We have already looked at postseason performance in single games and single seasons. Today, we’re finally having a go at full playoff careers. All of the metrics I am using today have been explained, in great detail, in the previous four posts, so I am not going to belabor the point here. I will, however, remind the reader that Total Adjusted Yards per Play, and its many variants, is just one approach to measuring quarterback performance. It doesn’t account for weather, and it is not adjusted for the strength of opposing defenses (not yet, at least). Moreover, these numbers are based on box score stats and do not include more granular information, like time on the clock, field position, and yards to go on a set of downs. A four yard pass on 1st and 10 is much less valuable than a four yard pass on 3rd and 3, but TAY/P treats them equally. This is by design, because the goal of this metric is to do the best possible job of comparing quarterbacks across eras. I can’t do that with DVOA or EPA/P, because the play by play data just don’t go back far enough. However, when I looked into the correlations of TAY/P with more granular metrics, the r value tended to land between .93 and .94 (even for ESPN’s QBR, with its often wacky use of win probability). This suggests, to me, that most of these issues smooth themselves over in the long run.

The Table

The table below contains every quarterback with at least 50 postseason plays since 1936 and is initially sorted by VAL. Read it thus: Joe Montana produced 5633 Total Adjusted Yards on 843 plays for 6.68 TAY/P. That figure was 2.09 better than league average, giving him 1765 VAL. When only including games in which he produced positive VAL, his score raises to 2070. Montana’s leverage-weighted VAL was 230506, and his retro-adjusted VAL is 245538. He had a TAYP+ of 121.4 and a Z Value of 1203.

Player	TAY	Ply	TAY/P	VAL/P	VAL	PV	pLev	pRet	TAYP+	ZVAL
Joe Montana	5633	843	6.68	2.09	1765	2070	230506	245538	121.4	1203
Tom Brady	11876	1949	6.09	0.71	1383	2306	225974	226028	108.0	1034
Kurt Warner	3633	506	7.18	2.26	1142	1259	114640	115411	122.3	753
Terry Bradshaw	3163	532	5.95	2.13	1132	1367	113064	141229	119.2	681
Aaron Rodgers	5745	850	6.76	1.16	989	1211	70990	70990	112.2	693
Peyton Manning	6560	1099	5.97	0.82	898	1901	109147	109201	107.3	536
John Elway	4472	784	5.70	1.08	849	1375	122562	129582	111.0	574
Ken Stabler	2255	387	5.83	2.12	819	891	46795	70747	116.1	416
Steve Young	3542	593	5.97	1.28	757	1022	95988	100626	113.4	531
Brett Favre	4968	879	5.65	0.84	737	1399	92108	93938	108.8	516
Bart Starr	1742	244	7.14	2.92	712	728	49863	112618	122.3	362
Daryle Lamonica	1756	285	6.16	2.30	654	1052	46937	75459	115.6	296
