Tony Romo Has Borderline HOF Stats (Era-Adjusted)

by Chase Stuart on April 5, 2017

This photo probably has one HOF QB

Yesterday, Tony Romo announced that he was retiring from football after an excellent career with the Cowboys. Now here are two interesting questions: will he be a Hall of Famer? And should he be a Hall of Famer?

Regular readers will recall that in 2014, I looked at how Eli Manning’s stats compared to other Hall of Fame passers. I used a quick-and-dirty method to measure quarterback dominance, reprinted below.

Step 1) Calculate each quarterback’s Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (ANY/A) for each season of his career where he had enough pass attempts to qualify for the passing title (14 attempts per team game). ANY/A, of course, is calculated as follows: (Passing Yards + PassTDs * 20 – INTs * 45 – Sack Yards Lost) / (Pass Attempts + Sacks).

Step 2) For each quarterback, award him 10 points if he led the league ^[1]For purposes of this post, I have combined all AFL, NFL, and AAFC Stats. in ANY/A, 9 points if he finished 2nd, 8 points if he finished 3rd, … and 1 point if he finished 10th. A quarterback receives 0 points if he does not finish in the top 10 in ANY/A or does not have enough pass attempts to qualify. This is biased in favor of older quarterbacks to the extent he is playing in a smaller league. For example, Charlie Conerly

Step 3) For each quarterback, add his “points” from each season to produce a career grade.

Romo ranked in the top 10 in ANY/A in all but one season from 2006 to 2014. He finished 2nd in ANY/A in 2014 (9 points), 4th in ANY/A in 2009 (7 points), 5th in both 2006 and 2007 (6 points), 6th in 2011 (5), 7th in 2008 (4), and 9th in 2013 (2). That gives him a total of 39 points. How does that rank historically? Take a look: in the table below, I’ve included the number of “points” for each quarterback with at least 8 points, the last year they played (to help sort by era), and whether or not they are not yet eligible for the HOF, in the HOF, or have not been inducted.

