We’ve come to the end of the line. After several posts ranking and reranking, thinking and rethinking, quarterbacks with Total Adjusted Yards per Play and its descendants, this is the one I imagine most readers really want to see. Today, we are looking at measured performance in the regular season and playoffs combined. This is where guys like Y.A. Tittle, who feasted in the regular season but nearly always faltered in the postseason, see their positions fall down the list. Where passers like Jim Plunkett, whose regular season performances left much to be desired but went full tilt bozo in the playoffs, rise up the ranks. As far as the NFL record book is concerned, the playoffs don’t count toward career stats or win-loss totals. While I understand not rewarding players for getting to participate in more games, I can see the argument that it is equally unfair not to reward them for playing well enough to continue the march toward a championship. In order to balance those ideas, I have only counted playoff performances that measured above average by TAY/P.

A quick word on the numbers I’m using. You can find more detail in previous articles in the series, but this should be sufficient to introduce the rookies and refresh the veterans.

• The base metric for everything here is Total Adjusted Yards, which is defined as: passing yards – sack yards + rushing yards +20*pass touchdowns + 20*rush touchdowns – 45*interceptions – 25*fumbles
• Plays are simply passes + sacks + rushes
• Divide them and get TAY/P.
• VAL/P is defined as: a player’s TAY/P in a given season – the three-year rolling league average of TAY/P 
• VAL, short for value, is: VAL/P * plays ^[1]Because of the way this compares players against average, rather than replacement, I have considered changing the name to DOM, short for dominance. But that feels a little too pro wrestling for my … Continue reading
• PV (positive value) is a player’s VAL in the regular season and only his positively valued scores from the postseason, with the idea that the playoffs should only help and never hurt.
• pLev is short for positive championship leverage. It applies the idea of the increased importance of playoff games, relative to regular season games, when it comes to winning a championship. You can read about it in great detail in the original championship leverage article, and in less detail in the leverage update article.
• pRet is short for positive retroactive championship leverage. It takes the value of a modern Super Bowl and applies it to every highest-level championship game in each year. Playoff games preceding the title games are given half that credit, and so on. This is meant to treat titles equally, rather than giving less credit to the quarterbacks who helped build the game into what it is today.
• TAYP+ is a fairly straightforward concept designed to present the reader with a familiar looking efficiency metric, similar to Pro Football Reference’s passing index scores. It is defined as: the player’s standard deviation of TAY/P above or below league average (z score)*15 +100. Thus, 100 will always represent league average, and every 15 points will equal one standard deviation.
• ZVAL, or Z Value, is a somewhat abstract concept. A value metric, it can be considered alongside VAL as a another way or measuring volume of above average performance. It is defined as: a player’s z score multiplied by his number of plays. Z Value does not remove negative seasons or negative playoff performances.

The Table

The table below contains the 286 quarterbacks with at least 1000 career plays and is initially sort by VAL. Read it thus: Peyton Manning produced 75134 Total Adjusted Yards in 11213 plays at 6.70 TAY/P. His TAY/P was 1.56 above average, giving him a VAL of 17523. His PV eliminates his bookend seasons, leaving him with 18526. Manning had a positive leverage-adjusted VAL of 125772 and a retro-adjusted VAL of 125826. His TAYP+ was 116.8, and his Z Value was 12566.