Drew Brees	4925	790	6.23	0.81	642	990	54537	54537	108.0	421
Troy Aikman	3305	568	5.82	1.12	638	1168	122686	127488	112.1	458
Russell Wilson	3912	583	6.71	1.03	598	957	77008	77008	111.3	441
Jim Plunkett	1931	312	6.19	1.72	536	696	79135	85221	117.3	361
Jeff Hostetler	1208	146	8.27	3.55	519	519	28330	29602	137.3	363
Colin Kaepernick	1718	224	7.67	2.16	483	532	53120	53120	123.4	350
Sid Luckman	732	112	6.54	3.60	403	561	18842	113306	123.9	179
Matt Hasselbeck	2620	450	5.82	0.85	382	464	22566	22566	108.2	247
Patrick Mahomes	2477	361	6.86	1.04	374	670	52359	52359	111.6	278
Ken Anderson	1247	206	6.05	1.81	373	418	33686	37620	117.5	240
Dan Marino	3725	724	5.15	0.51	368	1011	56949	60219	105.4	261
Joe Theismann	1514	256	5.91	1.43	366	534	22154	26325	113.9	238
Bernie Kosar	1706	300	5.69	1.11	333	558	37206	40906	110.5	210
Tobin Rote	807	112	7.21	2.83	317	411	19297	84205	121.3	159
Matt Ryan	2514	399	6.30	0.77	309	631	67219	67219	110.7	286
Ben Roethlisberger	4957	869	5.70	0.34	296	778	52071	52071	103.7	217
Philip Rivers	2661	445	5.98	0.66	293	528	22472	22472	107.2	215
Nick Foles	1557	224	6.95	1.27	285	373	51328	51328	114.2	212
Alex Smith	1998	306	6.53	0.91	277	378	16755	16755	109.8	199
Mark Rypien	1457	259	5.63	0.97	252	359	40768	42599	109.3	161
Jeff George	928	143	6.49	1.71	244	258	9796	9917	117.3	165
Lynn Dickey	517	63	8.21	3.70	233	233	4313	6008	136.9	155
Vinny Testaverde	1198	203	5.90	1.13	230	328	11361	11656	112.2	165
Sammy Baugh	548	108	5.07	2.12	229	370	11308	69000	117.7	127
Mark Sanchez	1133	172	6.59	1.32	226	320	18754	18754	112.5	143
Joe Flacco	3046	525	5.80	0.42	222	793	63691	63691	105.9	207
Jim McMahon	1052	187	5.63	1.08	203	426	49211	52473	112.6	157
Eli Manning	2535	447	5.67	0.43	193	533	32146	32146	104.9	145
Dak Prescott	860	117	7.35	1.64	192	192	9542	9542	119.1	149
Dan Fouts	1540	307	5.02	0.59	181	532	22429	25147	106.0	123
Charlie Conerly	619	108	5.73	1.62	175	365	15313	68724	114.4	103
Don Strock	465	68	6.84	2.45	167	267	12807	13661	125.2	114
Roger Staubach	2208	547	4.04	0.30	163	752	51811	73775	102.7	99
Otto Graham	1806	398	4.54	0.40	160	451	21542	90926	102.9	76
Tim Tebow	522	67	7.79	2.36	158	258	6596	6596	124.9	111
Daunte Culpepper	931	162	5.75	0.96	156	429	16559	16698	109.2	99
Johnny Unitas	1253	268	4.68	0.58	156	432	20625	56506	104.7	84
John Brodie	729	150	4.86	0.99	148	247	8494	13234	108.8	88
Bob Waterfield	578	139	4.16	1.02	142	320	10034	42956	106.7	62
Billy Kilmer	852	192	4.44	0.73	140	313	15160	23485	105.7	73
Jake Delhomme	1403	257	5.46	0.54	138	483	46229	46229	106.2	106
Frank Reich	668	118	5.66	1.09	129	251	9097	9484	110.9	86
Len Dawson	1111	235	4.73	0.55	129	235	11344	18652	104.4	68
