My preferred way to come up with NFL team ratings and NFL strength of schedule ratings is to trust the experts: in this case, the Vegas oddsmakers. Every year (or at least the years where I remember to do so), after Vegas releases the point spreads for every game, I take those weekly “ratings” to derive the Vegas ratings are for each team. Hence the title of today’s post: we can use the Vegas point spreads in each game to derive the implied ratings by the oddsmakers (in this case, Action Network) for each team.

The way to generate team ratings is to take the point spread in each game, adjust for home field (except for the two international games), and then determine by how many points Vegas thinks Team A is better than Team B. For example, when the Jets are 4.5-point underdogs to the Panthers in Carolina, we can imply that Carolina is viewed as 2 points better than the Jets (I am using 2.5 points for home field advantage). Using the iterative SRS process, and because the transitive property of point spreads applies, we can generate team ratings based on the 272 point spreads involved.

Here’s how to read the table below. After adjusting for home field advantage, the Chiefs are expected to beat their average opponent by 6.94 points. On average, Kansas City’s opponents (after adjusting for *their* strength of schedule) are almost exactly average (+0.02 points per game better than average), which means the Chiefs are expected to be 6.96 points better than average (difference due to rounding). That’s the best in the league; the worst team in the league is Houston. The Texans schedule is +0.17 points per game tougher than average, and Houston is expected to lose by an average of 8.21 points per game, implying that the Texans are 8.04 points per game worse than league average.

By this measure, the Steelers have the hardest schedule in the NFL at +0.76 points per game better than average. Meanwhile, the 49ers average opponent is 0.76 points per game worse than average, giving San Francisco the easiest schedule in the league.

Finally, here is the data for each game this season. You can read the chart as follows: Kansas City has an SRS rating of 6.96, and in week 1, the Chiefs are at home against the Browns. Cleveland has an SRS rating of 1.96. The spread for this game is Kansas City -7, which implies an in-game SRS rating for the Chiefs equal to +6.46 (start with 7, subtract 2.5 points for home field, and then add 1.96 points for a tough opponent implies that Kansas City is 6.46 points better than average in this game).

As always, please leave your thoughts in the comments.