The 2013 Cleveland Browns Had the Strangest Season

March 30, 2014 SRS

Okay, that title could be the opener to any number of jokes. But I mean “strange season” in the way Football Perspective has used the phrase before. Take a look at Cleveland’s schedule and results from 2013: Score Week Day Date Rec Opp Tm Opp 1 Sun September 8 boxscore L 0-1 Miami Dolphins 10 […]

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Rams/Colts Was the Least-Conforming Game of 2013

March 7, 2014 SRS

In week 10 of the 2013 season, the Rams traveled to Indianapolis. By the end of the season, St. Louis had an SRS grade of +2.2, meaning they were 2.2 points better than average. The Colts finished 2013 with an SRS grade of +4.1; if you award three points for home field, we would expect […]

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The Best Scoring Offenses Since 1932

February 6, 2014 History

On Monday, I looked at the greatest defenses — measured simply by points allowed and adjusted for strength of schedule — in NFL history. Today, I want to look at which offenses were the greatest in regular season history, and see where the 2013 Broncos stack up. As noted in the post on defenses, during […]

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The Best Scoring Defenses In NFL History

February 3, 2014 Defense

Congratulations to the Seattle Seahawks and their fans on winning Super Bowl XLVIII. With the win, Seattle has confirmed its status as one of the greatest defenses in NFL history. The Seahawks defense produced a game for the ages on Sunday: facing Peyton Manning, Demaryius Thomas, and one of the greatest offenses ever, Seattle’s defense […]

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A Monte Carlo-Based Comparison of College Football Playoff Systems

January 6, 2014 College

Love the Bowl Championship Series or (more likely) hate it, tonight marks the end of college football’s 16-year BCS experiment. Designed to bring some measure of order to the chaotic state college football had been in under the Bowl Alliance/Coalition, the BCS did streamline the process of determining a national champion — though it was […]

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What’s the Correct Margin-of-Victory Cap For the NFL?

December 24, 2013 SRS

The Simple Rating System is a many-splendored thing, but a known bug of the process is that huge outlier scoring margins can have undue influence on the rankings. Take the 2009 NFL season, for instance, during which the Patriots led the NFL in SRS in no small part because they annihilated the Titans 59-0 in […]

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Is Ohio State Going 13-0 More Impressive than Auburn going 12-1?

December 7, 2013 College

Let’s just assume that Auburn defeats Missouri this afternoon and Ohio State defeats Michigan State tonight. Which team would have pulled off the more impressive feat: Ohio State, going undefeated against a relatively easy schedule, or Auburn going 12-1 against a harder schedule? That’s a tricky question to answer, but here is one way to […]

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Week 14 College Football SRS Ratings & The Iron Bowl

December 2, 2013 College

We are out of words. You should be dead, Auburn, because we saw you die. And here you are, breathing in the flesh, able to say this: you made the Alabama Crimson Tide kick the winning touchdown for you. It’s hard to top that recap from EDSBS of one of the greatest games in college […]

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Week 13 College Football SRS Ratings: November Strikes Again

November 25, 2013 College

Every year, a few mind-blowing upsets occur this time of year, and every year, we are shocked when it happens. Three of the top five single game performances of the season occurred on Saturday, including the best individual game rating of the year. Oklahoma State’s blowout win against Baylor produced an SRS score of 88.5, […]

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Non-FBS College Football Ratings Through 13 Weeks

November 25, 2013 SRS

Every week, I publish my college football ratings for FBS teams. To generate those ratings – using this methodology — my program also generates ratings for teams at all other levels.  This week, I will separate out the non-FBS teams based on their levels of play (instead of just lumping all non-FBS teams together). As […]

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Week 12 College Football SRS Ratings: Auburn Stays Alive

November 18, 2013 College

Entering week 12, there were 7 teams with legitimate paths to the national championship. The four undefeated teams came in with cupcake games, while two of the three one-loss teams had tough challenges. So what happened? Alabama was a 23-point favorite at Mississippi State (53rd in the week 11 SRS ratings). It wasn’t pretty, but […]

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Non-FBS College Football Ratings Through 12 Weeks

November 18, 2013 SRS

Every week, I publish my college football ratings for FBS teams. To generate those ratings – using this methodology — my program also generates ratings for non-FBS team.  So let’s take a look at the ratings through twelve weeks for all non-FBS teams. After posting the ratings, I’m going to dip my toe into the […]

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Week 11 College Football SRS Ratings: FSU, Baylor stay on top

November 11, 2013 College

Last week, the top five was Florida State, Baylor, Oregon, Alabama, and Arizona State. Florida State won big (by 56), while Baylor and Alabama won big games (against Oklahoma and LSU) by comfortable margins. Arizona State won by a point at Utah, an underrated team (despite the record, Utah ranks 24th in the SRS). Of […]

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Non-FBS College Football Ratings Through 11 Weeks

November 11, 2013 SRS

Every week, I publish my college football ratings for FBS teams. To generate those ratings – using this methodology — my program also generates ratings for non-FBS team.  So let’s take a look at the ratings through eleven weeks for all non-FBS teams. As always, thanks to Dr. Peter Wolfe for providing the final scores […]

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Using the SRS to Analyze NFL Games Through Nine Weeks

November 5, 2013 Current Events

Let’s start with the SRS ratings through nine weeks, excluding the Green Bay/Chicago Monday Night Football game: Tweet