Player	TAY	Ply	TAY/P	VAL/P	VAL	PV	pLev	pRet	TAYP+	ZVAL
Peyton Manning	75134	11213	6.70	1.56	17523	18526	125772	125826	116.8	12566
Tom Brady	89276	13704	6.51	1.11	15264	16187	239855	239910	112.5	11461
Drew Brees	81214	12259	6.62	1.21	14822	15170	68717	68717	113.6	11153
Dan Marino	57733	9653	5.98	1.32	12695	13338	69276	72546	113.6	8757
Joe Montana	44045	7004	6.29	1.75	12270	12574	241010	256043	117.3	8075
Aaron Rodgers	59821	8557	6.99	1.36	11604	11827	81605	81605	115.5	8844
Otto Graham	22095	3429	6.44	3.26	11171	11463	32553	101937	115.4	3521
Steve Young	37835	5822	6.50	1.79	10428	10693	105660	110297	119.0	7374
Fran Tarkenton	39898	7962	5.01	1.26	10030	10408	16185	19347	108.2	4327
Sid Luckman	11424	2060	5.55	4.31	8885	9043	27324	121788	116.2	2229
Johnny Unitas	32479	6134	5.29	1.44	8838	9114	29307	65188	108.2	3342
Ken Anderson	29270	5476	5.35	1.59	8724	8769	42037	45971	111.5	4207
Sammy Baugh	15948	3427	4.65	2.49	8544	8685	19623	77315	109.8	2231
Norm Van Brocklin	17622	3104	5.68	2.66	8271	8599	17271	49229	113.2	2724
Dan Fouts	34552	6454	5.35	1.25	8093	8444	30341	33060	111.1	4794
Philip Rivers	60195	9426	6.39	0.86	8067	8302	30246	30246	109.5	5960
Sonny Jurgensen	25756	4696	5.48	1.58	7405	7518	7518	7518	110.3	3237
Roger Staubach	22198	4228	5.25	1.74	7343	7932	58992	80955	112.8	3610
Brett Favre	66333	12175	5.45	0.60	7256	7918	98627	100457	106.5	5313
Ben Roethlisberger	59910	9717	6.17	0.71	6896	7378	58671	58671	108.1	5274
Matt Ryan	55087	8710	6.32	0.70	6115	6436	73025	73025	108.4	4878
Len Dawson	23793	4486	5.30	1.31	5883	5990	17098	24407	109.1	2720
Kurt Warner	30504	5009	6.09	1.13	5683	5800	119181	119952	112.0	4013
Tony Romo	32343	5038	6.42	1.06	5332	5563	9655	9655	111.7	3916
John Elway	48634	9324	5.22	0.57	5302	5828	127015	134036	106.0	3739
Daryle Lamonica	16906	3188	5.30	1.57	5012	5410	51295	79816	109.9	2107
John Brodie	25029	5018	4.99	0.96	4805	4904	13151	17891	107.0	2341
Y.A. Tittle	24501	4991	4.91	0.96	4797	5463	5463	5463	105.2	1741
Cecil Isbell	6790	1301	5.22	3.62	4710	4710	6551	15867	115.0	1304
Russell Wilson	39858	6115	6.52	0.76	4672	5030	81081	81081	109.4	3821
Bart Starr	20338	3875	5.25	1.15	4464	4480	53616	116371	107.8	2007
Patrick Mahomes	17871	2287	7.81	1.89	4318	4615	56304	56304	122.5	3435
Joe Namath	19752	4108	4.81	1.03	4226	4374	20637	30021	106.3	1720
Jeff Garcia	26306	4570	5.76	0.88	4007	4368	12224	12224	109.9	3021
Bert Jones	15656	3111	5.03	1.26	3935	4018	5122	5737	108.9	1854
Jim Kelly	31985	6020	5.31	0.65	3891	4720	56833	59371	106.6	2631
Donovan McNabb	39040	7097	5.50	0.55	3871	4489	34494	34550	105.7	2694
Trent Green	24707	4304	5.74	0.89	3817	3999	8441	8441	109.7	2774
Terry Bradshaw	24045	5184	4.64	0.72	3755	3991	115688	143852	106.4	2223
John Hadl	24445	5323	4.59	0.67	3545	3810	8934	27650	104.4	1551
Bob Griese	19080	4261	4.48	0.82	3483	3727	21694	31900	105.6	1588
Troy Aikman	31200	5869	5.32	0.59	3476	4006	125524	130326	106.4	2490
Jim Hart	24649	5603	4.40	0.61	3420	3427	3823	4051	103.3	1238
Steve McNair	31426	5847	5.37	0.56	3254	3626	30157	30311	106.2	2417
Roman Gabriel	23600	5282	4.47	0.58	3087	3133	3133	3133	103.9	1386
Rich Gannon	28192	5278	5.34	0.58	3071	3403	29695	29785	106.7	2372
Bob Waterfield	7733	1831	4.22	1.64	3002	3179	12894	45815	107.0	860
Warren Moon	41537	8286	5.01	0.36	2999	3384	16671	17407	103.7	2029
Bobby Layne	18611	4445	4.19	0.67	2959	3401	6356	16216	103.0	900
Charlie Conerly	13969	3211	4.35	0.92	2941	3131	18079	71490	104.2	901
Boomer Esiason	31296	6102	5.13	0.47	2889	3168	6639	6801	104.8	1953
Joe Theismann	22058	4553	4.84	0.62	2836	3003	24623	28794	105.7	1734
Carson Palmer	40350	7076	5.70	0.36	2582	2960	5430	5430	104.3	2023
Billy Kilmer	16150	3638	4.44	0.69	2506	2680	17526	25851	104.4	1076
Dak Prescott	18846	2815	6.69	0.88	2473	2473	11822	11822	110.8	2018
Jim Everett	28938	5632	5.14	0.44	2472	2751	6394	6643	104.7	1755
Mark Brunell	30771	5908	5.21	0.41	2432	2968	15328	15551	104.6	1828
Ken Stabler	20092	4579	4.39	0.52	2397	2469	48373	72325	102.3	708
Mark Rypien	16807	3096	5.43	0.75	2329	2436	42845	44675	107.3	1517
Steve Grogan	20311	4398	4.62	0.53	2325	2583	4887	6057	104.2	1224
Matt Schaub	22657	3816	5.94	0.61	2324	2336	3080	3080	105.8	1487
Matthew Stafford	42310	7083	5.97	0.33	2312	2351	5467	5467	104.1	1919
Kirk Cousins	26857	4240	6.33	0.54	2306	2539	3670	3670	106.9	1949
Deshaun Watson	16232	2397	6.77	0.91	2186	2260	7553	7553	111.0	1752
Daunte Culpepper	22380	4173	5.36	0.50	2095	2369	18498	18637	105.4	1501
Earl Morrall	15129	3217	4.70	0.63	2014	2177	9248	13352	104.8	1020
Bernie Kosar	21002	4118	5.10	0.49	2011	2236	38883	42583	104.4	1219
Jim McMahon	17007	3324	5.12	0.57	1886	2110	50895	54157	105.5	1226
Doug Williams	14984	3003	4.99	0.58	1754	2154	45563	51450	105.7	1140
