It is hard to beat a good team three times in a season, they say. Since the 1970 NFL Merger, there have been 21 instances where a team swept a team in the regular season and then had a third battle in the playoffs. The sweeping team has gone 14-7 in those games, which means it must not be *that* hard to beat a playoff team three times in a season. [1]For the historians out there, in the ’60s, the sweeping team went 3-1: the ’63 Chargers swept the Patriots and then beat them in the AFL Title game, the ’64 Bills pulled off that … Continue reading
It is worth noting that in 4 of these 21 trio of games, the sweeping team was on the road in the postseason. [2]The ’84 Seahawks swept the Raiders but finished three games behind them in the standings and lost in the playoff game, the ’92 Chiefs went 10-6 and swept the 11-5 Chargers and lost in San … Continue reading In the 17 instances where the postseason home team swept their playoff opponent during the regular season, the home teams went an impressive 12-5 in those games. The home team was, as you would expected, favored in all 17 games, with an average points spread of 5.8 points.
In the season opener, the Saints beat the Bucs by 11 points, and then the Saints shocked Tampa Bay on the road in the rematch, 38-3. Drew Brees threw 6 touchdowns and had no interceptions in the two games, while Tom Brady threw just 2 touchdowns and 5 interceptions while averaging just 5.13 net yards per attempt in those games. New Orleans won the two games by an average of 23 points a remarkable amount even for a two-game sweep. But it probably doesn’t mean much: there were three teams in our 17-paired sample where the sweeping team averaged a 17-point win or better during the regular season; shockingly, those teams went 0-3 in the playoff rematch.
The graph below shows the average margin of victory (on the X-Axis) for the sweeping team in the regular season, along with the results in the playoff game on the Y-Axis. Obviously if the dot is below the 0 line on the Y-Axis, that means the sweeping team lost in the postseason.
So yes, the Saints sure seem well equipped to handle Tampa Bay based on their dominant performance in the regular season. But I think it is probably best just to ignore that; for the most part, the sweeping teams usually win because they were the better team in the regular season and were at home in the playoffs. In this case, New Orleans is a 3-point favorite in the rematch, a pretty low number due to the low homefield advantage in this COVID-19 world and the extremely similar points differential the two teams had during the regular season. I agree with Vegas: I’d make New Orleans the favorite, but this game feels close to a toss up. And while I wouldn’t put much stock in the Saints regular season sweeps, I certainly would ignore any analysis that says it’s hard to go 3-0 against a good team. Once you go 2-0, it’s actually not that hard!
The table below shows the 17 trio of games discussed above. Again, the home playoff team after sweeping their postseason opponent has gone 12-7 since the merger. The table below also includes links to all three games.
| Year | Home Team | Road Team | Game 1 | Game 2 | Playoff Game | Playoff Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1982 | Dolphins | Jets | W 45-28 | W 20-19 | W 14-0 | -1 |
| 1986 | Giants | Redskins | W 27-20 | W 24-14 | W 17-0 | -7 |
| 1989 | Oilers | Steelers | W 27-0 | W 23-16 | L 26-23 | -7 |
| 1991 | Chiefs | Raiders | W 24-21 | W 27-21 | W 10-6 | -5 |
| 1993 | Raiders | Broncos | W 23-20 | W 33-30 | W 42-24 | -2 |
| 1994 | Vikings | Bears | W 42-14 | W 33-27 | L 35-18 | -6 |
| 1994 | Steelers | Browns | W 17-10 | W 17-7 | W 29-9 | -3.5 |
| 1997 | Packers | Buccaneers | W 21-16 | W 17-6 | W 21-7 | -13 |
| 1997 | Patriots | Dolphins | W 27-24 | W 14-12 | W 17-3 | -5 |
| 1998 | Cowboys | Cardinals | W 38-10 | W 35-28 | L 20-7 | -7 |
| 2000 | Giants | Eagles | W 33-18 | W 24-7 | W 20-10 | -4.5 |
| 2002 | Steelers | Browns | W 16-13 | W 23-20 | W 36-33 | -8 |
| 2004 | Packers | Vikings | W 34-31 | W 34-31 | L 31-17 | -6 |
| 2007 | Cowboys | Giants | W 45-35 | W 31-20 | L 21-17 | -7 |
| 2008 | Steelers | Ravens | W 23-20 | W 13-9 | W 23-14 | -6 |
| 2009 | Cowboys | Eagles | W 20-16 | W 24-0 | W 34-14 | -3.5 |
| 2017 | Saints | Panthers | W 34-13 | W 31-21 | W 31-26 | -6.5 |
| 2020 | Saints | Buccaneers | W 34-23 | W 38-3 | Sunday Night | -3 |
As always, please leave your thoughts in the comments.
References
| ↑1 | For the historians out there, in the ’60s, the sweeping team went 3-1: the ’63 Chargers swept the Patriots and then beat them in the AFL Title game, the ’64 Bills pulled off that same trick against the defending champion Chargers, and in the NFL, the Packers swept the Colts, although the last game came without either Hall of Fame quarterback. The one that went the other way was in 1969, when the AFL’s Chiefs lost to the Raiders in two tight regular season games, and then beat Oakland in the AFL Championship Game.
In the post World War II period (1945 to 1959), the sweeping team went 4-2 in these games: Cleveland pulled off this trick twice in the AAFC, and the ’52 Lions and ’58 Giants did it against the Rams and Browns, respectively. On the other hand, in 1950 (i) the Rams were swept by the Bears in a pair of close games, and then beat Chicago at home in the tiebreaker game, and (ii) the Browns lose two tight games to the Giants and then beat New York in the tiebreaker game. |
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| ↑2 | The ’84 Seahawks swept the Raiders but finished three games behind them in the standings and lost in the playoff game, the ’92 Chiefs went 10-6 and swept the 11-5 Chargers and lost in San Diego in the postseason. On the other side, the ’99 Jaguars went 14-2, but lost all three games to the 13-3 Titans, the ’04 Seahawks went 9-7 but were swept by the 8-8 Rams in the regular season before beating them at home in the playoffs. |