The Biggest Quarter-by-Quarter Comebacks Since 1978

[Today is a two-post day at Football Perspective. Check here for my week 2 power rankings, while Neil provides an innovative look at the biggest comebacks of the last 35 years in this post. -- Chase

In my last post, I introduced a method of estimating the home team's pre-game win probability in Excel using the Vegas spread:

p(W) = (1-NORMDIST(0.5,-(home_line),13.86,TRUE)) + 0.5*(NORMDIST(0.5,-(home_line),13.86,TRUE)-NORMDIST(-0.5,-(home_line),13.86,TRUE))

The Comeback ranks as the 2nd most impressive comeback after two quarters, but only 20th overall.

Let me explain the rationale behind the scary-looking equation. The first part represents the probability that the home team ends regulation time with a lead of 1 point or more, using Hal Stern’s finding that the home team’s final margin of victory can be approximated by a normal random variable with a mean of the Vegas line and a standard deviation of 13.86. The second part is the probability that regulation ends in a tie, multiplied by 0.5 (this assumes each team has roughly a 50-50 chance of winning in overtime).

With a small twist, we can also apply this formula within games, to the line-score data for every quarter. Within a game, the home team’s probability becomes:

p(W) = (1-NORMDIST(away_margin+0.5,-home_line*(minleft/60),13.86/SQRT(60/minleft),TRUE))+0.5*(NORMDIST(away_margin+0.5,-home_line*(minleft/60),13.86/SQRT(60/minleft),TRUE)-NORMDIST(away_margin-0.5,-home_line*(minleft/60),13.86/SQRT(60/minleft),TRUE))

This is the same equation as before, but we’re adding in Home_Margin (home team pts minus road team pts for the game, through the end of the quarter in question), reducing the effect of the home Vegas line linearly based on how much time remains in the game, and changing the standard deviation of scoring margin to become:

Stdev = 13.86 / sqrt(60 / n)

where n = the number of minutes remaining in the game.

These changes will help us estimate a team’s chances of winning at the end of each quarter. For instance, Monday night’s game — where the Falcons were a 3-point home favorite over the Broncos — goes from:

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Total
Atlanta	10	10	7	0	27
Denver	0	7	0	14	21

To this:

Team	Pregame	After 1st	At Half	After 3rd	Final
Atlanta	58.6%	84.6%	93.0%	99.9%	100.0%
Denver	41.4%	15.4%	7.0%	0.1%	0.0%

If you made it through all that, my hat’s off to you — and now let’s look at the real reason you’re here, the list of the biggest quarter-by-quarter comebacks since 1978. In each case, the columns represent the percentage likelihood of winning for the home team:

Rank	Game	Pregame	After 1st	At Half	After 3rd	After 4th	Final	Comeback
1	12/1/1985 min 28 @ phi (-6.5) 23	68.03%	89.22%	99.11%	99.98%	0.00%	0.00%	0.02%
2	11/8/1987 tam 28 @ crd (-2.5) 31	57.15%	33.48%	16.02%	0.02%	100.00%	100.00%	0.02%
3	10/23/2000 mia 37 @ nyj (-3) 40	58.56%	10.98%	6.98%	0.07%	50.00%	100.00%	0.07%
4	10/6/2003 clt 38 @ tam (-4.5) 35	62.72%	92.60%	99.11%	99.93%	50.00%	0.00%	0.07%
5	11/26/2006 nyg 21 @ oti (3.5) 24	40.04%	21.15%	1.02%	0.08%	100.00%	100.00%	0.08%
6	9/12/1999 dal 41 @ was (-2.5) 35	57.15%	42.98%	51.02%	99.91%	50.00%	0.00%	0.09%
7	10/4/1992 was 24 @ crd (10) 27	23.54%	3.68%	1.25%	0.16%	100.00%	100.00%	0.16%
8	10/21/1984 nor 27 @ dal (-6) 30	66.74%	73.38%	20.75%	0.25%	50.00%	100.00%	0.25%
9	9/26/1988 rai 30 @ den (-6.5) 27	68.03%	83.85%	99.73%	95.29%	50.00%	0.00%	0.27%
10	12/4/2005 buf 23 @ mia (-3) 24	58.56%	5.93%	4.63%	0.28%	100.00%	100.00%	0.28%
11	10/4/1992 chi 20 @ min (-4) 21	61.35%	50.00%	13.12%	0.31%	100.00%	100.00%	0.31%
12	12/11/1993 sfo 24 @ atl (8) 27	28.20%	30.87%	7.68%	0.31%	100.00%	100.00%	0.31%
13	12/5/2004 cin 27 @ rav (-6.5) 26	68.03%	74.39%	73.79%	99.63%	0.00%	0.00%	0.37%
14	10/8/1995 clt 27 @ mia (-10) 24	76.46%	96.32%	99.60%	99.12%	50.00%	0.00%	0.40%
15	9/17/2006 nyg 30 @ phi (-3) 24	58.56%	57.43%	87.94%	99.47%	50.00%	0.00%	0.53%
16	10/12/2003 kan 40 @ gnb (-2.5) 34	57.15%	77.00%	79.97%	99.44%	50.00%	0.00%	0.56%
17	12/27/2009 tam 20 @ nor (-14) 17	84.36%	97.93%	98.38%	99.41%	50.00%	0.00%	0.59%
18	12/7/1980 nor 35 @ sfo (-7) 38	69.31%	23.32%	0.63%	3.89%	50.00%	100.00%	0.63%
19	12/6/1992 ram 31 @ tam (-1) 27	52.87%	71.29%	99.37%	68.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.63%
20	1/3/1993 oti 38 @ buf (-2) 41	55.73%	41.76%	0.72%	30.72%	50.00%	100.00%	0.72%
21	10/28/2001 nor 34 @ ram (-12) 31	80.65%	95.20%	99.28%	28.24%	0.00%	0.00%	0.72%
22	12/11/1983 clt 19 @ den (-8.5) 21	73.00%	61.06%	11.56%	0.76%	100.00%	100.00%	0.76%
23	12/21/1996 nwe 23 @ nyg (8.5) 22	27.00%	35.79%	96.48%	99.24%	0.00%	0.00%	0.76%
24	9/12/1982 ram 23 @ gnb (1) 35	47.13%	18.54%	0.83%	9.15%	100.00%	100.00%	0.83%
25	12/24/1995 min 24 @ cin (5) 27	35.92%	37.75%	0.83%	11.75%	100.00%	100.00%	0.83%
26	11/10/1996 crd 37 @ was (-10.5) 34	77.55%	74.39%	70.37%	99.16%	50.00%	0.00%	0.84%
27	10/4/1998 det 27 @ chi (-2) 31	55.73%	23.96%	54.06%	0.88%	100.00%	100.00%	0.88%
28	11/4/1990 was 41 @ det (3) 38	41.44%	42.57%	89.86%	99.03%	50.00%	0.00%	0.97%
29	8/31/1997 crd 21 @ cin (-7.5) 24	70.57%	45.44%	23.00%	1.01%	100.00%	100.00%	1.01%
30	10/25/1987 buf 34 @ mia (-9.5) 31	75.33%	96.07%	98.98%	82.06%	50.00%	0.00%	1.02%
31	9/13/1981 atl 31 @ gnb (4) 17	38.65%	63.04%	88.93%	98.94%	0.00%	0.00%	1.06%
32	11/24/1996 jax 28 @ rav (-4) 25	61.35%	79.74%	79.25%	98.94%	50.00%	0.00%	1.06%
