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Strength of Schedule Data, Through Week 6 and Rest of Year

The Jets have had a brutal strength of schedule so far. Based on Pro-Football-Reference.com’s SRS ratings, and adjusted for home field, the Jets have had the toughest schedule this year, with home game against the Bengals, and Seahawks, and road games against the Bills, Chiefs, Steelers, and Cardinals.

The good news? For the rest of the season, the Jets have the 21st toughest schedule in the league, and no team has an easier dropoff in schedule than New York. This was predictable — in fact, I wrote just that for 538 in the offseason.

On the flip side, we have the Seahawks. Here’s how to read the table below, using Seattle. They are ranked 32nd, because no team’s schedule gets more difficult. Seattle’s through week 6 SOS — the TW6 SOS column — is -3.06, meaning its average opponent was about three points worse than average. That’s been the 31st toughest (or 2nd easiest) slate in the league. Meanwhile, Seattle’s rest of year SOS — marked as ROY SOS — is +2.13, the 3rd toughest left in football. That’s a difference of -5.19 (i.e., negative is bad, because the schedule is now harder). [click to continue…]


Does pre-season strength of schedule matter?

NFL.com posted an article yesterday looking at the strength of schedule for each team in 2013. We have known each team’s opponents since the end of the regular season, and while the full schedule won’t come out until April, it’s simple to calculate a team’s strength of schedule for 2013. Usually, the media reports this by looking at the win-loss record of each opponent from the prior season. Here are the projected SOSs for each team next season:

TeamSOSOpponent record
Carolina Panthers0.543138-116-2
Detroit Lions0.539138-118-0
New Orleans Saints0.539137-117-2
St. Louis Rams0.539137-117-2
Baltimore Ravens0.535137-119-0
Green Bay Packers0.533136-119-1
Arizona Cardinals0.52131-121-4
Miami Dolphins0.52133-123-0
San Francisco 49ers0.52132-122-2
Minnesota Vikings0.516132-124-0
Seattle Seahawks0.516130-122-4
Cincinnati Bengals0.508130-126-0
Jacksonville Jaguars0.508129-125-2
New England Patriots0.508130-126-0
Atlanta Falcons0.504128-126-0
Chicago Bears0.502128-127-1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers0.5127-127-2
Washington Redskins0.498127-128-1
New York Jets0.496127-129-0
Philadelphia Eagles0.496127-129-0
Cleveland Browns0.492126-130-0
Pittsburgh Steelers0.496126-130-0
Tennessee Titans0.488124-130-2
New York Giants0.48123-133-0
Dallas Cowboys0.48121-134-1
Buffalo Bills0.473121-135-0
Houston Texans0.473120-134-2
Kansas City Chiefs0.473121-135-0
Oakland Raiders0.469120-136-0
Indianapolis Colts0.461117-137-2
San Diego Chargers0.457117-139-0
Denver Broncos0.43110-146-0

[click to continue…]