Smith was the better player — he was an 11-time Pro Bowler and an 8-time AP first-team All-Pro, compared to just 5/2 for Greene — and consequently was a clear first-ballot Hall of Famer. For whatever reason, it took Greene 12 years, but this summer, he will finally be inducted into the Hall. Given the fact that Smith has 25% more career sacks than Greene, you probably think that Smith was the better pass rusher. To that, the Gray Ink test says not so fast, my friend. [click to continue…]
In April, I looked at how each defense fared at recording sacks. Today, we flip things around and look at it from the offensive perspective.
In 2014, there were 17,879 pass attempts in the NFL, and another 1,212 dropbacks that ended up as quarterback sacks, translating to a sack rate of 6.35%.
Peyton Manning offenses are always excellent, and they’re always particularly excellent at avoiding sacks. In 2014, the Broncos had 624 dropbacks; given the league average, we would “expect” that Denver’s quarterbacks would have been sacked 39.6 times. In reality, Manning was sacked just 17 times, of 22.6 fewer sacks than “expected” last season. Only one other team, the Joe Flacco and the Ravens at 17.4, had 15 fewer sacks than expectation.
The worst team, by over 10 expected sacks, was Jacksonville. The Jaguars had 628 dropbacks and were sacked an incredible 71 times. Using the league average as our guide, we would have expected Blake Bortles and the Jaguars quarterbacks to have been sacked 38.4 times, which means the Jaguars were sacked 31.1 more times than “expectation.” [click to continue…]
Since the sack became an official statistic in 1982, the record for percentage of team sacks by an individual player was set by right outside linebacker Tim Harris on the 1989 Packers. Green Bay ran a 3-4 defense under Hank Bullough, and Harris had 19.5 of the team’s 34 sacks. That means 57.4% of all sacks by Packers players that year came from Harris; no other Green Bay player had more than three sacks.
Aldon Smith had 19.5 sacks, too, playing on the 2012 49ers. Last year, San Francisco recorded 38 team sacks, meaning Smith — playing that same ROLB position in the 3-4 defense — had 51.3% of his team’s sacks. Two other players recorded exactly half of their team’s sacks. In 1984, when Mark Gastineau (playing at left defensive end in New York’s 4-3 defense) set the sack record, he recorded 22 of the Jets 44 total sacks. Fifteen years later, Football Perspective All Underrated star Simeon Rice (who lined up at right defensive end) had 16.5 of the Cardinals 33 sacks.
Mathis was a star 4-3 defensive end, but he’s already matched his single-season career high in sacks. He’s having perhaps his best season playing as rush linebacker in the system devised by Greg Manusky and Chuck Pagano. And his numbers look even better as a percentage of team sacks. Below are the top 50 leaders from 1982 to 2012 in percentage of team sacks, which is a cut-off deep enough to bring in another Robert Mathis season:
[click to continue…]
I’ve got sacks on the mind today. A few hours ago, I looked at the single-season sack records by various players in both the 3-4 and 4-3. Today I also want to look at things from the team perspective. In 2012, which team is the best at getting to the quarterback? You might think that’s as simple as looking at a list of defensive statistics and sorting by sacks, but I’d like to take a more nuanced approach.
There are two factors that heavily impact a team’s sack rate: the opponents they face and the number of passing plays they defend. Using sack rate instead of sacks helps to solve the latter issue, but we still need an opponent adjustment even if we use sack rate. It’s a bit tricky doing it correctly, because you need to iterate the results just like you do with the SRS. What I mean by that is the sack rate of the Denver defense will need to be adjusted for the sack rate of the Kansas City, Oakland, and San Diego offenses (among other teams), and those will need to be adjusted for the Denver defense (and all the other defenses those teams faced).
Once you properly iterate the results, what are the results? The table below shows the top defenses this year at getting to the quarterback, although note that these numbers exclude the games from week 15. The table shows how many pass attempts each team has faced, the number of actual sacks they have recorded and their actual sack rate; the next column shows the SOS adjustment to the sack rate, with a positive number indicating a difficult strength of schedule (i.e., they’ve faced teams that are difficult to sack). The last two columns show the SOS-adjusted sack rates and total sacks.
|Rk||Team||ATT||ACT SK||SK RT||SOS||ADJ SK RT||ADJ SK|
The tables below show the single-season leaders by various defensive players in 3-4 and 4-3 schemes from 1982 to 2011.