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Week 9 College Football SRS Ratings: FSU, Oregon, Bama, and Baylor stand alone

October 27, 2013 College

Last week, five teams emerged as the upper crust of college football. That number has dropped to four, after Missouri lost to South Carolina in typical heartbreaking style. The Tigers led 17-0 entering the fourth quarter, but that was before USC starting quarterback Connor Shaw — who had been held out due to injury — […]

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FSU, Oregon, Baylor, Alabama, and Mizzou Top the Week 8 SRS Ratings

October 21, 2013 College

Last week, Florida State topped the SRS ratings. And that was before the Seminoles posted the single best performance of the season, winning at Clemson 51-14 on Saturday Night. They scored an 85.5 in the SRS against the Tigers, so FSU now has the top two games of the season (the team’s 63-0 shutout against […]

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Florida State Tops the Simple Rating System Ratings Through Seven Weeks

October 14, 2013 College

After seven weeks, the idle Seminoles remain atop the SRS Ratings. New readers can read the background about the Simple Rating System here, but the SRS simply takes margin of victory for each team (with some minor tweaks to minimize running up the score and to give credit for close wins) and adjusts that differential […]

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Jacksonville at Denver: A “Preview”

October 8, 2013 History

Through five weeks, the Jaguars have been the worst team in the league and the Broncos have been the best. One could also argue that these two teams are even more extreme than the typical worst/best teams in the league, and that Denver has a larger home field advantage than your typical team. In other […]

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After Six Weeks, Baylor looks legit, but falls in the SRS Ratings

October 7, 2013 College

Last week, the Baylor Bears came in at number one in the first edition of the 2013 SRS Ratings. But the Bears ranked #1 on the strength of blowouts against bad teams; how would Baylor fare against West Virginia, who upset Oklahoma State just one week ago? Art Briles’ squad raced out to a 56-14 […]

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Five weeks in, the first edition of NCAA SRS ratings

September 30, 2013 College

It’s still too early to put much faith in any computer ratings, but we can at least begin framing the discussion of which are the most impressive teams in college football. As always, thanks to Dr. Peter Wolfe for providing the final scores for every college football game. As a reminder, here’s the system for […]

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Post-Week 3 College Football Ratings: Part I

September 15, 2013 College

With three weeks in the books, it’s time to unveil some college football ratings. This is part one — I plan to post Part II on Sunday afternoon. It’s still too early to create meaningful SRS ratings, but there’s a workaround solution. You may recall that back in the summer, I created implied college football […]

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The 2012 Chicago Bears had the Least Strange Season Ever

August 2, 2013 Random Perspective On

Here is a recap of the 2012 Chicago Bears season.  Notice anything strange? Trick question! Score Week Day Date OT Rec Opp Tm Opp 1 Sun September 9 boxscore W 1-0 Indianapolis Colts 41 21 2 Thu September 13 boxscore L 1-1 @ Green Bay Packers 10 23 3 Sun September 23 boxscore W 2-1 […]

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The Best Passing Games of 2012 (NFL)

July 30, 2013 Quarterbacks

Yesterday, I presented my Rearview ANY/A ratings for quarterbacks and defenses in 2012. Strength of schedule adjustments are important — without it, Peyton Manning‘s numbers were tops in the league, but after the adjustments, Tom Brady moved into the number one slot. To create the season rankings, I had to come up with rankings for […]

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2012 Rearview Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt

July 29, 2013 Quarterbacks

Every year at Footballguys.com, I publish an article called Rearview QB, which adjusts quarterback (and defense) fantasy numbers for strength of schedule. I’ve also done the same thing using ANY/A instead of fantasy points, and today I revive that concept for the 2012 season. Let’s start with the basics. Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt is […]

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Implied SRS Ratings of Most College Football Teams

June 10, 2013 College

The Simple Rating System is a set of computer rankings focused on only two variables: strength of schedule and margin of victory. I published weekly college football SRS ratings each week last season, and you can read more about the SRS there. Last month, Jason Lisk of the Big Lead took the Las Vegas point […]

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Implied SRS Ratings of each NFL Team

May 10, 2013 SRS

On Wednesday, Jason Lisk came up with a set of power rankings based on the point spread for nearly every game this season (spreads for the games in the final week of the season have not yet been released). We can use the SRS to come up with the implied ratings for each team (this […]

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Another Note on the Relative Impact of Offense vs. Defense on Scoring

May 8, 2013 History

Last week, Chase had a great post where he looked at what percentage of the points scored by a team in any given game is a function of the team, and what percentage is a function of the opponent. The answer, according to Chase’s method, was 58 percent for the offense and 42 percent for […]

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College Football: The Best Passing Quarterbacks since 2005

February 27, 2013 College

Yesterday, I ranked every quarterback in college football last season. Today, I’ll do the same for every quarterback since 2005. If you read yesterday’s article, you can skip the next three paragraphs, which explain the system I used. I start by calculating each quarterback’s Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt, done by starting with passing yards […]

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College Football: The Best Passing Quarterbacks from 2012

February 26, 2013 College

A few weeks ago, I discovered cfbstats.com, which has made available for download an incredible amount of college football statistics from the last eight seasons. Thanks to them, I plan to apply some of the same techniques I’ve used on NFL numbers over the years to college statistics. If you’re a fan of college football, […]

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