33	10/10/2004 ram 33 @ sea (-8) 27	71.80%	86.04%	98.38%	98.94%	50.00%	0.00%	1.06%
34	12/19/2010 phi 38 @ nyg (-3) 31	58.56%	77.93%	98.91%	98.31%	0.00%	0.00%	1.09%
35	11/18/1984 mia 28 @ sdg (7) 34	30.69%	55.79%	14.23%	1.17%	50.00%	100.00%	1.17%
36	10/2/2011 sfo 24 @ phi (-10) 23	76.46%	88.63%	98.75%	88.94%	0.00%	0.00%	1.25%
37	11/6/1988 sfo 23 @ crd (-3) 24	58.56%	47.51%	6.98%	1.41%	100.00%	100.00%	1.41%
38	1/5/2003 nyg 38 @ sfo (-3) 39	58.56%	57.43%	10.14%	1.41%	100.00%	100.00%	1.41%
39	10/31/1993 det 30 @ min (-4) 27	61.35%	59.86%	72.95%	98.46%	0.00%	0.00%	1.54%
40	12/30/2001 pit 23 @ cin (8) 26	28.20%	4.80%	13.12%	1.54%	50.00%	100.00%	1.54%
41	10/23/1983 atl 27 @ nyj (-3.5) 21	59.96%	58.65%	81.37%	98.39%	0.00%	0.00%	1.61%
42	11/28/1999 kan 37 @ rai (-3.5) 34	59.96%	68.02%	68.58%	98.39%	0.00%	0.00%	1.61%
43	12/3/1979 rai 42 @ nor (-3) 35	58.56%	34.63%	94.29%	98.31%	0.00%	0.00%	1.69%
44	11/27/1980 chi 23 @ det (-3) 17	58.56%	66.89%	80.68%	98.31%	50.00%	0.00%	1.69%
45	11/21/1983 nyj 31 @ nor (-3) 28	58.56%	77.93%	56.07%	98.31%	0.00%	0.00%	1.69%
46	10/27/1985 buf 17 @ phi (-9) 21	74.18%	49.17%	28.76%	1.69%	100.00%	100.00%	1.69%
47	1/4/1981 dal 30 @ atl (-2.5) 27	57.15%	77.00%	79.97%	98.24%	0.00%	0.00%	1.76%
48	9/12/1982 was 37 @ phi (-6.5) 34	68.03%	89.22%	59.07%	98.24%	50.00%	0.00%	1.76%
49	11/19/2000 sdg 37 @ den (-9.5) 38	75.33%	63.43%	17.29%	1.76%	100.00%	100.00%	1.76%
50	12/10/1995 sea 31 @ den (-7) 27	69.31%	89.79%	98.16%	95.46%	0.00%	0.00%	1.84%
51	10/28/1984 den 22 @ rai (-6) 19	66.74%	86.94%	82.05%	98.16%	50.00%	0.00%	1.84%
52	9/10/2000 rai 38 @ clt (-6.5) 31	68.03%	94.19%	98.05%	21.96%	0.00%	0.00%	1.95%
53	11/12/2006 sdg 49 @ cin (1.5) 41	45.69%	95.10%	98.05%	91.70%	0.00%	0.00%	1.95%
54	9/28/1980 nor 16 @ mia (-7) 21	69.31%	66.89%	28.76%	2.01%	100.00%	100.00%	2.01%
55	10/21/1984 pit 16 @ clt (5) 17	35.92%	28.71%	5.71%	2.01%	100.00%	100.00%	2.01%
56	9/13/1987 ram 16 @ oti (5) 20	35.92%	20.85%	10.14%	2.01%	100.00%	100.00%	2.01%
57	11/26/1989 ram 20 @ nor (0) 17	50.00%	71.99%	76.22%	97.80%	50.00%	0.00%	2.20%
58	9/20/1992 cin 23 @ gnb (0) 24	50.00%	50.00%	23.78%	2.20%	100.00%	100.00%	2.20%
59	11/3/1996 cin 24 @ rav (-3.5) 21	59.96%	78.85%	97.79%	95.63%	0.00%	0.00%	2.21%
60	9/16/1990 crd 23 @ phi (-13.5) 21	83.48%	97.77%	91.94%	93.23%	0.00%	0.00%	2.23%
61	11/12/1978 oti 26 @ nwe (-7) 23	69.31%	82.55%	97.65%	93.91%	0.00%	0.00%	2.35%
62	10/5/1980 buf 26 @ sdg (-7) 24	69.31%	77.93%	80.68%	97.61%	0.00%	0.00%	2.39%
63	11/9/1980 kan 31 @ sea (-3) 30	58.56%	47.51%	94.29%	97.61%	0.00%	0.00%	2.39%
64	10/6/1991 phi 13 @ tam (3) 14	41.44%	42.57%	43.93%	2.39%	100.00%	100.00%	2.39%
65	11/1/1992 oti 20 @ pit (3) 21	41.44%	33.11%	47.97%	2.39%	100.00%	100.00%	2.39%
66	9/19/1993 cle 19 @ rai (-3) 16	58.56%	84.61%	93.02%	97.61%	0.00%	0.00%	2.39%