Let’s start with a look at the most sacks by a 3-4 defensive end:
|1990||BUF||Bruce Smith||3-4 DE||19|
|1983||SFO||Fred Dean||3-4 DE||17.5|
|1984||PHI||Greg Brown||3-4 DE||16|
|1983||MIA||Doug Betters||3-4 DE||16|
|1983||SEA||Jacob Green||3-4 DE||16|
|1992||NOR||Wayne Martin||3-4 DE||15.5|
|1986||RAI||Sean Jones||3-4 DE||15.5|
|1985||NYG||Leonard Marshall||3-4 DE||15.5|
|1993||KAN||Neil Smith||3-4 DE||15|
|1986||SDG||Lee Williams||3-4 DE||15|
|1986||BUF||Bruce Smith||3-4 DE||15|
|1984||KAN||Art Still||3-4 DE||14.5|
|1984||SEA||Jeff Bryant||3-4 DE||14.5|
|1983||GNB||Ezra Johnson||3-4 DE||14.5|
|1997||BUF||Bruce Smith||3-4 DE||14|
|1993||BUF||Bruce Smith||3-4 DE||14|
|1992||BUF||Bruce Smith||3-4 DE||14|
|1989||SDG||Lee Williams||3-4 DE||14|
|1984||MIA||Doug Betters||3-4 DE||14|
|1984||CLE||Reggie Camp||3-4 DE||14|
|1983||PIT||Keith Willis||3-4 DE||14|
As you can imagine, 3-4 defensive linemen don’t rack up many sacks. Bill Pickel, a nose tackle for the Raiders in the ’80s, recorded 12.5 sacks in both ’84 and ’85, making him the only 3-4 tackle to record more than 12 sacks in a season. Karl Mecklenburg, with 13 sacks for the Broncos in ’85, remains the only inside linebacker in a 3-4 with more than a dozen sacks.
Of course, 3-4 outside linebackers get all the glory in that scheme. San Francisco’s Aldon Smith has 19.5 sacks so far in 2012 with two games remaining, but here were the leaders prior to 2012:
|1986||NYG||Lawrence Taylor||3-4 OLB||20.5|
|2008||DAL||DeMarcus Ware||3-4 OLB||20|
|1990||KAN||Derrick Thomas||3-4 OLB||20|
|2011||DAL||DeMarcus Ware||3-4 OLB||19.5|
|1989||GNB||Tim Harris||3-4 OLB||19.5|
|1984||NWE||Andre Tippett||3-4 OLB||18.5|
|2008||MIA||Joey Porter||3-4 OLB||17.5|
|1995||BUF||Bryce Paup||3-4 OLB||17.5|
|2009||DEN||Elvis Dumervil||3-4 OLB||17|
|2006||SDG||Shawne Merriman||3-4 OLB||17|
|1992||SFO||Tim Harris||3-4 OLB||17|
|1991||NOR||Pat Swilling||3-4 OLB||17|
|1989||NOR||Pat Swilling||3-4 OLB||16.5|
|1989||RAM||Kevin Greene||3-4 OLB||16.5|
|1988||RAM||Kevin Greene||3-4 OLB||16.5|
|1985||NWE||Andre Tippett||3-4 OLB||16.5|
|2008||PIT||James Harrison||3-4 OLB||16|
|1992||DEN||Simon Fletcher||3-4 OLB||16|
|1990||SFO||Charles Haley||3-4 OLB||16|
|2010||DAL||DeMarcus Ware||3-4 OLB||15.5|
|1988||NYG||Lawrence Taylor||3-4 OLB||15.5|
|1998||CAR||Kevin Greene||3-4 OLB||15|
|1989||NYG||Lawrence Taylor||3-4 OLB||15|
|1984||PIT||Mike Merriweather||3-4 OLB||15|
What about 4-3 defensive ends?
|2001||NYG||Michael Strahan||4-3 DE||22.5|
|2011||MIN||Jared Allen||4-3 DE||22|
|1984||NYJ||Mark Gastineau||4-3 DE||22|
|1989||MIN||Chris Doleman||4-3 DE||21|
|1987||PHI||Reggie White||4-3 DE||21|
|1992||PHI||Clyde Simmons||4-3 DE||19|
|1983||NYJ||Mark Gastineau||4-3 DE||19|
|2003||NYG||Michael Strahan||4-3 DE||18.5|
|2002||MIA||Jason Taylor||4-3 DE||18.5|
|1986||WAS||Dexter Manley||4-3 DE||18.5|
|2011||PHI||Jason Babin||4-3 DE||18|
|1988||PHI||Reggie White||4-3 DE||18|
|1984||CHI||Richard Dent||4-3 DE||17.5|
|1999||STL||Kevin Carter||4-3 DE||17|
|1992||SDG||Leslie O'Neal||4-3 DE||17|
|1985||CHI||Richard Dent||4-3 DE||17|
|2011||NYG||Jason Pierre-Paul||4-3 DE||16.5|
|2008||ATL||John Abraham||4-3 DE||16.5|
|2000||MIA||Trace Armstrong||4-3 DE||16.5|
|1999||ARI||Simeon Rice||4-3 DE||16.5|
|1998||SEA||Michael Sinclair||4-3 DE||16.5|
|2005||OAK||Derrick Burgess||4-3 DE||16|
|2004||IND||Dwight Freeney||4-3 DE||16|
|1998||GNB||Reggie White||4-3 DE||16|
|1983||STL||Curtis Greer||4-3 DE||16|
And 4-3 defensive tackles:
|1989||MIN||Keith Millard||4-3 DT||18|
|1986||PHI||Reggie White||4-3 DT||18|
|2000||NOR||La'Roi Glover||4-3 DT||17|
|2000||TAM||Warren Sapp||4-3 DT||16.5|
|1997||MIN||John Randle||4-3 DT||15.5|
|1997||SFO||Dana Stubblefield||4-3 DT||15|
|1992||SEA||Cortez Kennedy||4-3 DT||14|
4-3 outside linebackers rarely rack up huge sack numbers. In fact, Denver’s Von Miller, who has 16 sacks this year, is already the record holder in the official sack era. Derrick Thomas (14.5 sacks in 1992, 13 in 1996) in Kansas City, Washington’s Ken Harvey (13.5 in ’94) and Cleveland’s Jamir Miller (13 in ’01) are the only other 4-3 outside linebackers with more than twelve sacks in a season since 1982. (Of course, Thomas also had a 20-sack season a 3-4 outside linebacker.) Charlie Clemons, with 13.5 sacks in 2001, is the record holder among 4-3 middle linebackers.