Frank Ryan	13048	2681	4.87	0.65	1743	1883	10440	29116	104.6	817
Frankie Albert	9870	1953	5.05	0.84	1650	1765	1765	1765	103.6	474
Tommy Thompson	7032	1821	3.86	0.90	1640	1795	5307	19106	104.0	487
Randall Cunningham	29645	5985	4.95	0.27	1593	1888	16125	16517	102.6	1042
Chad Pennington	16638	3057	5.44	0.52	1582	2020	9233	9233	105.7	1156
Craig Morton	19803	4673	4.24	0.34	1571	2371	16713	24013	102.8	860
Arnie Herber	5022	1492	3.37	1.05	1564	1851	8353	41377	104.6	462
Ed Danowski	3858	1097	3.52	1.42	1557	1682	4147	16738	105.7	414
Jeff Hostetler	15696	3007	5.22	0.52	1551	1551	29362	30634	105.4	1087
Tom Flores	9547	1806	5.29	0.83	1506	1506	1506	1506	106.3	763
Greg Landry	12925	3064	4.22	0.49	1499	1569	1569	1569	102.9	596
Andrew Luck	25000	4165	6.00	0.35	1450	1835	8977	8977	104.5	1238
Billy Wade	13680	2929	4.67	0.47	1384	1466	2510	5254	102.7	528
Charley Johnson	16818	3830	4.39	0.35	1352	1352	1352	1352	102.3	575
Milt Plum	12472	2744	4.55	0.48	1317	1479	1479	1479	101.2	213
Neil Lomax	18591	3797	4.90	0.33	1235	1249	1249	1249	103.7	947
Marc Bulger	19343	3675	5.26	0.33	1203	1265	5999	5999	103.6	894
Michael Vick	24657	4595	5.37	0.26	1190	1347	8828	8828	102.5	773
George Ratterman	8011	1582	5.06	0.75	1188	1396	3268	10270	103.6	379
Doug Flutie	13909	2673	5.20	0.43	1152	1260	3411	3465	104.7	835
Matt Hasselbeck	34069	6505	5.24	0.17	1133	1215	23317	23317	101.8	791
Bobby Thomason	5877	1440	4.08	0.69	1001	1001	1001	1001	103.5	339
Brian Sipe	17578	3934	4.47	0.25	994	1260	1260	1260	103.3	878
Phil Simms	27345	5806	4.71	0.17	992	1516	49665	52899	101.7	658
Don Meredith	13097	2859	4.58	0.32	916	1176	10088	17109	102.5	474
Brad Johnson	25407	5098	4.98	0.18	910	1278	17625	17636	102.1	702
Bill Kenney	13333	2764	4.82	0.32	871	871	1457	1498	103.4	621
Neil O'Donnell	19735	4005	4.93	0.22	866	1269	20113	20950	102.5	658
David Garrard	15640	2919	5.36	0.27	792	850	4605	4605	102.9	565
Danny White	17420	3750	4.65	0.21	779	1295	12038	14293	101.9	482
Colin Kaepernick	14604	2461	5.93	0.31	752	800	53388	53388	103.2	521
Ace Parker	4591	1243	3.69	0.59	731	816	816	816	103.2	262
Lamar Jackson	10693	1706	6.27	0.40	676	1022	1310	1310	104.9	554
Bobby Hebert	17298	3605	4.80	0.17	620	751	751	751	101.5	371
Pat Haden	7220	1752	4.12	0.34	589	944	4627	4878	101.1	127
Elvis Grbac	14364	2893	4.97	0.20	581	963	3567	3619	102.4	462
Bill Nelsen	9717	2283	4.26	0.25	565	965	4775	7020	101.7	256
Derek Carr	24984	4241	5.89	0.13	548	548	548	548	101.5	411
Jim Zorn	15960	3713	4.30	0.15	548	617	617	617	101.8	458
Eli Manning	50589	9292	5.44	0.06	545	885	32498	32498	100.6	354
Cam Newton	34767	6048	5.75	0.09	542	858	21334	21334	101.0	395
Jeff George	22431	4636	4.84	0.11	518	532	10071	10191	101.5	479
Jared Goff	17531	2938	5.97	0.17	511	642	1064	1064	101.9	362
Jake Delhomme	18004	3532	5.10	0.14	482	827	46573	46573	101.5	354
Ron Jaworski	22111	5049	4.38	0.09	440	814	7976	10362	101.6	524
Jeff Blake	18993	3907	4.86	0.09	341	341	341	341	101.1	292
Spec Sanders	5285	1003	5.27	0.34	339	401	409	450	101.5	99
Tony Eason	9248	1976	4.68	0.17	339	432	10676	11372	101.9	248
Frank Filchock	3663	1232	2.97	0.25	309	713	2236	10973	100.4	33
Marcus Mariota	13408	2290	5.86	0.11	249	252	295	295	101.5	230
Jimmy Garoppolo	7386	1229	6.01	0.19	228	342	342	342	102.2	181
Bob Berry	5943	1475	4.03	0.15	217	217	217	217	101.0	99
Aaron Brooks	17848	3656	4.88	0.06	215	215	2159	2184	100.7	167
Vinny Testaverde	36985	7751	4.77	0.03	207	304	11338	11633	100.6	303
Steve Pelluer	5678	1197	4.74	0.16	195	195	195	195	101.4	109
Tobin Rote	14380	3654	3.94	0.05	177	271	19158	84065	100.8	205
Ken O'Brien	19522	4211	4.64	0.04	150	201	617	646	100.4	117
James Harris	5312	1431	3.71	0.10	136	256	2784	4216	99.1	-82
Erik Kramer	12966	2722	4.76	0.05	135	226	10631	11107	101.0	182
Kyler Murray	8361	1401	5.97	0.10	133	133	133	133	101.2	112
Ed Brown	9911	2359	4.20	0.06	130	225	225	225	100.1	9
Tommy Kramer	18932	4272	4.43	0.03	119	449	2118	2801	100.0	3
Baker Mayfield	10560	1798	5.87	0.06	104	163	2547	2547	100.7	86
Jameis Winston	17305	2987	5.79	0.03	98	98	3618	3618	100.4	83
Ryan Tannehill	25279	4422	5.72	0.02	93	239	3395	3395	100.2	54
Josh Allen	11502	1956	5.88	0.04	87	262	2920	2920	100.7	86
Steve Beuerlein	18594	3921	4.74	0.02	81	97	1891	1975	100.1	15
Paul Christman	3844	1247	3.08	0.06	74	179	179	179	100.2	19
Wade Wilson	14463	3119	4.64	0.02	55	324	7754	8766	99.7	-53
Bill Munson	9249	2312	4.00	0.01	27	59	59	59	100.3	50
Gary Danielson	10416	2345	4.44	0.01	20	201	201	201	101.7	263
Vince Ferragamo	8428	1977	4.26	0.00	-9	276	10779	11490	98.5	-194
Byron Leftwich	9193	1877	4.90	-0.02	-41	68	68	68	99.6	-49
Craig Erickson	5846	1251	4.67	-0.04	-45	-45	-45	-45	99.8	-17
Tyrod Taylor	10971	1924	5.70	-0.03	-56	105	105	105	100.1	11
Jim Finks	5224	1500	3.48	-0.04	-60	-60	-60	-60	99.8	-20