67	9/29/1996 ram 28 @ crd (-1) 31	52.87%	30.14%	25.39%	2.39%	50.00%	100.00%	2.39%
68	12/29/2002 sea 31 @ sdg (-3) 28	58.56%	34.63%	67.67%	97.61%	50.00%	0.00%	2.39%
69	12/11/1983 crd 34 @ rai (-9) 24	74.18%	97.60%	80.68%	45.70%	0.00%	0.00%	2.40%
70	9/5/1983 dal 31 @ was (1.5) 30	45.69%	77.00%	97.51%	79.09%	0.00%	0.00%	2.49%
71	9/17/1989 nor 34 @ gnb (4.5) 35	37.28%	7.40%	2.49%	27.64%	100.00%	100.00%	2.49%
72	11/27/2005 ram 33 @ htx (3.5) 27	40.04%	64.21%	97.51%	97.06%	50.00%	0.00%	2.49%
73	12/26/2010 htx 23 @ den (2.5) 24	42.85%	23.00%	3.15%	2.49%	100.00%	100.00%	2.49%
74	10/2/2011 det 34 @ dal (-2.5) 30	57.15%	77.00%	96.85%	97.51%	0.00%	0.00%	2.49%
75	12/11/1989 sfo 30 @ ram (2) 27	44.27%	90.15%	72.95%	97.40%	0.00%	0.00%	2.60%
76	9/10/1995 clt 27 @ nyj (2) 24	44.27%	85.09%	90.74%	97.40%	50.00%	0.00%	2.60%
77	11/26/1995 nwe 35 @ buf (-6) 25	66.74%	64.60%	88.93%	97.40%	0.00%	0.00%	2.60%
78	12/30/2002 sfo 20 @ ram (-2) 31	55.73%	45.03%	5.15%	2.60%	100.00%	100.00%	2.60%
79	11/20/1983 det 23 @ gnb (-4) 20	61.35%	71.99%	97.36%	87.52%	50.00%	0.00%	2.64%
80	11/21/2010 buf 49 @ cin (-4) 31	61.35%	59.86%	97.36%	71.76%	0.00%	0.00%	2.64%
81	12/8/1991 buf 30 @ rai (-1.5) 27	54.31%	63.43%	75.42%	97.29%	50.00%	0.00%	2.71%
82	10/31/1999 nyg 23 @ phi (2.5) 17	42.85%	43.80%	90.31%	97.29%	50.00%	0.00%	2.71%
83	12/14/1997 sea 22 @ rai (-1.5) 21	54.31%	89.60%	97.20%	91.14%	0.00%	0.00%	2.80%
84	9/19/1999 clt 28 @ nwe (-4.5) 31	62.72%	18.82%	2.80%	3.19%	100.00%	100.00%	2.80%
85	10/1/1989 atl 21 @ gnb (-7) 23	69.31%	44.21%	32.33%	2.83%	100.00%	100.00%	2.83%
86	10/6/1991 min 20 @ det (-3) 24	58.56%	34.63%	16.65%	2.83%	100.00%	100.00%	2.83%
87	12/15/1991 mia 30 @ sdg (1) 38	47.13%	37.75%	47.97%	2.83%	100.00%	100.00%	2.83%
88	10/25/1981 kan 28 @ rai (-3) 17	58.56%	77.93%	97.03%	93.91%	0.00%	0.00%	2.97%
89	12/1/1986 nyg 21 @ sfo (-3) 17	58.56%	66.89%	97.03%	32.00%	0.00%	0.00%	2.97%
90	11/8/1992 cin 31 @ chi (-9) 28	74.18%	71.29%	97.03%	90.85%	50.00%	0.00%	2.97%
91	10/14/2001 mia 17 @ nyj (3) 21	41.44%	22.07%	2.97%	29.47%	100.00%	100.00%	2.97%
92	9/25/2011 det 26 @ min (3) 23	41.44%	62.25%	97.03%	90.85%	50.00%	0.00%	2.97%
93	11/29/1981 rai 32 @ sea (0) 31	50.00%	50.00%	76.22%	96.93%	0.00%	0.00%	3.07%
94	12/21/1986 was 21 @ phi (4) 14	38.65%	82.01%	88.93%	96.93%	0.00%	0.00%	3.07%
95	10/13/1991 rai 23 @ sea (-2.5) 20	57.15%	65.76%	96.85%	93.69%	50.00%	0.00%	3.15%
96	11/13/1994 min 20 @ nwe (2.5) 26	42.85%	16.15%	3.15%	6.31%	50.00%	100.00%	3.15%
97	12/27/1997 min 23 @ nyg (-4.5) 22	62.72%	78.24%	96.85%	92.75%	0.00%	0.00%	3.15%
98	11/4/2001 cle 21 @ chi (-4.5) 27	62.72%	38.14%	59.07%	3.19%	50.00%	100.00%	3.19%
99	10/5/2003 rai 21 @ chi (3.5) 24	40.04%	23.64%	4.39%	3.19%	100.00%	100.00%	3.19%
100	10/26/1980 pit 26 @ cle (3) 27	41.44%	15.39%	22.24%	3.32%	100.00%	100.00%	3.32%

