67646440.501977
119Matthew Stafford7923.6324.33-0.7354400.443-92014
119Steve Fuller4417.4118.14-0.73202400.455-41986
120Tommy Kramer11420.5521.32-0.77565800.491-21989
121Carson Palmer14522.0122.83-0.82707500.483-52014
122Tony Eason5620.7921.61-0.82312500.55461989
123Marc Wilson6120.3921.25-0.85322900.52531990
124Don Majkowski5719.4420.33-0.89263010.465-41996
124Todd Blackledge3019.8720.77-0.9151500.501989
125John Brodie16421.6322.55-0.91768080.488-41973
126Doug Williams8817.7718.73-0.95424510.483-31989
127Jim Harbaugh14518.6819.68-1687700.469-92000
127Pete Beathard3718.0519.08-1.03181810.501972
128Sonny Jurgensen14921.5422.61-1.07697370.487-41974
129Mike Phipps7317.8219.04-1.22383320.53451980
130Brian Sipe11319.8921.15-1.26575600.50411983
131Ken O'Brien11220.1921.46-1.27506110.451-111993
131Quincy Carter3515.7117-1.29181700.51412004
131George Ratterman2025.2526.55-1.391010.475-11956
131A.J. Feeley1818.8920.22-1.3381000.444-22011
132Bert Jones9921.5622.91-1.35475200.475-51982
133Jay Cutler12122.7424.1-1.36625900.51232014
134Rodney Peete8919.4820.85-1.37464300.51732003
134Kellen Clemens2118.7620.19-1.4381300.381-52013
135Kerry Collins18719.6321.12-1.498410300.449-192011
135Scott Brunner3217.5619.06-1.5131900.406-61983
135Steve Walsh411718.54-1.54212000.51211996
136Joe Ferguson17518.7820.33-1.54809500.457-151989
137Byron Leftwich5117.3118.9-1.59242700.471-32012
138Richard Todd11220.121.69-1.59506110.451-111984
138Damon Huard2717.2218.81-1.59151200.55632008
138Danny Kanell2518.1219.72-1.6101410.42-42003
138Matt Leinart1821.1722.78-1.6181000.444-22011
138Kyle Boller4719.0220.64-1.62202700.426-72011
138Kent Graham3816.9218.61-1.68172100.447-42000
138Kevin Kolb2120.922.71-1.8191200.429-32012
139Jim Everett15820.1922.01-1.82669200.418-261997
139George Shaw2920.5922.41-1.83111620.414-51962
140Chris Chandler15519.7221.68-1.97698600.445-172004
141Bob Avellini511718.98-1.98232800.451-51984
142Tobin Rote11922.8724.87-1.99516440.445-131964
142Vince Evans3918.120.18-2.08142500.359-111995
143Jason Campbell7919.6621.77-2.11324700.405-152013
144Vinny Testaverde21919.521.62-2.119212610.422-342007
145Bob Berry5217.0419.17-2.13202930.413-91974
145Sammy Baugh2219.0521.23-2.18111100.501952
146Jake Plummer14219.7421.94-2.2717100.502006
146Gary Hogeboom3719.3821.59-2.22181900.486-11989
147Tom Flores6722.2824.63-2.34313240.493-11968
147Jack Concannon4516.8219.18-2.36202410.456-41974
147Todd Collins2217.5519.91-2.36111100.502010
148Lynn Dickey11319.722.1-2.4466430.42-181985
148John Friesz3818.7621.18-2.42132500.342-121998
149Neil Lomax10220.6923.12-2.43475320.471-61988
149Johnny Green1922.2124.68-2.4781100.421-31962
150Matt Cassel7220.8223.33-2.51333900.458-62014
150Heath Shuler2217.7320.27-2.5581400.364-61997
151Cotton Davidson5420.3522.94-2.59203310.38-131966
151Adrian Burk4120.122.83-2.73152330.402-81956
151Patrick Ramsey2418.4621.21-2.75101400.417-42005
151Trent Edwards3318.4221.21-2.79141900.424-52010
152Dan Pastorini12218.2721.07-2.8596300.484-41981
153Erik Kramer7019.6922.61-2.93323800.457-61999
153Dave Wilson3116.8419.77-2.94121900.387-71986
154Steve DeBerg14419.622.53-2.94548910.378-351998
154Kelly Holcomb2520.823.76-2.9681700.32-92007
154David Whitehurst3714.8917.95-3.05162010.446-41981
154Cliff Stoudt2120.123.29-3.1991200.429-31988
154Seneca Wallace2217.4120.77-3.3661600.273-102013
154Joe Reed191518.37-3.3791000.474-11979
154Rob Johnson3019.2722.7-3.43121800.4-62002
154Jim Finks4519.5823.04-3.47182700.4-91955
155Jon Kitna12520.8924.46-3.57507500.4-252010
155Mike Boryla1915.5319.11-3.5881100.421-31978
155Christian Ponder3623.527.08-3.58142110.403-72014
156Dave Brown6016.7220.3-3.58263400.433-82000
156Frank Reich2220.1423.73-3.5971500.318-81998
156Dick Wood3420.3223.97-3.65131920.412-61966
156Pete Liske2917.3421-3.66131510.466-21972
157Daunte Culpepper10421.4825.15-3.67436100.413-182009
157Paul McDonald2216.2319.91-3.6881400.364-61984
158Aaron Brooks9220.5324.23-3.7395300.424-142006
158Robert Griffin362326.83-3.83142200.389-82014