Charlie Batch	9232	1937	4.77	-0.05	-93	-93	-93	-93	99.2	-97
Rob Johnson	5209	1119	4.66	-0.10	-107	10	938	938	98.7	-94
Brian Griese	15446	3227	4.79	-0.04	-137	-137	-137	-137	99.8	-38
Norm Snead	19898	4835	4.12	-0.03	-137	-137	-137	-137	99.9	-38
Stan Humphries	14280	3063	4.66	-0.05	-146	272	2447	2545	99.6	-80
Steve DeBerg	25143	5604	4.49	-0.03	-192	-96	2044	2145	100.2	83
George Blanda	18515	4358	4.25	-0.05	-201	391	8330	44918	99.8	-55
Shaun Hill	7198	1400	5.14	-0.15	-215	-215	-215	-215	98.0	-189
Jay Fiedler	10232	2180	4.69	-0.10	-221	146	5821	5892	99.3	-102
Jay Schroeder	15578	3434	4.54	-0.07	-252	184	3390	3537	99.2	-184
Robert Griffin	8246	1532	5.38	-0.17	-255	-171	-171	-171	97.4	-262
Nick Foles	13852	2492	5.56	-0.11	-272	-184	50771	50771	98.6	-237
Steve Bono	8793	1929	4.56	-0.15	-290	-177	100	113	98.4	-201
Ty Detmer	4903	1108	4.43	-0.30	-330	-267	-267	-267	96.5	-261
John Friesz	6651	1491	4.46	-0.23	-339	-339	-339	-339	98.0	-203
Jim Harbaugh	23391	5046	4.64	-0.07	-340	-3	9586	9819	99.4	-197
Jay Cutler	30288	5685	5.33	-0.06	-350	-260	7375	7375	99.1	-345
Chris Miller	15425	3354	4.60	-0.11	-357	-161	1197	1260	98.8	-279
Kyle Orton	15437	3003	5.14	-0.12	-362	-362	-362	-362	98.6	-280
Scott Mitchell	12557	2733	4.59	-0.13	-366	-118	-118	-118	98.7	-241
Jeff Kemp	4730	1134	4.17	-0.35	-394	-303	-217	-211	96.7	-252
Steve Spurrier	4267	1232	3.46	-0.33	-411	-411	-411	-411	98.0	-168
Jim Plunkett	18971	4716	4.02	-0.09	-415	-255	78183	84270	99.6	-123
Teddy Bridgewater	10560	1906	5.54	-0.23	-431	-383	-383	-383	97.0	-378
Cotton Davidson	8224	1881	4.37	-0.25	-462	-462	-462	-462	99.5	-61
Jason Campbell	14739	2928	5.03	-0.16	-464	-464	-464	-464	98.2	-357
Jim Miller	4949	1147	4.31	-0.44	-503	-445	-445	-445	94.8	-394
Gary Hogeboom	6654	1555	4.28	-0.33	-517	-498	-498	-498	96.8	-330
Glenn Dobbs	5715	1196	4.78	-0.44	-523	-523	-523	-523	98.2	-142
Mike Livingston	7123	2060	3.46	-0.26	-530	-530	-530	-530	97.3	-366
Andy Dalton	31660	5693	5.56	-0.10	-542	-68	-68	-68	99.1	-329
Alex Smith	35214	6515	5.41	-0.09	-570	-469	15908	15908	99.5	-238
Chris Chandler	22452	4869	4.61	-0.12	-578	-505	15898	16296	99.0	-333
Damon Huard	4835	1112	4.35	-0.52	-582	-492	-492	-492	94.6	-402
Jake Plummer	24734	5294	4.67	-0.11	-584	-314	1523	1523	98.5	-533
Steve Ramsey	3458	1064	3.25	-0.57	-603	-603	-603	-603	96.1	-274
Dave Krieg	29749	6546	4.54	-0.10	-629	-213	9914	10719	99.1	-380
Steve Bartkowski	17110	4117	4.16	-0.16	-645	-386	4821	5177	100.0	13
Mitchell Trubisky	10609	1959	5.42	-0.34	-668	-668	1147	1147	95.9	-532
Parker Hall	2816	1058	2.66	-0.64	-676	-676	-676	-676	98.2	-125
Mike Tomczak	12435	2802	4.44	-0.24	-678	-429	596	644	97.4	-488
Vince Young	7935	1703	4.66	-0.40	-681	-608	-608	-608	95.6	-501
Frank Reich	4948	1209	4.09	-0.58	-705	-583	8263	8651	93.6	-520
Jacoby Brissett	6342	1230	5.16	-0.58	-719	-713	-713	-713	93.0	-575
Trent Edwards	4761	1076	4.42	-0.67	-720	-720	-720	-720	93.2	-487
Case Keenum	13160	2445	5.38	-0.31	-749	-640	1435	1435	96.1	-637
Shaun King	4076	1022	3.99	-0.75	-767	-458	-458	-458	92.2	-532
Kelly Holcomb	4313	1053	4.10	-0.73	-772	-772	4722	4722	92.6	-517
Joe Ferguson	21441	5312	4.04	-0.15	-775	-548	2915	4909	98.8	-420
Tommy Maddox	6206	1465	4.24	-0.55	-809	-782	3522	3522	94.5	-536
Patrick Ramsey	4188	1040	4.03	-0.80	-830	-824	-824	-824	91.5	-586
David Woodley	6791	1694	4.01	-0.50	-842	-508	6061	8754	95.3	-535
Gus Frerotte	16461	3596	4.58	-0.24	-855	-620	-620	-620	97.5	-595
Matt Moore	6038	1274	4.74	-0.68	-863	-803	-803	-803	92.8	-608
Brandon Weeden	5126	1093	4.69	-0.80	-879	-879	-879	-879	90.3	-704
Marty Domres	3121	1036	3.01	-0.87	-898	-767	-767	-767	94.5	-381
Josh Freeman	11819	2365	5.00	-0.38	-898	-898	-898	-898	95.6	-694
Quincy Carter	5031	1235	4.07	-0.74	-916	-837	-837	-837	91.8	-677
Babe Parilli	16084	3819	4.21	-0.24	-931	-847	1599	10740	99.4	-160
Tarvaris Jackson	6178	1373	4.50	-0.68	-934	-835	-835	-835	92.7	-671
Kent Graham	6391	1560	4.10	-0.60	-941	-941	-941	-941	93.6	-671
Lynn Dickey	14882	3625	4.11	-0.27	-974	-974	3106	4802	99.2	-205
Kordell Stewart	14637	3286	4.45	-0.30	-975	-640	338	363	97.0	-650
Brian Hoyer	8779	1731	5.07	-0.59	-1018	-680	-680	-680	93.1	-792
Eddie LeBaron	7463	2007	3.72	-0.53	-1061	-1061	-1061	-1061	97.6	-316
Don Majkowski	10018	2359	4.25	-0.45	-1061	-1061	556	597	95.5	-705
Mike Glennon	5083	1103	4.61	-0.98	-1083	-1083	-1083	-1083	88.0	-885
Dick Wood	4753	1220	3.90	-0.89	-1084	-1084	-1084	-1084	93.6	-522
Gary Cuozzo	4794	1428	3.36	-0.76	-1088	-959	-959	-959	94.8	-497
Hugh Millen	4055	1119	3.62	-1.02	-1145	-1145	-1145	-1145	89.9	-753
David Whitehurst	3614	1156	3.13	-1.00	-1155	-1155	-1155	-1155	91.6	-648
Steve Dils	3807	1097	3.47	-1.06	-1165	-1165	-1165	-1165	90.2	-718
