As with the rest of these recaps, the ideas and analysis presented here are from Adam Steele. I’m just a dunce with admin rights.

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We’ve seen a steady decline in quarterback play across the last month, and this week hit a new low. The unweighted average QBR for week ten qualifiers was a dismal 44.7. That would have ranked 27th in the league last year! This isn’t a surprise as offense tends to decline in the second half of every season as defenses jell and the weather starts to make an impact.

Here are this week’s numbers:

#	QB Week 10	EPA/P	QBR	zEPA/P	zQBR	zAvg
1	Dak Prescott	0.49	93.4	2.27	1.88	2.08
2	Jimmy Garoppolo	0.33	95.9	1.45	1.98	1.72
3	Mac Jones	0.37	83.9	1.64	1.52	1.58
4	Josh Allen	0.25	85.3	1.01	1.57	1.29
5	Patrick Mahomes	0.26	83.4	1.06	1.50	1.28
6	Jalen Hurts	0.17	66.6	0.56	0.85	0.71
7	Kirk Cousins	0.14	65.1	0.42	0.79	0.61
8	Derek Carr	0.18	58.7	0.66	0.54	0.60
9	P.J. Walker	0.12	67.0	0.31	0.86	0.59
10	Taylor Heinicke	0.20	44.4	0.75	-0.01	0.37
11	Trevor Siemian	0.14	51.7	0.43	0.27	0.35
12	Ryan Tannehill	0.15	45.1	0.48	0.02	0.25
13	Tua Tagovailoa	0.21	35.5	0.82	-0.35	0.23
14	Justin Herbert	0.01	58.5	-0.26	0.53	0.14
15	Mason Rudolph	0.01	36.7	-0.27	-0.31	-0.29
16	Aaron Rodgers	0.04	29.6	-0.12	-0.58	-0.35
17	Teddy Bridgewater	0.03	27.8	-0.14	-0.65	-0.39
18	Tom Brady	0.00	31.7	-0.30	-0.50	-0.40
19	Matthew Stafford	-0.04	33.6	-0.55	-0.43	-0.49
20	Baker Mayfield	-0.05	32.4	-0.57	-0.47	-0.52
21	Lamar Jackson	-0.07	32.5	-0.72	-0.47	-0.59
22	Trevor Lawrence	-0.07	30.2	-0.71	-0.56	-0.63
23	Carson Wentz	-0.03	23.7	-0.49	-0.81	-0.65
24	Mike White	-0.09	27.7	-0.80	-0.66	-0.73
25	Jacoby Brissett	-0.03	14.2	-0.49	-1.18	-0.83
26	Matt Ryan	-0.14	9.1	-1.06	-1.37	-1.22
27	Jared Goff	-0.19	14.3	-1.36	-1.17	-1.26
28	Russell Wilson	-0.27	13.0	-1.76	-1.22	-1.49
29	Colt McCoy	-0.37	4.5	-2.28	-1.55	-1.92

And now the season stats:

#	QB Season	EPA/P	QBR	zEPA/P	zQBR	zAvg
1	Matthew Stafford	0.193	67.1	1.22	1.44	1.33
2	Tom Brady	0.193	65.3	1.21	1.29	1.25
3	Kyler Murray	0.188	63.5	1.13	1.13	1.13
4	Jameis Winston	0.171	65.9	0.89	1.34	1.11
5	Aaron Rodgers	0.186	61.4	1.12	0.95	1.03
6	Ryan Tannehill	0.185	60.1	1.09	0.84	0.96
7	Justin Herbert	0.157	63.5	0.68	1.13	0.90
8	Patrick Mahomes	0.180	58.5	1.01	0.70	0.86
9	Jimmy Garoppolo	0.173	57.1	0.92	0.58	0.75
10	Dak Prescott	0.163	58.7	0.77	0.72	0.74
11	Josh Allen	0.143	60.5	0.47	0.87	0.67
12	Matt Ryan	0.150	55.5	0.57	0.44	0.51
13	Kirk Cousins	0.141	57.0	0.43	0.57	0.50
14	Derek Carr	0.154	54.6	0.63	0.36	0.49
15	Joe Burrow	0.152	49.4	0.60	-0.09	0.25
16	Carson Wentz	0.113	55.3	0.02	0.42	0.22
17	Mac Jones	0.137	51.1	0.37	0.06	0.21
18	Lamar Jackson	0.116	54.1	0.06	0.32	0.19
19	Tua Tagovailoa	0.100	53.7	-0.18	0.28	0.05
20	Teddy Bridgewater	0.129	47.9	0.26	-0.22	0.02
21	Jalen Hurts	0.103	50.6	-0.14	0.01	-0.06
22	Russell Wilson	0.080	50.5	-0.47	0.00	-0.23
23	Baker Mayfield	0.105	42.9	-0.11	-0.66	-0.38
24	Taylor Heinicke	0.104	42.4	-0.12	-0.70	-0.41
25	Daniel Jones	0.081	44.7	-0.47	-0.50	-0.48
26	Ben Roethlisberger	0.080	41.9	-0.47	-0.74	-0.61
27	Jacoby Brissett	0.026	48.6	-1.28	-0.16	-0.72
28	Sam Darnold	0.028	35.4	-1.25	-1.31	-1.28
29	Trevor Lawrence	0.002	34.9	-1.64	-1.35	-1.50
30	Justin Fields	0.035	27.7	-1.15	-1.98	-1.56
31	Davis Mills	-0.005	30.4	-1.74	-1.74	-1.74
32	Zach Wilson	-0.021	27.8	-1.98	-1.97	-1.97
33	Jared Goff	-0.053	27.3	-2.46	-2.01	-2.24

Race For The MVP

Here are the latest odds for 2021 MVP:

Josh Allen +250
Tom Brady +350
Matthew Stafford +600
Dak Prescott +800
Aaron Rodgers +1200
Kyler Murray +1600
Lamar Jackson +1600
Patrick Mahomes +1800

From a statistical standpoint, this is quite the head scratcher. Josh Allen hasn’t even been a top five QB this year, much less the best. That being said, there is historical precedent for this kind of season getting the MVP nod: Cam Newton in 2015.

In 2015 Newton’s Panthers had the #1 scoring offense (heavily aided by a great defense), and Newton carried a larger offensive load than any QB in the league. In 2021 Allen’s Bills have the #2 scoring offense (heavily aided by a great defense), and Allen has carried the largest offensive load in the league. However, there is one major difference between the two seasons – Cam’s team started 14-0 while Allen’s has underachieved at 6-3. Without the undefeated season narrative, it’s hard to make a case for Josh Allen winning MVP at this point. The bookies in Vegas must know something I don’t. ^[1]Editorial from Bryan: They do.

Again, maybe I’m an idiot, but Tom Brady at +350 seems like the blindingly obvious bet. Brady has better stats than Allen, the same 6-3 record, and arguably a more compelling narrative for voters. If someone can make an argument for why he’s not the favorite, I’d love to hear it.

After a second straight clunker in primetime, Matt Stafford still has the third best odds. That surprises me, given how the media has sharply turned against him, but he does continue to hold a slim lead in my season long QB rankings. Lamar Jackson was a good dark horse pick last week, but his awful performance in a TNF loss to the lowly Dolphins probably torpedoed his MVP hopes. Aside from Brady, a wager on Dak Prescott at +800 is probably the best value left on the board.

What are your thoughts?