158Butch Songin2023.3527.2-3.8581110.425-31962
158Steve Pelluer3017.6321.53-3.992010.317-111989
159Chris Miller9419.4123.34-3.93355900.372-241999
159Josh McCown4918.9822.98-4173200.347-152014
159Zeke Bratkowski4718.5322.6-4.06163010.351-141971
160Ryan Fitzpatrick892024.1-4.1335510.376-222014
161Jim Zorn1062024.12-4.12446200.415-181987
161Charlie Trippi1614.3118.44-4.1351100.313-61952
161Mike Taliaferro3118.122.23-4.13112000.355-91970
161Al Woodall1913.7917.95-4.1651400.263-91973
161Shane Matthews2216.6820.86-4.18111100.502002
161Jake Locker2320.9125.13-4.2291400.391-52014
161Derek Anderson4518.5122.73-4.22202500.444-52014
162Rick Mirer6817.7421.99-4.25244400.353-202003
162Marty Domres3216.4420.72-4.28122000.375-81977
163Josh Freeman6019.7824.08-4.3243600.4-122013
164Norm Snead15819.5923.95-4.35529970.351-471976
165Marc Bulger9821.0825.59-4.51425600.429-142009
166Jack Trudeau5015.4420-4.56193100.38-121994
167Joey Harrington7617.2421.95-4.71265000.342-242007
167Craig Erickson3517.622.34-4.74142100.4-71996
167Billy Joe Tolliver4718.1922.94-4.74153200.319-171999
168Bobby Douglass5317.1921.96-4.77163610.311-201977
169Jeff Blake1002024.82-4.82396100.39-222003
169Don Trull1823.8328.72-4.8941220.278-81969
169Steve Spurrier3816.9221.84-4.92132410.355-111976
169Karl Sweetan1916.8421.79-4.9561030.395-41968
169Sam Bradford4917.5322.55-5.02183010.378-122013
169Ty Detmer2617.7722.81-5.04111500.423-42001
170Tim Couch5916.5921.69-5.1223700.373-152003
170Joe Pisarcik3014.820.17-5.3792100.3-121984
170Steve Dils2717.723.11-5.41101700.37-71988
170Hugh Millen2514.419.92-5.5271800.28-111994
170Chris Simms1714.7620.41-5.6571000.412-32009
170David Archer2317.6523.3-5.6591310.413-41987
170Brandon Weeden2118.2423.95-5.7151600.238-112014
171Lamar McHan7317.8223.73-5.9244720.342-231963
171Tim Tebow1619.8825.81-5.949700.56322011
171Jack Thompson2117.5723.52-5.9541700.19-131984
171Geno Smith2918.6224.59-5.97111800.379-72014
172Jeff George12717.5723.6-6.03478000.37-332001
173Eddie LeBaron8118.1724.31-6.14265230.34-261963
173Dick Shiner2918.7924.93-6.1472110.259-141973
174Mike Pagel5417.0423.24-6.2173610.324-191990
174Al Dorow4421.227.41-6.2192500.432-61962
174Billy Joe Hobert1717.0623.29-6.2441300.235-91999
174Terry Hanratty1815.7222.11-6.3961200.333-61976
174Jacky Lee2316.723.09-6.3971510.326-81969
174John Skelton1717.1223.65-6.538900.471-12012
174Colt McCoy2515.5222.28-6.7671800.28-112014
174Tim Rattay1818.525.28-6.7851300.278-82006
175Chad Henne5318.6225.45-6.83183500.34-172014
175Mike Glennon1819.9426.78-6.8351300.278-82014
175J.P. Losman3315.7922.7-6.91102300.303-132008
175King Hill3020.627.87-7.2772210.25-151968
175Ralph Guglielmi2616.6923.96-7.2771630.327-91963
176David Carr7916.2823.63-7.35235600.291-332007
177Frank Tripucka5020.0627.5-7.44173210.35-151963
177Charlie Frye2314.6122.22-7.6171600.304-92009
177Steve Tensi3419.4727.09-7.62102310.309-131970
177Chuck Long2114.922.67-7.7641700.19-131988
177Kelly Stouffer1612.0620.06-851100.313-61992
178Archie Manning13915.9124.21-8.293510130.263-661984
178Ryan Leaf211523.43-8.4341700.19-132001
178David Klingler2412.6321.42-8.7942000.167-161994
178Bruce Gradkowski2016.0525.05-961400.3-82010
178Jeff Komlo1614.1923.25-9.0621400.125-121981
178Randy Wright3215.0924.34-9.2572500.219-181988
178Blaine Gabbert2715.324.85-9.5652200.185-172013
178John Reaves1713.4123.65-10.2441300.235-91987
178JaMarcus Russell2514.4824.72-10.2471800.28-112009
178Chris Weinke2013.623.95-10.3521800.1-162007
178Dennis Shaw3715.4626.03-10.5782720.243-191972
178Kent Nix1816.527.17-10.6741400.222-101972
178Mickey Slaughter192131.74-10.7421520.158-131966
178Brady Quinn201525.85-10.8541600.2-122012
178Doug Pederson1710.5922.35-11.7631400.176-112000
178Timm Rosenbach2014.626.4-11.851500.25-101992
178Gary Huff289.5721.39-11.8272100.25-141977
178Derek Carr1615.8128.25-12.4431300.188-102014
178Randy Johnson4915.5528.45-12.9103810.214-281976
178Akili Smith1710.7624.76-1431400.176-112002