Jack Kemp	15279	3679	4.15	-0.32	-1187	-820	2437	17448	98.4	-395
Steve Walsh	5890	1505	3.91	-0.80	-1204	-1000	758	841	91.2	-886
Steve Fuller	5294	1468	3.61	-0.83	-1216	-1025	3625	3942	92.0	-785
Daniel Jones	5136	1100	4.67	-1.12	-1228	-1228	-1228	-1228	86.6	-984
Rodney Peete	12367	2897	4.27	-0.43	-1231	-1210	3129	3238	95.2	-935
Mike Pagel	7081	1786	3.96	-0.69	-1237	-1237	-52	30	94.3	-677
Jack Thompson	3176	1001	3.17	-1.25	-1254	-1254	-351	-290	87.4	-842
Mark Malone	7657	1971	3.88	-0.64	-1269	-1259	6950	7504	94.1	-775
Vince Evans	6739	1732	3.89	-0.74	-1275	-1232	-1232	-1232	93.6	-734
Pete Beathard	5096	1585	3.22	-0.84	-1336	-1009	-1009	-1009	94.7	-564
Carson Wentz	15511	2934	5.29	-0.46	-1344	-1291	-1291	-1291	94.2	-1127
Christian Ponder	5576	1278	4.36	-1.06	-1352	-1352	-1352	-1352	87.5	-1066
Eric Hipple	7329	1899	3.86	-0.72	-1364	-1364	-1279	-1244	93.8	-783
Al Dorow	5235	1455	3.60	-0.94	-1369	-1369	-1369	-1369	94.7	-518
Lamar McHan	5766	1697	3.40	-0.82	-1386	-1386	-1386	-1386	95.3	-527
J.P. Losman	4287	1165	3.68	-1.21	-1404	-1404	-1404	-1404	87.7	-956
Geno Smith	4890	1142	4.28	-1.24	-1420	-1420	-1420	-1420	84.2	-1202
Colt McCoy	5205	1222	4.26	-1.17	-1424	-1424	-1424	-1424	86.7	-1081
Joe Kapp	4086	1283	3.18	-1.11	-1427	-1353	9791	16257	92.2	-666
Bubby Brister	11027	2662	4.14	-0.54	-1447	-1393	2401	2659	94.2	-1032
Brock Osweiler	6533	1411	4.63	-1.03	-1452	-1283	-777	-777	87.0	-1222
Derek Anderson	8111	1858	4.37	-0.79	-1464	-1458	-1458	-1458	92.1	-974
Joe Pisarcik	2899	1075	2.70	-1.36	-1467	-1467	-1467	-1467	88.7	-812
Randy Wright	4216	1259	3.35	-1.17	-1471	-1471	-1471	-1471	88.5	-968
Billy Joe Tolliver	7628	1931	3.95	-0.76	-1473	-1473	-1473	-1473	91.7	-1063
Todd Blackledge	3283	1062	3.09	-1.39	-1475	-1349	-1349	-1349	85.7	-1014
Richard Todd	14098	3657	3.86	-0.41	-1490	-1049	818	1594	96.1	-940
Rudy Bukich	4684	1369	3.42	-1.10	-1511	-1511	-1511	-1511	93.9	-560
Marc Wilson	9601	2460	3.90	-0.62	-1518	-1423	-1423	-1423	93.4	-1077
Adrian Burk	3130	1201	2.61	-1.29	-1551	-1551	-1551	-1551	92.9	-569
Dave Wilson	3747	1196	3.13	-1.31	-1564	-1406	-1406	-1406	86.6	-1069
Tim Couch	7948	2004	3.97	-0.78	-1568	-1568	-1568	-1568	91.2	-1171
Rex Grossman	7901	1878	4.21	-0.84	-1570	-1408	1292	1292	91.1	-1113
Jim Ninowski	4074	1185	3.44	-1.33	-1571	-1452	-1452	-1452	92.9	-560
Scott Brunner	3938	1251	3.15	-1.26	-1574	-1574	-340	-255	86.7	-1109
Ryan Fitzpatrick	31226	5926	5.27	-0.27	-1577	-1577	-1577	-1577	97.4	-1018
Sam Darnold	6609	1431	4.62	-1.11	-1590	-1590	-1590	-1590	86.6	-1274
Drew Bledsoe	35806	7851	4.56	-0.21	-1626	-982	-982	-982	97.8	-1158
Danny Kanell	3491	1096	3.19	-1.49	-1633	-1633	-312	-279	83.8	-1185
Bobby Douglass	5317	1768	3.01	-0.95	-1675	-1675	-1675	-1675	93.6	-753
Chad Henne	10619	2289	4.64	-0.73	-1679	-1641	-1641	-1641	91.7	-1260
Sam Bradford	16576	3309	5.01	-0.51	-1695	-1695	-1695	-1695	94.3	-1250
Blake Bortles	16550	3219	5.14	-0.53	-1720	-1653	4926	4926	93.0	-1495
Bob Avellini	3492	1353	2.58	-1.29	-1745	-1604	-1604	-1604	89.7	-932
Jack Concannon	4244	1418	2.99	-1.25	-1774	-1774	-1774	-1774	91.3	-826
Archie Manning	16266	4422	3.68	-0.44	-1946	-1946	-1946	-1946	98.0	-583
Joe Flacco	38277	7320	5.23	-0.28	-2015	-1444	61454	61454	96.7	-1625
Tony Banks	11313	2833	3.99	-0.72	-2042	-2023	-2023	-2023	92.1	-1501
Dennis Shaw	2735	1143	2.39	-1.80	-2055	-2055	-2055	-2055	87.8	-930
Dave Brown	7416	2018	3.67	-1.04	-2099	-2067	-2067	-2067	88.5	-1549
Joey Harrington	11455	2804	4.09	-0.76	-2125	-2125	-2125	-2125	91.8	-1525
Jack Trudeau	6443	1881	3.43	-1.17	-2196	-2196	761	1177	87.8	-1527
Kerry Collins	32671	7242	4.51	-0.33	-2392	-1963	22912	23176	96.5	-1695
Matt Cassel	14464	3185	4.54	-0.77	-2452	-2249	-2249	-2249	90.9	-1926
King Hill	2462	1000	2.46	-2.48	-2485	-2485	-2485	-2485	86.2	-919
Mike Taliaferro	2190	1077	2.03	-2.40	-2586	-2586	-2586	-2586	83.4	-1194
Mark Sanchez	12532	2830	4.43	-0.94	-2652	-2559	15875	15875	89.4	-2009
Kyle Boller	6221	1818	3.42	-1.48	-2685	-2685	-2685	-2685	84.8	-1840
Frank Tripucka	5350	1788	2.99	-1.51	-2697	-2697	-2697	-2697	90.7	-1114
Jon Kitna	22332	5163	4.33	-0.52	-2704	-2460	-2460	-2460	94.2	-1999
Rick Mirer	8946	2484	3.60	-1.10	-2739	-2739	-2739	-2739	87.9	-2000
Randy Johnson	3870	1552	2.49	-1.79	-2782	-2782	-2782	-2782	87.9	-1250
Josh McCown	13912	3151	4.42	-0.91	-2858	-2786	-2786	-2786	89.7	-2162
Zeke Bratkowski	4960	1662	2.98	-1.74	-2886	-2864	-2864	-2864	90.1	-1096
David Carr	10726	2839	3.78	-1.05	-2977	-2977	-2977	-2977	88.4	-2199
Blaine Gabbert	7050	1838	3.84	-1.66	-3050	-3050	-3050	-3050	80.5	-2390
Trent Dilfer	14834	3847	3.86	-0.89	-3413	-3285	-2220	-2204	90.3	-2499
Mike Phipps	5819	2297	2.53	-1.51	-3469	-3210	-3210	-3210	89.0	-1691
Dan Pastorini	10794	3647	2.96	-1.00	-3638	-3371	9268	10132	92.5	-1818

