Ravens, Saints pass defenses on opposite ends of the spectrum

by Chase Stuart on September 20, 2017

There have been just two games this season where a quarterback averaged 12.0 Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt: Sam Bradford in week 1 (27/32, 346 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INT, 1 sack, 5 yards) when he averaged 12.15 ANY/A against the Saints, and Tom Brady in week 2 (30/39, 447, 3/0, 2-11) when he averaged 12.10 ANY/A… also against the Saints. The worst game of this early season was the stinker Andy Dalton produced against the Ravens in week 1: he went 16 of 31 for just 170 yards with 4 interceptions, and was also sacked 5 times for -26 yards. That translates to an abysmal -1.00 ANY/A, the only game with a negative ANY/A so far this year.

And while Baltimore didn’t exactly step a level up in competition in week 2, the Ravens dominated DeShone Kizer in a similar fashion: the rookie went 15/31 for 182 yards with 0 TDs and 3 INTs, while taking 2 sacks for 5 yards. That translates to just 1.27 ANY/A, the second lowest this year behind Dalton among passers with 25 attempts. In other words, it wouldn’t be much of a stretch to argue that the two best passing games of the season came against the Saints, and the two worst passing performances this year came against the Ravens.

So far this early season, quarterbacks are averaging 5.85 Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt. So Bradford, by averaging 12.15 ANY/A on 33 dropbacks, was at 6.30 ANY/A above average over 33 dropbacks, or 208 Adjusted Net Yards above average. Brady, at +6.25 ANY/A relative to league average over 41 dropbacks, was at +256. Those are two of the top three games this year:

Rk	Player	Tm	H/R	Opp	Result	Week	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	Yds	ANY/A	VALUE
1	Tom Brady	NWE	@	NOR	W 36-20	2	30	39	447	3	0	2	11	12.10	256
2	Alex Smith	KAN	@	NWE	W 42-27	1	28	35	368	4	0	3	16	11.37	210
3	Sam Bradford	MIN		NOR	W 29-19	1	27	32	346	3	0	1	5	12.15	208
4	Jared Goff	LAR		IND	W 46-9	1	21	29	306	1	0	1	8	10.60	143
5	Matt Ryan	ATL	@	CHI	W 23-17	1	21	30	321	1	0	2	13	10.25	141
6	Derek Carr	OAK		NYJ	W 45-20	2	23	28	230	3	0	0	0	10.36	126
7	Drew Brees	NOR		NWE	L 20-36	2	27	45	356	2	0	1	8	8.43	119
8	Philip Rivers	LAC		MIA	L 17-19	2	31	39	331	1	0	1	8	8.58	109
9	Derek Carr	OAK	@	TEN	W 26-16	1	22	32	262	2	0	2	12	8.53	91
10	Drew Brees	NOR	@	MIN	L 19-29	1	27	37	291	1	0	1	7	8.00	82
11	Matthew Stafford	DET		ARI	W 35-23	1	29	41	292	4	1	1	7	7.62	74
12	Alex Smith	KAN		PHI	W 27-20	2	21	28	251	1	0	4	19	7.88	65
13	Matt Ryan	ATL		GNB	W 34-23	2	19	28	252	1	0	3	29	7.84	62
14	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT		MIN	W 26-9	2	23	35	243	2	0	2	10	7.38	57
15	Carson Wentz	PHI	@	WAS	W 30-17	1	26	39	307	2	1	2	9	7.15	53
16	Dak Prescott	DAL		NYG	W 19-3	1	24	39	268	1	0	1	5	7.08	49
17	Carson Palmer	ARI	@	IND	W 16-13	2	19	36	332	1	1	4	26	7.03	47
18	Jay Cutler	MIA	@	LAC	W 19-17	2	24	33	230	1	0	2	5	7.00	40
19	Trevor Siemian	DEN		DAL	W 42-17	2	22	32	231	4	1	2	29	6.97	38
20	Tyrod Taylor	BUF		NYJ	W 21-12	1	16	28	224	2	1	2	6	7.10	38
21	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	@	CLE	W 21-18	1	24	36	263	2	1	1	8	6.76	34
22	Jacoby Brissett	IND	@	LAR	L 9-46	1	2	3	51	0	0	0	0	17.00	33
23	Jared Goff	LAR		WAS	L 20-27	2	15	25	224	1	1	2	12	6.93	29
24	Jameis Winston	TAM		CHI	W 29-7	2	18	30	204	1	0	2	10	6.69	27
25	Marcus Mariota	TEN	@	JAX	W 37-16	2	15	27	215	1	1	1	4	6.64	22
26	Blake Bortles	JAX	@	HOU	W 29-7	1	11	21	125	1	0	0	0	6.90	22
27	Kevin Hogan	CLE	@	BAL	L 10-24	2	5	11	118	1	1	1	2	7.58	21
28	Cam Newton	CAR	@	SFO	W 23-3	1	14	25	171	2	1	0	0	6.64	20
29	Tom Brady	NWE		KAN	L 27-42	1	16	36	267	0	0	3	20	6.33	19
30	Matthew Stafford	DET	@	NYG	W 24-10	2	15	21	122	2	0	3	3	6.63	19
31	Josh McCown	NYJ	@	OAK	L 20-45	2	17	25	166	2	0	4	21	6.38	15
32	Marcus Mariota	TEN		OAK	L 16-26	1	25	41	256	0	0	1	1	6.07	9
33	Kirk Cousins	WAS	@	LAR	W 27-20	2	18	27	179	1	0	2	23	6.07	6
34	Sean Mannion	LAR		IND	W 46-9	1	1	1	12	0	0	0	0	12.00	6
35	Philip Rivers	LAC	@	DEN	L 21-24	1	22	33	192	3	1	1	7	5.88	1
36	Ryan Fitzpatrick	TAM		CHI	W 29-7	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	-6
37	Aaron Rodgers	GNB	@	ATL	L 23-34	2	33	50	343	2	1	3	35	5.72	-7
38	Aaron Rodgers	GNB		SEA	W 17-9	1	28	42	311	1	1	4	25	5.67	-8
39	Andy Dalton	CIN		HOU	L 9-13	2	20	35	224	0	0	3	11	5.61	-9
40	Carson Wentz	PHI	@	KAN	L 20-27	2	25	46	333	2	1	6	34	5.65	-10
41	Trevor Siemian	DEN		LAC	W 24-21	1	17	28	219	2	1	4	38	5.50	-11
42	Joe Flacco	BAL		CLE	W 24-10	2	25	34	217	2	1	2	16	5.44	-14
43	Joe Flacco	BAL	@	CIN	W 20-0	1	9	17	121	1	1	1	10	4.78	-19
44	Eli Manning	NYG		DET	L 10-24	2	22	32	239	1	1	5	31	4.95	-33
45	Russell Wilson	SEA	@	GNB	L 9-17	1	14	27	158	0	0	3	23	4.50	-40
46	Cam Newton	CAR		BUF	W 9-3	2	20	32	228	0	0	6	50	4.68	-44
47	Russell Wilson	SEA		SFO	W 12-9	2	23	39	198	1	0	3	17	4.79	-45
48	Mike Glennon	CHI	@	TAM	L 7-29	2	31	45	301	1	2	1	11	4.78	-49
49	Tyrod Taylor	BUF	@	CAR	L 3-9	2	17	25	125	0	0	3	18	3.82	-57
50	Deshaun Watson	HOU	@	CIN	W 13-9	2	15	24	125	0	0	3	27	3.63	-60
51	Mike Glennon	CHI		ATL	L 17-23	1	26	40	213	1	0	4	37	4.45	-61
52	DeShone Kizer	CLE		PIT	L 18-21	1	20	30	222	1	1	7	42	4.19	-61
53	Blake Bortles	JAX		TEN	L 16-37	2	20	34	223	1	2	2	12	3.92	-69
54	Case Keenum	MIN	@	PIT	L 9-26	2	20	37	167	0	0	2	21	3.74	-82
55	Tom Savage	HOU		JAX	L 7-29	1	7	13	62	0	0	6	33	1.53	-82
56	Kirk Cousins	WAS		PHI	L 17-30	1	23	40	240	1	1	4	40	3.98	-82
57	Eli Manning	NYG	@	DAL	L 3-19	1	29	38	220	0	1	3	22	3.73	-87
58	Jacoby Brissett	IND		ARI	L 13-16	2	20	37	216	0	1	4	26	3.54	-95
59	Deshaun Watson	HOU		JAX	L 7-29	1	12	23	102	1	1	4	21	2.07	-102
60	Brian Hoyer	SFO		CAR	L 3-23	1	24	35	193	0	1	4	27	3.10	-107
61	Scott Tolzien	IND	@	LAR	L 9-46	1	9	18	128	0	2	4	29	0.41	-120
62	Brian Hoyer	SFO	@	SEA	L 9-12	2	15	27	99	0	1	2	10	1.52	-126
63	Dak Prescott	DAL	@	DEN	L 17-42	2	30	50	238	2	2	2	10	3.42	-126
64	Carson Palmer	ARI	@	DET	L 23-35	1	27	48	268	1	3	1	5	3.02	-138
65	Josh McCown	NYJ	@	BUF	L 12-21	1	26	39	187	0	2	1	11	2.15	-148
66	DeShone Kizer	CLE	@	BAL	L 10-24	2	15	31	182	0	3	2	5	1.27	-151
67	Andy Dalton	CIN		BAL	L 0-20	1	16	31	170	0	4	5	26	-1.00	-246

Meanwhile, Dalton and Kizer have the two worst performances of the season, with both of course coming against Baltimore. The Ravens get Blake Bortles in week 3, while the Saints face a struggling Cam Newton. The odds would suggest Baltimore has a better chance of keeping this streak alive. The Ravens and Saints entered this season with long-time coaches that had fallen on hard times: Sean Payton has gone 7-9 the last three years, while John Harbaugh had a losing record from 2013 to 2016. I don’t think expectations were all that high for either team entering this season, but so far, only one of these teams looks like it has another playoff run in them.

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