Again, I’m short on time, so I will leave the commentary to you guys.


Please see yesterday’s post for the fine print. The table below shows the average points per game allowed in games started by each quarterback, minimum 15 games (but the ranks only count for quarterbacks with 50 or more starts).

RkQuarterbackGPAWLTWin %WinOv.500Last Yr
1Otto Graham8314.42661610.801501955
1James Harris4415.2261800.59181978
2Roger Staubach13115.31963500.733611979
3Jim McMahon10315.59703300.68371994
4Terry Bradshaw17715.681215600.684651983
5Russell Wilson5615.73421400.75282014
5Bob Lee3215.84201200.62581977
6Pat Haden6016.05372210.625151981
6Dieter Brock1716.2912500.70671985
6Scott Hunter4316.65211930.52321977
7Bart Starr16716.681035860.635451971
7Don Heinrich3716.7221320.62291962
8Bob Griese16216.77986130.614371980
8Quincy Carter3517181700.51412004
9Earl Morrall10717.04673730.64301975
9Steve Bono4317.21281500.651131998
10Craig Morton15417.25866710.562191982
11Charlie Conerly9217.32583310.636251961
12Jay Fiedler6317.32382500.603132004
13Ron Jaworski15117.32777310.51341989
14Joe Montana18717.351335400.711791994
14Shaun King2717.52151200.55632004
15Trent Dilfer11917.52635600.52972007
16Joe Kapp5217.6262330.52931970
17Phil Simms16917.731016800.598331993
17Matt Moore2317.74111200.478-12011
17Gary Cuozzo4117.76212000.51211972
18Len Dawson16717.8996080.617391975
19Daryle Lamonica9717.89702160.753491973
20David Woodley5817.93372010.647171985
20David Whitehurst3717.95162010.446-41981
20Al Woodall1917.9551400.263-91973
21Troy Aikman18018.011057500.583302000
22Kordell Stewart8618.05503600.581142003
22Bobby Thomason4218.05192210.464-31957
22Steve Fuller4418.14202400.455-41986
22Anthony Wright2018.1581200.4-42005
22Tommy O'Connell2118.1911820.57131961
23Donovan McNabb17718.281076910.607382011
24Joe Flacco12718.34824500.646372014
24Virgil Carter3118.35161500.51611975
24Joe Reed1918.3791000.474-11979
25Joe Theismann13218.37834900.629341985
26Roman Gabriel15918.38866670.563201976
27Ben Roethlisberger17318.41165700.671592014
28Ken Stabler15818.421035410.655491983
28Charlie Trippi1618.4451100.313-61952
29Mark Rypien8518.48523300.612191995
30Doug Flutie6818.5383000.55982004
31Brad Johnson12518.5725300.576192008
32Milt Plum10418.52564260.567141967
33Johnny Unitas19418.531246640.649581973
33Steve Walsh4118.54212000.51211996
33Kent Graham3818.61172100.447-42000
34Mike Tomczak7818.67453300.577121999
35Doug Williams8818.73424510.483-31989
35Damon Huard2718.81151200.55632008
36Steve Young15718.841025500.65471999
37Tom Brady23618.861815500.7671262014
38Jay Schroeder10418.87644000.615241994
39Elvis Grbac7318.88413200.56292001
40Byron Leftwich5118.9242700.471-32012
41Bob Avellini5118.98232800.451-51984
41Don Strock231916700.69691988
41Jim Miller2819151300.53622002
42Mike Phipps7319.04383320.53451980
43Bill Munson6619.05273450.447-71975
43Scott Brunner3219.06131900.406-61983
43Pete Beathard3719.08181810.501972
43Jeff Kemp3019.1161310.5531991
43Mike Boryla1919.1181100.421-31978
44Neil O'Donnell10719.12584900.54292003
45Bob Berry5219.17202930.413-91974
46Jim Kelly17719.181106700.621431996
46Jack Concannon4519.18202410.456-41974
47Greg Landry9919.18445230.46-81984
47Jim Ninowski3119.19151510.501968
48Jack Kemp11119.21674130.617261969
48Rudy Bukich3819.21211430.59271966
49Ken Anderson17819.29938500.52281985
50Jeff Hostetler8819.31553300.625221997
51John Elway25219.431628910.645731998
52Billy Kilmer12119.48635710.52561978
52Steve Ramsey3119.52141700.452-31976
53Chad Pennington8719.53464100.52952010
54Drew Bledsoe19919.541019800.50832006
55Randall Cunningham14419.56855810.594272001
56Rich Gannon13819.57795900.572202004
56Matt Cavanaugh1919.6381100.421-31986
57Eric Hipple5819.64283000.483-21989
58Bubby Brister7719.66383900.494-11998
59Jim Harbaugh14519.68687700.469-92000
60Bobby Hebert10319.68564700.54491996
60Tarvaris Jackson3519.69171800.486-12011
61Steve McNair16319.69966700.589292007
61Johnny Lujack2019.713700.6561951
61Cody Carlson2019.711900.5521994
61Frankie Albert3219.72141710.453-31952
61Danny Kanell2519.72101410.42-42003
62Danny White10219.73673500.657321987
63Dave Krieg18419.731018300.549181996
64Gary Danielson6119.75283210.467-41988
65Brett Favre32219.7519912300.618762010
65Dave Wilson3119.77121900.387-71986
66Jake Delhomme10419.78614300.587182010
67Tony Banks7819.83354300.449-82003
68Brian Griese8319.86453800.54272008
69Steve Grogan13819.86756300.543121990
69Todd Collins2219.91111100.502010
69Paul McDonald2219.9181400.364-61984
69Hugh Millen2519.9271800.28-111994
70Alex Smith10819.94584910.54292014
71Jack Trudeau5020193100.38-121994
71Colin Kaepernick4520291600.644132014
72Mike Livingston7520.01314310.42-121979
73Kyle Orton8220.06424000.51222014
73Kelly Stouffer1620.0651100.313-61992
74Mark Brunell16120.08837800.51652009
75Steve Beuerlein10420.1485600.462-82003
76Mark Malone5520.13243100.436-71988
76Joe Pisarcik3020.1792100.3-121984
77Frank Ryan9020.18582930.661291968
77Vince Evans3920.18142500.359-111995
77Kellen Clemens2120.1981300.381-52013
77A.J. Feeley1820.2281000.444-22011
78Bobby Layne13920.24835240.612311962
78Heath Shuler2220.2781400.364-61997
79Dave Brown6020.3263400.433-82000
80Joe Ferguson17520.33809500.457-151989
81Rex Grossman5120.33272400.52932011
82Don Majkowski5720.33263010.465-41996
83Stan Humphries8720.4533400.609191997
84Jim Plunkett15420.41807400.51961986
84Chris Simms1720.4171000.412-32009
85Bernie Kosar11520.43565810.491-21995
86Vince Young5120.49312000.608112011
86Shaun Hill3420.5161800.471-22014
87Andy Dalton6820.51402710.596132014
88John Hadl16920.53827890.51241977
88Kyle Boller4720.64202700.426-72011
89Charlie Batch5520.71253000.455-52012
89Marty Domres3220.72122000.375-81977
90Dan Marino25820.7515510300.601521999
91Philip Rivers15320.76926100.601312014
91Todd Blackledge3020.77151500.501989
91Seneca Wallace2220.7761600.273-102013
92Steve Bartkowski13120.82607100.458-111986
92Brian Hoyer1720.8210700.58832014
93Rodney Peete8920.85464300.51732003
93Shane Matthews2220.86111100.502002
94Mark Sanchez7620.92413500.53962014
95Fran Tarkenton25020.9413011460.532161978
95Pat Ryan2120.9512900.57131989
96Aaron Rodgers11420.98763800.667382014
96Pete Liske2921131510.466-21972
97Wade Wilson7421.01383600.51421998