I think the rankings have face validity. Certainly, the majority of the majority of the majority of people wouldn’t put Manning on top, but most would have the same names near the top, for the most part.

In the regular season and postseason combined, Tom Brady has had over 1000 more action plays than runner up Drew Brees. While Brees has a slightly higher VAL/P, on average, Brady’s sheer volume of great play puts the Pats legend above the perennial bridesmaid in total career VAL. Manning still remains on top, primarily because of his large lead built in the regular season, as well as the fact that his postseason numbers were better than people may remember.

Even when including the postseason, Dan Marino‘s VAL remains higher than Joe Montana‘s. Sid Luckman also remains higher then Sammy Baugh, though I think most people who watched them play would agree that Slingin’ Sammy was the superior quarterback with the inferior team.

No matter which numbers people use, Ken Anderson tends to find his name among Hall of Famers. I wouldn’t personally put him in the Hall of Fame, because I think few players have had as large a gap between numbers and observed quality of play. However, that the plurality of numbers agree that he is among the very best, it suggests, to me, that it wouldn’t be some big travesty if he made it.

In many ways, Bobby Layne, John Elway, and early Brett Favre are on the other end of the spectrum from Anderson. With the level of talent surrounding them on offense, the numbers drastically undersell their actions on the field of play.

A quick word on Johnny Unitas: the prototype for the modern dropback passer doesn’t quite look on par with his reputation when looking solely at stats. One of the reasons for this is his style of play. Unitas would stand tall in the pocket and deliver deep strikes under pressure. It is well-known nowadays that performance under pressure is high variance, and it is hard to maintain a consistent level of production when constantly pressured. Johnny U was almost always under pressure, sometimes just to show the defense he wasn’t afraid. He walked a tightrope, which resulted in high volatility in his measured performance. Also, it’s pretty clear when watching a football game of recent vintage that many quarterbacks are doing everything they can to maximize their passer rating, even if that doesn’t mean they are actually trying to maximize their chances of winning. Playing to the stats (often incorporated into contract incentives) often distorts a player’s proper risk tolerance. Even though metrics like passer rating correlate to winning in a general sense, putting a dollar amount on them gets us awfully close to a Goodhart type situation. Unitas didn’t play to maximize his rank in any column not labeled “win.” It didn’t always work out, but that was the value system of the era.

Patrick Mahomes leads all players in TAYP+, despite playing in the most pass-happy era in history. He also ranks sixth in VAL/P, with four players above him gaining most of their value in the 1940s, and the fifth player retiring after the 1960 season. The man is a unicorn.

Incorporating leverage into the equation brings us to a ranking that more closely mirrors legacies attached to each quarterback. For instance, Roger Staubach ranks 18th in VAL, while Terry Bradshaw ranks 39th. However, when we account for championship leverage, Bradshaw jumps to seventh, leapfrogging Staubach in 17th. I never felt the two were particularly close in terms of play on the field, but voters for The Athletic‘s NFL 100 countdown recently placed the Dodger at 78 and the Blonde Bomber at 69. Meanwhile, a gold jacket likely awaits Eli Manning, almost solely based on two playoff runs. Postseason performance counts for a great deal.

Including leverage (in a way it is not meant to be used, mind you) produces some wacky results because of how much weight it gives postseason play. Plunkett ranks 12th when sorting by pLev, and I do not know a soul who would ever rank him that high. Similarly, Joe Flacco offsets a career of lackluster regular season performance with stellar postseason play. He ranks 16th, ahead of Staubach, Ben Roethlisberger, and Jim Kelly. It doesn’t get any better when using retro leverage. See if you can spot Tobin Rote. Now look right below him.

To mitigate the effects of incorporating leverage, I figured I’d approach it by still giving a boost for the playoffs, but dampening their severity. Thus, instead of using actual leverage figures as weights (e.g., 204.8 for 2010 vs. 131.4 for 1970), I will use one tenth of the calculated leverage to weigh postseason performance. (so 20.4 and 13.1, instead). I think the results are, in many ways, closer to how the general populous would rank the quarterbacks. Because of that, let’s call it, the GOAT Table.

The GOAT Table

The GOAT Table contains every quarterback with at least 2000 career plays in the regular season and playoffs combined, as well as a retro leverage-adjusted value greater than 1500. We’re trying to look for the great here, not feel bad for Ronnie Cahill. Read the table thus: Tom Brady has had 13704 plays and produced a VAL (from the table above, for comparison’s sake) of 15264. His career VAL when including 10% of championship leverage is 36479, and his VAL when incorporating 10% of retro-adjusted championship leverage is 36484. The table is sorted by the last column, but you can change it, of course.