(“Comeback” lists the lowest probability that the winning team had at the end of any quarter.)

And just for fun, here’s a table of QBs since ’78 who led a comeback team in attempts during the game in question, ranked by the sum of their career “comeback points” (100% minus the comeback scores listed above):

Rk	Quarterback	Comeback Pts	Biggest Comeback	Score
1	Brett Favre	90.64	9/20/1992 - gnb 24, cin 23	97.80%
2	Dan Marino	76.84	1/5/1991 - mia 17, kan 16	96.26%
3	John Elway	75.11	12/11/1983 - den 21, clt 19	99.24%
4	Peyton Manning	67.76	10/6/2003 - clt 38, tam 35	99.93%
5	Tom Brady	61.19	12/2/2001 - nwe 17, nyj 16	93.02%
6	Joe Montana	60.35	12/7/1980 - sfo 38, nor 35	99.37%
7	Vinny Testaverde	56.65	10/23/2000 - nyj 40, mia 37	99.93%
8	Warren Moon	54.82	9/13/1987 - oti 20, ram 16	97.99%
9	Drew Bledsoe	53.28	12/21/1996 - nwe 23, nyg 22	99.24%
10	Dave Krieg	53.24	9/17/1995 - crd 20, det 17	96.54%
11	Jim Kelly	51.20	10/25/1987 - buf 34, mia 31	98.98%
12	Donovan McNabb	49.77	10/10/2010 - was 16, gnb 13	93.91%
13	Phil Simms	48.95	12/1/1986 - nyg 21, sfo 17	97.03%
14	Steve McNair	47.84	9/8/2002 - oti 27, phi 24	93.46%
15	Kerry Collins	47.33	12/17/1995 - car 21, atl 17	92.15%
16	Drew Brees	47.33	11/17/2002 - sdg 20, sfo 17	93.69%
17	Boomer Esiason	44.84	11/10/1996 - crd 37, was 34	99.16%
18	Randall Cunningham	43.69	12/27/1997 - min 23, nyg 22	96.85%
19	Eli Manning	42.26	9/17/2006 - nyg 30, phi 24	99.47%
20	Mark Brunell	41.99	11/24/1996 - jax 28, rav 25	98.94%
21	Ben Roethlisberger	41.81	10/17/2004 - pit 24, dal 20	93.91%
22	Matt Hasselbeck	41.74	12/29/2002 - sea 31, sdg 28	97.61%
23	Troy Aikman	41.34	9/12/1999 - dal 41, was 35	99.91%
24	Brad Johnson	40.66	10/8/2006 - min 26, det 17	96.40%
25	Jake Plummer	39.49	9/12/1999 - crd 25, phi 24	95.37%
26	Dan Fouts	37.58	11/18/1984 - sdg 34, mia 28	98.83%
27	Rich Gannon	37.39	10/4/1992 - min 21, chi 20	99.69%
28	Ron Jaworski	37.22	10/27/1985 - phi 21, buf 17	98.31%
29	Chris Chandler	36.89	10/4/1992 - crd 27, was 24	99.84%
30	Jim Harbaugh	36.69	10/8/1995 - clt 27, mia 24	99.60%
31	Jim Everett	36.27	12/6/1992 - ram 31, tam 27	99.37%
32	Joe Theismann	36.21	9/12/1982 - was 37, phi 34	98.24%
33	Jim McMahon	34.15	10/25/1987 - chi 27, tam 26	91.42%
34	Steve Young	34.05	11/15/1992 - sfo 21, nor 20	95.11%
35	Steve DeBerg	34.01	11/13/1988 - kan 31, cin 28	93.69%
36	Jay Schroeder	33.34	9/26/1988 - rai 30, den 27	99.73%
37	Trent Dilfer	33.14	11/17/1996 - tam 25, sdg 17	91.19%
38	Kurt Warner	32.81	9/30/2007 - crd 21, pit 14	83.35%
39	Jake Delhomme	32.76	11/14/2004 - car 37, sfo 27	93.36%
40	Danny White	31.61	10/21/1984 - dal 30, nor 27	99.75%
41	Steve Bartkowski	31.41	9/13/1981 - atl 31, gnb 17	98.94%
42	Jeff Garcia	30.99	1/5/2003 - sfo 39, nyg 38	98.59%
43	Neil O'Donnell	30.29	11/1/1992 - pit 21, oti 20	97.61%
44	Bobby Hebert	30.07	12/11/1993 - atl 27, sfo 24	99.69%
45	Philip Rivers	29.76	11/12/2006 - sdg 49, cin 41	98.05%
46	Jon Kitna	29.69	12/30/2001 - cin 26, pit 23	98.46%
47	Steve Grogan	29.52	9/24/1978 - nwe 21, rai 14	94.19%
