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Two years ago, I wrote a 6-part series describing how to adjust passer rating for era. I posted the career results in Part V, and the whole series is background reading for anyone who wants to learn how to adjust passer rating for era.

Last year, I updated those numbers based on the 2017 results. Earlier this year, I posted the 2018 single-season results, and today, I am going to update the career ratings.

Here’s how to read the table below. Otto Graham threw 2,626 passes, and played from 1946 to 1955. His actual passer rating was 86.6, but his era adjusted passer rating was 95.2, the best in pro football history. The final column shows whether a player is in the Hall of Fame, is a HOF lock (attributed to five players), is not in the Hall of Fame, or has never been eligible for the HOF.

RankPlayerAttFirst YrLast YearAct PREA PRHOF
1Otto Graham26261946195586.695.2HOF
2Sid Luckman1744193919507593.9HOF
3Sammy Baugh29951937195272.292HOF
4Len Dawson37411957197582.686.6HOF
5Steve Young41491985199996.886.5HOF
6Roger Staubach29581969197983.484.6HOF
7Joe Montana53911979199492.383.8HOF
8Aaron Rodgers549220052018103.182.9HOF Lock
9Frankie Albert15641946195273.581.8no
10Norm Van Brocklin28951949196075.181.6HOF
11Peyton Manning93801998201596.581HOF Lock
12Sonny Jurgensen42621957197482.680.3HOF
13Ken Anderson44751971198681.979.8no
14Kurt Warner40701998200993.779.8HOF
15Tom Brady93752000201897.679.7HOF Lock
16Fran Tarkenton64671961197880.479.7HOF
17Drew Brees97832001201897.779.4HOF Lock
18Tony Romo43352004201697.179.2never el
19Bob Griese34291967198077.179HOF
20Bart Starr31491956197180.578.7HOF
21Russell Wilson326120122018100.378.4never el
22Y.A. Tittle43951948196474.377.8HOF
23Johnny Unitas51861956197378.277.2HOF
24Bert Jones25511973198278.277.2no
25Dan Marino83581983199986.476.9HOF
26Daryle Lamonica26011963197472.976.5no
27Philip Rivers70002004201895.676.1never el
28Charlie Conerly28331948196168.275.7no
29Chad Pennington24712000201090.175.4no
30Dan Fouts56041973198780.275.4HOF
31Frank Ryan21331958197077.675.1no
32Ben Roethlisberger71682004201894.275HOF Lock
33Jim Kelly47791986199684.474.9HOF
34Neil Lomax31531981198882.774.9no
35Bob Waterfield16171945195261.674.6HOF
36Matt Ryan62012008201894.974.6never el
37Jeff Garcia36761999200987.574.3no
38Danny White29501976198881.774.3no
39Daunte Culpepper31991999200987.874.1no
40Roman Gabriel44981962197774.373.6no
41Greg Landry23001968198472.973.6no
42Rich Gannon42061987200484.773.5no
43Earl Morrall26891956197674.173.4no
44Brett Favre10169199120108673.3HOF
45Ken Stabler37931970198475.373.3HOF
46Tom Flores17151960196967.673.1no
47Bernie Kosar33651985199681.873no
48Trent Green3740199720088673no
49Craig Morton37861965198273.572.6no
50Billy Kilmer29841961197871.672.3no
51Dave Krieg53111980199881.572.3no
52Joe Theismann36021974198577.472.3no
53Kirk Cousins2702201220189572.2never el
54Randall Cunningham42891985200181.572.1no
55Ken O'Brien36021984199380.472no
56Mark Brunell4640199420118471.9no
57Boomer Esiason52051984199781.171.7no
58Matt Schaub32812004201889.171.7never el
59Don Meredith23081960196874.871.6no
60Tony Eason15641983199079.771.5no
61Donovan McNabb53741999201185.671.3no
62Gary Danielson19321976198876.671.2no
63Warren Moon68231984200080.971.2HOF
64Troy Aikman47151989200081.671.1HOF
65Neil O'Donnell32291991200381.871.1no
66John Hadl46871962197767.471no
67Brian Sipe34391974198374.870.9no
68John Brodie44911957197372.370.9no
69Billy Wade25231954196672.270.8no
70Milt Plum24191957196972.270.7no
71Steve Bartkowski34561975198675.470.7no
72Phil Simms46471979199378.570.6no
73Brad Johnson43261994200882.570.4no
74John Elway72501983199879.970.4HOF
75Terry Bradshaw39011970198370.970.3HOF
76Bill Munson19821964197971.570.3no
77Steve McNair45441995200782.870.3no
78Bobby Layne37001948196263.470.1HOF
79Jeff Hostetler23381985199780.570no
80David Garrard22812002201085.869.9no
81Steve Beuerlein33281988200380.369.8no
82Marc Bulger31712002200984.469.8no
83Carson Palmer63072004201787.969.8never el
84Jeff George39671990200180.469.7no
85Jim McMahon25731982199678.269.7no