Player	Ply	VAL	VAL+L	VAL+R
Tom Brady	13704	15264	36479	36484
Joe Montana	7004	12270	33555	35058
Peyton Manning	11213	17523	27540	27546
Otto Graham	3429	11171	13165	20104
Sid Luckman	2060	8885	10366	19812
Steve Young	5822	10428	19270	19734
Drew Brees	12259	14822	19633	19633
Dan Marino	9653	12695	18022	18349
Aaron Rodgers	8557	11604	17714	17714
John Elway	9324	5302	16710	17412
Terry Bradshaw	5184	3755	13930	16746
Kurt Warner	5009	5683	16005	16082
Brett Favre	12175	7256	15730	15913
Troy Aikman	5869	3476	15107	15587
Sammy Baugh	3427	8544	9446	15215
Bart Starr	3875	4464	8739	15015
Roger Staubach	4228	7343	12361	14558
Johnny Unitas	6134	8838	10745	14333
Matt Ryan	8710	6115	12528	12528
Norm Van Brocklin	3104	8271	9245	12441
Ken Anderson	5476	8724	11720	12113
Daryle Lamonica	3188	5012	9052	11904
Ben Roethlisberger	9717	6896	11807	11807
Russell Wilson	6115	4672	11774	11774
Fran Tarkenton	7962	10030	10843	11159
Dan Fouts	6454	8093	10155	10427
Philip Rivers	9426	8067	10021	10021
Charlie Conerly	3211	2941	4297	9638
Jim Kelly	6020	3891	9258	9512
Patrick Mahomes	2287	4318	9180	9180
Ken Stabler	4579	2397	6258	8653
Tobin Rote	3654	177	1790	8281
Len Dawson	4486	5883	6889	7620
Jim Plunkett	4716	-415	6962	7571
Sonny Jurgensen	4696	7405	7518	7518
Donovan McNabb	7097	3871	7016	7022
Jim McMahon	3324	1886	6605	6931
Doug Williams	3003	1754	6235	6824
Joe Namath	4108	4226	5847	6785
Mark Rypien	3096	2329	6154	6337
Phil Simms	5806	992	6008	6331
Bob Griese	4261	3483	5235	6255
John Hadl	5323	3545	4217	6089
Steve McNair	5847	3254	6043	6059
John Brodie	5018	4805	5507	5981
Tony Romo	5038	5332	5852	5852
Bernie Kosar	4118	2011	5398	5768
Rich Gannon	5300	3052	5608	5617
Colin Kaepernick	2461	752	5580	5580
Y.A. Tittle	4991	4797	5463	5463
Joe Theismann	4553	2836	4685	5102
Jake Delhomme	3532	482	4967	4967
Jeff Garcia	4570	4007	4929	4929
Billy Kilmer	3638	2506	3882	4715
Bobby Layne	4445	2959	3640	4626
Nick Foles	2492	-272	4576	4576
Warren Moon	8286	2999	4370	4444
Frank Ryan	2681	1743	2575	4443
Trent Green	4304	3817	4363	4363
Craig Morton	4673	1571	3548	4278
Bert Jones	3111	3935	4097	4159
Joe Flacco	7320	-2015	4133	4133
Mark Brunell	5908	2432	3978	4001
Jeff Hostetler	3007	1551	3865	3992
Daunte Culpepper	4173	2095	3595	3609
Eli Manning	9292	545	3567	3567
Jim Hart	5603	3420	3455	3478
Boomer Esiason	6102	2889	3382	3398
Dak Prescott	2815	2473	3235	3235
Earl Morrall	3217	2014	2739	3150
Carson Palmer	7076	2582	3135	3135
Roman Gabriel	5282	3087	3133	3133
Jim Everett	5632	2472	3037	3062
Randall Cunningham	5985	1593	3011	3050
Matt Hasselbeck	6505	1133	3008	3008
Neil O'Donnell	4005	866	2853	2937
Steve Grogan	4398	2325	2751	2868
Brad Johnson	5098	910	2802	2803
Deshaun Watson	2397	2186	2686	2686
Cam Newton	6048	542	2665	2665
Kirk Cousins	4240	2306	2611	2611
Don Meredith	2859	916	1850	2552
Matthew Stafford	7083	2312	2549	2549
Chad Pennington	3057	1582	2477	2477
Danny White	3750	779	2198	2424
Matt Schaub	3816	2324	2397	2397
Andrew Luck	4165	1450	2288	2288
Michael Vick	4595	1190	1897	1897
Billy Wade	2929	1384	1553	1828
Marc Bulger	3675	1203	1605	1605
Greg Landry	3064	1499	1569	1569
Ron Jaworski	5049	440	1310	1548

As you can see, using this method puts Brady and Montana on top, with Manning in distant third. I believe that is how many modern fans view their positions, while older fans want Unitas or Otto Graham in the mix, and fans who love the Eighties want to acknowledge Dan Marino. I’ve already talked about Unitas and why his placement statistically tends to be so far from consensus. Graham’s placement is around where most people have him, though I tend to put him lower based on the incredible confluence of advantages he enjoyed. I do not believe another quarterback ever benefited as much from his surroundings, and maybe only Sid Luckman comes close. That isn’t to say they weren’t both great; they were.

Marino still rates highly here, but his lack of postseason production hurts him. He didn’t get the coaching boost Drew Brees did, and his weapons started off strong but were not great by the back half of his career. Brees also has put up very strong numbers in the postseason. Much of the time, however, he seemed to save his mistakes for the worst moments.

When incorporating a modified version of leverage, Aaron Rodgers and Elway end up side by side, which is fun. They are two of the most naturally gifted players every to grace the position, and they both had periods of statistical doldrums when paired with coaches who were dead set against offensive innovation. They also stand out on highlight reels for what they could do at their best, and many seem to ignore the fact that maybe they weren’t always consistent.

Russell Wilson continues to rise up the ranks, and I think he remains one of the most underappreciated passers in history. Regardless of what they give him to work with on offense, he goes out and makes play after play.

There is something very satisfying about seeing Philip Rivers and Dan Fouts right by each other no matter how you sort the table. There is a cosmic lesson here, I am sure of it.

The thing that stands out to me the most, from these tables, and from the (literally) hundreds of tables from studies I will never publish, is that there is no way to take an honest approach to the numbers and end up with a list that matches your personal, subjective ranking. There are too many factors that we are capable of attempting to account for when we rattle off our top tens, twenties, or, if you are an insane person, thousands.