98Don Meredith8921.04493640.573131968
99Dan Pastorini12221.07596300.484-41981
100David Garrard7821.09403800.51322010
101Kerry Collins18721.128410300.449-192011
102Brian Sipe11321.15575600.50411983
102John Friesz3821.18132500.342-121998
103Ed Brown9921.19553950.581161964
103Patrick Ramsey2421.21101400.417-42005
103Trent Edwards3321.21141900.424-52010
103Sammy Baugh2221.23111100.501952
104Marc Wilson6121.25322900.52531990
105Tommy Kramer11421.32565800.491-21989
105Ryan Tannehill4821.35232500.479-22014
105Gary Huff2821.3972100.25-141977
105David Klingler2421.4242000.167-161994
106Warren Moon21321.4510510800.493-32000
107Ken O'Brien11221.46506110.451-111993
108Vince Ferragamo5921.46302900.50811985
109Bill Kenney7721.49344300.442-91988
110Jim Hart18221.49879050.492-31983
110John Roach1921.5371110.395-41964
111Peyton Manning28021.531909000.6791002014
111Steve Pelluer3021.5392010.317-111989
111Gary Hogeboom3721.59181900.486-11989
112Tony Eason5621.61312500.55461989
113Vinny Testaverde21921.629212610.422-342007
114Chris Chandler15521.68698600.445-172004
115Richard Todd11221.69506110.451-111984
116Tim Couch5921.69223700.373-152003
117Michael Vick11521.76615310.53582014
118Jason Campbell7921.77324700.405-152013
118Karl Sweetan1921.7961030.395-41968
119Gus Frerotte9521.8454910.479-42008
119Bob Waterfield2521.84151000.651952
119Steve Spurrier3821.84132410.355-111976
120Jake Plummer14221.94717100.502006
121Joey Harrington7621.95265000.342-242007
121Tommy Maddox3821.95162110.434-52005
122Bobby Douglass5321.96163610.311-201977
123Rick Mirer6821.99244400.353-202003
124Jim Everett15822.01669200.418-261997
125Billy Wade8622.05414320.488-21965
126Lynn Dickey11322.1466430.42-181985
127Tony Romo12922.1775200.597252014
127Terry Hanratty1822.1161200.333-61976
128Matt Ryan11522.13674800.583192014
129Jeff Garcia12222.16606200.492-22008
130Charley Johnson12422.19595780.50821975
131Matt Hasselbeck16322.2857800.52172012
132Y.A. Tittle13922.21785650.579221964
132Charlie Frye2322.2271600.304-92009
132Mike Taliaferro3122.23112000.355-91970
133Cam Newton6522.25313310.485-22014
134Boomer Esiason17822.25839500.466-121997
135Bill Nelsen7922.27423430.55181972
135Colt McCoy2522.2871800.28-112014
136Norm Van Brocklin10522.29633840.619251960
136Craig Erickson3522.34142100.4-71996
136Doug Pederson1722.3531400.176-112000
136George Shaw2922.41111620.414-51962
137Kurt Warner12822.46755300.586222009
138Eli Manning17822.48997900.556202014
139Steve DeBerg14422.53548910.378-351998
140John Brodie16422.55768080.488-41973
140Sam Bradford4922.55183010.378-122013
141Babe Parilli10422.59504770.51431967
141Zeke Bratkowski4722.6163010.351-141971
142Sonny Jurgensen14922.61697370.487-41974
143Erik Kramer7022.61323800.457-61999
143Chuck Long2122.6741700.19-131988
143J.P. Losman3322.7102300.303-132008
143Rob Johnson3022.7121800.4-62002
143Kevin Kolb2122.7191200.429-32012
143Derek Anderson4522.73202500.444-52014
144Drew Brees21222.761238900.58342014
144Matt Leinart1822.7881000.444-22011
144Matt Robinson2022.8101000.501980
144Ty Detmer2622.81111500.423-42001
144Adrian Burk4122.83152330.402-81956
145Carson Palmer14522.83707500.483-52014
146Scott Mitchell7322.89324100.438-92000
147Bert Jones9922.91475200.475-51982
147Billy Joe Tolliver4722.94153200.319-171999
148Cotton Davidson5422.94203310.38-131966
148Josh McCown4922.98173200.347-152014
149Dan Fouts17823.03898810.50311987
149Jim Finks4523.04182700.4-91955
149Jacky Lee2323.0971510.326-81969
150Joe Namath13223.1646440.501977
151George Blanda10723.1555110.51941968
151Steve Dils2723.11101700.37-71988
152Neil Lomax10223.12475320.471-61988
153Matt Schaub9223.24474500.51122013
154Mike Pagel5423.24173610.324-191990
154Jeff Komlo1623.2521400.125-121981
154Cliff Stoudt2123.2991200.429-31988
154Billy Joe Hobert1723.2941300.235-91999
154David Archer2323.391310.413-41987
155Matt Cassel7223.33333900.458-62014
156Chris Miller9423.34355900.372-241999
156Ryan Leaf2123.4341700.19-132001
156Jack Thompson2123.5241700.19-131984
157Andrew Luck5423.54361800.667182014
158Trent Green11523.58565900.487-32008
159Jeff George12723.6478000.37-332001
160David Carr7923.63235600.291-332007
160John Skelton1723.658900.471-12012
160John Reaves1723.6541300.235-91987
160Nick Foles2523.68151000.652014
161Lamar McHan7323.73244720.342-231963
161Frank Reich2223.7371500.318-81998
161Kelly Holcomb2523.7681700.32-92007
162Norm Snead15823.95529970.351-471976
162Chris Weinke2023.9521800.1-162007
162Brandon Weeden2123.9551600.238-112014
162Ralph Guglielmi2623.9671630.327-91963
162Dick Wood3423.97131920.412-61966
163Josh Freeman6024.08243600.4-122013
164Jay Cutler12124.1625900.51232014
165Ryan Fitzpatrick8924.1335510.376-222014
166Jim Zorn10624.12446200.415-181987
167Archie Manning13924.213510130.263-661984
168Aaron Brooks9224.23395300.424-142006
169Eddie LeBaron8124.31265230.34-261963
170Matthew Stafford7924.33354400.443-92014
170Randy Wright3224.3472500.219-181988
171Jon Kitna12524.46507500.4-252010
171Geno Smith2924.59111800.379-72014
172Tom Flores6724.63313240.493-11968
172Johnny Green1924.6881100.421-31962
172JaMarcus Russell2524.7271800.28-112009
172Akili Smith1724.7631400.176-112002
173Jeff Blake10024.82396100.39-222003
173Blaine Gabbert2724.8552200.185-172013
174Tobin Rote11924.87516440.445-131964
174Dick Shiner2924.9372110.259-141973
174Bruce Gradkowski2025.0561400.3-82010
174Jake Locker2325.1391400.391-52014
175Daunte Culpepper10425.15436100.413-182009
175Tim Rattay1825.2851300.278-82006
176Chad Henne5325.45183500.34-172014
177Marc Bulger9825.59425600.429-142009
177Tim Tebow1625.819700.56322011
177Brady Quinn2025.8541600.2-122012
177Dennis Shaw3726.0382720.243-191972
177Timm Rosenbach2026.451500.25-101992
177George Ratterman2026.5591010.475-11956
177Mike Glennon1826.7851300.278-82014
177Robert Griffin3626.83142200.389-82014
177Christian Ponder3627.08142110.403-72014
177Steve Tensi3427.09102310.309-131970
177Kent Nix1827.1741400.222-101972
177Butch Songin2027.281110.425-31962
177Al Dorow4427.41192500.432-61962
178Frank Tripucka5027.5173210.35-151963
178King Hill3027.8772210.25-151968
178Derek Carr1628.2531300.188-102014
178Randy Johnson4928.45103810.214-281976
178Don Trull1828.7241220.278-81969
178Mickey Slaughter1931.7421520.158-131966

