The following post attributes authorship to Bryan Frye, but everything under the line comes from the mind of Adam Steele. We thank him for his contributions to the site and to football discussion.
For the second week in a row, the worst quarterbacks had more extreme performances than did the best. By absolute value, the eight worst games this season have been more extreme than the single best game. I don’t have a good explanation for this other than sheer randomness.
| # | QB Week 2 | DYAR | QBR | zDYAR | zQBR | zAvg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Derek Carr | 143 | 79.3 | 1.38 | 1.39 | 1.39 |
| 2 | Aaron Rodgers | 144 | 76.9 | 1.39 | 1.28 | 1.34 |
| 3 | Patrick Mahomes | 148 | 73.1 | 1.44 | 1.11 | 1.27 |
| 4 | Kirk Cousins | 77 | 78.0 | 0.68 | 1.33 | 1.01 |
| 5 | Sam Darnold | 66 | 78.1 | 0.56 | 1.34 | 0.95 |
| 6 | Tom Brady | 124 | 63.4 | 1.18 | 0.66 | 0.92 |
| 7 | Teddy Bridgewater | 119 | 61.8 | 1.13 | 0.59 | 0.86 |
| 8 | Daniel Jones | 68 | 68.4 | 0.59 | 0.89 | 0.74 |
| 9 | Kyler Murray | 79 | 65.7 | 0.70 | 0.77 | 0.73 |
| 10 | Matthew Stafford | 94 | 62.1 | 0.86 | 0.60 | 0.73 |
| 11 | Ryan Tannehill | 54 | 69.5 | 0.44 | 0.94 | 0.69 |
| 12 | Lamar Jackson | 65 | 59.2 | 0.55 | 0.47 | 0.51 |
| 13 | Jimmy Garoppolo | 57 | 55.4 | 0.47 | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| 14 | Russell Wilson | 84 | 48.8 | 0.76 | -0.01 | 0.37 |
| 15 | Baker Mayfield | 38 | 54.8 | 0.27 | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| 16 | Jalen Hurts | 4 | 62.5 | -0.10 | 0.62 | 0.26 |
| 17 | Josh Allen | -22 | 63.3 | -0.37 | 0.66 | 0.14 |
| 18 | Jared Goff | -8 | 56.4 | -0.22 | 0.34 | 0.06 |
| 19 | Carson Wentz | -28 | 57.3 | -0.44 | 0.38 | -0.03 |
| 20 | Taylor Heinicke | 52 | 35.7 | 0.42 | -0.62 | -0.10 |
| 21 | Dak Prescott | 19 | 42.4 | 0.06 | -0.31 | -0.12 |
| 22 | Ben Roethlisberger | 71 | 29.6 | 0.62 | -0.90 | -0.14 |
| 23 | Justin Herbert | 5 | 34.2 | -0.08 | -0.68 | -0.38 |
| 24 | Mac Jones | -56 | 28.8 | -0.73 | -0.93 | -0.83 |
| 25 | Matt Ryan | -97 | 36.6 | -1.17 | -0.57 | -0.87 |
| 26 | Jacoby Brissett | -130 | 37.2 | -1.52 | -0.55 | -1.03 |
| 27 | Trevor Lawrence | -112 | 30.7 | -1.33 | -0.85 | -1.09 |
| 28 | Davis Mills | -38 | 10.1 | -0.54 | -1.79 | -1.17 |
| 29 | Jameis Winston | -138 | 21.6 | -1.61 | -1.26 | -1.44 |
| 30 | Joe Burrow | -158 | 15.9 | -1.82 | -1.53 | -1.67 |
| 31 | Justin Fields | -122 | 4.4 | -1.44 | -2.06 | -1.75 |
| 32 | Zach Wilson | -187 | 8.8 | -2.13 | -1.85 | -1.99 |
Derek Carr scored the highest in both metrics, which is surprising in that his feat came against an allegedly great Steelers defense. Early in the season, DYAR has no opponent adjustments and I’m not sure how QBR does theirs with such a small sample size. Regardless, Carr thrived on deep passes which has been a weakness throughout his career. If he suddenly developed a great deep ball, the Raiders offense will be scary this year.
Aaron Rodgers and Jameis Winston essentially swap places from last week. Rodgers is back to his usual self, and the operator of the Jameis rollercoaster must have fallen asleep at the switch.
Sam Darnold at #5 is odd for a couple reasons. One, he’s Sam Darnold and we’re not used to seeing him near the top in any QB ranking. Two, he scores much better in QBR despite having the type of game QBR usually hates – lots of short passes to wide open receivers.
Russell Wilson‘s placing at #14 is worth a closer look. He had a great game by conventional stats, a good game by DYAR, and a below average game by QBR. Wilson’s Y/A was padded by two 60+ yard completions but his success rate was relatively poor, and that tends to hurt in advanced metrics. But the sacks he took really hurt him in QBR, which generally levies a much stiffer penalty than DYAR. Specifically, the sack he took in overtime was basically the worst possible play a QB could make that isn’t a turnover, and it was done in a maximum leverage situation.
Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen both score much higher in QBR because their rushing contributions are given significant weight, while in DYAR the baseline for a successful QB rush is so high as to severely mute the opportunity for accumulating value.
And what about the extreme negative performances mentioned earlier? In week two there was a clear pattern: rookies. Four of the six worst games this week were authored by NFL newbies. This is forgivable and says almost nothing about their long term futures, but it does seem clear that all of them face a steep learning curve to achieve professional success.
At the macro level, the extreme TD/INT splits posted by the league in week one fell back to Earth in week two. This week saw 49 touchdown passes and 34 interceptions, harkening back to the bygone era of the early 2010’s. Still, the league is completing over 2/3 of its pass attempts in 2021, which would have been unthinkable throughout the vast majority of NFL history.
What stands out to you?