Thirty years ago, the NFL began officially recording defensive player sacks. Prior to 1982, all teams kept their own individual sack data, but those records (with few exceptions) have never been verified. As a result, it’s an unfortunate reality that for much of NFL history, we simply do not have reliable sack data for individual defensive players.
Three times, Deacon Jones produced 20+ unofficial sacks in the 1960s.1 In 1967, Raiders defensive end Ben Davidson had 17 sacks2 in the AFL. Jack Youngblood and Jim Katcavage both led the league in sacks on two different occasions in the pre-1982 era.3 Cincinnati Bengal Coy Bacon has been credited with 21.5 unofficial sacks during in 1976. The first team to record 60 sacks in a season was the ’57 Bears, and we can be sure that Doug Atkins recorded more than his fair share of that number. For players like Gino Marchetti, Norm Willey, and Len Ford, even unofficial records weren’t kept during their time, leaving us unsure as to who is the true sack king.
It’s important to remember that just because we don’t have official sack data before 1982 doesn’t mean there were great sack artists before then. But that’s a topic for another today. So while we can’t precisely measure how the forefathers of the game played, we do have official data for the last 30 years. So who has been the best pass rusher of the last three decades?
Using total sacks isn’t a fair method to current players, or to those players who chose to retire instead of sticking around to compile six-sack seasons. So if we want to measure sack dominance, we can’t simply look at total sacks any more than we can grade running backs by looking at career rushing yards. One method I like that I’ve used before is sacks over one-half sack per game. This makes 8 sacks in a 16-game season the bar; a player only gets credit for their production over that level. This means that 12 sacks in a 16-game season brings a value of +4.00, while 16 sacks is twice as valuable at +8.00.There’s no great reason to choose 8 over 6 or 10 or any other number. I chose 8 because it feels right, but I don’t claim that it’s based on anything other than my personal, subjective preference.
When thinking about the 2012 Cowboys, it’s easy to focus on Dallas’ star offensive players. Unfortunately, that overshadows the fact that we’re witnessing the prime of the career of what will end up being the best 3-4 outside linebacker in the history of pro football.
There is nothing DeMarcus Ware could have done, or could do in the future, to convince most football fans that he ranks ahead of Lawrence Taylor in any all-time list. That’s not unique to Taylor; some would find it unfathomable to vault a cover corner over Deion Sanders, a middle linebacker over Dick Butkus, or a running back over Jim Brown. So let’s just get that out of the way. To many, ‘LT’ is the best 3-4 outside linebacker ever (if not best linebacker or defensive player, period) and that will never change. To them, this post won’t change your mind one bit. To others, allow me to make the case that when he retires, Ware will have been the best player to ever play his position.
The 3-4 defense didn’t enter the NFL until 1974, when the scheme was brought to Houston, Buffalo and New England. Putting aside Taylor, the best outside linebackers to play in this scheme include names like Robert Brazile, Tom Jackson, Ted Hendricks, Clay Matthews, Andre Tippett, New Orleans’ Rickey Jackson and Pat Swilling, Kevin Greene, Greg Lloyd, Cornelius Bennett and Derrick Thomas. In today’s game, it’s probably Ware and Terrell Suggs, who also splits his time playing as a 4-3 end. With all due respect to Suggs, and other active stars like Tamba Hali, LaMarr Woodley and James Harrison, Aldon Smith, Clay Matthews and Cameron Wake, no current player has the body of work to compare to Ware.
The Cowboys star has been named an AP first-team All-Pro four times; among 3-4 outside linebackers, only Taylor has more selections. Taylor (10), Robert Brazile (7), Rickey Jackson (6) and Ware are the only 3-4 linebackers to have been named to six Pro Bowls, and Ware has been a selection in each of the last six years. Ultimately, outside of perhaps a vocal minority that would argue for Derrick Thomas over Taylor (and more on that tomorrow), Ware’s case as the best 3-4 outside linebacker of all-time comes down to whether you could put him ahead of Taylor as a player1.
- Taylor’s legend appears to grow every year, and as a mythical or historical figure, Ware stands no chance of surpassing him. [↩]