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Top Receivers in 2020 Per Team Pass Attempt

Nobody could stop Adams in 2020.

Davante Adams was the best wide receiver in the NFL in 2020, and by a very large margin. Unless you want to assign a heavy penalty on him for playing with the MVP quarterback, Adams had otherworldly numbers. He played in just 14 games, but still gained 1,374 yards, 73 first downs, and caught 18 touchdowns. This came in just 461 pass attempts during those 14 games, making that even more impressive.

When measuring receiver performance, it’s important to recognize that some wide receivers play on pass-heavy teams while some play on run-heavy teams. Targets are often mistakenly viewed as a measure of opportunity, when really targets are a form of production; a player who gets a target on a play is doing something positive. The best measure of opportunity is routes run, and team pass attempts serves as a good proxy for that.

Let’s skip Adams, who again blows away the field. Let’s instead look at Titans wide receiver A.J. Brown, who is often the lead horse for the great efficiency numbers that Ryan Tannehill has produced since joining the Titans. Brown missed two games this year, but in those 14 games, he gained 1,075 receiving yards, 55 first downs and 11 touchdowns. Most impressively, this came with only 424 pass attempts (excluding sacks) in those games. Brown picked up a first down on 13% of all Titans pass attempts in the games he played, the fourth-best mark in the NFL; he caught a touchdown on 2.6% of all Tennessee pass plays during those 14 games, the third-highest mark in the league. A receiver can only produce on passing plays, and Brown was a huge reason for the Titans success last year.

For each receiver last year, I calculated how many Adjusted Catch Yards they gained, which is simply receiving yards with a 9-yard bonus for each first down and a 20-yard bonus for each touchdown. [1]Without duplication, so a touchdown only gets 11 additional yards, since each touchdown is always a first down. For Brown, that means he gained 1691 adjusted catch yards; in the 14 games he played, he averaged 3.99 ACY per team pass attempt, the second-best rate in the NFL. Here are the top 100 receivers by this metric:

RkPlayerTeamPosYards1DTDGTm Pass AttACY/TPARec Yd/TPA
1Davante AdamsGNBWR13747318144614.842.98
2A.J. BrownTENWR10755511144243.992.54
3Justin Jefferson MINWR1400587165163.872.71
4Stefon DiggsBUFWR1535738165963.832.58
5Travis KelceKANTE14167911155983.762.37
6DeAndre HopkinsARIWR1407756165753.742.45
7Will FullerHOUWR879388113643.602.41
8Corey Davis TENWR984495144163.562.37
9DK MetcalfSEAWR13036310165633.522.31
10George KittleSFOTE63432282713.482.34
11Darren WallerLVRTE1196699165513.482.17
12Calvin RidleyATLWR1374659155933.472.32
13D.J. MooreCARWR1193534155103.362.34
14Adam ThielenMINWR9255214154713.281.96
15Tyreek HillKANWR12765715155983.272.13
16Michael ThomasNORWR43825072033.272.16
17Brandin CooksHOUWR1150516155163.252.23
18Julio Jones ATLWR77136393533.202.18
19Allen RobinsonCHIWR1250686166143.142.04
20Mark AndrewsBALTE701377143712.991.89
21Tyler LockettSEAWR10545710165632.981.87
22Kenny GolladayDETWR33816251712.951.98
23Terry McLaurin WASWR1118514155542.932.02
24Keenan Allen LACWR992618145632.891.76
25Marquise Brown BALWR769358164062.891.89
26Jarvis Landry CLEWR840463154482.871.88
27Robby AndersonCARWR1096493165502.851.99
28Jakobi MeyersNWEWR729370143762.821.94
29Chris GodwinTAMWR840437124642.811.81
30Brandon Aiyuk SFOWR748425124302.751.74
31Jamison CrowderNYJWR699326123852.741.82
32Cole BeasleyBUFWR967534155582.671.73
33Marvin Jones DETWR978529165822.651.68
34Julian EdelmanNWEWR31518061802.651.75
35Mike EvansTAMWR10065513166262.631.61
36Amari CooperDALWR1114545166392.591.74
37Sterling ShepardNYGWR656373123972.571.65
38Cooper KuppLARWR974443155522.541.76
39DeVante ParkerMIAWR793454144982.491.59
40Tee Higgins CINWR908526165812.481.56
41Antonio Brown TAMWR48327483172.431.52
42Emmanuel Sanders NORWR726335144442.431.64
43Odell Beckham Jr.CLEWR31917372112.391.51
44Nelson AgholorLVRWR896378165512.391.63
45Curtis Samuel CARWR851393155212.371.63
46Robert WoodsLARWR936446165902.371.59
47T.Y. HiltonINDWR762425155082.351.50
48Tyler BoydCINWR841434155432.341.55
49Alvin Kamara NORRB756355154902.301.54
50Jerry Jeudy DENWR856393165562.231.54
51Deebo SamuelSFOWR39119172572.231.52
52Rashard HigginsCLEWR599264133942.231.52
53Diontae Johnson PITWR923457156332.221.46
54DJ CharkJAXWR706375134972.201.42
55CeeDee Lamb DALWR935465166392.201.46
56Darius SlaytonNYGWR751383165172.181.45
57Allen LazardGNBWR451233103182.171.42
58John BrownBUFWR45822393192.161.44
59Keke CouteeHOUWR40019382802.161.43
60Tim PatrickDENWR742336155152.151.44
61JuJu Smith-SchusterPITWR831489166562.081.27
62Mike GesickiMIATE703366155332.051.32
63Chase Claypool PITWR873419166562.041.33
64Russell GageATLWR786504166282.041.25
65Michael GallupDALWR843445166392.031.32
66Damiere Byrd NWEWR604291164401.991.37
67Breshad PerrimanNYJWR505203123631.981.39
68T.J. Hockenson DETTE723406165821.971.24
69Dallas GoedertPHITE524283114181.941.25
70Randall CobbHOUWR441203103391.931.30
71Denzel Mims NYJWR35715092561.921.39
72Willie Snead BALWR432233133521.911.23
73Robert Tonyan GNBTE5863311165261.911.11
74Noah FantDENTE673343155321.901.27
75Chad HansenHOUWR23611151821.901.30
76Marquez Valdes-Scantling GNBWR690276165261.901.31
77Kendrick BourneSFOWR667352155351.881.25
78Mike Williams LACWR756355156021.871.26
79Christian KirkARIWR621306145131.871.21
80Preston WilliamsMIAWR28814482491.841.16
81Austin HooperCLETE435274133991.811.09
82Evan Engram NYGTE654291165171.791.26
83Logan ThomasWASTE670366166011.761.11
84Travis FulghamPHIWR539264134661.751.16
85Hunter RenfrowLVRWR656322165511.751.19
86Laviska Shenault Jr.JAXWR600335145441.751.10
87Jonnu SmithTENTE448258154401.731.02
88Hunter Henry LACTE613354145631.731.09
89Danny AmendolaDETWR602300145061.721.19
90Zach PascalINDWR629295165521.711.14
91Sammy WatkinsKANWR421272104091.681.03
92Jared CookNORTE504277154971.661.01
93Keelan ColeJAXWR642345166161.631.04
94Michael Pittman Jr.INDWR503221134461.601.13
95Austin EkelerLACRB403202103821.581.05
96Darnell MooneyCHIWR631334166141.581.03
97Irv Smith Jr.MINTE365225133921.580.93
98DeSean JacksonPHIWR23610152141.571.10
99Gabriel DavisBUFWR599277165961.541.01
100James White NWERB375201143681.541.02