86Brian Griese27961998200882.769.6no
87Bobby Hebert3121198519967869.4no
88Mark Rypien26131988200178.969.4no
89Bill Kenney2430198019887769.1no
90Bill Nelsen19051963197270.268.9no
91Jim Everett49231986199778.668.8no
92Chris Chandler40051988200479.168.8no
93Joe Namath37621965197765.568.7HOF
94Elvis Grbac24451994200179.668.5no
95Ron Jaworski41171974198972.867.8no
96Alex Smith49412005201887.367.8never el
97Andy Dalton39212011201888.867.7never el
98Matthew Stafford54052009201888.467.7never el
99Colin Kaepernick16922011201688.967.6never el
100Andrew Luck32902012201889.567.5never el
101George Blanda40071949197560.667.4HOF
102Jim Harbaugh39181987200077.667.3no
103Steve DeBerg50241978199874.267.3no
104Charley Johnson33921961197569.267no
105Wade Wilson24281981199875.666.9no
106Matt Hasselbeck53301999201582.466.8never el
107Nick Foles15812012201888.566.7never el
108Jake Delhomme29321999201181.366.6no
109Jay Cutler49202006201785.366.5never el
110Jeff Blake3241199220057866.5no
111Marcus Mariota16052015201889.466.5never el
112Tommy Kramer36511977199072.866.4no
113Lynn Dickey31251971198570.966.3no
114Jim Hart50761966198466.666.1no
115Archie Manning36421971198467.166no
116Steve Grogan35931975199069.665.9no
117Derek Carr28002014201888.865.8never el
118Erik Kramer22991987199976.665.8no
119Babe Parilli33301952196959.665.7no
120Doug Flutie21511986200576.365.6no
121Chris Miller28921987199974.965.4no
122Ryan Tannehill2911201220188765.3never el
123Aaron Brooks29632000200678.565.2no
124Stan Humphries25161989199775.865.2no
125Eli Manning79722004201884.165.2never el
126Charlie Batch16041998201277.265.1no
127Jim Plunkett37011971198667.565.1no
128Eddie LeBaron17961952196361.465.1no
129Cam Newton38922011201886.465.1never el
130Drew Bledsoe67171993200677.165.1no
131Mike Livingston17511968197963.365.1no
132Joe Ferguson45191973199068.465no
133Jason Campbell25182006201481.764.9never el
134Jay Fiedler17171995200577.164.8no
135Jameis Winston19222015201887.864.7never el
136Steve Bono17011985199975.364.7no
137Scott Mitchell23461991200175.364.6no
138Byron Leftwich16052003201278.964.5no
139Jon Kitna44421997201177.464.3no
140Sam Bradford29672010201884.564.3never el
141Michael Vick32172001201580.464.3never el
142Joe Flacco56702008201884.164.1never el
143Vinny Testaverde6701198720077564no
144Jim Zorn31491976198767.364no
145Tobin Rote29071950196656.863.9no
146Kyle Orton27122005201481.263.9never el
147Don Majkowski19051987199672.963.9no
148Doug Williams25071978198969.463.7no
149Vince Ferragamo16151977198670.163.6no
150Norm Snead43531961197665.563.5no
151Bubby Brister22121986200072.363.5no
152Ed Brown19871954196562.863.3no
153Tim Couch17141999200375.163.2no
154Jay Schroeder28081985199471.762.9no
155Richard Todd29671976198567.662.4no
156Rodney Peete23461989200473.362.3no
157Jack Kemp30731957196957.362.2no
158Jake Plummer43501997200674.662no
159Gus Frerotte31061994200874.261.9no
160Case Keenum18442012201884.561.7never el
161Eric Hipple15461980198968.761.6no
162Tony Banks23561996200572.461.4no
163Ryan Fitzpatrick42852005201881.161.3never el
164Frank Tripucka17451949196352.261.3no
165Josh McCown26282002201879.761never el
166David Carr22672002201274.960.7no
167Kerry Collins62611995201173.860.6no
168Cotton Davidson17521954196854.960.5no
169Matt Cassel26842005201878.460.4never el
170Dan Pastorini30551971198359.159.9no
171Mike Tomczak23371985199968.959.9no
172Josh Freeman20482009201577.659.8never el
173Marc Wilson20811980199067.759.5no
174Kordell Stewart23581995200570.759.2no
175Trent Dilfer31721994200770.258.2no
176Blake Bortles26322014201880.657.8never el
177Chad Henne19592008201875.557.5never el
178Billy Joe Tolliver17071989199967.757.3no
179Dave Brown16341992200167.956.6no
180Rex Grossman15622003201271.455.8no
181Joey Harrington25382002200769.455.3no
182Mike Pagel15091982199363.355.3no
183Jack Trudeau16441986199563.355.1no
184Kyle Boller15192003201169.555.1no
185Mark Sanchez23202009201873.254.9never el
186Mark Malone16481980198961.954.3no
187Derek Anderson16742006201870.453.6never el
188Mike Phipps17991970198152.653.2no
189Rick Mirer20431993200363.552.4no

