2014 Running Back Free Agent Market

April 12, 2014 Current Events

The free agent running back market has been as peculiar as it’s been quiet. There have been no big contracts doled out and only a few sizable ones of note, although some of the ensuing narrative about the demise of the running back position has been overblown. Today I want to look at the ten […]

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Owen Daniels and Gary Kubiak, Together Again

April 11, 2014 Current Events

A couple of years ago, I wrote this post about Josh McDaniels and Brandon Lloyd. Well, with Owen Daniels reuniting with Gary Kubiak in Baltimore — lest you forget, Kubiak is the Ravens new offensive coordinator with Jim Caldwell now head coach in Detroit — I thought it might be fun to look at previous […]

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What do Schaub and Fitzpatrick mean for Bortles, Manziel, and Bridgewater?

March 22, 2014 Current Events

The Texans and Raiders recently made a couple of veteran quarterback acquisitions. The team with the first overall pick in May’s draft signed Ryan Fitzpatrick and then traded Matt Schaub to Oakland, owners of the fifth overall selection. Will either team now be deterred from spending a top five pick on Teddy Bridgewater, Blake Bortles, […]

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Free Agency Roundup

March 14, 2014 Current Events

Happy Friday, folks. Dr. Jene Bramel (@JeneBramel), who always has interesting insights on defensive players and injuries in the NFL, is producing multiple daily updates for his excellent blog over at Footballguys.com. Jene is very high on DeMarcus Ware (calling the Broncos as good a fit as any schematically for Ware), a bit lukewarm on […]

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Recapping the News From Day 1 of Free Agency

March 12, 2014 Current Events

Free agency kicked off at 4PM yesterday, the start of what may be the dumbest day of the year. Some absurdly large contracts were dished out, as always, but free agent signings weren’t the only news stories on Tuesday.  The new regime in Tampa Bay appears ready to move on from the Darrelle Revis era, […]

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What Teams Might Sign Jimmy Graham?

March 6, 2014 Current Events

On February 28th, the Saints elected to use the non-exclusive franchise tag on Jimmy Graham. The big dispute now is whether Graham should be classified as a tight end or a wide receiver; if Graham is classified as a tight end, the tag is worth $7.0 million, a number that jumps to $12.3 million if […]

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The AP’s All-Pro Voting Process Is a Joke

February 11, 2014 Checkdowns

In early January, the Associated Press announced its All-Pro team. The voting process is pretty simple: 50 voters select their top players at each position, and a first-team All-Pro squad is announced.  The runners-up at each position are placed on the second-team, but that leads to some very odd results. If fans, teams, and Hall […]

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Super Bowl XLVIII Recap

February 4, 2014 Current Events

It almost seems silly to spend much time recapping one of the most lopsided Super Bowls ever. But we have six months until we get to watch another NFL game, so I think we can spend one more day recapping the 2013 season. One housekeeping note: Football Perspective isn’t going anywhere. Just like last year, […]

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Super Bowl XLVIII Denver/Seattle Preview

January 31, 2014 Current Events

Before we get to my preview, I want to point you to some excellent Super Bowl previews I saw this week: Bill Barnwell at Grantland has a mind-bogglingly in depth Super Bowl preview Brian Burke has created an advanced stats page over at ANS, and he gives the Seahawks a slight edge in his column […]

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Championship Game Preview: New England at Denver

January 18, 2014 Current Events

Someone needs to say it. I know, I know, it’s Manning/Brady XV. But someone needs to remind people that Peyton Manning threw 30 more touchdown passes than Tom Brady in 2013. He threw for over 1,000 more yards. He threw one less interception. He was sacked 22 fewer times. And did I mention that he […]

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Championship Game Preview: San Francisco at Seattle

January 17, 2014 Current Events

It’s Carroll-Harbaugh X! Okay, the Whats Your Deal Bowl may not have quite the hype of Brady/Manning XV, but don’t tell that to folks on the West Coast. Pete Carroll and Jim Harbaugh are longtime rivals who have managed to alienate 31 other fanbases in the NFL. For the record, Harbaugh holds a 6-3 record […]

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The Division Round Gives Us The Championship Round We Want

January 13, 2014 Current Events

By all accounts, this was an underwhelming quartet of games played on The Best Weekend in Football. Last year, the division round gave us an incredible Russell Wilson comeback where the Seahawks scored three fourth quarter touchdowns before falling short against the Falcons and the Peyton Manning-Joe Flacco-Rahim Moore classic. Seattle won this year but […]

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Division Preview: San Diego at Denver

January 12, 2014 Current Events

I’m not going to do it again. This time last year, I thought I wrote a very good preview of the Denver/Baltimore game. I looked at both teams, decided that Denver was much, much better, and ended with this: I think it’s best not to over think this one. Prediction: Denver 31, Baltimore 13 A […]

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Division Preview: San Francisco at Carolina

January 11, 2014 Current Events

At least 400 total yards were gained in every game this season. When Nick Foles threw 7 touchdowns against the Raiders, Oakland actually out-gained Philadelphia, and the two teams combined for a season-high 1,102 yards that day. On the other end of the spectrum was San Francisco/Carolina I, when the two teams combined for just […]

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Division Preview: Indianapolis at New England

January 10, 2014 Current Events

When it comes Patriots/Colts, it’s easy to want to focus on Tom Brady vs. Andrew Luck. Or to marvel at the sheer number of star players these teams have lost in the last 12 months. If you played college in the state of Florida, you’re probably not going to be playing in this game: T.Y. […]

