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There have been just two games this season where a quarterback averaged 12.0 Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt: Sam Bradford in week 1 (27/32, 346 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INT, 1 sack, 5 yards) when he averaged 12.15 ANY/A against the Saints, and Tom Brady in week 2 (30/39, 447, 3/0, 2-11) when he averaged 12.10 ANY/A… also against the Saints. The worst game of this early season was the stinker Andy Dalton produced against the Ravens in week 1: he went 16 of 31 for just 170 yards with 4 interceptions, and was also sacked 5 times for -26 yards. That translates to an abysmal -1.00 ANY/A, the only game with a negative ANY/A so far this year.

And while Baltimore didn’t exactly step a level up in competition in week 2, the Ravens dominated DeShone Kizer in a similar fashion: the rookie went 15/31 for 182 yards with 0 TDs and 3 INTs, while taking 2 sacks for 5 yards. That translates to just 1.27 ANY/A, the second lowest this year behind Dalton among passers with 25 attempts. In other words, it wouldn’t be much of a stretch to argue that the two best passing games of the season came against the Saints, and the two worst passing performances this year came against the Ravens.

So far this early season, quarterbacks are averaging 5.85 Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt. So Bradford, by averaging 12.15 ANY/A on 33 dropbacks, was at 6.30 ANY/A above average over 33 dropbacks, or 208 Adjusted Net Yards above average. Brady, at +6.25 ANY/A relative to league average over 41 dropbacks, was at +256. Those are two of the top three games this year:

1Tom BradyNWE@NORW 36-20230394473021112.10256
2Alex SmithKAN@NWEW 42-27128353684031611.37210
3Sam BradfordMINNORW 29-1912732346301512.15208
4Jared GoffLARINDW 46-912129306101810.60143
5Matt RyanATL@CHIW 23-17121303211021310.25141
6Derek CarrOAKNYJW 45-2022328230300010.36126
7Drew BreesNORNWEL 20-362274535620188.43119
8Philip RiversLACMIAL 17-192313933110188.58109
9Derek CarrOAK@TENW 26-1612232262202128.5391
10Drew BreesNOR@MINL 19-291273729110178.0082
11Matthew StaffordDETARIW 35-231294129241177.6274
12Alex SmithKANPHIW 27-2022128251104197.8865
13Matt RyanATLGNBW 34-2321928252103297.8462
14Ben RoethlisbergerPITMINW 26-922335243202107.3857
15Carson WentzPHI@WASW 30-171263930721297.1553
16Dak PrescottDALNYGW 19-31243926810157.0849
17Carson PalmerARI@INDW 16-1321936332114267.0347
18Jay CutlerMIA@LACW 19-172243323010257.0040
19Trevor SiemianDENDALW 42-1722232231412296.9738
20Tyrod TaylorBUFNYJW 21-121162822421267.1038
21Ben RoethlisbergerPIT@CLEW 21-181243626321186.7634
22Jacoby BrissettIND@LARL 9-4612351000017.0033
23Jared GoffLARWASL 20-2721525224112126.9329
24Jameis WinstonTAMCHIW 29-721830204102106.6927
25Marcus MariotaTEN@JAXW 37-162152721511146.6422
26Blake BortlesJAX@HOUW 29-71112112510006.9022
27Kevin HoganCLE@BALL 10-24251111811127.5821
28Cam NewtonCAR@SFOW 23-31142517121006.6420
29Tom BradyNWEKANL 27-4211636267003206.3319
30Matthew StaffordDET@NYGW 24-102152112220336.6319
31Josh McCownNYJ@OAKL 20-4521725166204216.3815
32Marcus MariotaTENOAKL 16-261254125600116.079
33Kirk CousinsWAS@LARW 27-2021827179102236.076
34Sean MannionLARINDW 46-911112000012.006
35Philip RiversLAC@DENL 21-241223319231175.881
36Ryan FitzpatrickTAMCHIW 29-7201000000.00-6
37Aaron RodgersGNB@ATLL 23-3423350343213355.72-7
38Aaron RodgersGNBSEAW 17-912842311114255.67-8
39Andy DaltonCINHOUL 9-1322035224003115.61-9
40Carson WentzPHI@KANL 20-2722546333216345.65-10
41Trevor SiemianDENLACW 24-2111728219214385.50-11
42Joe FlaccoBALCLEW 24-1022534217212165.44-14
43Joe FlaccoBAL@CINW 20-01917121111104.78-19
44Eli ManningNYGDETL 10-2422232239115314.95-33
45Russell WilsonSEA@GNBL 9-1711427158003234.50-40
46Cam NewtonCARBUFW 9-322032228006504.68-44
47Russell WilsonSEASFOW 12-922339198103174.79-45
48Mike GlennonCHI@TAML 7-2923145301121114.78-49
49Tyrod TaylorBUF@CARL 3-921725125003183.82-57
50Deshaun WatsonHOU@CINW 13-921524125003273.63-60
51Mike GlennonCHIATLL 17-2312640213104374.45-61
52DeShone KizerCLEPITL 18-2112030222117424.19-61
53Blake BortlesJAXTENL 16-3722034223122123.92-69
54Case KeenumMIN@PITL 9-2622037167002213.74-82
55Tom SavageHOUJAXL 7-29171362006331.53-82
56Kirk CousinsWASPHIL 17-3012340240114403.98-82
57Eli ManningNYG@DALL 3-1912938220013223.73-87
58Jacoby BrissettINDARIL 13-1622037216014263.54-95
59Deshaun WatsonHOUJAXL 7-2911223102114212.07-102
60Brian HoyerSFOCARL 3-2312435193014273.10-107
61Scott TolzienIND@LARL 9-461918128024290.41-120
62Brian HoyerSFO@SEAL 9-122152799012101.52-126
63Dak PrescottDAL@DENL 17-4223050238222103.42-126
64Carson PalmerARI@DETL 23-351274826813153.02-138
65Josh McCownNYJ@BUFL 12-2112639187021112.15-148
66DeShone KizerCLE@BALL 10-242153118203251.27-151
67Andy DaltonCINBALL 0-201163117004526-1.00-246

