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Strength of Schedule Data, Through Week 6 and Rest of Year

The Jets have had a brutal strength of schedule so far. Based on Pro-Football-Reference.com’s SRS ratings, and adjusted for home field, the Jets have had the toughest schedule this year, with home game against the Bengals, and Seahawks, and road games against the Bills, Chiefs, Steelers, and Cardinals.

The good news? For the rest of the season, the Jets have the 21st toughest schedule in the league, and no team has an easier dropoff in schedule than New York. This was predictable — in fact, I wrote just that for 538 in the offseason.

On the flip side, we have the Seahawks. Here’s how to read the table below, using Seattle. They are ranked 32nd, because no team’s schedule gets more difficult. Seattle’s through week 6 SOS — the TW6 SOS column — is -3.06, meaning its average opponent was about three points worse than average. That’s been the 31st toughest (or 2nd easiest) slate in the league. Meanwhile, Seattle’s rest of year SOS — marked as ROY SOS — is +2.13, the 3rd toughest left in football. That’s a difference of -5.19 (i.e., negative is bad, because the schedule is now harder).

RkTmTW6 SOSTW6 SOS RKROY SOSROY SOS RKDiff
1New York Jets4.731-0.45215.18
2San Francisco 49ers3.224-0.57233.79
3Tampa Bay Buccaneers2.665-0.98273.64
4Cincinnati Bengals3.6020.46113.14
5Cleveland Browns3.5730.9692.61
6Tennessee Titans-1.1022-3.17322.07
7Houston Texans-0.3518-2.13311.78
8Los Angeles Rams1.527-0.07181.59
9New York Giants2.2060.9871.22
10Kansas City Chiefs-0.5219-1.71301.19
11Buffalo Bills-0.2715-1.26280.99
12Oakland Raiders0.2213-0.45200.67
13Atlanta Falcons-0.3016-0.84240.54
14New Orleans Saints-0.1814-0.49220.31
15Pittsburgh Steelers0.32110.19170.13
16Green Bay Packers0.40100.34120.06
17Carolina Panthers0.27120.27140.00
18Miami Dolphins0.8591.186-0.33
19Chicago Bears-0.35170.2415-0.59
20San Diego Chargers-2.2027-1.5329-0.67
21Washington Redskins1.3782.162-0.79
22Denver Broncos-1.7025-0.8826-0.82
23New England Patriots-0.77200.1916-0.96
24Detroit Lions-1.12230.3313-1.45
25Minnesota Vikings-2.2028-0.3319-1.87
26Indianapolis Colts-3.2332-0.8825-2.35
27Baltimore Ravens-1.02211.665-2.68
28Arizona Cardinals-1.75260.978-2.72
29Jacksonville Jaguars-2.36290.5310-2.89
30Philadelphia Eagles-1.20242.191-3.39
31Dallas Cowboys-2.43301.994-4.42
32Seattle Seahawks-3.06312.133-5.19

As always, please leave your thoughts in the comments. Note that Philadelphia and Washington have the two toughest rest of year schedules, but it’s not much easier for the rest of the NFC East: the Cowboys have the 4th-toughest, and the Giants have the 7th-hardest.

  • Scott Peterson

    How much of facing a weak/strong schedule is the tail wagging the dog. Of course the Jets have faced an awesome schedule…those teams all got to play them!! And the flipside…of course the Seahawks have faced a weak schedule…….4/5 teams that faced them have a loss……

    • None of it. Those teams ratings are adjusted for the fact that they have played the Jets. And the Seahawks teams ratings are adjusted for having to have played Seattle.

      • Scott Peterson

        Sweet!!