Survivor Pool

NFL Survivor Pool Thoughts, Week 2(2016)

by Chase Stuart on September 15, 2016

Last week, I decided to pick Houston at home against Chicago, which worked out (as would have the other teams I was considering: Kansas City and Seattle). As long as you didn’t pick the Cardinals or Colts, you probably advanced last week, so let’s move on to week 2:

Date & Time	Favorite	Spread	Underdog
9/15 8:25 ET	NY Jets	-1.5	At Buffalo
9/18 1:00 ET	At Detroit	-6	Tennessee
9/18 1:00 ET	At Houston	-2.5	Kansas City
9/18 1:00 ET	At New England	-6.5	Miami
9/18 1:00 ET	Baltimore	-6.5	At Cleveland
9/18 1:00 ET	At Pittsburgh	-3.5	Cincinnati
9/18 1:00 ET	At Washington	-3	Dallas
9/18 1:00 ET	At NY Giants	-4.5	New Orleans
9/18 1:00 ET	At Carolina	-13.5	San Francisco
9/18 4:05 ET	At Arizona	-6.5	Tampa Bay
9/18 4:05 ET	Seattle	-6.5	At Los Angeles
9/18 4:25 ET	At Denver	-6	Indianapolis
9/18 4:25 ET	At Oakland	-5	Atlanta
9/18 4:25 ET	At San Diego	-3	Jacksonville
9/18 8:30 ET	Green Bay	-2	At Minnesota
9/19 8:35 ET	At Chicago	-3	Philadelphia

There are five teams that are 6.5-point favorites or greater, but I’m way too scared of Seattle against Los Angeles or of Baltimore on the road to take either of those teams. Miami is at New England, but I see no reason to take the Patriots now when Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski are not around. Save the Patriots for later. [continue reading…]

Tagged as: Survivor Pool

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NFL Survivor Pool Thoughts (2016)

by Chase Stuart on September 1, 2016

in Current Events

I’m entering a Survivor Pool this year, so I plan on posting about my picks for exactly as long as I stay alive. Given the uncertainty involved in projecting an NFL season, I don’t think the payoff is there to project every week in the preseason and produce a model telling you which team to will use in each week. By week 5, a lot of our assumptions will have changed, injuries will make some teams an easy one-week play, and so. Flexibility is just as important as foresight, and there’s a lot of uncertainty about the future.

As a result, rather than getting too technical, I am simply going to place an early focus on trying to stay alive, with some emphasis on saving good teams for later. And to always look one week ahead.

Those two masters are in conflict right away, as one of the league’s most dependable teams is also the clear best choice in survivor leagues for week 1. Take a look at the current spreads: [continue reading…]

Tagged as: Survivor Pool

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