48	Tommy Kramer	29.13	12/14/1980 - min 28, cle 23	93.02%
49	Michael Vick	29.08	12/19/2010 - phi 38, nyg 31	98.91%
50	Doug Williams	29.05	12/4/1988 - was 20, phi 19	92.24%
51	Trent Green	28.41	10/12/2003 - kan 40, gnb 34	99.44%
52	Steve Beuerlein	28.30	11/5/2000 - car 27, ram 24	94.92%
53	Joe Ferguson	28.29	10/5/1980 - buf 26, sdg 24	97.61%
54	Neil Lomax	28.27	11/8/1987 - crd 31, tam 28	99.98%
55	Ken O'Brien	27.85	9/24/1989 - nyj 40, mia 33	95.79%
56	Bernie Kosar	27.27	10/26/1986 - cle 23, min 20	94.85%
57	Gus Frerotte	27.11	11/19/2000 - den 38, sdg 37	98.24%
58	Carson Palmer	26.48	12/5/2004 - cin 27, rav 26	99.63%
59	Kordell Stewart	26.40	10/5/2003 - chi 24, rai 21	96.81%
60	Rodney Peete	26.23	10/31/1993 - det 30, min 27	98.46%
61	Jeff George	26.18	11/10/1991 - clt 28, nyj 27	92.30%
62	Richard Todd	25.78	11/21/1983 - nyj 31, nor 28	98.31%
63	Stan Humphries	25.72	11/13/1994 - sdg 14, kan 13	93.02%
64	Jeff Hostetler	25.71	1/2/1994 - rai 33, den 30	90.85%
65	Jeff Blake	25.17	12/24/1995 - cin 27, min 24	99.17%
66	Jim Zorn	24.51	11/8/1981 - sea 24, pit 21	96.11%
67	Aaron Brooks	24.15	10/28/2001 - nor 34, ram 31	99.28%
68	Brian Sipe	23.98	10/26/1980 - cle 27, pit 26	96.68%
69	Tony Romo	23.78	10/29/2006 - dal 35, car 14	93.43%
70	Mark Rypien	23.77	12/17/1989 - was 31, atl 30	91.55%
71	Jim Plunkett	22.98	11/22/1982 - rai 28, sdg 24	95.37%
72	Chad Pennington	22.95	11/9/2003 - nyj 27, rai 24	92.99%
73	Terry Bradshaw	22.75	9/16/1979 - pit 24, crd 21	96.40%
74	Jay Cutler	22.71	11/6/2008 - den 34, cle 30	93.91%
75	Ken Stabler	22.68	12/3/1979 - rai 42, nor 35	98.31%
76	David Garrard	22.35	12/4/2005 - jax 20, cle 14	83.35%
77	Brian Griese	22.08	11/23/2003 - mia 24, was 23	94.73%
78	Elvis Grbac	21.98	11/28/1999 - kan 37, rai 34	98.39%
79	Daunte Culpepper	21.73	10/23/2005 - min 23, gnb 20	94.85%
80	Marc Bulger	21.66	10/10/2004 - ram 33, sea 27	98.94%
81	Bill Kenney	21.35	10/25/1981 - kan 28, rai 17	97.03%
82	Joe Flacco	21.31	10/30/2011 - rav 30, crd 27	89.40%
83	Lynn Dickey	21.31	9/12/1982 - gnb 35, ram 23	99.17%
84	Matt Ryan	20.82	9/18/2011 - atl 35, phi 31	93.69%
85	Tony Banks	20.63	9/10/2000 - rav 39, jax 36	93.02%
86	Doug Flutie	20.43	12/15/1986 - chi 16, det 13	86.38%
87	Bubby Brister	20.43	11/26/1989 - pit 34, mia 14	94.88%
88	Jay Fiedler	20.23	12/30/2000 - mia 23, clt 17	93.36%
89	Mike Tomczak	19.61	10/25/1992 - cle 19, nwe 17	83.88%
90	Erik Kramer	19.56	10/4/1998 - chi 31, det 27	99.12%
91	Wade Wilson	19.31	12/1/1985 - min 28, phi 23	99.98%
92	Marc Wilson	19.27	11/29/1981 - rai 32, sea 31	96.93%
93	Alex Smith	19.05	10/2/2011 - sfo 24, phi 23	98.75%
94	Chris Miller	18.67	9/18/1988 - atl 34, sfo 17	86.94%
95	Aaron Rodgers	18.38	1/15/2011 - gnb 48, atl 21	75.06%
96	Jason Campbell	18.31	10/5/2008 - was 23, phi 17	94.19%
97	Kyle Orton	18.05	10/11/2009 - den 20, nwe 17	87.94%
98	Ken Anderson	17.99	12/11/1978 - cin 20, ram 19	93.16%
99	David Woodley	17.51	11/8/1981 - mia 30, nwe 27	89.86%
100	Matt Schaub	17.39	9/19/2010 - htx 30, was 27	90.85%