Erik Kramer	815	148	5.51	0.85	126	217	10621	11098	107.9	78
Rich Gannon	1410	271	5.20	0.44	121	471	26763	26853	105.1	92
Tony Eason	558	101	5.52	1.07	108	201	10445	11142	111.0	74
Joe Kapp	676	137	4.93	0.78	106	180	11324	17790	106.6	60
Tommy Maddox	582	103	5.65	0.91	94	120	4424	4424	110.6	73
Chris Chandler	628	113	5.56	0.83	94	166	16570	16968	108.4	63
Mark Malone	435	78	5.58	1.12	87	97	8306	8859	111.5	60
Matthew Stafford	809	129	6.27	0.67	87	127	3242	3242	106.6	57
Marc Bulger	727	132	5.51	0.65	86	148	4882	4882	106.1	54
Bob Griese	984	236	4.17	0.33	77	321	18288	28494	101.8	28
Aaron Brooks	527	96	5.49	0.77	74	74	2019	2044	108.5	55
Mitchell Trubisky	541	81	6.68	0.91	74	74	1889	1889	110.3	55
Dan Pastorini	573	130	4.41	0.53	69	336	12974	13839	105.3	46
Pat Ryan	338	61	5.54	1.08	66	151	4589	4895	109.8	40
Michael Vick	993	189	5.25	0.33	63	220	7701	7701	102.9	36
Jay Cutler	364	57	6.39	1.08	62	152	7787	7787	110.2	39
Cecil Isbell	243	61	3.98	0.96	58	58	1900	11215	107.8	32
Deshaun Watson	1016	168	6.05	0.25	42	115	5408	5408	102.7	30
Frank Ryan	410	88	4.66	0.47	42	182	8739	27415	103.1	18
Randall Cunningham	2090	437	4.78	0.09	39	334	14571	14964	100.8	25
Scott Brunner	317	62	5.11	0.62	38	38	1272	1357	106.1	25
Baker Mayfield	508	80	6.35	0.48	38	97	2481	2481	105.4	29
Blake Bortles	643	107	6.01	0.30	32	99	6678	6678	103.3	24
Babe Parilli	374	74	5.05	0.40	29	114	2560	11701	103.5	17
Bubby Brister	341	66	5.17	0.42	27	81	3875	4133	104.4	20
Taylor Heinicke	330	52	6.35	0.47	25	25	629	629	105.4	19
David Garrard	416	79	5.27	0.29	23	81	3836	3836	103.0	16
Joe Namath	499	125	3.99	0.18	22	170	16433	25817	101.4	12
Jim Hart	322	86	3.74	0.06	6	12	409	637	100.5	3
Matt Schaub	523	95	5.51	0.03	3	15	759	759	100.3	2
Marcus Mariota	519	91	5.70	-0.01	-1	2	45	45	99.9	-1
Earl Morrall	479	119	4.03	-0.02	-2	161	7232	11336	99.9	0
Warren Moon	2141	462	4.63	-0.01	-5	380	13667	14403	99.7	-8
Steve DeBerg	366	80	4.58	-0.07	-5	91	2231	2331	100.3	1
Neil Lomax	256	60	4.27	-0.24	-14	0	0	0	97.6	-9
Tommy Thompson	332	104	3.19	-0.14	-15	140	3652	17451	99.7	-2
Doug Flutie	337	77	4.38	-0.24	-18	90	2240	2294	98.0	-10
Don Meredith	355	91	3.90	-0.20	-19	241	9154	16175	97.3	-17
Ken O'Brien	338	82	4.12	-0.40	-33	18	434	463	96.3	-20
Wade Wilson	1043	235	4.44	-0.19	-44	225	7655	8667	97.7	-36
Roman Gabriel	273	78	3.50	-0.59	-46	0	0	0	95.4	-24
Dave Krieg	1435	324	4.43	-0.15	-48	367	10495	11299	98.6	-31
Bert Jones	242	81	2.99	-0.60	-49	34	1138	1753	95.3	-25
Cam Newton	1700	307	5.54	-0.16	-49	267	20744	20744	97.7	-47
David Woodley	438	109	4.02	-0.48	-53	282	6850	9543	95.2	-35
Kerry Collins	1228	270	4.55	-0.24	-64	365	25240	25504	97.9	-39
Josh Allen	1172	211	5.55	-0.31	-66	108	2767	2767	96.5	-49