There is supporting cast, and how much they raise or lower a quarterback. Not to mention how much a quarterback’s own level of play elevates that of his teammates (possibly causing us to knock the QB for having great weapons, when those weapons would have been merely good without him). It isn’t just Rodgers playing behind a superb pass blocking line, or Manning throwing to celebrated receivers. It’s also Montana playing in an innovative offense, Brady playing for a coach who designed the offense around the team’s strengths rather than try to cookie cutter it, or Mahomes pulling the trigger on plays crafted by a man who is consistently on the cutting edge of schematic trends. It’s John Harbaugh calling an aggressive game that gives his offense more shots at success, versus Pete Carroll setting up his team with third and long and praying his quarterback can bail them out, knowing full well that they aren’t going for it on fourth down.

There are opponents to consider. When you play long enough, you probably play a reasonable number of defenses to regress your average toward the mean, but it’s the outliers that make kings or take crowns. Carson Palmer had to play some very good Pittsburgh and Baltimore defenses early on, before moving to Arizona late in life and facing the Seahawks twice a year. John Brodie is probably the poster child for this, with top notch Packers, Lions, Bears, and Rams defenses twice apiece. Opponents matter, although I am not certain of the extent to which they matter. Ideally, I would run an SRS-style analysis on defensive performance against quarterbacks and then use the average of that and league-average as a baseline. ^[2]Using league average mixed with opponent average would be my simple way of considering the era and the opponents, while keeping in mind my belief that quarterbacks own their own numbers, for the most … Continue reading

We account for performance at home versus away, and to what extent those things matter. Part of that includes weather, which I have never seen well-quantified but still believe must make some sort of difference. When studying weather, we must also account for homefield advantage (or away field disadvantage) and the quality of opposing defense. It does not seem to be a coincidence that a significant portion of the most dominant sustained defenses in history belong to teams that play outside in cold, wet, or windy cities. If we count performance in bad weather without considering the caliber of defense, we may be double counting for or against someone, which seems like a bad thing, right?

There is, of course, what I call highlight reel syndrome, the football fan’s interpretation of the availability heuristic. The amazing plays stick out in our minds, even more so if they occurred in prime time. The incredible plays from Mahomes, Rodgers, and Elway that few could ever come close to making represent a small percentage of their total plays, but they eat a large piece of our mental pie. We don’t talk about Bert Jones making the same types of plays, not necessarily because he wasn’t as talented, but because Jones doesn’t have the same press. Had he played on the Steelers or Raiders, we would never hear the end of how amazing he was and how you “just had to see him play.” Instead, he became the heir to the greatest quarterback in history up to that point and was never able to achieve the same level of success in a more competitive league.

Along with highlight reel syndrome, we internally account for stylistic preference. Some of us prefer the Joe Namath, Norm Van Brocklin types who stand in the pocket and drop bombs over defenses, going on scorched earth campaigns and leaving nothing alive in their wake. Others like the playmakers like Brett Favre and Elway who make uncanny throws from a variety of platforms. Call it arm talent or whatever you want, it results in many fans adoring these heroes of the gridiron. You may, instead, love watching scramblers like Fran Tarkenton and Russell Wilson, running around to make a big play downfield. Or, perhaps, you favor the elite runners like Michael Vick and Lamar Jackson, who embarrass defenders in the open field. I have always had an affinity for the passers who march down the field with surgical precision, like Brady and Manning, exploiting every hole in the zone and every mismatch in man until defenses have emptied their pores trying to keep up with the precision blows. Maybe you have a soft spot for the guys who fight tooth and nail in hopeless situations, pulling victories seemingly out of thin air, like Bobby Layne and Jack Kemp. Whatever your preference, there is a quarterback for you.

There is also institutional racism that has plagued the league like it has plagued the nation. Historically, black quarterbacks were given far fewer opportunities, an embarrassingly short leash in the event they actually got a chance, and heavily coded criticism when they did things their white peers got away with. After Fritz Pollard was effectively blackballed from the league, black passers had a long uphill battle to receive even half the opportunities afforded to their white counterparts. Star tailback Kenny Washington got nary a chance to pass as a pro, and George Taliaferro was used primarily as a runner. Joe Gilliam arguably outplayed the Hall of Fame incumbent ahead of him on the depth chart, and his seven career starts were almost certainly fewer than his talent merited. Doug Williams gave a fledgling Buccaneers a level of success they hadn’t seen before—and wouldn’t see again until Tony Dungy and a handful fistful of legendary defenders turned the tides of the franchise. Despite being the only one to lead the team to any success, he was the 40th highest paid quarterback in a 28-team league. He didn’t hold out and waited until his contract expired to ask for the pay raise he earned and deserved. Tampa brass responded by telling him to hit the road. Williams didn’t underperform and lose his job because of poor play; he simply asked to be paid in a manner concomitant with his production. Despite a stellar collegiate career at Washington, Warren Moon had to spend six years utterly dominating the CFL before the NFL would give him a chance to show his stuff as the field general. He started his career with the Shield at 28, having been robbed of years out of his athletic prime. So when you see his numbers in any of the columns on the tables in this series, remember that racism likely took a half decade of production from those totals. Even now, in the enlightened society we pretend exists, demonstrative behavior that earns white quarterbacks the leadership label often results in black quarterbacks being called selfish or immature. And heaven forbid he enjoy listening to rap music.

Maybe the biggest reason stats don’t align with our subjective rankings is because subjective rankings rely heavily on value beliefs and stats are (and must be) silent on those questions. “Peak vs. Longevity” is not a question that yields to statistical inquiry. Ditto “Clutch vs. Choker” or any number of other values we have that inform the way we interpret both what we see on the field and what we take from the numbers we study. Even our choice of numbers to use speaks to our beliefs. I am using TAY/P, in part, because I created it and I like it, but primarily because of an earnest belief that it is the premier metric for comparing across a timeline this long. I wouldn’t use this as the primus inter pares when comparing quarterbacks of recent vintage, but I would certainly include it in my analysis. ^[3]As I have stated in previous articles, I like to use the proprietary numbers from Football Outsiders, Pro Football Focus, and ESPN, in addition to publicly available and transparent stats like EPA/P, … Continue reading

That’s all from me. Enjoy.