Again, I will leave the commentary to you guys.


Aaron Rodgers has started 114 games (including playoffs) in his career. In those games, the Packers have averaged 28.5 points per game (including non-offensive scores), the highest average for any quarterback in his team’s starts in NFL history.

The table below shows the PPG average in each quarterback’s starts for all quarterbacks with at least 15 starts. However, since 15 is a pretty low cut-off, I only ranked players with 50 starts; if a player had fewer than 50 starts, I just gave him the same rank as the player above him in the table.

Here’s how to read the table below. Rodgers has started 114 games, his team has scored 28.5 points per game during those games, and he has produced a 76-38-0 record. That translates to a 0.667 winning percentage, and Rodgers is 38 games over 0.500.

RkQuarterbackGPFWLTWin %WinOv.500Last Yr
1Aaron Rodgers11428.5763800.667382014
1Bob Waterfield2527.92151000.651952
2Tom Brady23627.861815500.7671262014
2Nick Foles2527151000.652014
3Peyton Manning28026.921909000.6791002014
4Otto Graham8326.78661610.801501955
5Norm Van Brocklin10526.74633840.619251960
6Kurt Warner12826.66755300.586222009
7Drew Brees21226.661238900.58342014
8Daryle Lamonica9726.62702160.753491973
9Don Meredith8926.61493640.573131968
10Russell Wilson5625.84421400.75282014
11Steve Young15725.761025500.65471999
12Philip Rivers15325.63926100.601312014
13Tony Romo12925.28775200.597252014
13George Ratterman2025.2591010.475-11956
14George Blanda10725.23555110.51941968
15Danny White10225.23673500.657321987
16Trent Green11525.07565900.487-32008
17Frank Ryan9024.84582930.661291968
18Andrew Luck5424.8361800.667182014
19Joe Montana18724.631335400.711791994
19Don Strock2324.5216700.69691988
20Y.A. Tittle13924.39785650.579221964
21Johnny Unitas19424.361246640.649581973
22Matt Ryan11524.3674800.583192014
23Rich Gannon13824.2795900.572202004
24Brett Favre32224.0719912300.618762010
24Don Trull1823.8341220.278-81969
25Roger Staubach13123.82963500.733611979
25Pat Ryan2123.8112900.57131989
26Dan Fouts17823.77898810.50311987
27Bobby Layne13923.73835240.612311962
28Joe Flacco12723.68824500.646372014
29Matt Schaub9223.65474500.51122013
30Matthew Stafford7923.63354400.443-92014
31Eli Manning17823.62997900.556202014
31Colin Kaepernick4523.62291600.644132014
32Ben Roethlisberger17323.611165700.671592014
33Len Dawson16723.51996080.617391975
33Christian Ponder3623.5142110.403-72014
34Mark Rypien8523.38523300.612191995
34Butch Songin2023.3581110.425-31962
35Jack Kemp11123.3674130.617261969
36John Elway25223.271628910.645731998
37Jim Kelly17723.21106700.621431996
38Andy Dalton6823.13402710.596132014
39Randall Cunningham14423.06855810.594272001
40Dan Marino25823.0415510300.601521999
40Rudy Bukich3823211430.59271966
40Robert Griffin3623142200.389-82014
41Bart Starr16722.991035860.635451971
42Donovan McNabb17722.921076910.607382011
43Tobin Rote11922.87516440.445-131964
44Terry Bradshaw17722.851215600.684651983
45Cam Newton6522.82313310.485-22014
46Bill Nelsen7922.81423430.55181972
47Jay Cutler12122.74625900.51232014
47Johnny Lujack2022.5513700.6561951
48Jeff Garcia12222.55606200.492-22008
49Ken Stabler15822.511035410.655491983
50Billy Wade8622.47414320.488-21965
51Joe Namath13222.42646440.501977
52Elvis Grbac7322.41413200.56292001
53Scott Mitchell7322.41324100.438-92000
53Matt Robinson2022.4101000.501980
54Steve Grogan13822.38756300.543121990
54Tarvaris Jackson3522.29171800.486-12011
55Tom Flores6722.28313240.493-11968
56Mark Sanchez7622.26413500.53962014
57Michael Vick11522.23615310.53582014
58Charley Johnson12422.23595780.50821975
58Johnny Green1922.2181100.421-31962
59Babe Parilli10422.19504770.51431967
60Matt Hasselbeck16322.17857800.52172012
60Shaun Hill3422.06161800.471-22014
60John Roach1922.0571110.395-41964
61Brian Griese8322.04453800.54272008
62Carson Palmer14522.01707500.483-52014
62Brian Hoyer172210700.58832014
63Ed Brown9921.97553950.581161964
64John Hadl16921.96827890.51241977
65Joe Theismann13221.96834900.629341985
66Troy Aikman18021.941057500.583302000
67Rex Grossman5121.9272400.52932011
68Warren Moon21321.910510800.493-32000
69Boomer Esiason17821.87839500.466-121997
70Charlie Conerly9221.78583310.636251961
71Bill Kenney7721.75344300.442-91988
72Jake Delhomme10421.73614300.587182010
73Steve McNair16321.72966700.589292007