Rk	Last Yr	Player	Points	HOFer
1	2015	Peyton Manning	109	elig
2	1999	Dan Marino	96	HOF
3	1970	Johnny Unitas	87	HOF
3	1964	Y.A. Tittle	87	HOF
3	1949	Sammy Baugh	87	HOF
6	1994	Joe Montana	83	HOF
6	1978	Fran Tarkenton	83	HOF
8	1960	Norm Van Brocklin	81	HOF
9	1955	Otto Graham	78	HOF
10	2016	Tom Brady	71	elig
11	2010	Brett Favre	68	HOF
11	1987	Dan Fouts	68	HOF
13	2016	Drew Brees	67	elig
14	1998	Steve Young	64	HOF
15	1962	Bobby Layne	61	HOF
16	1959	Charlie Conerly	57	no
16	1970	Bart Starr	57	HOF
18	1979	Roger Staubach	55	HOF
19	2016	Aaron Rodgers	53	elig
20	1984	Ken Anderson	46	no
20	1950	Tommy Thompson	46	no
20	1974	Len Dawson	46	HOF
23	2016	Ben Roethlisberger	43	elig
23	1970	Sonny Jurgensen	43	HOF
23	1947	Sid Luckman	43	HOF
26	1982	Terry Bradshaw	42	HOF
27	2016	Philip Rivers	40	elig
28	2014	Tony Romo	39	elig
28	1996	Boomer Esiason	39	no
28	2009	Kurt Warner	39	HOF
28	2000	Troy Aikman	39	HOF
32	2005	Trent Green	37	no
33	1965	Milt Plum	36	no
33	1951	Bob Waterfield	36	HOF
35	1972	Daryle Lamonica	34	no
36	1977	Billy Kilmer	33	no
37	1964	Billy Wade	32	no
37	1998	John Elway	32	HOF
39	1950	Frankie Albert	31	no
39	1998	Warren Moon	31	HOF
41	1981	Jim Hart	30	no
41	1975	Roman Gabriel	30	no
41	1975	John Hadl	30	no
41	1971	John Brodie	30	no
45	1979	Bob Griese	29	HOF
46	2016	Carson Palmer	27	elig
46	1983	Ken Stabler	27	HOF
48	1981	Craig Morton	26	no
48	1968	Earl Morrall	26	no
48	1963	Tobin Rote	26	no
48	1941	Parker Hall	26	no
48	1996	Jim Kelly	26	HOF
53	2016	Matt Ryan	25	elig
54	2004	Vinny Testaverde	24	no
54	1981	Bert Jones	24	no
54	1968	Don Meredith	24	no
54	1955	Bobby Thomason	24	no
58	1996	Dave Krieg	23	no
59	2008	Jeff Garcia	22	no
59	2004	Daunte Culpepper	22	no
59	2003	Rich Gannon	22	no
59	1950	George Ratterman	22	no
59	1976	Joe Namath	22	HOF
64	1996	Jim Everett	21	no
64	1993	Mark Rypien	21	no
64	1964	Ed Brown	21	no
67	2006	Brad Johnson	20	no
67	2006	Mark Brunell	20	no
67	1942	Cecil Isbell	20	no
70	1991	Bernie Kosar	19	no
70	1983	Brian Sipe	19	no
70	1973	Norm Snead	19	no
70	1966	Tom Flores	19	no
74	2015	Matt Hasselbeck	18	elig
74	2013	Matt Schaub	18	elig
74	2008	Chad Pennington	18	no
74	2006	Steve McNair	18	no
74	1985	Joe Theismann	18	no
74	1984	Joe Ferguson	18	no
80	2016	Russell Wilson	17	elig
80	2010	Donovan McNabb	17	no
80	2001	Chris Chandler	17	no
80	1987	Bill Kenney	17	no
80	1971	Bill Nelsen	17	no
80	1951	Johnny Lujack	17	no
80	1940	Davey O'Brien	17	no
80	1966	George Blanda	17	HOF
88	1993	Phil Simms	16	no
88	1967	Frank Ryan	16	no
90	1947	Paul Christman	15	no
90	2006	Jake Plummer	15	no
90	1999	Jeff George	15	no
90	1996	Bobby Hebert	15	no
90	1988	Neil Lomax	15	no
95	1974	Charley Johnson	14	no
95	1997	Scott Mitchell	14	no
95	1985	Vince Ferragamo	14	no
95	1979	Greg Landry	14	no
95	1967	Babe Parilli	14	no
100	1989	Steve Grogan	13	no
100	1987	Danny White	13	no
100	1985	Lynn Dickey	13	no
100	1946	Frank Filchock	13	no
100	1944	Frankie Sinkwich	13	no
100	1955	Jim Finks	13	HOF
106	1986	Ron Jaworski	12	no
106	1981	Archie Manning	12	no
106	1961	Eddie LeBaron	12	no
109	1998	Randall Cunningham	11	no
109	1995	Chris Miller	11	no
109	1991	Steve DeBerg	11	no
109	1986	Tony Eason	11	no
109	1984	Steve Bartkowski	11	no
109	1977	James Harris	11	no
115	2016	Kirk Cousins	10	elig
115	2015	Nick Foles	10	elig
115	1998	Erik Kramer	10	no
115	1986	Tommy Kramer	10	no
115	1988	Doug Williams	10	no
115	1982	Jim Zorn	10	no
115	1969	Greg Cook	10	no
115	1948	Glenn Dobbs	10	no
115	1936	Arnie Herber	10	HOF
124	2016	Andy Dalton	9	elig
124	2016	Eli Manning	9	elig
124	2012	Michael Vick	9	elig
124	2010	David Garrard	9	no
124	2007	Brian Griese	9	no
124	1994	Jay Schroeder	9	no
124	1981	Pat Haden	9	no
124	1966	Rudy Bukich	9	no
124	1947	Bud Schwenk	9	no
124	1947	Paul Governali	9	no
134	2016	Dak Prescott	8	elig
134	2015	Josh McCown	8	elig
134	2013	Robert Griffin	8	elig
134	2010	Kerry Collins	8	no
134	2001	Doug Flutie	8	no
134	1998	Neil O'Donnell	8	no
134	1994	Craig Erickson	8	no
134	1991	Ken O'Brien	8	no
134	1961	Butch Songin	8	no
134	1950	Jim Hardy	8	no
134	1943	Tony Canadeo	8	HOF
134	1939	Ace Parker	8	HOF

Romo is tied for 28th with three other quarterbacks with borderline Hall of Fame stats: Boomer Esiason, who is arguably a top three non-HOF quarterback, Kurt Warner, who just was inducted, and Troy Aikman, who perhaps would not be in the Hall of Fame if not for his outstanding postseason play.

Of the 27 passers with at least 40 points, 6 are not eligible for the Hall of Fame, though at least 4 are HOF locks (Manning, Brady, Brees, Rodgers), a fifth is a likely HOFer (Roethlisberger), and the sixth (Rivers) is another borderline case.

Of the other 21 quarterbacks? 18 are in the Hall of Fame. The other three? One is Ken Anderson, widely recognized as the best quarterback to be passed over by the HOF. The other two retired before 1960 — Charlie Conerly and Tommy Thompson — so their rankings are inflated by playing in smaller leagues.

In addition to Warner and Aikman, a number of other quarterbacks are in the HOF with rankings lower than Romo, including three players that retired in the ’90s: John Elway, Warren Moon, and Jim Kelly. And for the Eli Manning fans, he has just 9 points.

From an efficiency standpoint, Romo is a Hall of Famer. Whether or not his efficiency truly reflects his ability, his less-than-stellar postseason reputation, and his relatively short career are key questions that the Hall of Fame voters will have to answer. But his statistical case after adjusting for era is probably stronger than most people think. That’s because while Romo only had four seasons with 4,000+ yards, he was extremely efficient for much of his career. From ’06 to ’14, Romo joined Rodgers, Manning, Brady, and Brees as the top 5 passers from that era.

References[+]

References
↑1	For purposes of this post, I have combined all AFL, NFL, and AAFC Stats.

Tagged as: Tony Romo

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