{ 4 comments… read them below or add one }

Richie September 20, 2012 at 2:58 pm

10/23/2000 mia 37 @ nyj (-3) 40

Bah, I hated that game. That feels like the game that ended an era of Miami Dolphins football.

Chase Stuart September 20, 2012 at 11:09 pm: Well that’s an awfully nice thing to say.

DB September 21, 2012 at 12:35 pm

Chase – Your second table is really interesting. It’s kind of scary to me that I’ve watched and have an impression of almost every quarterback on the list. The top 20 is a nice mix 80′s,90 and 00′s players, it seems like a nice distribution. It looks like there are 4 active starting quarterbacks on the list: Peyton, Brady, Brees and Eli. Presumably Roethlisberger will join the top 10 soon.

A couple of questions on the second chart:
-How are the career comeback points calculated – I might have missed it in the math?
-What do you make of Alex Smith (93) ranking ahead of Aaron Rodgers (95) who both were drafted in 2005? Without knowing more about the stat, I was guessing it had something to do with opportunity, Rodgers sat behind Favre for 3 years, and the fact the 49ers were playing from behind more often than the Packers.

Neil September 21, 2012 at 2:41 pm

- Career comeback points are just the sum of (100% minus the “Comeback” column from table 1) for every game of a QB’s career.

So for instance, Wade Wilson was Minnesota’s QB of record in that #1-ranked game against Philly. At one point after a quarter, the Vikings’ p(W) was as low as 0.02%, yet they eventually brought it up to 100%, so that’s 99.98% points of “Win Probability Added” for the game. This means Wilson gets to add 0.9998 to his career comeback points total.

Do that for every QB since 1978, rank them by the total, and you get table 2.

- Smith already has 8 comebacks more impressive than Rodgers’ #1 comeback, but I think it is a manner of opportunity. I’m saving this for a future post, but you can break down where each QB’s teams’ WPA have come from in games where they were the primary QB:

name		games	wpa_loc	wpa_pre	wpa_1st	wpa_2nd	wpa_3rd	wpa_4th	wpa_ot
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Alex Smith	70	-0.157	-2.956	-0.394	-1.415	+4.307	+0.614	+0.000
Aaron Rodgers	70	-0.079	+8.637	+1.311	+2.997	+1.988	-1.356	-2.500

That’s denominated in WPA, which is the same as wins above average. Rodgers’ teams are +8.6 before the whistle ever blew (based on game location + initial win probability from the Vegas spread), while Smith’s are -3.1… Extend that out to the pregame + 1st half, Rodgers is +12.9; Smith is -4.9.

Smith out-does Rodgers in the 2nd half, +4.9 to -1.9, but you can see that Rodgers’ teams do such a good job of piling up WPA early in games that there isn’t a whole lot of opportunity for Rodgers to make the same types of dramatic comebacks that Smith and others have.

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The Biggest Quarter-by-Quarter Comebacks Since 1978

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