Eli Manning remains one of the most fascinating players in NFL history. He is now clearly below-average for his entire career when it comes to passer rating (and also below his father), which admittedly is not one of Manning’s better stats. [1]Manning has a Passer Rating+ Index of 97 on PFR, compared to an ANY/A+ Index of 100. But there are no quarterbacks in the HOF who were below-average for their career in passer rating. And it’s even more interesting to compare Manning to two other quarterbacks who entered the NFL in 2004: Philip Rivers and Tony Romo.

The graph below shows the same data as the table above, listing all players with 1500+ pass attempts. The X-Axis displays the first year for each player, while the Y-Axis shows their era-adjusted passer rating. The gold dots represent HOFers, the red dots the HOF locks, and the black dots everyone else. Oh, and along the vertical line for the 2004 year, I have color-coded the circles for Romo, Rivers, and Manning in Cowboys, Chargers, and Giants colors. If Manning one days makes the Hall of Fame, he would be the biggest outlier there, at least according to this graph:

The notable non-HOFers on this list are the same ones we always see: Ken Anderson, Bert Jones, Daryle Lamonica, Charlie Conerly, Chad Pennington, Frank Ryan, Neil Lomax, Jeff Garcia, Danny White, Daunte Culpepper, and Roman Gabriel each threw 2,000 passes and rank in the top 40 in era-adjusted passer rating.  Of that group, Anderson, Lamonica, and Conerly have the best HOF cases, in my opinion.

What stands out to you?

References

References
1 Manning has a Passer Rating+ Index of 97 on PFR, compared to an ANY/A+ Index of 100.
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