Case Keenum	463	93	4.98	-0.73	-68	41	2117	2117	91.8	-51
Neil O'Donnell	1360	302	4.50	-0.23	-70	334	19177	20014	97.9	-42
Bob Lee	210	79	2.66	-0.97	-77	69	9476	14144	91.7	-44
James Harris	138	60	2.30	-1.34	-81	39	2567	4000	89.8	-41
Jim Kelly	2791	614	4.55	-0.13	-81	748	52861	55399	99.2	-34
Norm Van Brocklin	315	107	2.94	-0.76	-82	246	8918	40876	92.8	-51
Trent Dilfer	688	164	4.20	-0.51	-84	44	1108	1125	94.7	-58
Donovan McNabb	3311	697	4.75	-0.13	-92	526	30531	30587	98.4	-76
Steve Fuller	193	64	3.02	-1.44	-92	99	4749	5065	85.1	-63
Arnie Herber	110	67	1.64	-1.39	-93	194	6695	39720	94.8	-23
Trent Green	209	62	3.37	-1.50	-93	88	4531	4531	84.0	-66
Andrew Luck	1973	369	5.35	-0.26	-96	290	7432	7432	97.2	-69
Tony Romo	1042	217	4.80	-0.45	-97	134	4227	4227	96.4	-52
Ryan Tannehill	528	107	4.93	-0.93	-99	46	3203	3203	89.6	-74
T.J. Yates	218	59	3.69	-1.73	-102	45	1155	1155	81.7	-72
Steve McNair	1709	380	4.50	-0.29	-110	262	26793	26948	97.3	-68
Jeff Garcia	1071	245	4.37	-0.45	-111	250	8105	8105	95.0	-82
Doug Williams	746	192	3.89	-0.58	-111	288	43697	49584	93.4	-84
Jared Goff	1179	225	5.24	-0.50	-114	17	439	439	94.3	-85
Jimmy Garoppolo	307	72	4.26	-1.59	-115	0	0	0	82.3	-85
Frankie Albert	207	60	3.45	-1.92	-115	0	0	0	88.7	-45
Vince Ferragamo	775	208	3.73	-0.56	-116	169	10672	11384	94.8	-72
Joe Ferguson	432	128	3.38	-0.93	-119	109	3572	5565	88.4	-99
Steve Bartkowski	393	127	3.09	-1.00	-127	132	5339	5695	91.0	-76
Steve Walsh	197	68	2.90	-1.89	-129	75	1833	1916	79.8	-91
Gary Cuozzo	90	56	1.61	-2.30	-129	0	0	0	79.9	-75
Ron Jaworski	1168	312	3.74	-0.41	-129	245	7407	9793	95.3	-98
Bobby Hebert	378	111	3.41	-1.17	-130	0	0	0	88.9	-82
Boomer Esiason	491	132	3.72	-0.99	-130	148	3619	3781	91.7	-73
Rex Grossman	561	143	3.92	-0.94	-134	28	2728	2728	90.4	-92
George Ratterman	293	80	3.66	-1.68	-135	73	1945	8947	89.9	-54
Chris Miller	208	75	2.77	-1.85	-139	58	1415	1479	82.3	-88
Scott Zolak	100	51	1.96	-2.77	-141	0	0	0	71.6	-96
Chad Pennington	1040	244	4.26	-0.59	-144	293	7507	7507	94.1	-95
Brock Osweiler	281	75	3.75	-1.98	-148	21	527	527	76.1	-119
John Hadl	230	87	2.64	-1.71	-149	117	5241	23957	85.2	-86
Phil Simms	1339	333	4.02	-0.49	-164	359	48508	51742	94.3	-127
Kirk Cousins	595	135	4.41	-1.38	-187	46	1177	1177	83.9	-145
Steve Grogan	280	113	2.48	-1.67	-189	69	2373	3543	82.1	-135
Todd Collins	133	65	2.05	-2.94	-191	0	0	0	69.5	-132
Jim Everett	725	195	3.72	-0.98	-192	86	3730	3979	90.1	-129
Jake Plummer	923	232	3.98	-0.85	-197	73	1910	1910	91.3	-135
Sean Salisbury	31	50	0.62	-3.99	-199	16	387	405	61.5	-128
Mike Tomczak	519	153	3.39	-1.34	-205	44	1069	1117	86.2	-141
Fran Tarkenton	1018	337	3.02	-0.65	-220	158	5935	9097	94.8	-117
