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2017 Super Bowl Odds

With free agency and the NFL Draft behind us, it’s a good time to take stock of the NFL landscape. Over at ESPN, Bill Barnwell is recapping each division, starting today with the AFC East. I thought I’d post the latest Super Bowl odds, courtesy of Bovada, along with the odds from the end of season (February 8th) and after the first rush of free agency (March 14th).

All odds have a vig associated with them; for example, the Patriots, at 7/1, would have a 12.5% chance (1 divided by 7 + 1) to win the Super Bowl if there was no vig; but if you take the odds of all 32 teams, they sum to 124.8%, not 100%. As a result, every team’s implied odds are divided by 1.248 to get their vig-adjusted Super Bowl odds, shown in the last column.

RkTeamFeb 8Mar 14May 4Perc
1New England Patriots 9/115/27/110%
2Seattle Seahawks     9/110/18/18.9%
3Green Bay Packers    12/110/110/17.3%
3Pittsburgh Steelers  12/110/110/17.3%
5Carolina Panthers    9/110/111/16.7%
6Arizona Cardinals    14/116/114/15.3%
7Denver Broncos       16/110/116/14.7%
8Cincinnati Bengals   20/122/118/14.2%
9Dallas Cowboys       16/120/122/13.5%
9Indianapolis Colts   25/125/122/13.5%
9Minnesota Vikings    25/122/122/13.5%
12Kansas City Chiefs   25/125/125/13.1%
12New York Giants      33/133/125/13.1%
12Oakland Raiders      66/133/125/13.1%
15Baltimore Ravens     33/140/133/12.4%
15Houston Texans       40/120/133/12.4%
17New York Jets        33/150/140/12%
17Washington Redskins  50/150/140/12%
19Atlanta Falcons      33/150/150/11.6%
19Buffalo Bills        33/150/150/11.6%
19Chicago Bears        40/150/150/11.6%
19Los Angeles Rams     50/150/150/11.6%
19Philadelphia Eagles  33/150/150/11.6%
24Detroit Lions        33/150/166/11.2%
24Jacksonville Jaguars 66/166/166/11.2%
24Miami Dolphins       50/166/166/11.2%
24New Orleans Saints   33/150/166/11.2%
24San Diego Chargers   50/150/166/11.2%
29Tampa Bay Buccaneers 50/150/175/11.1%
30Cleveland Browns     150/1150/1100/10.8%
30San Francisco 49ers  50/166/1100/10.8%
30Tennessee Titans     66/1100/1100/10.8%

I find it a bit odd that the Patriots odds have increased: the team’s most noteworthy items this offseason were trading Chandler Jones and losing four games from Tom Brady; frankly, I can’t explain. New England’s odds have improved the most of any team (by 2.5%, without a vig adjustment); the only team over 2% is Oakland (from 1.5% to just under 4.0%), with Pittsburgh, Green Bay, and Seattle being the other big movers. Anyone have any guesses? It may just be the lack of any other clear AFC contender. Pittsburgh is the only other AFC team with better than 15/1 odds, while four NFC teams are legitimate Super Bowl contenders. Meanwhile, as Barnwell noted, none of the other AFC East teams have made appreciable gains this off-season, at least on paper.

What stands out to you? I’ll also note that the AFC West should be fascinating this year: it’s one of three divisions (NFC East, AFC South) without a team with 15/1 or better Super Bowl odds, but the only division with three teams with better than 30/1 Super Bowl odds.

  • AgronomyBrad

    I’d have to agree that the Patriots’ increase is probably due more to the fact that their major competitors in the AFC (Denver, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, etc) haven’t made any appreciable gains, or have gone backwards. The AFC East belongs to New England as long as Bill Belichick is there, and their schedule looks fairly soft at this point, so there’s no reason they couldn’t lock up the #1 seed in the AFC. Barring any major injuries, which is key for any team obviously, I don’t see why New England wouldn’t be the AFC favorite, and therefore have the best SuperBowl odds.

  • Richie

    Any thoughts on the Dolphins dropping? I’m not expecting big things from them this year, but their main losses were Olivier Vernon and Lamar Miller. I think the addition of Alonso, Maxwell, Williams, Tunsil and (maybe) Dion Jordan should at least be a net wash in talent level.

  • Richie

    Why did Denver’s odds move from 16/1 to 10/1 AFTER Osweiler signed with Houston? I would have expected the opposite.

  • Richie

    It looks like there was just some kind of correction after February 8.

    The Feb 8 odds had a cumulative AFC winning the Super Bowl 59% and the NFC winning 74% (no vig adjustment obviously). By March 14 those evened out to 67% for AFC and 66% for NFC. Then May 4 was similar at 66%/68%.

  • Adam

    I’d imagine Vegas projects NE to go 3-1 without Brady, which is likely the same as their projected record with him.

  • Alejandro

    The 49ers were in the Super Bowl less than 5 years ago. Now they’re tied with the Titans and the Browns for least likely to make it back. Wow.

  • Yazan Gable

    They did add Martellus Bennett. He might as well be the Tight End equivalent of Matt Forte with regards to the ratio of news recognition versus how good he is at his position. It’s like Chicago is a black hole of people noticing good players on that team and only notice Jay Cutler.

  • Josh Sanford

    Here’s my theory for why Vegas expects America to bet on the Patriots: Brady is 135 games over .500 in his career (with playoffs); all other Patriot QBs in the history of the franchise are a combined 202 games below .500

    • Richie

      Nobody is questioning why they are a favorite. The question is why have their odds improved over the last 3 months.

      • Josh Sanford

        People have short memories…and the Patriots have not lost a game in since January! ; )

        • Josh Sanford

          On an unrelated note…what’s the record of teams with losing records in the year before they win the SB? And if you HAD to pick a team that had a losing record last season and they’d make it to the SB this year, who would it be? Is it Dallas?

          • Richie

            Maybe Dallas or Baltimore.

          • JeremyDeShetler

            Looked quickly. Only saw 2 teams with a losing record preceding a Super Bowl win. 1981 49ers and 2001 Patriots had 6 and 5 wins respectively in the year before. The 2009 Saints, 2007 Giants, 1999 Ravens, and 1982 Redskins were all 8-8 in the year prior.

  • Andrew Healy

    Very strange about the Patriots. I’m also a little surprised the 49ers are all the way at the bottom. Seems like Chip Kelly makes the 49ers have some very hard-to-define upside.