74Milt Plum10421.7564260.567141967
75David Woodley5821.67372010.647171985
76David Garrard7821.65403800.51322010
77John Brodie16421.63768080.488-41973
78Stan Humphries8721.62533400.609191997
79Mark Brunell16121.61837800.51652009
80Vince Young5121.59312000.608112011
81Vince Ferragamo5921.58302900.50811985
82Bert Jones9921.56475200.475-51982
83Wade Wilson7421.55383600.51421998
84Sonny Jurgensen14921.54697370.487-41974
85Daunte Culpepper10421.48436100.413-182009
86Fran Tarkenton25021.413011460.532161978
87Brad Johnson12521.38725300.576192008
88Gus Frerotte9521.37454910.479-42008
89Dave Krieg18421.341018300.549181996
90Ken Anderson17821.31938500.52281985
91Roman Gabriel15921.3866670.563201976
91Tommy Maddox3821.29162110.434-52005
92Bobby Hebert10321.26564700.54491996
93Alex Smith10821.21584910.54292014
93Al Dorow4421.2192500.432-61962
93Matt Leinart1821.1781000.444-22011
94Bob Griese16221.15986130.614371980
95Marc Bulger9821.08425600.429-142009
96Jeff Hostetler8821.06553300.625221997
97Jim Hart18221.04879050.492-31983
97Mickey Slaughter192121520.158-131966
98Earl Morrall10720.97673730.64301975
98Jake Locker2320.9191400.391-52014
98Kevin Kolb2120.991200.429-32012
98Jeff Kemp3020.9161310.5531991
99Jon Kitna12520.89507500.4-252010
100Bernie Kosar11520.84565810.491-21995
101Matt Cassel7220.82333900.458-62014
101Steve Bono4320.81281500.651131998
101Kelly Holcomb2520.881700.32-92007
101Matt Cavanaugh1920.7981100.421-31986
102Tony Eason5620.79312500.55461989
103Jim McMahon10320.75703300.68371994
104Drew Bledsoe19920.741019800.50832006
105Doug Flutie6820.74383000.55982004
106Kyle Orton8220.73424000.51222014
107Jay Fiedler6320.73382500.603132004
107Don Heinrich3720.73221320.62291962
108Mike Tomczak7820.72453300.577121999
109Charlie Batch5520.69253000.455-52012
109Ryan Tannehill4820.69232500.479-22014
110Neil Lomax10220.69475320.471-61988
111Chad Pennington8720.64464100.52952010
111King Hill3020.672210.25-151968
111George Shaw2920.59111620.414-51962
112Tommy Kramer11420.55565800.491-21989
113Aaron Brooks9220.53395300.424-142006
114Gary Danielson6120.48283210.467-41988
115Jim Plunkett15420.41807400.51961986
116Marc Wilson6120.39322900.52531990
117Steve Bartkowski13120.38607100.458-111986
117Bobby Thomason4220.36192210.464-31957
117Virgil Carter3120.35161500.51611975
118Cotton Davidson5420.35203310.38-131966
118Dick Wood3420.32131920.412-61966
119Phil Simms16920.31016800.598331993
120Pat Haden6020.27372210.625151981
121Steve Beuerlein10420.25485600.462-82003
122Jim Everett15820.19669200.418-261997
123Ken O'Brien11220.19506110.451-111993
124Kordell Stewart8620.17503600.581142003
125Billy Kilmer12120.17635710.52561978
126Jay Schroeder10420.16644000.615241994
126Jim Miller2820.14151300.53622002
126Frank Reich2220.1471500.318-81998
127Mark Malone5520.11243100.436-71988
128Richard Todd11220.1506110.451-111984
128Adrian Burk4120.1152330.402-81956
128Cliff Stoudt2120.191200.429-31988
129Frank Tripucka5020.06173210.35-151963
129Dieter Brock1720.0612500.70671985
130Eric Hipple5820.05283000.483-21989
130Jim Ninowski3120.03151510.501968
131Jim Zorn10620446200.415-181987
132Jeff Blake10020396100.39-222003
133Ryan Fitzpatrick8920335510.376-222014
133Tommy O'Connell212011820.57131961
133Mike Glennon1819.9451300.278-82014
134Brian Sipe11319.89575600.50411983
134Tim Tebow1619.889700.56322011
135Neil O'Donnell10719.87584900.54292003
135Todd Blackledge3019.87151500.501989
136Josh Freeman6019.78243600.4-122013
137Jake Plummer14219.74717100.502006
138Chris Chandler15519.72698600.445-172004
138Cody Carlson2019.711900.5521994
139Lynn Dickey11319.7466430.42-181985
140Erik Kramer7019.69323800.457-61999
141Jason Campbell7919.66324700.405-152013
142Kerry Collins18719.638410300.449-192011
143Steve DeBerg14419.6548910.378-351998
144Norm Snead15819.59529970.351-471976
144Jim Finks4519.58182700.4-91955
144Shaun King2719.52151200.55632004
145Vinny Testaverde21919.59212610.422-342007
146Rodney Peete8919.48464300.51732003
146Steve Tensi3419.47102310.309-131970
147Mike Livingston7519.45314310.42-121979
148Don Majkowski5719.44263010.465-41996
149Chris Miller9419.41355900.372-241999
149Steve Ramsey3119.39141700.452-31976
149Gary Hogeboom3719.38181900.486-11989
150Bubby Brister7719.35383900.494-11998
150Rob Johnson3019.27121800.4-62002
151Tony Banks7819.18354300.449-82003