Jim Harbaugh	748	206	3.63	-1.10	-227	110	9698	9931	88.9	-152
Gus Frerotte	178	87	2.05	-2.71	-236	0	0	0	71.3	-167
Jon Kitna	168	85	1.98	-2.87	-244	0	0	0	71.0	-164
Brad Johnson	922	245	3.76	-1.00	-245	123	16470	16480	89.6	-170
Scott Mitchell	37	60	0.62	-4.13	-248	0	0	0	55.0	-180
Jay Fiedler	363	130	2.79	-1.95	-253	114	5789	5860	77.6	-194
Mike Phipps	24	72	0.33	-3.60	-259	0	0	0	67.6	-156
Tommy Kramer	455	158	2.88	-1.64	-260	71	1739	2423	83.0	-180
Pat Haden	268	150	1.79	-1.85	-277	78	3761	4012	85.0	-150
Jack Kemp	605	191	3.17	-1.45	-277	90	3347	18358	88.5	-147
Bill Nelsen	329	148	2.22	-1.88	-279	121	3931	6176	83.7	-160
Mark Brunell	1453	365	3.98	-0.78	-286	251	12611	12834	92.0	-194
Kordell Stewart	645	198	3.26	-1.48	-294	41	1019	1043	83.9	-212
Carson Palmer	418	128	3.27	-2.33	-298	80	2550	2550	73.1	-229
Tuffy Leemans	-109	65	-1.68	-4.72	-307	0	0	0	67.9	-139
Elvis Grbac	434	156	2.78	-1.97	-307	75	2679	2731	78.5	-224
Dieter Brock	-49	58	-0.84	-5.29	-307	0	0	0	44.5	-214
Shaun King	215	110	1.95	-2.80	-308	0	0	0	71.0	-213
Pete Beathard	68	102	0.67	-3.20	-326	0	0	0	78.3	-148
Danny White	1442	400	3.61	-0.82	-326	190	10933	13188	91.6	-223
Richard Todd	418	167	2.50	-2.00	-334	107	1974	2750	80.1	-221
Lamar Jackson	884	209	4.23	-1.60	-334	12	299	299	82.0	-250
Frank Filchock	-136	78	-1.74	-4.53	-354	50	1573	10310	68.4	-164
Jay Schroeder	434	176	2.47	-2.10	-370	67	3273	3420	79.0	-247
George Blanda	479	199	2.41	-1.88	-374	218	8157	44746	86.5	-179
Bobby Layne	91	134	0.68	-2.83	-379	63	3018	12878	79.7	-181
Stan Humphries	800	253	3.16	-1.56	-395	22	2198	2296	83.9	-271
Andy Dalton	554	186	2.98	-2.55	-474	0	0	0	71.5	-353
Craig Morton	523	267	1.96	-1.93	-514	286	14627	21928	82.8	-306
Drew Bledsoe	691	282	2.45	-2.29	-645	0	0	0	75.7	-456
Y.A. Tittle	126	170	0.74	-3.91	-665	0	0	0	69.0	-352

Pretty much any way you cut it, Joe Cool produced the most value over average of any quarterback in postseason history. Tom Brady, Kurt Warner, Terry Bradshaw, and John Elway are obvious high rankers, but some may be surprised to see Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning also fare well.

When we remove bad games, Brady takes the crown from Montana, by a considerable margin, and Manning comes close.

After accounting for leverage, Montana moves back to the top, given that he had two of the top Super Bowl performances in history, in addition to many other fine games. Troy Aikman also takes a big leap. Harnessed in the regular season, the Cowboys let him run wild in the postseason, and he rewarded them handsomely.

With 361 postseason plays, Patrick Mahomes already ranks 31st in postseason usage among all quarterbacks. Keep an eye on that guy.