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Division Preview: New Orleans at Seattle

January 10, 2014 Current Events

On the surface, this does not appear to be a very even matchup. In home games in 2013, Seattle outscored opponents by 15.4 points per game, an average that includes the loss to Arizona. In road games during the regular season, the Saints were outscored by 4.6 points per game. Both of those averages, of […]

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Wildcard Preview: San Francisco at Green Bay

January 5, 2014 Current Events

After the projections for most of the week was below-zero weather, the latest reports indicates that by kickoff, the temperature in Green Bay should be in the single digits. The temperature of a game is more open to interpretation than you think: in a lot of the games below, there are different reports depending on […]

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Wildcard Preview: San Diego at Cincinnati

January 5, 2014 Current Events

Every few years, a team like the 2013 Chargers makes the playoffs. This season, San Diego’s offense ranked 3rd in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt, while the defense ranked 3rd to last in the same metric. And these teams, without exception, have flamed out in the playoffs. The Chargers also ranked 2nd in NY/A and […]

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Wildcard Preview: New Orleans at Philadelphia

January 4, 2014 Current Events

Kansas City/Indianapolis Preview New Orleans Saints (11-5) (+2.5) at Philadelphia Eagles (10-6), Saturday 8:10 PM ET We’re fully immune to the Saints offense at this point. Drew Brees just threw for for 5,162 yards and 39 touchdowns and it didn’t even register on most radars. One reason for that: both of those numbers represent three-year […]

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Wildcard Preview: Kansas City at Indianapolis

January 3, 2014 Current Events

Kansas City Chiefs (11-5) (Pick’em) at Indianapolis Colts (13-3), Saturday 4:35PM ET Among the four games this weekend, this one figures to be the most competitive: I would be surprised if this isn’t a one possession game in the fourth quarter. The Colts rank 13th in Football Outsiders DVOA, courtesy of the 13th-ranked offense, the […]

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Final 2013 Game Scripts And Pass Identity Data

January 3, 2014 Current Events

Every week this season, I’ve written about the Game Scripts from the previous weekend. For new readers, the term Game Script is just shorthand for the average points differential for a team over every second of each game. You can check out the updated Game Scripts page, which shows the results of all 256 games […]

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New York Times: Post-Week 17, 2013

January 1, 2014 Current Events

In my final article of the year at the New York Times, I look at one key statistic for each team. Denver Broncos: Quarterback Curse Can Peyton Manning break the hex? Only four quarterbacks — Tom Brady (2007), Rich Gannon (2002), Kurt Warner (2001) and Dan Marino (1984) — have played in a Super Bowl […]

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Your Ultimate Week 17 Preview Guide

December 29, 2013 Current Events

Thanks to the NFL’s decision to pit division rivals against each other in week 17, we have a full slate of entertaining games today. Week Day Date VisTm HomeTm Time 17 Sun December 29 Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons 1:00 PM 17 Sun December 29 Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals 1:00 PM 17 Sun December […]

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Week 16 Game Scripts

December 27, 2013 Current Events

Week 16 saw some very large Game Scripts in some very important games. The Eagles-Bears showdown turned into a laugher, as Philadelphia posted the 3rd best Game Script of the season. The New England/Baltimore rivalry is famous for producing close games, but the Patriots embarrassed the Ravens on their home field. New England scored a […]

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How good are the Panthers?

December 22, 2013 Current Events

Through 15 weeks, Brian Burke ranks the Broncos, 49ers, Panthers, and Seahawks as the top four teams in the NFL. According to his numbers, Carolina has the #7 offense and the #7 defense. Football Outsiders is a little less bullish on Carolina, ranking them 13th. On the other hand, the Panthers have won three of […]

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Week 15 Game Scripts – The Real Cowboys Show Up

December 19, 2013 Current Events

Something just didn’t feel right. Here is what I wrote in last week’s column: Through 12 weeks, the Cowboys had the strongest pass identity in the NFL. Then, against the Raiders in week 13, the Cowboys were pretty run-heavy. And against the Bears in week 14, Dallas produced its best game of the season on […]

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The Cowboys Are 32nd in Yards Differential – What Does That Mean?

December 15, 2013 Current Events

Dallas has been out-gained by 1,280 yards this season, the worst margin in the NFL. But with a 7-6 record, the Cowboys are hardly considered a bad team. So how can we reconcile these two facts? In general, gaining yards and preventing opponents from gaining yards are correlated with success. The other teams in the […]

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Week 14 Game Scripts

December 12, 2013 Current Events

Last week, six teams won with a negative Game Script. During an unforgettable slate of 1PM games in week 14, four teams during that time slot won with a negative Game Script — and that doesn’t include the insane Ravens/Vikings game.  One of the teams to win with a negative Game Script was Miami, so […]

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Recapping An Incredible Slate of 1:00PM Games

December 9, 2013 Current Events

With nine games kicking off at 1:00, you had a feeling that it might be difficult to keep up. That would be true on a normal Sunday, but week 14 provided some of the craziest games in recent memory. So let’s bring everyone up to speed on what they might have missed: Miami 34, Pittsburgh […]

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Is Ohio State Going 13-0 More Impressive than Auburn going 12-1?

December 7, 2013 College

Let’s just assume that Auburn defeats Missouri this afternoon and Ohio State defeats Michigan State tonight. Which team would have pulled off the more impressive feat: Ohio State, going undefeated against a relatively easy schedule, or Auburn going 12-1 against a harder schedule? That’s a tricky question to answer, but here is one way to […]

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