152Joe Kapp5219.15262330.52931970
153Craig Morton15419.14866710.562191982
153Frankie Albert3219.09141710.453-31952
153James Harris4419.07261800.59181978
154Ron Jaworski15119.06777310.51341989
154Sammy Baugh2219.05111100.501952
154Kyle Boller4719.02202700.426-72011
154Josh McCown4918.98173200.347-152014
155Greg Landry9918.91445230.46-81984
155A.J. Feeley1818.8981000.444-22011
155Gary Cuozzo4118.85212000.51211972
155Dick Shiner2918.7972110.259-141973
156Joe Ferguson17518.78809500.457-151989
156John Friesz3818.76132500.342-121998
156Kellen Clemens2118.7681300.381-52013
157Bill Munson6618.68273450.447-71975
158Jim Harbaugh14518.68687700.469-92000
158Matt Moore2318.65111200.478-12011
159Chad Henne5318.62183500.34-172014
159Geno Smith2918.62111800.379-72014
159Zeke Bratkowski4718.53163010.351-141971
159Derek Anderson4518.51202500.444-52014
159Tim Rattay1818.551300.278-82006
159Patrick Ramsey2418.46101400.417-42005
159Trent Edwards3318.42141900.424-52010
160Dan Pastorini12218.27596300.484-41981
160Brandon Weeden2118.2451600.238-112014
160Billy Joe Tolliver4718.19153200.319-171999
161Eddie LeBaron8118.17265230.34-261963
161Danny Kanell2518.12101410.42-42003
161Vince Evans3918.1142500.359-111995
161Mike Taliaferro3118.1112000.355-91970
161Pete Beathard3718.05181810.501972
161Bob Lee3217.97201200.62581977
162Trent Dilfer11917.82635600.52972007
163Mike Phipps7317.82383320.53451980
164Lamar McHan7317.82244720.342-231963
165Doug Williams8817.77424510.483-31989
165Ty Detmer2617.77111500.423-42001
166Rick Mirer6817.74244400.353-202003
166Heath Shuler2217.7381400.364-61997
166Steve Dils2717.7101700.37-71988
166David Archer2317.6591310.413-41987
166Anthony Wright2017.6581200.4-42005
166Steve Pelluer3017.6392010.317-111989
166Craig Erickson3517.6142100.4-71996
166Jack Thompson2117.5741700.19-131984
167Jeff George12717.57478000.37-332001
167Scott Brunner3217.56131900.406-61983
167Todd Collins2217.55111100.502010
167Sam Bradford4917.53183010.378-122013
167Steve Fuller4417.41202400.455-41986
167Seneca Wallace2217.4161600.273-102013
167Pete Liske2917.34131510.466-21972
168Byron Leftwich5117.31242700.471-32012
169Joey Harrington7617.24265000.342-242007
169Damon Huard2717.22151200.55632008
170Bobby Douglass5317.19163610.311-201977
170John Skelton1717.128900.471-12012
170Billy Joe Hobert1717.0641300.235-91999
171Bob Berry5217.04202930.413-91974
172Mike Pagel5417.04173610.324-191990
173Bob Avellini5117232800.451-51984
173Steve Walsh4117212000.51211996
173Kent Graham3816.92172100.447-42000
173Steve Spurrier3816.92132410.355-111976
173Karl Sweetan1916.8461030.395-41968
173Dave Wilson3116.84121900.387-71986
173Jack Concannon4516.82202410.456-41974
173Scott Hunter4316.81211930.52321977
174Dave Brown6016.72263400.433-82000
174Jacky Lee2316.771510.326-81969
174Ralph Guglielmi2616.6971630.327-91963
174Shane Matthews2216.68111100.502002
175Tim Couch5916.59223700.373-152003
175Kent Nix1816.541400.222-101972
175Marty Domres3216.44122000.375-81977
176David Carr7916.28235600.291-332007
176Paul McDonald2216.2381400.364-61984
176Bruce Gradkowski2016.0561400.3-82010
177Archie Manning13915.913510130.263-661984
177Derek Carr1615.8131300.188-102014
177J.P. Losman3315.79102300.303-132008
177Terry Hanratty1815.7261200.333-61976
177Quincy Carter3515.71181700.51412004
177Randy Johnson4915.55103810.214-281976
177Mike Boryla1915.5381100.421-31978
177Colt McCoy2515.5271800.28-112014
177Dennis Shaw3715.4682720.243-191972
178Jack Trudeau5015.44193100.38-121994
178Blaine Gabbert2715.352200.185-172013
178Randy Wright3215.0972500.219-181988
178Ryan Leaf211541700.19-132001
178Brady Quinn201541600.2-122012
178Joe Reed191591000.474-11979
178Chuck Long2114.941700.19-131988
178David Whitehurst3714.89162010.446-41981
178Joe Pisarcik3014.892100.3-121984
178Chris Simms1714.7671000.412-32009
178Charlie Frye2314.6171600.304-92009
178Timm Rosenbach2014.651500.25-101992
178JaMarcus Russell2514.4871800.28-112009
178Hugh Millen2514.471800.28-111994
178Charlie Trippi1614.3151100.313-61952
178Jeff Komlo1614.1921400.125-121981
178Al Woodall1913.7951400.263-91973
178Chris Weinke2013.621800.1-162007
178John Reaves1713.4141300.235-91987
178David Klingler2412.6342000.167-161994
178Kelly Stouffer1612.0651100.313-61992
178Akili Smith1710.7631400.176-112002
178Doug Pederson1710.5931400.176-112000
178Gary Huff289.5772100.25-141977