Meanwhile, Dalton and Kizer have the two worst performances of the season, with both of course coming against Baltimore.  The Ravens get Blake Bortles in week 3, while the Saints face a struggling Cam Newton.   The odds would suggest Baltimore has a better chance of keeping this streak alive. The Ravens and Saints entered this season with long-time coaches that had fallen on hard times: Sean Payton has gone 7-9 the last three years, while John Harbaugh had a losing record from 2013 to 2016. I don’t think expectations were all that high for either team entering this season, but so far, only one of these teams looks like it has another playoff run in them.

  • Deacon Drake

    Looks like Brian Hoyer is going to be more of the same this week with the Rams coming up. I would say that he loses his job, but there is no one there to take it.

  • sacramento gold miners

    Like John Harbaugh, Bill Cowher experienced tough times in the late 90s. But when you have a strong organization, the winning ways often return.

    • Daniel Menezes

      That’s actually a really nice comparison. As you said, Cowher had three straight non-playoff seasons in 1998-2000. Steelers, stuck with him and their next five seasons were 13-3, 10-5-1, 6-10, 15-1, 11-5

      The Ravens haven’t made the playoffs three out of four years since the Super Bowl win, but I don’t remember any serious question on Harbaugh’s job security.

      This start may be a mirage (the Ravens started 3-0 last year too), but it feels different this year. Plus, the offense actually looks decent.

  • Richie

    Dalton’s game against Houston seemed pretty bad, but somehow it ranks 39th on this list. I guess that’s because he managed to avoid an interception. Also, nearly half of his yards came on 3 plays. So the rest must have seemed so much worse.

    Since Baltimore’s first 2 opponents look like they could be bad teams, I’m not ready to send them to the playoffs yet. And game 3 is against Jacksonville, who we still don’t know if they are good or bad. Their next 2 games against Pittsburgh and Oakland should give us a better idea of how good they really are.

    As for the Saints, it’s sad to see Drew Brees waste away like this. He has the 7th and 10th-best games on this list, yet has trailed in his games most of the way this year, and never really looked like they had a chance to win. Their next 2 games are at Carolina and at Miami. They might be able to win those, but I doubt it. The Saints have a good chance to start off 0-6.