With free agency and the NFL Draft behind us, it’s a good time to take stock of the NFL landscape. Over at ESPN, Bill Barnwell is recapping each division, starting today with the AFC East. I thought I’d post the latest Super Bowl odds, courtesy of Bovada, along with the odds from the end of season (February 8th) and after the first rush of free agency (March 14th).
All odds have a vig associated with them; for example, the Patriots, at 7/1, would have a 12.5% chance (1 divided by 7 + 1) to win the Super Bowl if there was no vig; but if you take the odds of all 32 teams, they sum to 124.8%, not 100%. As a result, every team’s implied odds are divided by 1.248 to get their vig-adjusted Super Bowl odds, shown in the last column.
| Rk | Team | Feb 8 | Mar 14 | May 4 | Perc |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New England Patriots | 9/1 | 15/2 | 7/1 | 10% |
| 2 | Seattle Seahawks | 9/1 | 10/1 | 8/1 | 8.9% |
| 3 | Green Bay Packers | 12/1 | 10/1 | 10/1 | 7.3% |
| 3 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 12/1 | 10/1 | 10/1 | 7.3% |
| 5 | Carolina Panthers | 9/1 | 10/1 | 11/1 | 6.7% |
| 6 | Arizona Cardinals | 14/1 | 16/1 | 14/1 | 5.3% |
| 7 | Denver Broncos | 16/1 | 10/1 | 16/1 | 4.7% |
| 8 | Cincinnati Bengals | 20/1 | 22/1 | 18/1 | 4.2% |
| 9 | Dallas Cowboys | 16/1 | 20/1 | 22/1 | 3.5% |
| 9 | Indianapolis Colts | 25/1 | 25/1 | 22/1 | 3.5% |
| 9 | Minnesota Vikings | 25/1 | 22/1 | 22/1 | 3.5% |
| 12 | Kansas City Chiefs | 25/1 | 25/1 | 25/1 | 3.1% |
| 12 | New York Giants | 33/1 | 33/1 | 25/1 | 3.1% |
| 12 | Oakland Raiders | 66/1 | 33/1 | 25/1 | 3.1% |
| 15 | Baltimore Ravens | 33/1 | 40/1 | 33/1 | 2.4% |
| 15 | Houston Texans | 40/1 | 20/1 | 33/1 | 2.4% |
| 17 | New York Jets | 33/1 | 50/1 | 40/1 | 2% |
| 17 | Washington Redskins | 50/1 | 50/1 | 40/1 | 2% |
| 19 | Atlanta Falcons | 33/1 | 50/1 | 50/1 | 1.6% |
| 19 | Buffalo Bills | 33/1 | 50/1 | 50/1 | 1.6% |
| 19 | Chicago Bears | 40/1 | 50/1 | 50/1 | 1.6% |
| 19 | Los Angeles Rams | 50/1 | 50/1 | 50/1 | 1.6% |
| 19 | Philadelphia Eagles | 33/1 | 50/1 | 50/1 | 1.6% |
| 24 | Detroit Lions | 33/1 | 50/1 | 66/1 | 1.2% |
| 24 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 66/1 | 66/1 | 66/1 | 1.2% |
| 24 | Miami Dolphins | 50/1 | 66/1 | 66/1 | 1.2% |
| 24 | New Orleans Saints | 33/1 | 50/1 | 66/1 | 1.2% |
| 24 | San Diego Chargers | 50/1 | 50/1 | 66/1 | 1.2% |
| 29 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 50/1 | 50/1 | 75/1 | 1.1% |
| 30 | Cleveland Browns | 150/1 | 150/1 | 100/1 | 0.8% |
| 30 | San Francisco 49ers | 50/1 | 66/1 | 100/1 | 0.8% |
| 30 | Tennessee Titans | 66/1 | 100/1 | 100/1 | 0.8% |
I find it a bit odd that the Patriots odds have increased: the team’s most noteworthy items this offseason were trading Chandler Jones and losing four games from Tom Brady; frankly, I can’t explain. New England’s odds have improved the most of any team (by 2.5%, without a vig adjustment); the only team over 2% is Oakland (from 1.5% to just under 4.0%), with Pittsburgh, Green Bay, and Seattle being the other big movers. Anyone have any guesses? It may just be the lack of any other clear AFC contender. Pittsburgh is the only other AFC team with better than 15/1 odds, while four NFC teams are legitimate Super Bowl contenders. Meanwhile, as Barnwell noted, none of the other AFC East teams have made appreciable gains this off-season, at least on paper.
What stands out to you? I’ll also note that the AFC West should be fascinating this year: it’s one of three divisions (NFC East, AFC South) without a team with 15/1 or better Super Bowl odds, but the only division with three teams with better than 30/1 Super Bowl odds.