I’m again short on time, so I will leave the commentary to you guys, and all the Rams fans out there.


On Tuesday, I looked at quarterback records when their team allows 21 or more points.  Today, a look at records when scoring 21+ points.  I’m short on time, so today’s post will just be a quick data dump.  I leave the comments up to you!

Here’s how to read the table below. Tom Brady has played in 169 games (including playoffs) where his team has scored 21+ points, and he’s posted a 155-14-0 record in those games (translating to a 0.917 winning percentage). On average, teams win about 75% of their games when they score 21 or more points; as a result, we would have expected Brady to win 126.75 games, all else being equal. Since he’s won 155, this means he has won 28.25 more games than expected, the most in NFL history. In general, one might translate this to something like “this quarterback had a good defense.” Among active quarterbacks, Colin Kaepernick, Brady, Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton, and Jay Cutler have the best five winning percentages when scoring 21+ points. [click to continue…]


Back in November, Cian Fahey tweeted me a simple question: “What is Alex Smith’s record in games where his D gives up 21 or more points?”

I made a note to run the numbers in the off-season, and guess what? It’s the off-season. Smith now holds a career record of 7-38-1 (including a 1-1 mark in the postseason) when his team1 allows 21 or more points. That’s really bad, as it turns out. In fact, among quarterbacks who started such a game last year, only Ryan Fitzpatrick (5-43-0) has a worse career record. [click to continue…]

  1. Yes, that is not the same thing as his defense. []

Career RANY/A Rankings

Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt is my preferred basic measurement of quarterback play. ANY/A is simply yards per attempt, but includes sacks and sack yardage lost, and provides a 20-yard bonus for touchdowns and a 45-yard penalty for interceptions.

RANY/A, or Relative ANY/A, measures a quarterback’s ANY/A average to league average. Let’s use Aaron Rodgers as an example. This past season, he threw 520 passes and gained 4,381 yards and 38 touchdowns, while throwing five interceptions and being sacked 28 times for 174 yards. That translates to an 8.65 ANY/A average, best in the NFL in 2014.

The league average rate in 2014 was a record-high 6.14 Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt; as a result, this means that Rodgers averaged 2.52 ANY/A above average, or had a RANY/A of +2.52.1 But that is just for one season. To measure Rodgers’ career RANY/A, we need to do that for every season of his career, and weight his RANY/A in each season by his number of dropbacks.

For example, Rodgers had 14.7% of his career dropbacks come in 2014, which means 14.7% of his career RANY/A is based off of the number +2.52. During his other MVP season in 2011, Rodgers had a RANY/A of 3.49 on just 10 fewer dropbacks; as a result, 14.4% of his career RANY/A is based off of +3.49. If you multiply his RANY/A in each year by the percentage of dropbacks he had in that season relative to his entire career, and sum those results, you will get a player’s career RANY/A. Here, take a look: [click to continue…]

  1. Difference due to rounding. []

Today is a good day. Data collecting is difficult, but Bryan Frye has made life easier for all of us. Bryan, as you may recall, owns and operates his own great site at nflsgreatest.co.nf, where he focuses on NFL stats and history — and you should really check out his work. You can also view all of Bryan’s guest posts at Football Perspective at this link. You can follow him on twitter @LaverneusDingle. [click to continue…]


Guest Posts: Immobile Quarterbacks

Longtime commenter Jason Winter has chimed in with today’s guest post. Jason is a part-time video game journalist and full-time sports fan. You can read more of him at his blog: https://jasonwinter.wordpress.com/, and follow him on twitter at @winterinformal.

As always, we thank Jason for contributing.

A couple months ago, Ryan Lindley had a historically bad postseason game. If he’d thrown just seven more passes in the regular season, he would have made history in another way, too.

Lindley threw 93 passes last season, while recording precisely zero rushes. There was nary a scramble, quarterback sneak, or even a kneeldown on his record for the 2014 season. At 6’3”, 229 lbs., he hardly seems the scrambling type, but he was also only 25 and was, shall we say, far from the best passer in the league. You’d think he might have resorted to using his legs at least once.

Lindley’s 93 passes gives him the second-most passes in a season for a player who recorded zero rushes. The record-holder is a somewhat better-known name: the recently deceased Earl Morrall, who recorded 99 pass attempts with the Colts in 1969 without a carry. On the one hand, Morrall was 10 years older than Lindley, though he was a fairly effective and semi-regular runner throughout his career, averaging 3.7 yards on 235 rushes in 255 career games. Lindley has thus far totaled seven yards on four carries, all coming in 2012. [click to continue…]

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