Some notes.

  • Adams, of course, laps the field. His performance was nothing short of remarkable, and it *should* be remembered as one of the greatest seasons in NFL history. To the extent it won’t be, it will be for two reasons: he missed 2 games and half of a third (against the Lions poor defense, no less), deflating his totals. And because he played on a relatively run-heavy team: Green Bay finished with “only” 526 pass attempts, 24th-most in the 2020 NFL.
  • Rookie Justin Jefferson was a revelation in Minnesota, and had one of the great rookie seasons in wide receiver history. He ranks third by this metric and he also played on a somewhat run-heavy team. Jefferson actually ranked 2nd in pure receiving yards per team pass attempt, but Brown’s big advantages in first downs and touchdowns (per attempt) gave him the edge. If we must compare him to Randy Moss, his rookie year produced a stat line of 1,313 yards, 17 touchdowns and 51 first downs on a team that had 533 passes, compared to Jefferson’s 1,400, 7, 58, and 516. Obviously the touchdown edge was significant, but Jefferson’s season was truly legendary.
  • Travis Kelce had an incredible year, of course, but lost in all the praise was that he played for one of the most pass-happy teams in football. Kelce ranked 2nd in receiving yards but only 7th in receiving yards per team pass attempt; his strong touchdown and first down numbers bring him up to 5th in ACY/TPA. His top competitor for the All-Pro awards at tight end is George Kittle, who missed much of the season with a broken foot. He was on the field for over 90% of San Francisco’s snaps in the team’s first five games, but fell between 50% and 67% in the final three games he played. Still, Kittle was remarkably efficient in 2020 as usual: he averaged 3.48 ACY/TPA for the season, not too far behind Kelce. For what it’s worth, through five games (i.e., before the partial games brought his average down), Kittle was averaging an incredible 4.36 ACY/TPA and 2.54 receiving yards per team pass attempt. When healthy, Kittle is still in the discussion for the game’s top tight end.
  • If you’re looking for a player who is maybe underrated by this metric, then Tyreek Hill might be your guy. It’s hard to call him overrated — he looks outstanding and is competing of course with Kelce for targets — and Hill was a first-team All-Pro in 2020. But he only ranks 15th in this metric, and that’s without any Mahomes penalty! [2]Or, I suppose, without any bonus for having to share targets with Kelce. The closest thing to a knock on Hill is that he only had 57 first downs, which hurts him here. Hill is more used as the big play threat while Kelce gobbles up the first downs, hurting him in this formula. Of course, this also ignores the valuable contributions Hill makes as a rusher.
  • I thought Terry McLaurin might fare better here, but he only ranks 21st overall. It’s a good reminder that this formula doesn’t have any modifications for the quality of your passer, only the quantity.

What stands out to you?

References

References
1 Without duplication, so a touchdown only gets 11 additional yards, since each touchdown is always a first down.
2 Or, I suppose, without any bonus for having to share targets with Kelce.
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